|
Saladman posted:FWIW this kind of thing is happening in Europe too. Probably not to the extent as in Russia, but nevertheless: For those eating bio food, the priority is not the environment. eeee, did not mean to snipe, speaking of shortages, evidently 70% of explosives and similar amount of fertilizer for West Africa came out of Russia. So not only is their less grain but less capacity to grow locally on top of the higher fuel prices. Electric Wrigglies fucked around with this message at 13:02 on May 30, 2022 |
#
?
May 30, 2022 12:55
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 31, 2024 21:37 |
|
|
The doomer crying that Ukraine is getting nothing from NATO is deeply silly. With the US opening the free money (not loans!) taps to the tune of $40 billion or whatever plus Lend-Lease to make up any gaps, the real limitation is figuring out how to get the most firepower to Ukraine through a large but finite logistics pipeline. I think I've beaten this drum more than once. Which is, uh, MLRS and HIMARS. The entire Russian strategy is indiscriminately shelling static positions using static artillery parks supplied from static railheads. That becomes nonviable if Ukraine suddenly gains long range, mobile, precision rocket artillery in quantity. Germany being dipshits about Ukraine sucks but it's a footnote in the big picture. Their military has been kind of rear end by NATO standards for a while TBH, and has less capability to give away than people seem to assume.
|
|
#
?
May 30, 2022 12:56
|
|
|
Djarum posted:No, it is not. It is no different than what is being done now with NATO AWACS and other assets feeding information to Ukraine already. Having radar/satellite data doesn't "paint a laser designator". Having systems that can more easily use the data that is coming isn't an "open deflation of war". Don't make random assumptions and hyperbole unless you know what you are talking about. We're talking about using NATO AWACS or surface radar to provide real time data to Ukrainian fighter planes, which will use this data to fire missiles without turning on their onboard radar. It's completely different level than relaying through some channel "hey, we've noticed 2 birds 100 km north of point x at 12:00 heading SSE" which UA would need to locate and target themselves.
|
|
#
?
May 30, 2022 13:02
|
|
|
You don't know what information NATO is providing ATM and how is processed. Can be the same deal for their artillery targeting, which wouldn't be qualitatively different, imo. Anyway, they don't have F-16s and aren't getting F-16s so?
|
|
#
?
May 30, 2022 13:03
|
|
|
Atreiden posted:Everything is going according to the plan. Pulling the pin on a grenade and daring a general to shoot you for disobedience is pretty loving nuts.  I kind of want to know now how that is going to develop. If the general does nothing, disobedience might spread further, but reprisals, even quiet ones, might cause all hell to break loose if the troops feel cornered enough to do this.
|
|
#
?
May 30, 2022 13:09
|
|
|
Greggster posted:To me it feels like magic (deadly, deadly magic) to be able to shoot actual shells those distances, at what range do you start to need to calculate in the roundness of Earth? Back in WWI there were cannon that could shoot around 130km. The aiming was ridiculous because of not only the distance but they had to do a lot of compensation for coriolis (rotation of the Earth). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paris_Gun They were more of a weapon of terror (commonly known for shooting at Paris rather than military targets) than a practical one so they didn't win any battles with them but the range was there over 100yr ago now.
|
|
#
?
May 30, 2022 13:18
|
|
|
alex314 posted:We're talking about using NATO AWACS or surface radar to provide real time data to Ukrainian fighter planes, which will use this data to fire missiles without turning on their onboard radar. It's completely different level than relaying through some channel "hey, we've noticed 2 birds 100 km north of point x at 12:00 heading SSE" which UA would need to locate and target themselves. Ummm… I said nothing about firing without turning on its radar which with the systems that Ukraine would be getting wouldn’t be an option in the first place. Effectively it would go from someone giving you a map from Google Maps that they printed to sending you a link that you can open on your smart phone. You still need to get from point A to B but you can use the data more efficiently. Again you are going into hyperbole with things you don’t understand.
|
|
#
?
May 30, 2022 13:18
|
|
|
We get estimates on Russian losses-- do we have any for Ukraine? Their morale is clearly far better but they're outnumbered and at 3 months in attrition must be taking a toll.
|
|
#
?
May 30, 2022 13:22
|
|
|
Then I've misunderstood what you mean about "being fed data", no need to be "you don’t understand"  about it.
|
|
#
?
May 30, 2022 13:26
|
|
|
Count Roland posted:We get estimates on Russian losses-- do we have any for Ukraine? Their morale is clearly far better but they're outnumbered and at 3 months in attrition must be taking a toll. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/01/world/europe/foreign-legion-volunteers.html quote:Ukraine and Russia have each had steep military losses, though their governments have not given specific figures. In mid-April, U.S. intelligence agencies estimated that 5,500 to 11,000 Ukrainian troops had been killed, and more than 18,000 wounded. Western intelligence agencies estimate that Russian military losses range from 7,000 to 10,000 killed and 20,000 to 30,000 wounded.
|
|
#
?
May 30, 2022 13:27
|
|
|
Count Roland posted:We get estimates on Russian losses-- do we have any for Ukraine? Their morale is clearly far better but they're outnumbered and at 3 months in attrition must be taking a toll. There was one a last week from Kyiv Independent that I saw on Instagram, but the count only ran up to 16 Apr. https://www.instagram.com/p/Cd8OfzEIhgP/?igshid=YmMyMTA2M2Y=
|
|
#
?
May 30, 2022 13:27
|
|
|
steinrokkan posted:Anyway, they don't have F-16s and aren't getting F-16s so? Yeah, given this the discussion seems kind of moot. Plus, the Pentagon's already had to debunk claims the US were directly involved in the sinking of the Moskva and the targeting of Russian generals and in addressing those stories Kirby also implied the administration's gone about as far as they're willing to go in terms of real time intelligence. PerilPastry fucked around with this message at 13:34 on May 30, 2022 |
|
#
?
May 30, 2022 13:27
|
|
|
Count Roland posted:We get estimates on Russian losses-- do we have any for Ukraine? Their morale is clearly far better but they're outnumbered and at 3 months in attrition must be taking a toll. Officially Ukraine was claiming something like 10,000 or so KIA/WIA of their own troops in mid-late April. The Russian numbers are said to be running around 25,000-30,000 KIA/WIA for that same time period depending on which source you look at. Which is eerily close to the 3:1 typical casualty numbers expected for attackers vs defenders. Attacking forces typically lose lots more men than defenders. Civilian Ukrainian casualty numbers are said to be much higher of course but estimates are all over the place there with some saying over 20k were killed in Mariupol alone. We don't really know yet and probably won't yet until the war is over.
|
|
#
?
May 30, 2022 13:35
|
|
|
Ukr losses are probably roughly equal to Russian ones (excluding civilians). Maybe slightly lower since they're on the defensive mostly, but they're eating a shitload of artillery.
|
|
#
?
May 30, 2022 13:37
|
|
|
steinrokkan posted:Anyway, they don't have F-16s and aren't getting F-16s so? ...yet That said, thinking giving better hardware is a declaration of war is just histrionics.
|
|
#
?
May 30, 2022 13:57
|
|
|
Moon Slayer posted:Now if you are just talking about Germany or, to a lesser extent, France, then yeah, they have absolutely shown their whole rear end on the world stage. We've talked a lot about the disaster this has been for Russian soft power, but I think it's going to take a good long while before Germany can claim to be a "leader" of the EU without everyone rolling their eyes and doing a jack-off motion with their hand. Germany has never claimed to be the "leader" of the EU, just as it has never claimed to be the "leader of the Free World" after Trump got elected. Whenever Germany asserts any kind of leadership in Europe it gets accused of architecting the 4th Reich. The reluctance of Germany to lead at the EU level has been the topic of many magazine articles over the years. And while we are on the topic, Germany is going to change its constitution to allow the 100B € defense package to pass, likely in the coming days. It's a bit more consequential than it might seem compared to the normal defense budget (46B € in 2020) since it is a pure procurement package (for comparison, procurement made up 7.5B € of the budget in 2020). So it's basically a decade worth of procurement to be spent in the next few years.
|
|
#
?
May 30, 2022 13:59
|
|
|
aphid_licker posted:Ukr losses are probably roughly equal to Russian ones (excluding civilians). Maybe slightly lower since they're on the defensive mostly, but they're eating a shitload of artillery. I wouldn't be surprised if Ukr. casualties have gone up recently but I really doubt that the Russians would have killed something like 10k+ Ukr. military in just the last month or so. Shells to body count is usually very far from a 1:1 ratio unless they're PGM'd. Russia has PGM shells but have been plagued with shortages of all PGM munitions from nearly the very start of the war.
|
|
#
?
May 30, 2022 14:01
|
|
|
Slashrat posted:Pulling the pin on a grenade and daring a general to shoot you for disobedience is pretty loving nuts. It's worth noting that if I understood the story right, said near-mutiny didn't actually break out until he was dumb enough to tell someone "20 days left on your contract? Then you have 20 days left to die here." Sensitive, nuanced morale management is not apparently in high supply in Russian command. Seriously why the gently caress would you ever say that, what possible earthly good could come of making such a statement in public? There isn't a best-case scenario for saying that, there is no conceivable world in which anybody would react positively to such a statement. Honestly the entire story is so utterly on the nose that I actually sorta doubt it on that basis alone because "They can't really be THAT dumb, can they? Can they?" But it does seem like a running theme with the thread is "Yes they can," so...
|
|
#
?
May 30, 2022 14:16
|
|
|
Antigravitas posted:Germany has never claimed to be the "leader" of the EU, just as it has never claimed to be the "leader of the Free World" after Trump got elected. Whenever Germany asserts any kind of leadership in Europe it gets accused of architecting the 4th Reich. The reluctance of Germany to lead at the EU level has been the topic of many magazine articles over the years.
|
|
#
?
May 30, 2022 14:16
|
|
|
Ukrainians have lots of light infantry hanging out in known positions and probably eating absolute poo poo 24/7. Zelensky dropped that they were losing 50-100 in daily KIA during the Donbas battle. I probably overstated it when I said "similar", they are mostly on the defensive and didn't have the big routs Russia had, so probably substantially lower than what Russia is losing, but I would be seriously surprised if they're trading 2:1 or better.
|
|
#
?
May 30, 2022 14:16
|
|
|
They've been using militia units that were formed in feb in the East so they've definitely eaten through a lot of their original forces.
|
|
#
?
May 30, 2022 14:21
|
|
|
I can’t say I find this agreeable, or especially well written, but this makes much more sense than the usual Mearsheimer vomit about Lebensraum. https://twitter.com/vtchakarova/status/1530991795848593410
|
|
#
?
May 30, 2022 14:51
|
|
|
I agreed with it until we got to the "Dragonbear"
|
|
#
?
May 30, 2022 14:56
|
|
|
cinci zoo sniper posted:I can’t say I find this agreeable, or especially well written, but this makes much more sense than the usual Mearsheimer vomit about Lebensraum. What is a "unilateral ceasefire"?
|
|
#
?
May 30, 2022 15:03
|
|
|
Having to deal with Russia for our fuckin sunflower oil forever would suuuck
|
|
#
?
May 30, 2022 15:03
|
|
|
Chalks posted:What is a "unilateral ceasefire"? It seems to be some kind of magic ability which supernaturally forces the opposing side to freeze the war along current lines of control.
|
|
#
?
May 30, 2022 15:10
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/christopherjm/status/1531251056428126209 https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/status/1531259697910669315 https://twitter.com/liveuamap/status/1531127988988911619 https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/status/1531175885851738112 FishBulbia posted:I agreed with it until we got to the "Dragonbear" Would be a good name for a sequel to the Armour of the God.
|
|
#
?
May 30, 2022 15:12
|
|
|
I'm not an expert but the Velina thing kinda reads as "Russia is a genius playing 3d chess and will magically unify the region to put itself between the US and China. " It doesn't seem to match anything reported in the thread.
|
|
#
?
May 30, 2022 15:13
|
|
|
cinci zoo sniper posted:I can’t say I find this agreeable, or especially well written, but this makes much more sense than the usual Mearsheimer vomit about Lebensraum. FishBulbia posted:I agreed with it until we got to the "Dragonbear"
|
|
#
?
May 30, 2022 15:14
|
|
|
notwithoutmyanus posted:I'm not an expert but the Velina thing kinda reads as "Russia is a genius playing 3d chess and will magically unify the region to put itself between the US and China. " It doesn't seem to match anything reported in the thread. I think its good because it also puts Russia's actions in realist terms whereas mearshiemer tends to make Russia too passive.
|
|
#
?
May 30, 2022 15:15
|
|
|
aphid_licker posted:Ukrainians have lots of light infantry hanging out in known positions and probably eating absolute poo poo 24/7. Zelensky dropped that they were losing 50-100 in daily KIA during the Donbas battle. All we can do is guess or point at previous month old official numbers at this point but most of the people who are on the ground are saying Russia is blowing huge amounts of men and resources for minor gains and are stalling out. They run into massive supply issues as soon as they get too far from the rail systems and they don't have the trucks or men necessary to keep logistics up.
|
|
#
?
May 30, 2022 15:16
|
|
|
Germany would def jump on Russia declaring the war totes over guys we swear but it's not like there's much support they could withhold from Ukraine for daring to not participate in Russia's unilateral ceasefire that they're currently offering. Except I suppose lifting sanctions? It's an interesting thought how many Ukrainians would ultimately decide to stay in annexed territories and try to sorta get on with their lives vs how many would emigrate or even do guerrilla poo poo.
|
|
#
?
May 30, 2022 15:18
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/davekeating/status/1531271868015067136
|
|
#
?
May 30, 2022 15:19
|
|
|
A unilateral ceasefire is what has been termed a "frozen conflict" It's based on the idea however that the defending force will be politically or militarily unable to attempt an offensive
|
|
#
?
May 30, 2022 15:19
|
|
|
FishBulbia posted:I think its good because it also puts Russia's actions in realist terms whereas mearshiemer tends to make Russia too passive. I would be expecting that a "unilateral" ceasefire declared by Russia would be a ceasefire declared solely by Russia that nobody else agrees with as they continue genocide. It would be a "kk we lost please stop punching the bully" concession. I am not sure I see a lot of realism on like 15 major macroeconomic impacts that could take decades simply starting from "Russia successfully restocks during a magic ceasefire". I pretty much expect Ukraine to fight to the death unless something changes. Quite a lot between a and b including continually reporting Russia is straight out of tanks almost entirely.
|
|
#
?
May 30, 2022 15:23
|
|
|
FishBulbia posted:I think its good because it also puts Russia's actions in realist terms whereas mearshiemer tends to make Russia too passive. Its somewhat more realist than Mearshiemer but still doesn't really seem to add up. They could just sit where they were and saber rattle with nukes and neither China, the US, or Europe would mess with them because of that so long as they didn't go to far and the oil kept flowing. The goal she is talking about had already been achieved! Starting a war that maybe gets them Ukraine and/or some other Eastern European countries doesn't do a lot to fundamentally strengthen that position. And the way this war is going + the reaction of much of Europe to it makes me think that Russia will be worse of no matter what. edit: Also yeah I don't think Ukraine is going to care if Russia declares a ceasefire. The fighting isn't going to stop any time soon. And Ukraine isn't going to care if Germany or France complain about that either. Especially if the US keeps sending weapons and cash. PC LOAD LETTER fucked around with this message at 15:28 on May 30, 2022 |
|
#
?
May 30, 2022 15:24
|
|
|
Orban should've just replied "No puppet! No puppet! You're the puppet!" if he's going to quote Trump.
|
|
#
?
May 30, 2022 15:24
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/IKoshiw/status/1531249381269184512
|
|
#
?
May 30, 2022 15:25
|
|
|
Djarum posted:No, it is not. It is no different than what is being done now with NATO AWACS and other assets feeding information to Ukraine already. Having radar/satellite data doesn't "paint a laser designator". Having systems that can more easily use the data that is coming isn't an "open deflation of war". Don't make random assumptions and hyperbole unless you know what you are talking about. Don’t be all snarky and condescending. Your posts assume a lot without evidence (assuming a lot about what is and is not shared and how it’s shared as well as the future of unannounced weapons proliferations), and your data about air warfare is pretty bad and full of misunderstandings (for example, how wide Ukraine is and how radar works).
|
|
#
?
May 30, 2022 15:34
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 31, 2024 21:37 |
|
|
PederP posted:It seems to be some kind of magic ability which supernaturally forces the opposing side to freeze the war along current lines of control. Ukraine should have done this in the first hour of the war. This one weird trick the Russian's don't want you to know about.
|
|
#
?
May 30, 2022 16:12
|
|