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What an absurdly indefensible island. It's maybe the worst defensive terrain in the entire country.
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Jun 30, 2022 14:09
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Looks like the Russians have finally decided to close that little corpse-generating factory.
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Jun 30, 2022 14:16
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Ratoslov posted:What an absurdly indefensible island. It's maybe the worst defensive terrain in the entire country. Or: "How to get all the enemy assets in one place for ease of destruction".  Ukraine should leave it derelict for the duration or until the russians try it again.
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Jun 30, 2022 14:16
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Rigel posted:Looks like the Russians have finally decided to close that little corpse-generating factory. A good thread from a good boat guy on why this is kind of a big deal and why Russia's explanation doesn't make sense https://twitter.com/CovertShores/status/1542457954246578177?s=20&t=q90SwTIQcQVm3hPrzga2zw https://twitter.com/CovertShores/status/1542457965327929344?s=20&t=q90SwTIQcQVm3hPrzga2zw https://twitter.com/CovertShores/status/1542457994339827713?s=20&t=q90SwTIQcQVm3hPrzga2zw Also Russia lost another boat https://twitter.com/Capt_Navy/status/1542456275908313090?s=20&t=q90SwTIQcQVm3hPrzga2zw
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Jun 30, 2022 14:24
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KitConstantine posted:A good thread from a good boat guy on why this is kind of a big deal and why Russia's explanation doesn't make sense I will add a very simple layer of analysis: it's also a huge symbolic victory (and a not-at-all-small tangible one too) that comes right as Ukraine is losing some ground in the north east. Snake Island has been a symbol of Ukraine's success as an underdog basically from day 1.
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Jun 30, 2022 14:31
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Maybe they're just hoping Ukraine will put troops on it so they can have a go at shelling it for a bit?
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Jun 30, 2022 15:00
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Russia doesn't hold the coast near Snake Island. Ukraine can put artillery and missile launchers on the island and cover it, and the surrounding waters, from shore. The island then covers a deeper portion of the Black Sea and the airspace.
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Jun 30, 2022 15:17
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The Lone Badger posted:Maybe they're just hoping Ukraine will put troops on it so they can have a go at shelling it for a bit? It won't be easy - Russia can't reach it with artillery like Ukraine does, so they would have to waste their precious missiles launched either from sea or air. And you can bet that Ukrainians will occupy the island so they can operate sensors and even drones from there.
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Jun 30, 2022 15:19
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The Lone Badger posted:Maybe they're just hoping Ukraine will put troops on it so they can have a go at shelling it for a bit? I hope not. Maybe send over a couple of guys in a dingy by night to hoist a flag and take a few selfies but staying there would leave them as exposed as the Russians. It really can't be stressed enough just how dumb it was for Russia to put men and material on that island. Tiny with no-concealment within artillery range. The result was 100% assured. In the infinity of parallel universes there's not a single one where the Ukrainians wouldn't go through the trouble of getting a howitzer within range of it.
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Jun 30, 2022 15:19
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The assumption was that Russia would control Odessa and the entire Black Sea Coast, so the Ukrainians wouldn't be able to hit it anyway. Seizing Snake Island was so Russia could control the Danube.
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Jun 30, 2022 15:28
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 Russian MoD: Did we abandon the island because we simply couldn't keep it? Definitely no, but also, yes, absolutely. quote:Fake: Russian troops have withdrawn from Snake Island, unable to withstand attacks by the AFU. Ukrainian sources and western media, such as the New York Times, report on it this way. Paladinus fucked around with this message at 15:47 on Jun 30, 2022 |
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Jun 30, 2022 15:39
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Paladinus posted:
Literally "we could have won, but we didn't want to".
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Jun 30, 2022 15:42
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lilljonas posted:Literally "we could have won, but we didn't want to". How is Russia taking the "Actually made NATO far larger/ please help me budget this, my economy is dying" news? I'm assuming not well. TulliusCicero fucked around with this message at 16:02 on Jun 30, 2022 |
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Jun 30, 2022 15:57
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TulliusCicero posted:How is Russia taking the "Actually made NATO far larger/ please help me budget this, my economy is dying" news? Actually, it's not Russia now has a bigger border with NATO, it's *Bane voice* NATO now has a bigger border with Russia. And all the sanctions hurt Europe more than they hurt Russia.
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Jun 30, 2022 16:01
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Paladinus posted:And all the sanctions hurt Europe more than they hurt Russia. This is nonsense. Almost 40% of Russia's exports go to the EU. Less than 5% of the EU's go to Russia. This is devastating for Russia, inconvenient for Europe, which will now have switch off Russian gas a few years earlier than they were originally planning to.
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Jun 30, 2022 17:06
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Russian economy is doing fine, don't you think that having 99% of your exports come from extracting oil and gas is a more resilient economy, especially with current market prices which will probably stay at this level forever?
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Jun 30, 2022 17:16
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saratoga posted:This is nonsense. Almost 40% of Russia's exports go to the EU. Less than 5% of the EU's go to Russia. This is devastating for Russia, inconvenient for Europe, which will now have switch off Russian gas a few years earlier than they were originally planning to. Read the question he was replying to. I think he is explaining Russia's spin on it.
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Jun 30, 2022 17:17
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Maybe, just maybe, they ran out of soldiers willing to occupy Snake Island. Would you do a 2 week billet on Snake Island for rubles? How about dollars? How many?
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Jun 30, 2022 17:28
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If you spend one night on Snake Island I will give you $10,000
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Jun 30, 2022 17:34
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the popes toes posted:Maybe, just maybe, they ran out of soldiers willing to occupy Snake Island. i've got an idea for a racket... you know how some parents are willing to pay tens of thousands of rubles to get their kids redeployed out of the north east? How about a nice island vacation instead?
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Jun 30, 2022 17:35
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cinci zoo sniper posted:https://twitter.com/kevinrothrock/status/1542474160324153344
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Jun 30, 2022 17:37
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Tiny Timbs posted:If you spend one night on Snake Island I will give you $10,000 Creepy old man with a British accent and a pencil mustache offers $10,000 to spend just one night on a haunted (by artillery) island.
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Jun 30, 2022 17:47
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Ukraine should now install on Snake island one of those huge hot air blow up dolls that’s just middle finger.
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Jun 30, 2022 17:58
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Does anyone have the image of "Russias Ukraine goals over time" where it just keeps shrinking?
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Jun 30, 2022 18:03
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Doccers posted:Does anyone have the image of "Russias Ukraine goals over time" where it just keeps shrinking? It would make a much better Gif avatar to annoy people with than those kinda homophobic photoshops.
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Jun 30, 2022 18:14
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Alchenar posted:It would make a much better Gif avatar to annoy people with than those kinda homophobic photoshops. it was like "February" with force lines pointing from the north to Kyiv, and from the south to Odessa, then "March" where those were removed, and the force lines were now pointing at Kharkiv and Mykolaiv, and then "April" it was further east again, and then "May" where it was the Izium offensive, and then "June" where it was pointing at Sieverodonesk..
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Jun 30, 2022 18:19
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Doccers posted:Does anyone have the image of "Russias Ukraine goals over time" where it just keeps shrinking? Have this version.  Needs to be updated for July.
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Jun 30, 2022 18:21
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Ikasuhito posted:Have this version. Perfect! thanks!
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Jun 30, 2022 18:23
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cinci zoo sniper posted:https://twitter.com/uaweapons/status/1542448134411980801 https://twitter.com/AzovMolozensky/status/1542448423101640705?s=20&t=sbIFs8ZH4PKRVMfSWgVdMA lol
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Jun 30, 2022 18:34
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iv46vi posted:Ukraine should now install on Snake island one of those huge hot air blow up dolls that’s just middle finger. Unironically a statue of the post stamp with the soldier flipping off the Moskva, which is listing and on fire. And the fire is a real torch.
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Jun 30, 2022 18:35
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https://twitter.com/henryjfoy/status/1542559122599673857Henrik Zetterberg posted:https://twitter.com/AzovMolozensky/status/1542448423101640705?s=20&t=sbIFs8ZH4PKRVMfSWgVdMA Chornobaivka reference 
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Jun 30, 2022 18:43
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I didn't understand any of those words, but it was still pretty funny. And accurate.
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Jun 30, 2022 18:43
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Doccers posted:Does anyone have the image of "Russias Ukraine goals over time" where it just keeps shrinking? I'm not sure their strategic goals have changed. Staggering incompetence and arrogance have forced them to relocate and refocus forces to Donbas and on a tactical level operations have shrunk in scope due to the impotence of their forces but the strategic objectives may remain the same. It would require a very long Special Operation(tm) to achieve them but the Russian government may be willing to pay that price and it doesn't look like the Russian people particularly object to that. The only question is if they have enough kit to carry through with it.
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Jun 30, 2022 18:44
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Owling Howl posted:I'm not sure their strategic goals have changed. Staggering incompetence and arrogance have forced them to relocate and refocus forces to Donbas and on a tactical level operations have shrunk in scope due to the impotence of their forces but the strategic objectives may remain the same. It would require a very long Special Operation(tm) to achieve them but the Russian government may be willing to pay that price and it doesn't look like the Russian people particularly object to that. The only question is if they have enough kit to carry through with it. At a very minimum their strategic goals included a regime change. It is entirely implausible they are still pursuing that. At some point they pivoted to something that looks roughly like a land corridor to Crimea and as much land in the east as they can hold. I do agree with you that the shrinking estimation of how much that land is is primarily tactical rather than strategic as a consideration, but abandoning a goal of regime change and installing a puppet government over the country is surely strategic.
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Jun 30, 2022 18:48
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the popes toes posted:Maybe, just maybe, they ran out of soldiers willing to occupy Snake Island. I doubt it was a question of being able to send men there. Soldiers don't get asked for preferences. I don't know what the conditions on the island are like, but considering that Russians captured the site intact and Ukrainians had plenty of time to prepare, there probably were bunkers and trenches so men could take shelter. But there's just no point if the enemy keeps blowing up your heavy equipment and sinking your supply boats.
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Jun 30, 2022 18:49
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Owling Howl posted:I'm not sure their strategic goals have changed. Staggering incompetence and arrogance have forced them to relocate and refocus forces to Donbas and on a tactical level operations have shrunk in scope due to the impotence of their forces but the strategic objectives may remain the same. It would require a very long Special Operation(tm) to achieve them but the Russian government may be willing to pay that price and it doesn't look like the Russian people particularly object to that. The only question is if they have enough kit to carry through with it. They very blatently expected Kyiv and many other cities to surrender. They brought dress uniforms for the victory parade. This aim failed to such an extreme degree that they pretended it was actually the most disastrous fient in human history, and their strategic goal had always been extremely small.
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Jun 30, 2022 18:51
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Bug Squash posted:They very blatently expected Kyiv and many other cities to surrender. The very first paratrooper videos from Kyiv during the first day of the invasion are surreal. There's one where VDV dudes are right in Kyiv area during the daytime and just casually chat with a reporter on the street and crack jokes with him. Literally didn't anticipate a war scenario and expected everyone to run away. I assume actually getting shot at was a huge surprise to them. Rad Russian fucked around with this message at 19:14 on Jun 30, 2022 |
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Jun 30, 2022 19:11
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I'm just wondering how the war in Russia is still so popular? I guess popular isn't the right word, maybe tolerated? I know decades of "evil NATO" and state run media but there just doesn't seem to be any other way to spin this than a botched invasion for territorial gains by Russia that has now turned into Soviet-Afghan 2.0 but with more significant economic repercussions at home.
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Jun 30, 2022 19:25
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Popete posted:I'm just wondering how the war in Russia is still so popular? I guess popular isn't the right word, maybe tolerated? I know decades of "evil NATO" and state run media but there just doesn't seem to be any other way to spin this than a botched invasion for territorial gains by Russia that has now turned into Soviet-Afghan 2.0 but with more significant economic repercussions at home. Older Russians are terminally infected with brainworms. Younger Russians who have some idea of what's going on aren't saying poo poo and lie to pollsters because they don't want to go to jail or fall out of a window. Russia has also been able to use industrial reserves to keep the plates spinning and stuff on store shelves so there's not really any real pain yet. Everything will come crashing down at some point, and then either the leadership changes or it becomes North Korea v2.0
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Jun 30, 2022 19:34
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Popete posted:I'm just wondering how the war in Russia is still so popular? I guess popular isn't the right word, maybe tolerated? I know decades of "evil NATO" and state run media but there just doesn't seem to be any other way to spin this than a botched invasion for territorial gains by Russia that has now turned into Soviet-Afghan 2.0 but with more significant economic repercussions at home. Well, sanctions tend to increase patriotic fervor in affected populations. There's a long history of this with America's sanctions on Latin American countries.
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Jun 30, 2022 19:40
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