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mrfart posted:Imagine, this is the stuff they release as propaganda, missing a target by 100 meters, Something's killing those 100 Ukrainians a day, who cares that there's a video on twitter of eight rockets missing. This is like the lol Trump dumb posts, people are just making themselves feel superior about the situation while the actual facts of the situation are still exactly as poo poo as before.
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Jun 1, 2022 23:16
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I am happy any time a rocket misses people
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Jun 1, 2022 23:18
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I don't think it is exactly racist or xenophobic to think that Russia's own threats to take the war into other European countries next shouldn't be dismissed out of hand, and it's pretty insulting to equate it with "orc horde" type rhetoric. You could argue that entertaining Russia's threats is being overly credulous, although this argument is much weaker than it was before February 24.
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Jun 1, 2022 23:18
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https://twitter.com/samramani2/status/1532120001141932033 Edit: https://twitter.com/senatormarkdaly/status/1532073563435724800 I wonder if these acts of recognition could snowball far enough to prompt the US to designate Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism. cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 23:25 on Jun 1, 2022 |
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Jun 1, 2022 23:23
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aphid_licker posted:Something's killing those 100 Ukrainians a day, who cares that there's a video on twitter of eight rockets missing. This is like the lol Trump dumb posts, people are just making themselves feel superior about the situation while the actual facts of the situation are still exactly as poo poo as before. That's my point. They don't care, they're firing walls of dumb artillery and missiles on everything, not giving a single gently caress who or what they destroy. And they're not ashamed to show it. And the situation isn't exactly as poo poo as before, it's worse.
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Jun 1, 2022 23:36
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I feel like the idea that European leaders pragmatically, behind closed doors, don't care if Ukraine is annexed seems a bit off the mark, because from a pragmatic security perspective unleashing the genie of near-peer European war as a method of settling disagreements is kind of a disaster for everyone. To use an analogy, suppose there were a group of regulars who rode the bus every day to work. It's a long journey, it's mostly the same people, and over time they've all gotten to know each other. Sometimes they talk, sometimes they make friends, sometimes they're kinda hostile to each other, but they're all just there to ride the bus to work and to ride it home again. Whatever, so it goes. And then one day out of the blue of the regulars goes apeshit on another and starts beating the crap out of him. Now you might say "Well, he's not attacking me, it's not my fight, I don't have to get involved," and that's certainly a rational perspective. You might also say "Well, I'm worried that I'll get hurt if I fight, and if I get hurt I might not be able to go to work and feed my family" and that's also perfectly rational. But it's also entirely rational to say "Jesus Christ that fucker just start a fight on this goddamn bus, and I know he's a regular and tomorrow he'll be back on the bus again. Is he going to fight the same guy again? Is he gonna fight someone else then? Is he gonna fight me?" Because even if you're pretty sure you can find good reasons for that guy not to fight you, he's just demonstrated that he's willing to get into a fight on a bus for his own reasons, something you weren't really expecting at all. Now, whenever you sit next to him or stand near him, you're always going to have to stay tensed and ready for the possibility that this dude might turn and go apeshit either on you or someone near you. It would take an inhuman degree of self-control not to change your attitude or behavior at ALL after a quiet commute to work transformed into a constant potential Fight Bus that you can't get out of. This goes doubly if the aggressor straight up murdered the other guy, and I challenge you to say that you wouldn't be at all creeped out and ready to defend yourself if the attacker, after having just ended the life of his opponent, came and sat down by you and casually said "So how's YOUR day?" It only gets worse when you can see that the attacker is drunk and during the fight is constantly yelling about how everyone on the bus loving hates him, he can tell, but he'll show them all, he'll gently caress them all, he will, you loving watch he'll loving pop a cap in all of their asses, you'll see! Even if you don't believe he'll actually act on it, how comfortable are you being near him afterwards, and how sure exactly are you that he's not going to do something wild again? Fundamentally security isn't just about being able to defend yourself - nobody can defend themselves against EVERYBODY, that would be incredibly exhausting and you can't actually cover every potential threat. Security is about feeling like you don't usually NEED to defend yourself because you live amongst people who you're pretty sure aren't going to attack you or anyone you care about. One of the key ways you can accomplish this is by making sure that anyone who DOES act out gets severely punished and restrained and that those who are attacked are supported and protected, so that others can see the consequences of such actions and be deterred while you reduce the potential threat the transgressor poses. As such, I'd say that for the sake of European security it makes perfect rational sense for a European leader to think "You know what we really need? More sanctions on Russia, more arms to Ukraine, and a swift kick in the balls for Putin."
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Jun 1, 2022 23:41
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cinci zoo sniper posted:I wonder if these acts of recognition could snowball far enough to prompt the US to designate Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism. The only thing I can think of that would be additionally laid, would be sanctions for countries that have certain economic relationships with Russia. For instance, if a country purchased arms from Russia, or supplied arms, they could also be implicated and sanctions would apply to them as well. An uncertain and tortuous path with unpredictable outcomes so no, don't think it would happen. Not needed in any case. I believe one country in particular understands the sanctions danger of supplying Russia with arms.
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Jun 1, 2022 23:48
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the popes toes posted:The current US sanctions are, in effect, the same sort that would be triggered with an announcement of that nature. So no reason to do so. I see, that makes sense to me. Cheers!
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Jun 2, 2022 00:01
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fnox posted:At the same time, are we really expecting people to have sympathy for the Russian soldier, or much less, the Russian government? I think that's primarily where the hatred is driven towards, like, the rather prominent use of the word "vatnik" isn't a slur against all Russians, it's first of all a word of Russian origin, secondly it refers to those who blindly follow government propaganda. It's all pretty directed at Putin and his fascist regime, claiming it's racism is disingenuous when the Ukrainians are ethnically very similar. Anti-russian bigotry existed before the war and it's ramped up now. I'm not talking about people being mean to soldiers either. Wanna hear how my co workers talk about my wife Edgar Allen Ho fucked around with this message at 00:26 on Jun 2, 2022 |
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Jun 2, 2022 00:22
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EDIT: Retracted, not a fair or constructive post.
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Jun 2, 2022 00:51
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https://twitter.com/thestudyofwar/status/1532144973134450688
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Jun 2, 2022 01:27
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Something occurred to me with regard to the wounded count. Militaries tend to count any injury sustained during combat as WIA. In 2003 we had an engineer company attached to our squadron. By the end of the summer something like half of the company had purple hearts. My memory is fuzzy, but I'm not sure they had any KIA at that point, and while a decent number (a dozen? maybe two dozen?) had been evacuated out of theatre, the rest remained combat capable. The overall company remained combat effective the entire deployment. This is not to say that 500 WIA a day is fine. It's not, and indicates that Ukraine's combat power is being degraded just as Russia's is. But it may not be as crippling as the number initially leads one to believe. If any goons served at the operational (battalion or brigade) levels more recently or for longer, they may have a better perspective. Bridge-talk I'm wondering if rivers are a larger obstacle than before. Armenia and Azerbaijan aside, there haven't been any large-scale, modern, peer fights since the Korean War, and precision munitions didn't exist back then. Now they are ubiquitous, which makes taking out temporary pontoon bridges much, much easier than 50 years ago. Big bridges--such as the Kerch bridge--remain difficult to destroy, but a pontoon sectional? This war may end up going static along river lines, or one side or the other will need to innovate a new way to run wet crossings.
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Jun 2, 2022 02:28
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What is that big blue dong-shaped excursion south of Novovorontsovka towards Nova Kakhovka? I assume the river Dnipro, but why is it considered under Ukraine control?
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Jun 2, 2022 02:39
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ummel posted:What is that big blue dong-shaped excursion south of Novovorontsovka towards Nova Kakhovka? I assume the river Dnipro, but why is it considered under Ukraine control? the more progress the dong makes towards the reservoir the more russia has to withdraw forces from the entire area north of there. Claimed control usually just means one side is making noise that they're fighting for/taking an area. Assessed control: there's picture/video evidence or other credible evidence to support the claim Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 02:49 on Jun 2, 2022 |
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Jun 2, 2022 02:45
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Another dawn is breaking in Kyiv, and it's still Ukrainian.   [screencaps of dawn in Ukrainian cities will resume this weekend when I get home from vacation]
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Jun 2, 2022 02:52
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I would have preferred this to be one of those things we all assumed to have occurred even though it was unsaid: "We don't comment on intelligence issues." But now it was said and cannot be unsaid: https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1532119877594529799
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Jun 2, 2022 03:04
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ummel posted:What is that big blue dong-shaped excursion south of Novovorontsovka towards Nova Kakhovka? I assume the river Dnipro, but why is it considered under Ukraine control? It's the Kakhovka reservoir, would assume it's blue because it's coded as a lake in some program
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Jun 2, 2022 03:05
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Dawn breaks 2 days remaining. - Russian authorities blocked Ukrainian internet and cellular networks providers at area under their control, - General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine says in the evening report https://t.me/lumsrc/1643 This might not be great if the Russians are still using cellphones for communications.
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Jun 2, 2022 03:06
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James Garfield posted:It's the Kakhovka reservoir, would assume it's blue because it's coded as a lake in some program Parts of Dnipro are commonly highlighted like that because it’s basically a chain of kilometres-wide reservoirs for a solid length of it. Edit: “Long-range” as in with the same munitions as American M142 package announced yesterday, so <100km. https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/status/1532187915073294339 Edit2: https://twitter.com/iikkakorhonen/status/1532084463785676801 cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 04:47 on Jun 2, 2022 |
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Jun 2, 2022 03:37
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Guys guys guys Russia says that us long range missiles will increase likelihood of retaliation from the US. . Okay now that you cleaned your pants out from this ~~~terrifying~~~ threat. It's a yawn. And a big one at that. Russia loves to cry "we will attack you we will nuke you we will sanction you" and I wish I could loudly yawn into the state dumas discord channel because it's so loving boring.
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Jun 2, 2022 05:08
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I wish the US would stop announcing which weapons they're sending weeks before the weapons get to Ukraine. If the Russians know the M270 will be deployed, doesn't this give them weeks to prepare for them?
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Jun 2, 2022 05:24
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Ynglaur posted:Something occurred to me with regard to the wounded count. Militaries tend to count any injury sustained during combat as WIA. In 2003 we had an engineer company attached to our squadron. By the end of the summer something like half of the company had purple hearts. My memory is fuzzy, but I'm not sure they had any KIA at that point, and while a decent number (a dozen? maybe two dozen?) had been evacuated out of theatre, the rest remained combat capable. The overall company remained combat effective the entire deployment. It may make sense to use your high end counts for KIA an WIA for the international audience, but I am not sure how that would play out with the domestic one. But yes, their WIA counts could be anything from lost limbs to something that only requires a bandaid or two. They have also been launching counter offensives against the Russians, which will lead to higher casuality rates vs those on the defensive.
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Jun 2, 2022 05:30
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The X-man cometh posted:I wish the US would stop announcing which weapons they're sending weeks before the weapons get to Ukraine. Russia also has spies and intelligence agencies. Even if they’re surprised by this, which I’d wager is an unrealistic expectation, probability of 4 missile launchers catching them with pants down is 0.
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Jun 2, 2022 05:40
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Chill Monster posted:Russia has even been kicked out of UN Security Council, which is small, but counts for something; Unless I missed some pretty huge news, I think you're mixing it up with something else - getting kicked out of the security council would be a pretty big deal.
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Jun 2, 2022 05:44
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Probably confusing it with the Russia being suspended from the UN Human Rights Council.
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Jun 2, 2022 05:47
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mmkay posted:Unless I missed some pretty huge news, I think you're mixing it up with something else - getting kicked out of the security council would be a pretty big deal. Yeah. Interestingly on that note is this story from last week about US supporting Japanese accession to the SC, which could change its dynamics considerably if it ever happens https://thehill.com/policy/international/3497680-biden-backs-japan-joining-reformed-un-security-council-japanese-pm-says/ quote:Biden backs Japan joining ‘reformed’ UN Security Council, Japanese PM says How is such a reform even to be accomplished, I have no clue and a detailed discussion maybe wouldn’t be suitable here.
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Jun 2, 2022 06:07
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crepeface posted:Probably confusing it with the Russia being suspended from the UN Human Rights Council. yes, that's what I did.
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Jun 2, 2022 07:26
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Calibanibal posted:I enjoy Deteriorata's updates, they're very comforting. Like a warm glass of milk before bed I think it's sorta lost its punch now that the Russians retreated from Kyiv and northern Ukraine
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Jun 2, 2022 07:28
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cinci zoo sniper posted:It might be the “boil the frog strategy”. Announce 4 HIMARS systems shipped, sit out the Russian meltdown, quietly fly in another 40. What’s Russian going to melt down about then, that there’s more of the thing? Also wondering if the ginsu variant of the hellfire might be on their wishlist. 
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Jun 2, 2022 07:30
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SmokingFrog0641 posted:https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1532048338127933442?s=20&t=CdFDkGrQMdlK2j68_h9GBA The German army does not operate this system. Of course it won't be able to ship them. It does not operate ground-based IRIS missiles. It cannot ship missiles it does not have. Nothing will be delayed, BECAUSE A SHIPMENT OF NON-EXISTENT MISSILES WAS NEVER ON THE TABLE.
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Jun 2, 2022 07:33
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His Divine Shadow posted:I think it's sorta lost its punch now that the Russians retreated from Kyiv and northern Ukraine On the contrary, it is a daily reminder that not too long ago, many of us woke every morning fearing news of a fallen and sacked Kyiv.
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Jun 2, 2022 07:53
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cinci zoo sniper posted:https://twitter.com/senatormarkdaly/status/1532073563435724800 I'm glad this occurred (and support any symbolic measures of recognition when it comes to any tragedy in any country), but there was a supermajoritarian consensus among political parties and voters alike to expel the Russian ambassador within days of the beginning of the war and the Taoiseach and FM still haven't taken such measures, so my guess is this won't amount to anything real even in Ireland.
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Jun 2, 2022 09:04
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Tomn posted:I feel like the idea that European leaders pragmatically, behind closed doors, don't care if Ukraine is annexed seems a bit off the mark, because from a pragmatic security perspective unleashing the genie of near-peer European war as a method of settling disagreements is kind of a disaster for everyone.
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Jun 2, 2022 09:15
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cinci zoo sniper posted:There’s strong public support for Ukraine in Germany, despite Scholz’s attempts to sabotage it, which have had meaningful impact. this is nonresponsive, I was talking about a policy proposal show me the headlines that we should pay for europes armies
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Jun 2, 2022 10:03
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I'm pretty sure half the regulars here won't satisfied until France and Germany declared WW3 and that everyone will be conscripted to march on Moscow. Even then they'll say Scholz secretly loves Putin while doing so. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Jun 2, 2022 11:18
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Nothingtoseehere posted:I'm pretty sure half the regulars here won't satisfied until France and Germany declared WW3 and that everyone will be conscripted to march on Moscow. Even then they'll say Scholz secretly loves Putin while doing so. Yes, and this is not limited to this thread. Germany is torpedoing its foreign policy credentials in Nordics and Eastern Europe. At least Scholz gets to repeat that he’s not Kaiser Wilhelm II, I guess. https://www.stuttgarter-nachrichten.de/inhalt.olaf-scholz-ich-bin-nicht-kaiser-wilhelm.1de8470a-ddbc-4f14-80df-1ac6274b21ec.html
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Jun 2, 2022 11:42
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Only tangentially related, but still, easing Europe off Russian petroleum is a good thing. New Norwegian LNG terminal up and running today with a capacity of 6,5 billion cubic meters/year.
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Jun 2, 2022 11:59
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The energy outlook is so depressing anyway. There is no magic quick solution but imo we should be looking to build 50000 wind turbines, on semi-submersible platforms if there's not enough sandbanks, and 50 new EPRs come the 2030s, or something like this, but all I see is "how can we continue using fossils, only paying way more than before". The war's increasingly "nichts Neues", anecdotes coming in are all over the place, seems utterly pointless to argue if the Russians are bleeding out, or if the Ukrainians are bleeding out, or both or neither.
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Jun 2, 2022 12:17
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mawarannahr posted:Yeah. Interestingly on that note is this story from last week about US supporting Japanese accession to the SC, which could change its dynamics considerably if it ever happens I imagine you’d need all 5 current permanent members to not veto it, and good luck with that.
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Antigravitas posted:The German army does not operate this system. Then uh, perhaps they should stop promising to ship them, if they have no ability to. I don't know why you're screaming at SmokingFrog.
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