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Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

Ynglaur posted:

Wait T-72s don't have gun stabilization? :psyduck: I knew their optics sucked compared to modern NATO MBTs but I assumed they at least had gun stabilization. Even the M60A1 had basic stabilization, and the M60A3 had better.

https://youtu.be/VjhO_P0vRzE

Even the post you quoted says they have stabilisation, just the export models didn't have the better stabiliser.

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Hannibal Rex
Feb 13, 2010

Tbh, writing up a 20 part twitter thread based on "unconfirmed reports" means this guy has too much time on his hands and is trawling for likes and subscribes. Par for the course for a retired general, I guess.

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

Russian bombardments have slowed.

Villages are being liberated North of Kharkiv

It's fine time for a counter offensives front wide.

North Kharkiv: https://t.me/vekha/37364

https://t.me/chanel24/37693


My earlier theory was combat power would dry up in a week or so. Seems like this is occuring in conjunction with weak territorial gains.

Russia is going to have a may 9th victory parade as Ukraine is liberating Kherson.

Here's to hoping ONE switchblade drops a bomb in the middle of the military parade. And preferably kills no civilians just an armata tank or two.

Just as a "yeah your government is bullshitting you no where is safe. "

Djarum
Apr 1, 2004

by vyelkin

jaete posted:

How likely is it that US aid will include stuff like F-16s or long-range anti-air missile systems or other "big deal" items?

I assume they will be coming in the future. As I said before I would be amazed if Ukraine didn't have people being trained on NATO systems they were looking to be getting in the early days in the war. The big hurdle is training all the ground crew/maintenance staff on the airframe. The pilots can adapt fairly quickly, though you want to spend more time in training to get them comfortable with the different capabilities and strengths/weaknesses of it. The F-16 takes some getting used to if you have never flown it, for example the stick on the right side instead of between the legs like almost every other airframe ever made. You are also leaned back a TON. Most people says it feels like you are flying in a Lay-Z-Boy. It all takes adjustment.

Ynglaur
Oct 9, 2013

The Malta Conference, anyone?

the popes toes posted:

Euromaidan not a particularly good source, but if true, it's significant
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPR/status/1520013432803799041?cxt=HHwWgsC9wb2KlpgqAAAA

Why are two more Russian jets being shot down significant? (Airframes are not my specialty.)

Also thanks for the up-thread corrections re: T-72 stabilization. I clearly didn't read the OP closely enough.

Heck Yes! Loam!
Nov 15, 2004

a rich, friable soil containing a relatively equal mixture of sand and silt and a somewhat smaller proportion of clay.

WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:

Russian bombardments have slowed.

Villages are being liberated North of Kharkiv

It's fine time for a counter offensives front wide.

North Kharkiv: https://t.me/vekha/37364

https://t.me/chanel24/37693


My earlier theory was combat power would dry up in a week or so. Seems like this is occuring in conjunction with weak territorial gains.

Russia is going to have a may 9th victory parade as Ukraine is liberating Kherson.

Here's to hoping ONE switchblade drops a bomb in the middle of the military parade. And preferably kills no civilians just an armata tank or two.

Just as a "yeah your government is bullshitting you no where is safe. "

Does Ukraine even have a platform that can reach Moscow? Also, switchblade's don't seem to drop bombs, they're just a bomb with a drone attached.

mobby_6kl
Aug 9, 2009

by Fluffdaddy

Ynglaur posted:

Why are two more Russian jets being shot down significant? (Airframes are not my specialty.)

Also thanks for the up-thread corrections re: T-72 stabilization. I clearly didn't read the OP closely enough.
Jets are expensive
Pilots are expensive
Russia doesn't have an infinite number of either
Fewer bombs dropped on Ukraine


It's not :tviv: like sinking Moskva but very good news

PC LOAD LETTER
May 23, 2005
WTF?!

Ynglaur posted:

Why are two more Russian jets being shot down significant? (Airframes are not my specialty.)

They can't really replace the planes or pilots in any vaguely sensible time frame and even when they do eventually manage to do so (years from now) it'll be for terribly high costs.

Like even the US would feel some pain paying for replacements that get shot down. For Russia, which has a much smaller budget, its a crippling loss. Possibly doubly so if replacements require embargoed components.

Heck Yes! Loam! posted:

Also, switchblade's don't seem to drop bombs, they're just a bomb with a drone attached.

Theres 2 switchblade versions.

The small disposable one is the suicide drone that is single use.

The bigger one (Switchblade 600) can launch Javelins and stuff.

PC LOAD LETTER fucked around with this message at 15:27 on Apr 29, 2022

Pablo Bluth
Sep 7, 2007

I've made a huge mistake.
Also nine su-34 have been documented as destroyed so far in two months. Two more in quick succession is notable just for that.

Djarum
Apr 1, 2004

by vyelkin

Ynglaur posted:

Why are two more Russian jets being shot down significant? (Airframes are not my specialty.)


Su-34s are the most advanced airframe Russia is fielding in the conflict, they are basically the Russian version of the F-15E Strike Eagle. A tactical bomber that has significant air to air capabilities. They only had about 130 before the conflict started and have lost around a dozen that are confirmed. Each one is a major loss for them that they can not replace.

gay picnic defence
Oct 5, 2009


I'M CONCERNED ABOUT A NUMBER OF THINGS

alex314 posted:

If it's KIA, seriously wounded and captured then it looks believable. I wish someone would hit servers of Wagner Group (or whatever they are called now) and other PMCs and find their numbers. I have nagging feeling both mercs and militias are outside of those 14k KIA claims we've seen ~2 weeks ago.
Some Russian in an intercepted phone call was saying the number KIA is 26k, make of that what you will.

Ynglaur posted:

Why are two more Russian jets being shot down significant? (Airframes are not my specialty.)

Also thanks for the up-thread corrections re: T-72 stabilization. I clearly didn't read the OP closely enough.

Those things are $40mil a pop or something stupid like that. There was only 120 or so built so that’s like 2% of their most modern strike aircraft shot down, and probably 10% of number of that type currently combat ready and able to be committed to this conflict. Another two were shot down earlier in the week too.

PC LOAD LETTER posted:


The bigger one (Switchblade 600) can launch Javelins and stuff.

The switchblade 600 has a tandem shaped charge warhead like the javelin, it doesn’t launch missiles. Think of it as a javelin with wings, 4 hours flight time and a 50km range.

gay picnic defence fucked around with this message at 15:36 on Apr 29, 2022

Barrel Cactaur
Oct 6, 2021

NTRabbit posted:

Though actually held back to ensure there's enough military strength to rapidly put down a riot/coup attempt in Moscow

A tank on parade only needs external equipment cases, turret raise and traverse, and to move (on parade specific rubberized treads no less)

A lot can be missing from the parade unit.

Atreiden
May 4, 2008

Pro Russian Account ZOKA tries to pass off old photos as new.
https://twitter.com/200_zoka/status/1519985236339306497
https://twitter.com/200_zoka/status/1519987106831122433
https://twitter.com/DarthPutinKGB/status/1520017480084856832

PC LOAD LETTER
May 23, 2005
WTF?!

gay picnic defence posted:

The switchblade 600 has a tandem shaped charge warhead like the javelin, it doesn’t launch missiles. Think of it as a javelin with wings, 4 hours flight time and a 50km range.

Woops! Thanks for the correction

gay picnic defence
Oct 5, 2009


I'M CONCERNED ABOUT A NUMBER OF THINGS
Even if those Polish T72s are poo poo they’ll probably just fine for invading Transnistria if they try to start poo poo.

Fornax Disaster
Apr 11, 2005

If you need me I'll be in Holodeck Four.
Poland’s T-72s are in the middle of an upgrade program with improvements being made to targeting and coms.

https://euro-sd.com/2019/08/news/14250/polish-t-72-mbts-will-be-upgraded/

MassiveSky
Apr 5, 2022

by Hand Knit

gay picnic defence posted:

Even if those Polish T72s are poo poo they’ll probably just fine for invading Transnistria if they try to start poo poo.

Still, they don't have that chodeham armor that confuses hungry Russians.

PederP
Nov 20, 2009

mobby_6kl posted:

Jets are expensive
Pilots are expensive
Russia doesn't have an infinite number of either
Fewer bombs dropped on Ukraine


It's not :tviv: like sinking Moskva but very good news

The propaganda effect of sinking the Moskva is massively larger, but I wouldn't be surprised if the battlefield effect and reduced civilian casualties/destruction is greater from the two jets.

Atreiden
May 4, 2008

https://twitter.com/StratcomCentre/status/1520053054355263490
https://twitter.com/StratcomCentre/status/1520053058184663040

ummel
Jun 17, 2002

<3 Lowtax

Fun Shoe
Very :nms: Drone munition dropped directly into the sunroof of an armored Russian vehicle. Very zoomed in aftermath from the drone, so cut the video short if you want to avoid that.

"Ukrainian military 92 separate mechanized brigade, named after chieftain Ivan Syrko, threw a projectile from a drone right into the hatch of a car with Russian soldiers."


code:
https://twitter.com/Flash43191300/status/1520030398650195968
What a shot though, my god. Drones are ridiculous.

Risky Bisquick
Jan 18, 2008

PLEASE LET ME WRITE YOUR VICTIM IMPACT STATEMENT SO I CAN FURTHER DEMONSTRATE THE CALAMITY THAT IS OUR JUSTICE SYSTEM.



Buglord

Ynglaur posted:

Why are two more Russian jets being shot down significant? (Airframes are not my specialty.)

Also thanks for the up-thread corrections re: T-72 stabilization. I clearly didn't read the OP closely enough.
Continued airframe losses speak volumes about the ability of the RU forces to project air power over the LOC let alone the theatre. RU has been trying to show some images of SEAD/ARM weaponry on their aircrafts and the fact they continue to lose modern airframes is humiliating. We've seen just yesterday images of a pair RU frogfoot flying at 50-100 ft over the ground because of the persistent threat of air defense.

On top of the humiliation mentioned above, there are also significant consequences to these losses. The ZSU has been reported to have trucked out key systems that survived some of the shootdowns and have delivered it to the US for study. The Flanker and Fullback being dissected will significantly impact their ability to engage with NATO who will no longer have a hypothetical analysis of their capabilities.

Young Freud
Nov 26, 2006

WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:

Russian bombardments have slowed.

Villages are being liberated North of Kharkiv

It's fine time for a counter offensives front wide.

North Kharkiv: https://t.me/vekha/37364

https://t.me/chanel24/37693


My earlier theory was combat power would dry up in a week or so. Seems like this is occuring in conjunction with weak territorial gains.

Russia is going to have a may 9th victory parade as Ukraine is liberating Kherson.

Here's to hoping ONE switchblade drops a bomb in the middle of the military parade. And preferably kills no civilians just an armata tank or two.

Just as a "yeah your government is bullshitting you no where is safe. "

As much as it would be great to blow up an Armata with a smuggled Switchblade in the middle of the Victory Parade, Putin himself will be in attendance, unless he becomes very paranoid about assassination. Feel like it would be a hard choice for an Ukrainian commando team to get away with humiliating Putin or end this whole thing early.

with a rebel yell she QQd
Jan 18, 2007

Villain


Today I have a battered van parked right in front of my gate with Ukrainian license plate and an A4 paper duct taped to its side that says "I'm from Mariupol".

Risky Bisquick
Jan 18, 2008

PLEASE LET ME WRITE YOUR VICTIM IMPACT STATEMENT SO I CAN FURTHER DEMONSTRATE THE CALAMITY THAT IS OUR JUSTICE SYSTEM.



Buglord
Extremely :nws: :nms: RU Tiktok gone wrong recording tiktok in selfie gets hit with an artillery or shoulder fired round extremely close, absolutely no way they survived
code:
https://twitter.com/CanadianUkrain1/status/1520039182294466562

quote:

Our first main goal was fulfilled. Fulfilled with an A+ mark. We have three 300's ...

Risky Bisquick fucked around with this message at 16:31 on Apr 29, 2022

PerilPastry
Oct 10, 2012
Good thread on Russia's lessons so far and how they seem to reverting to their doctrinal reliance on artillery but how this approach is still hampered by a number of factors ... such as using maps dating back to the 1970s.

https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1520050211367931906?s=20&t=ZjvVvwydTuKHCWQxReblkQ

Tigey
Apr 6, 2015

Ynglaur posted:

Why are two more Russian jets being shot down significant? (Airframes are not my specialty.)

The impact is also not just the loss of the individual airframes (although as others have said, the SU-34s are some of Russia's best, they don't have in huge numbers, and they can't really replace losses currently).

Equally as important is the deterrence effect it has on wider Russian air operations. The fact Ukrainian heavy SAMs are still a threat means the Russians have to modify their tactics, requiring them to either fly low (thus rendering them more vulnerable to MANPADS and telephone poles), take longer, indirect routes to their targets to bypass the SAMs (thus spending more time in the air consuming more fuel, putting more wear on the airframe and increasing maintenance needed) or to avoid getting in close entirely, and resort to using their increasingly limited long-range PGMs.

All of these degrade the performance of the remaining Russian Airforce at a critical, potentially decisive point in their Donbass offensive.

Dapper_Swindler
Feb 14, 2012

Im glad my instant dislike in you has been validated again and again.

Risky Bisquick posted:

Extremely :nws: :nms: RU Tiktok gone wrong recording tiktok in selfie gets hit with an artillery or shoulder fired round extremely close, absolutely no way they survived
code:
https://twitter.com/CanadianUkrain1/status/1520039182294466562

this dude one of them kaydrovs? his uniform looked nice enough.

Risky Bisquick
Jan 18, 2008

PLEASE LET ME WRITE YOUR VICTIM IMPACT STATEMENT SO I CAN FURTHER DEMONSTRATE THE CALAMITY THAT IS OUR JUSTICE SYSTEM.



Buglord
Yes, there was an Allahu Ackbar at the very end. Cargo 200 + the person in front and behind at the very least.

Dapper_Swindler
Feb 14, 2012

Im glad my instant dislike in you has been validated again and again.

Risky Bisquick posted:

Yes, there was an Allahu Ackbar at the very end. Cargo 200 + the person in front and behind at the very least.

so those assholes are in warzones. i am surprised i haven't seen more of this kinda poo poo then.

Rad Russian
Aug 15, 2007

Soviet Power Supreme!

Risky Bisquick posted:

Yes, there was an Allahu Ackbar at the very end. Cargo 200 + the person in front and behind at the very least.

Kadyrovites are all daily vblogging to telegram like they're college girls on their first trip to Europe. Very few videos from any other Russian soldiers there, unless it's from a propaganda reporter showing them handing out food or burning Nazi flags.

My guess is Russian command has strict orders not to film anything not going through a propaganda filter, but have 0 control over Kadyrov's goons.

Rad Russian fucked around with this message at 16:46 on Apr 29, 2022

Risky Bisquick
Jan 18, 2008

PLEASE LET ME WRITE YOUR VICTIM IMPACT STATEMENT SO I CAN FURTHER DEMONSTRATE THE CALAMITY THAT IS OUR JUSTICE SYSTEM.



Buglord
:nms: JIC, I didn't watch 90 minutes.

Long interview with Belarussian Ultras, mustache guy is sort of famous now. He got banned on TikTok yesterday :v:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LwLaJbNOqYU

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

Young Freud posted:

As much as it would be great to blow up an Armata with a smuggled Switchblade in the middle of the Victory Parade, Putin himself will be in attendance, unless he becomes very paranoid about assassination. Feel like it would be a hard choice for an Ukrainian commando team to get away with humiliating Putin or end this whole thing early.

Either would be excellent. I mean Putin getting smoked by a Ukrainian drone would honestly be the most Russia.jpg option in terms of his desires to create a new empire.

mobby_6kl
Aug 9, 2009

by Fluffdaddy

Young Freud posted:

As much as it would be great to blow up an Armata with a smuggled Switchblade in the middle of the Victory Parade, Putin himself will be in attendance, unless he becomes very paranoid about assassination. Feel like it would be a hard choice for an Ukrainian commando team to get away with humiliating Putin or end this whole thing early.



I mean Putin won't even need the 600, the little baby one would do just fine, as a treat.

alex314
Nov 22, 2007

There will be a fuckton of jammers in place, probably heavy AA hardware, and Put himself will be behind armoured glass. Of course it would be completely hilarious if he was mowed down by SPAAG al-Sadat style..

Discendo Vox
Mar 21, 2013

This does not make sense when, again, aggregate indicia also indicate improvements. The belief that things are worse is false. It remains false.
Technically I do think the parade is a sort of tank convoy, so regardless of threats to putin, we know it's an appealing target...on the other hand, given how recent ones have gone, there's little reason for the Ukrainians to waste the resources when they'll probably break down on their own.

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

Discendo Vox posted:

Technically I do think the parade is a sort of tank convoy, so regardless of threats to putin, we know it's an appealing target...on the other hand, given how recent ones have gone, there's little reason for the Ukrainians to waste the resources when they'll probably break down on their own.

Thank you for failing to realize that hitting the tank parade isn't the objective. the objective would be to show the people that nothing is safe and the government is lying. Blowing up an armata in the middle of red square would mean the government has to go "oh well uh that's a malfunction definitely not a terrorist attack"

-not gonna continue the blow up a tank derail after this post

WAR CRIME GIGOLO fucked around with this message at 17:19 on Apr 29, 2022

the popes toes
Oct 10, 2004

:nms: due to demise of innocent rockets
https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1520042517382766592?cxt=HHwWgIC5wbano5gqAAAA

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009
https://twitter.com/SimonOstrovsky/status/1519750231432339458

So this is sort of important background to the conflict, though the article kinda overemphasizes the intellectual elites.. though it is rather hard to capture opinions of regular people reliably...

CommieGIR
Aug 22, 2006

The blue glow is a feature, not a bug


Pillbug

That's artillery that won't be going down range anymore.

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catfry
Oct 9, 2012

by Azathoth
Ukrainian products are being exported through rail lines to Romanian ports. The first shipment since the start of the war has been loaded on a ship in Constanta, Romania. Ever since the blockade of Ukrainian ports, companies have been working to find alternatives. According to this article though, the potential of existing raillines is only 10% of seagoing vessels, proving a serious bottleneck. the issue is among others that there is a change of rail gauge, resulting in time consuming reloading.

https://www.spglobal.com/commodityi...-ukrlandfarming

(use 12ft.io if paywall is up)

However if Romania is serious about these proposals mentioned below, among them rehabilitating the broad gauge rail between the Danube port city of Galati and the Moldovan border, and if trains can be allowed through Moldova AND transnistria, that would greatly help ease the blockade.

https://www-economica-net.translate...&_x_tr_pto=wapp
(free to read)

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