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Henrik Zetterberg posted:It's pretty wild that we're 3 months into this and Zelenskyy can still travel around Ukraine fairly freely and can even consider a vacation to Madrid. I think he really doesn’t want to leave country even for a second, so, on a second thought, attendance is going be a rather strong signal for the quality of seal on the invitation.
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Jun 9, 2022 22:52
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Ola posted:I'm thinking inside coup, surprise assasination and then subsequent very painful civil war, but I think that's better than the current situation . What's the scenario for a civil war, palace revolution makes more sense. I see neither regions nor institutions nor military units coming to blows with one another, it's just gonna be about who ends up in control of Vlad's phone at the Kremlin.
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Jun 9, 2022 23:01
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mobby_6kl posted:Hungary, sure, doubt it's Czechoslovakia. They've been very supportive short of some oil sanctions I think. You push it up a steep enough hill first, maybe. Paladinus posted:Two of them are Denmark and the Netherlands. The Netherlands was also against the visa-free regime for Ukraine back in the day. I would be very disappointed in the Dutch if this turns out to be true. They had a referendum in 2016 about it, and the people were against it then. But a lot has changed since then, broader public seems to be for it now, don't know if politicians will follow.
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Jun 9, 2022 23:01
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Russian propagandists going full medieval with their suggested execution techniques https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1534554247278247936 cinci zoo sniper posted:I think he really doesn’t want to leave country even for a second, so, on a second thought, attendance is going be a rather strong signal for the quality of seal on the invitation. Yeah by "invited to" they mean he'll be zooming in, not physically in Madrid.
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Jun 9, 2022 23:01
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Youth Decay posted:Yeah by "invited to" they mean he'll be zooming in, not physically in Madrid. Eh, that’s a nothingburger then.
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Jun 9, 2022 23:06
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I’m having a hard time understanding the German response. It seems like the calculus should be something like:
Also: Ukraine may be able to break the ability of the RU to continue in this fashion, if they are properly supplied. Thus they should be very interested in supporting Ukraine? Instead, it seems the calculus is now:
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Jun 9, 2022 23:10
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It’s a have your cake and eat it too response. What they would really like is for there to be no war and to comfortably buy cheap Russian oil and gas. But that’s not an option and there’s no option in the short to medium term that will get that. And they haven’t grasped that yet.
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Jun 9, 2022 23:13
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Ola posted:I'm thinking inside coup, surprise assasination and then subsequent very painful civil war, but I think that's better than the current situation . I believe just the opposite. People will just stop doing things. Army guys will just stop. Police guys will just stop. Legal offices will just stop. Oh they'll keep going to work, but they just won't listen. It will be painfully slow. Then one day it will be someone other than Putin, and people, like before, will just keep going to work and some sort of normalcy will be seen to be preferable. Or they could just go full Soviet Union for the cheap bread and pensions and be a pain in the rear end all over again for everybody. I'm 50/50 on either of them.
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Jun 9, 2022 23:14
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A somewhat typical story for our Belgian military: In 2008, the army got rid of all its 64 M109A4BE 155mm self-propelled howitzers. In 2015, 38 were sold to Indonesia, the rest to a private company for a dumping price of €15,000 each. In April the government wanted to buy them back and send them to Ukraine. But the company asked 10 times the price, and negotiations halted. Now it turns out they were send to Ukraine anyway. Someone else bought them, but it's not clear who and for how much. https://www.brusselstimes.com/belgium/231363/belgium-will-not-send-howitzers-to-ukraine-due-to-unreasonable-prices https://mil.in.ua/en/news/ukraine-h...6-0-gaNycGzNCGU
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Jun 9, 2022 23:25
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Germany also appears to be the target of really, really heavy Russian propaganda, which further fucks up their ability to respond.
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Jun 9, 2022 23:26
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Bone Crimes posted:I’m having a hard time understanding the German response. Since the latter is the current reality, Germany is focused on not burning bridges and gunning on this being solved sooner than later. Why would they burn relations with Russia for your sake? This is literally not Germany's problem. They got a million refugees from Syria alone and that didn't stop Germany from continuing diplomatic relations with the US or Turkey. Destroying relations with Russia over a three month war is the epitome of being short sighted.
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Jun 10, 2022 00:22
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JerikTelorian posted:I have to imagine that this is going to be an absolutely massive block to resuming agricultural operations right? Even if you clear the UXO, chemicals and shards have to be a major concern. Parts of northeast France are still a dead zone, over a century after the WWI armistice, and not just because of UXO.
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Jun 10, 2022 00:22
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 Public service announcement - D&D rules have been reviewed, and concisely rewritten. https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=4004166&perpage=40&noseen=1#post524050279
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Jun 10, 2022 00:22
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Mans posted:Either the Russian army is gunning on a non-stop campaign that wants to reach the eastern border of Germany or the Ukrainain army, even desperate for military offerings from the west as it is, is stopping them quite respectably before they even reach the Dniepr. Are you Scholz-whispering or is this what you actually think?
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Jun 10, 2022 00:31
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I have noticed people starting to develop attitudes towards the Ukraine war resembling that of impatient adults trying to convince children to end their games so they can all go home. People in my industry seem to think Russia will persist as a valuable exporter of energy and as an economic partner to various nations and are showing willingness to throw Ukraine under the bus just to make the war stop and things go back to normal. It's really disturbing and I fear for the state of this war as people start losing interest in favor of whatever the next big thing on the news is. I bet Russia is counting on that. To drag the war on enough and remain a "contender" just long enough for the support to Ukraine to stop and for countries like France and Germany to begin pressuring Ukraine to cede territory for peace while the GOP in the US starts cutting off aid. I hope it doesn't happen. We should be rapidly speeding up the training and weapons deliveries for Ukraine so they can start pushing back the Russians.
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Jun 10, 2022 00:45
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Mans posted:
Do you seriously consider "a three month war" (that already caused thousands of civilian deaths) a minor event that shouldn't make the invader a pariah state?
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Jun 10, 2022 01:02
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A war of conquest via invasion of a sovereign nation, at that. During which they continue to threaten nuclear escalation. Totally not worth any consequences. Sooo shortsighted.
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Jun 10, 2022 01:59
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ISW update https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1535010678779568133?t=-281cKSBG2z8uTlwcbfDpQ&s=19 https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1535059899297964034?t=ruvPCXRnJf6TzAvhP3UlnQ&s=19 https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1535060195193200641?t=3be_mrL-Fpi83uI4W7TdJQ&s=19 quote:Key Takeaways
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Jun 10, 2022 02:00
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Nenonen posted:I spent too much time making this but I feel like it needed to be done... missed a chance to use 'we have no fuch's to give'
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Jun 10, 2022 02:39
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Germany still sees the best-case scenario as being Ukraine surrenders, the east and south are ceded to Russia or Russia-backed satellites, sanctions are lifted, the gas flows again, and everything goes back to exactly the way it was on February 23. Everything save all the dead people, of course. e: to put it just a bit more charitably, Germany just wants the war to end. They don't care how. Moon Slayer fucked around with this message at 02:50 on Jun 10, 2022 |
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Jun 10, 2022 02:43
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Another dawn is breaking in Kyiv, and it's still Ukrainian.   
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Jun 10, 2022 02:47
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Mans posted:This is literally not Germany's problem. They got a million refugees from Syria alone and that didn't stop Germany from continuing diplomatic relations with the US or Turkey. Destroying relations with Russia over a three month war is the epitome of being short sighted. I don't know if this is your actual position or you're describing Germany's position, but the position is naive. There is no going back to normal after this. For the first time in a century, there is a war of conquest in Europe. If Russia wins, things won't "go back to normal." It will have taught Russia that the West is weak-willed, and that it can win an imperialist invasion by sticking it out until the West is distracted. What will it do with that lesson? It will start thinking about its next target. Maybe one of the Baltics. Maybe finishing off Georgia. Maybe one of the central Asian former SSRs. Putin's going to demand more and more, just like Hitler, until he is finally told no and taught a lesson. This is what Germany is failing to understand. Whether Ukraine is annexed or not, there is no outcome at this point ending with a peaceful Russia selling oil and gas to Germany. Either Russia learns its lesson in Ukraine, or there will be another war, and another, until Putin dies or the Russian army is defeated.
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Jun 10, 2022 02:48
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Bone Crimes posted:I’m having a hard time understanding the German response. This is just guessing, but I'd say Germany is playing the game they are because they see more than two possible outcomes here. Russia conquering Ukraine and eyeing further neighbors is a nightmare for Germany, and I think Scholz et al are smart enough to see that. If they thought Ukraine was in serious danger of being completely annexed in the next few months or years (but not in a few weeks, in which case providing help would probably be too late), they'd probably do more. But assuming they're not worried about that, which scenario goes the best for them? I think they're considering several possibilities A) Russia takes limited areas of Ukraine and the war effectively comes to a halt or near halt, with or without an official ceasefire. Things start going back to normal, the refugees go home, sanctions might get eased, etc. B) Russia is pushed back to February 23rd borders and the war effectively comes to a half or near halt, with or without an official ceasefire. This humiliates Russia and has a small chance of causing them to destabilize or do something stupid. C) Ukraine kicks Russia out and retakes Donbas and/or Crimea, possibly due to a Russian military collapse or political instability. This greatly humiliates Russia and has a larger chance of causing them to destabilize (if they haven't already) or do something stupid. D) Ukraine actually turns things around and invades or at least launches major attacks on Russia with Western equipment. This... well, you probably can guess. I'm not saying C or D is terribly likely, but it's the kind of thing that goes into the "how much do we help Ukraine?" calculus. Overall, A or maybe B are probably the best options for most of Europe. In a realpolitik sense they have lots of reasons not to want Ukraine to lose (though that may be acceptable if they can expect an expensive occupation), but few reasons to want Ukraine to win. Especially since, as appealing as the idea of Putin getting assassinated or a Russian civil war might sound considering their impressive audition for Saturday morning cartoon villain, political instability involving a fight over control of Russia's nuclear arsenal is probably the last thing most Western nations want. Sure, the world got through it last time, but that doesn't mean they want to do it again. So, from a strictly pragmatic point of view, the best short term option for a lot of nations is probably for Ukraine to lose slightly. Not all nations are purely pragmatic there (notwithstanding moral reasons to help Ukraine, there's plenty of people with lots of reasons to dislike Russia), but I suspect it figures into their motivations. Also if Germany's military is really in that horrible a state they might want to avoid giving up useful weapons. Bremen fucked around with this message at 03:16 on Jun 10, 2022 |
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Jun 10, 2022 03:00
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I guess the calculus for A and B is when sanctions get lifted. Because if Germany's main goal is open trade again, that means things need to normalize and sanctions lifted. And if there's a frozen conflict, and Ukraine says it's still at war, it's hard to see sanctions get lifted. Perhaps in January 2025 if President Trump returns and says the US is dropping sanctions, but not earlier than that. Related question, what is the EU mechanism for lifting the sanctions? Does it take a unanimous vote? Majority? Can, for example, Poland forever veto lifting sanctions?
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Jun 10, 2022 03:53
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Ola posted:Harpoons are designed from the get-go for over-the-horizon targeting. I don't know how it works, I assume drone stuff hasn't been integrated already, but I suspect "punch in GPS numbers, let active seeker find and decide" is possible. 75 kilometers is relatively short range, I don't think the Black Sea fleet will be sailing within that envelope. But it improves Odesa's defenses nonetheless.
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Jun 10, 2022 04:23
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Nenonen posted:75 kilometers is relatively short range, I don't think the Black Sea fleet will be sailing within that envelope. But it improves Odesa's defenses nonetheless. 75 nautical miles, or about 139km. Not nearly the entire black sea, but enough to hit ships coming anywhere near Snake Island or anywhere closer to current Ukrainian held territory than the Western tip of the Crimean peninsula. Warbadger fucked around with this message at 04:34 on Jun 10, 2022 |
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Jun 10, 2022 04:30
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https://twitter.com/Flash43191300/status/1534924657987551233
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Jun 10, 2022 04:52
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There are a lot of people in the EU who want the ecomomic and diplomatic ostracization of Russia to continue until they no longer occupy Ukrainian territory and accept responsibility for war crimes. Yes that likely wont happen until a new regime is in place. Until then there can be no normalization regardless of any ceasefires. Trying to pressure Ukraine into making concessions will splinter the EU. Sanctions in this case are not made to bring about Putins fall, nor are they only to hamper Russias war effort. They are a consequence of Russia waging war in Europe. That makes them bad company until they resubmit to Pax Europaea. I will take to the streets before I accept my national and EU politicians resuming economic and diplomatic relations with Russia. Some German and French politicians fail to realize how uncompromising many Europeans are on this.
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Jun 10, 2022 05:29
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Warbadger posted:75 nautical miles, or about 139km. Not nearly the entire black sea, but enough to hit ships coming anywhere near Snake Island or anywhere closer to current Ukrainian held territory than the Western tip of the Crimean peninsula. I wonder if they work on bridges
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Jun 10, 2022 05:48
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PederP posted:There are a lot of people in the EU who want the ecomomic and diplomatic ostracization of Russia to continue until they no longer occupy Ukrainian territory and accept responsibility for war crimes. Given what Russia keeps saying about europe the mask is off and it's too late to put it back on. The three things I want to see are: -No cessation of sanctions -Military buildup in europe to strengthen our defences. -Start the long term project of reducing our own supply chains vulnerability, basically stop being so reliant on east asia, which looks to me like a huge red flag if China does sometihng there, which you never know, can't trust authoritarian regimes to act rationally. As shown with Russia, best to have as little to do with them as possible.
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Jun 10, 2022 06:40
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Warbadger posted:75 nautical miles, or about 139km. Not nearly the entire black sea, but enough to hit ships coming anywhere near Snake Island or anywhere closer to current Ukrainian held territory than the Western tip of the Crimean peninsula. Ah, I misread that! But yes, still considerably less than the Neptuns which are supposed to reach up to 280 kilometers, twice the range of Harpoon. But it solidifies Ukraine's coastal defence which opens the option of freeing reserves from Odesa or even looking at doing something about Transnistria. By which I mean demanding that Russia withdraw from there, with an implied 'or else'.
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Jun 10, 2022 07:04
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Mans posted:Either the Russian army is gunning on a non-stop campaign that wants to reach the eastern border of Germany or the Ukrainain army, even desperate for military offerings from the west as it is, is stopping them quite respectably before they even reach the Dniepr. The obvious solution is for Germany's neighbours to invade them, annex the military industry and just loot it for Ukraine like Russia is looting Ukraine grain. After all, short war is no reason to destroy relationships, so Germany will be fine with this 
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Jun 10, 2022 07:20
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The map updates have relied heavily on "marginal" for a few weeks now. Sure, it's very slow, but could be in some months Russia has marginally gained themselves control of the entirety of eastern Ukraine.
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Jun 10, 2022 08:52
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Count Roland posted:Honestly it's funny that anyone expects Germany to be a leader in a military situation. They're uh pretty or of practice, and it shows. I'm not exactly pumped to have Germany return to it's role a great military power. Japan, too. The problem is precisely that they are trying to play leaders with some sort of imbecilic "give peace a chance" scheme that is clearly just a smoke screen for their real goal of silently sacrificing Ukraine so that they can return to business as usual. If they didn't want to play leaders, they would shut up and get with the loving program.
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Jun 10, 2022 09:07
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Bone Crimes posted:I’m having a hard time understanding the German response. All that conspiracy nonsense about Scholz being bought or Germans desperately wanting to get back in business with Russia (which primarily comes from people who don't actually live in Germany and have no idea what they are talking about) aside, it's mostly just A) Naivety and ignorance about the horrors that Russia has been up to in the occupied territories, thinking occupation is somewhat acceptable if the alternative is destruction B) Doubt that we can affect the situation in a positive way. Thinking that 200 NATO artillery pieces that Ukraine can't even keep operational mid-term won't help against the 6k Russia can field and we are just prolonging the conflict and the inevitable outcome And there is definitely a sentiment that we already lost this crisis by not being prepared and letting our armed forces rot over the years. Lots of Merkel blaming going on. The 100 billion € gift to the Bundeswehr and huge budget increase are kinda the reaction to this, i.e. "we'll do better in the next one, when we are actually prepared".
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Jun 10, 2022 09:14
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Strange quote in the Guardian article (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/10/were-almost-out-of-ammunition-and-relying-on-western-arms-says-ukraine): quote:“Everything now depends on what [the west] gives us,” said [deputy head of Ukraine’s military intelligence] Skibitsky. “Ukraine has one artillery piece to 10 to 15 Russian artillery pieces. Our western partners have given us about 10% of what they have.” 10% of what? 10% of all their artillery and ammo? Or 10% of the stuff that is hypothetically sitting around with no use? 10% of all artillery of various European nations and USA having been sent over sounds to me like a lot rather than a little. Also interesting figure is that Ukraine is said to use 5000 shells per day, so obviously Russians many more, perhaps many times more, but still it is estimated they can keep going on for another year without running out. In that sense it sounds like even west sending "100%" would not be enough. E: Some people say these reports are Ukrainians using pessimistic tones to shock allies into giving more support faster, but if so I think it is a big risk. It can just as well feed into feelings of hopelessness, that Russia's win is just a question of time, whatever is done or not done. d64 fucked around with this message at 09:23 on Jun 10, 2022 |
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Jun 10, 2022 09:15
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the popes toes posted:I wonder if they work on bridges quote:Lt. Dave Giachetti, the 48th TFW’s specialist in bridge attacks, recalled the situation: “I thought that bridges would be pretty easy to knock out with PGMs [precision guided munitions]—until I tried it. We would attack a bridge and get several hits, and then we’d discover—holy mackerel!—the bridge was still standing. Absolutely not possible. You would need at least twice the payload (Harpoon's warhead is 488 pounds) and you would also need to hit exactly right. Also if you are thinking of the Kerch bridge, where would Ukrainians fire them from that is within 138 km of the target? Russia has all of Azov coast.
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Jun 10, 2022 09:22
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d64 posted:The map updates have relied heavily on "marginal" for a few weeks now. Sure, it's very slow, but could be in some months Russia has marginally gained themselves control of the entirety of eastern Ukraine. If they keep it up they'll make it to Normandy eventually. But hopefully this pace gives some time for the west to get its poo poo together oh. 
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Jun 10, 2022 09:25
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steinrokkan posted:The problem is precisely that they are trying to play leaders with some sort of imbecilic "give peace a chance" scheme that is clearly just a smoke screen for their real goal of silently sacrificing Ukraine so that they can return to business as usual. To simplify this quite a bit, there are two sides with what seem to be equally powerful influence in voices in the German government and populace in regards to this conflict. You have what is often referred to as the 'Doves' or peace loving folk. At an extreme they see the only eventual cause of having a large and well funded military will eventually lead to wars of conquest, so are usually always against anything related to increasing military budget. On the same side you have those against selling/sending arms overseas as that also leads to war and misery. These two camps include a large portion of the German populace. At an aggregate, I would not say Germany has a 'Hawk' side, at least compared to many of its Western allies. But there are those who are pragmatic and see/have seen how having a capabable and ready military is mandatory in our current global situation. They also see Germany as having that leadership role in Europe and the world in preventing or fighting against anything related to the horrors caused by Nazi Germany. This camp is also a large portion of the populace, but not the majority. So you may see why Germany (besides all the other many nuances involved in this conflict) is having problems in having full and unconditional support for Ukraine. And unfortunately Scholz is bumbling his way through this crisis so far, but I am not confident in anyone else in the German government being able do anything but. They will all have to figure it out soon though, those bridges with Russia are already on fire and will soon be burnt down, and it seems to look like it is spreading to bridges leading in other directions as well.
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Jun 10, 2022 09:30
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mrfart posted:You push it up a steep enough hill first, maybe. I recall there was a disgusting poster or ad at the time, with beautiful Ukrainian women and a slogan like “would you feel comfortable having her talking to your husband?” Or some such. Belgian media are also running “fait divers” articles these days about Ukrainian refugees buying designer hand bags in Antwerp and squatting apartment during our housing crisis (with matching pictures of blonde mom and daughter smiling with their purchases, of course) snd an article about a British man who dumped his wife and kids over some Ukrainian twenty-something refugee after she moved in for 14 days. The misogyny takes are already laying the groundwork for “actually they are pests coming to disrupt your household” narrative to justify keeping them out of the EU. And Syrian refugees had the opposite problem of being vilified as men leaving their families behind in a war zone. There’s no winning with these people.
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