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Rigel posted:Just gonna throw out what seems to be the obvious, to me but maybe it isn't. I know it will take a while through training, logistics, etc. But if Ukraine eventually got their own fleet of modern NATO fighter jets later this year, isn't that kind of..... game over for Russia's "special operation"? I keep hearing about how bad Russia's air defense is, and we obviously have all the munitions they could ever need for those jets. If Ukraine gained air superiority, wouldn't Russia be completely hosed at that point? This is really speculative. How many planes are we talking about? You've got to think of the logistics of keeping all those planes flying..it's not just giving aircraft. So yes they may be able to do a spectacular sortie. Russia has to be pushed back gradually. It's probably not going to end in a huge encirclement as Russia has a pretty nice highway like territorial zone. Unless Ukraine plans to liberate Mariupol and split the front in half it's just not going to happen. Russia's territorial zone will recede like water in low tide. And Ukraine will bend like a reed in the wind.
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Jul 22, 2022 05:28
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WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:This is really speculative. How many planes are we talking about? You've got to think of the logistics of keeping all those planes flying..it's not just giving aircraft. So yes they may be able to do a spectacular sortie. well, since the US is making the commitment to train a lot of pilots, I am assuming the plan would be a large number of jets that they could maintain and use
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Jul 22, 2022 05:50
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GhostofJohnMuir posted:good news, but i understand ukraine's hesitancy. attempting a land at odessa through the safe passage seems impossible given ukraine's new anti-ship missiles and russia diminished operational capacity, but russia's conduct over the last year has trained me to assume there's some nefarious purpose behind their every single action This could literally be it. Russians failed to establish a blocade so they spin it as a "gesture of good will". Same as when they were forced out of Kiyv outskirts and Snake island.
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Jul 22, 2022 05:52
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Rigel posted:Just gonna throw out what seems to be the obvious, to me but maybe it isn't. I know it will take a while through training, logistics, etc. But if Ukraine eventually got their own fleet of modern NATO fighter jets later this year, isn't that kind of..... game over for Russia's "special operation"? I keep hearing about how bad Russia's air defense is, and we obviously have all the munitions they could ever need for those jets. If Ukraine gained air superiority, wouldn't Russia be completely hosed at that point? If Ukraine gains air superiority and can maintain it then yeah its pretty much game over. Russia is not going to be able to run the amount of troops it needs to places if they are getting the absolute poo poo bombed out of them.
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Jul 22, 2022 05:53
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Regarding airplanes, the senate would have to also pass the legislation or some form of reconciliation bill. Right now, only the house has approved funding for pilot and maintainer training. Ukraine’s Air Force spokesperson has said that while they have English speaking pilots, they would expect transition training to take six months. https://www.airforcemag.com/as-ukrainian-pilot-training-passes-house-ndaa-legislators-work-to-overcome-roadblocks/
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Jul 22, 2022 05:58
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Now can we talk about giving Longbow Apaches to Ukraine? A few squads of those, ripple-fire radar Hellfires in LOAL mode from a safe cover position, war's over in a week. Just like Longbow 2.
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Jul 22, 2022 06:13
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Telsa Cola posted:I really don't understand how this argument is going on as long as it has been given that we have many many concrete examples of how hosed the air environment is in Ukraine for low and slow aircraft. To the A-10's credit, if any fighting force could surprise us by letting a wholly obsolete aircraft gently caress them up SOMEHOW, russia is on scene to play the role
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Jul 22, 2022 06:16
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Mr. Apollo posted:I think you mean F-16XL No...maybe...yes. Look, everyone makes typos. Just look at what could have been. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ecM1-ISNeHE
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Jul 22, 2022 06:37
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Blue Footed Booby posted:Lol I mean the A-1 Skyraider had two air-to-air kills on jets but I don't think it would get the job done in Ukraine, either.
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Jul 22, 2022 07:13
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Polish MOD confirms more weapon contracts either signed or in final negotiation stages for Poland, including: - 48x FA-50 jets - 180 K2 tanks (to be completed in Poland) - 250 new Abrams - 116 used Abrams (I think these are already coming in) The T-72 fleet is not going to be maintained, mainly due to parts sourcing issues. Poland is also finalizing the development and initial order of Ottokar Brzoza, a self-propelled, Brimstone-ready light AT platform. https://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadom...750&s=BoxOpLink
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Jul 22, 2022 11:57
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This could be the kremlin. Think about it! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YrlClqbQStw&t=284s (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Jul 22, 2022 12:30
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Fellas, I think aircraft power levels theorycrafting derail has had a good run.Kraftwerk posted:Any hope that Ukraine gets territory back soon? There’s more and more associated press and Reuters articles making the rounds saying Ukraine likely won’t get all its territory back. Which means despite the serious costs and heavy fighting they still managed to cut another piece off Ukraine and come back later to try it again. I don't think this thread can say anything to placate your doomerism. Hope is always there, but we can only wait and see with what will actually happen. Rigel posted:Just gonna throw out what seems to be the obvious, to me but maybe it isn't. I know it will take a while through training, logistics, etc. But if Ukraine eventually got their own fleet of modern NATO fighter jets later this year, isn't that kind of..... game over for Russia's "special operation"? I keep hearing about how bad Russia's air defense is, and we obviously have all the munitions they could ever need for those jets. If Ukraine gained air superiority, wouldn't Russia be completely hosed at that point? I feel that “bad Russian air-defence” stories are mostly a carry-over anecdote from them failing to do DEAD/SEAD/BBQ/other important American acronyms at the start of this to actually kill off the Ukrainian air force. When properly concentrated, like they are now in the very short areas of active frontline, they force Ukrainian air force to do the same things as the Russian does, using aircraft as Grads and whatnot. The only things they may not have a good answer for is drones that can fit in a backpack, dropping grenades with 3D-printed fins on top of things, and GMLRS rockets. cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 12:39 on Jul 22, 2022 |
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Jul 22, 2022 12:37
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MassiveSky posted:This could be the kremlin. Think about it! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bxBVc2cSFeI (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Jul 22, 2022 12:42
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Some people twittering about this. https://twitter.com/lilygrutcher/status/1550437897022701568?s=20&t=ydw6xRE64Hq8-wjq6CkdQQ Probably a wild overestimation or exagerration. I can't fathom any reason why there would be anywhere close to 2k soldiers hanging out there even knowing what we know of the Russian army. In any case good news even if it is just 50.
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Jul 22, 2022 12:58
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Owling Howl posted:Probably a wild overestimation or exagerration. I can't fathom any reason why there would be anywhere close to 2k soldiers hanging out there even knowing what we know of the Russian army. In any case good news even if it is just 50. Nope, just OSINT twitters overexcited to get the scoop on something. https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1550436798475665409?s=20&t=Ow7rchmN18dXfEpl30-Qrw
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Jul 22, 2022 13:15
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If DCS taught me anything, it's that if you give F-15s and AMRAAMs to enough 12-15 y.o. then the red pilots will all end up ragequitting to another map. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Jul 22, 2022 13:30
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Kchama posted:It would do about as well as the SU-25 does in Ukraine, which is not amazing. The very specific close air support role supposes a completely safe environment, which doesn't exist in Ukraine. And again would mostly be used to sling long-range rockets at enemies, and not in an actual "brrrt" CAS role. You seem to be lasered in on it brrrting things but it is not going to. CAS planes are not used like that in Ukraine because it'd be suicidal. There's no long line of soldiers or lightly armored vehicles completely unprotected from planes just hanging out in the open. Like as a suggestion to replace SU-25 losses? It works there. But the gun isn't going to be seeing much practical use. Believe it or not, the A-10 was not designed to operate in a “completely safe” environment. It was designed for a peer conflict between NATO and the Warsaw Pact in the 1980s. Operationally it was hoped NATO could achieve air superiority, but not air supremacy; and it was assumed the Warsaw Pact forces would have MANPADs. It has only ever been used in a complete air supremacy environment. What is more, you’re right… it is probably as survivable in Ukraine as the Su-25; however, the A-10 is orders of magnitude more capable of an aircraft when it comes to the type, intensity, and duration of close air support it can provide. All of which is completely besides the point, because unlike the F-16 and F-15, as far as I know there are zero Ukrainian Air Force pilots semi-familiar with the air frame, which means a year of training at least if the Ukrainians actually wanted to use them… a thought I find very dubious. Ps. I cannot believe I a defending the A-10; and I am not really, I am just saying that they would on paper improvements over the Su-25. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Jul 22, 2022 14:13
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Allegedly an intercepted communication between a russian soldier and a relative back home: https://www.yahoo.com/news/losing-moscow-never-admit-russian-134635479.html quote:“We’re losing now,” the purported soldier says, prompting an indignant response from his female relative, who replies, “Well it’s you guys who are losing there, but they are winning everywhere [else].”
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Jul 22, 2022 14:18
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Is there something I've missed that's changed about the potential for planes being sent to Ukraine? I was under the impression that was off the table so I'm reading the news of Ukrainian pilots being trained in the US as preparing to switch them over to NATO kit as quickly as possible after the fighting ends rather than something that's going to affect the outcome of this round of conflict.
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Jul 22, 2022 14:25
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It’s so curved that everything’s sad.
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Jul 22, 2022 14:29
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I think that's Croatia's motto
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Jul 22, 2022 14:34
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https://mobile.twitter.com/babaikit/status/1550467802028441601 Russian convoy destroyed near lysychanak. Not sure of displacement yet.
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Jul 22, 2022 14:48
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Deformed Church posted:Is there something I've missed that's changed about the potential for planes being sent to Ukraine? I was under the impression that was off the table so I'm reading the news of Ukrainian pilots being trained in the US as preparing to switch them over to NATO kit as quickly as possible after the fighting ends rather than something that's going to affect the outcome of this round of conflict. Fundamentally, no. It's a current topic because the House appropriation bill contained $100M for training Ukrainians on American aircraft, and the DoD has been openly talking about transferring American planes to Ukraine. Exactly what systems and in what quantity and on what time scale is completely left out. I would think that next year at the earliest to get American hardware in situ. If the war is still going by then, they might be useful. It's a long-term issue regardless.
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Jul 22, 2022 14:57
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Ukraine and Russia have lost nearly comparable amounts of aircraft, with the advantage going slightly to Russia despite them having vastly more craft total. And as mentioned, ukrainian pilots are yeeting like airborne grads. Where is the idea that Russia has no air defense coming from?
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Jul 22, 2022 16:32
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Edgar Allen Ho posted:Ukraine and Russia have lost nearly comparable amounts of aircraft, with the advantage going slightly to Russia despite them having vastly more craft total. And as mentioned, ukrainian pilots are yeeting like airborne grads. Where is the idea that Russia has no air defense coming from? This. It still exists, and it would absolutely maul A-10s.
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Jul 22, 2022 16:41
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FishMcCool posted:Allegedly an intercepted communication between a russian soldier and a relative back home: Interesting. We focus on ammo for the insane artillery barrages that Russia's been doing, but when you're shoving shell after shell through them you also need barrels for just that reason (well, that and avoiding catastrophic failure=boom). Sounds like their spare parts are also getting heavily interdicted or running out; I wonder if we have stats for their stockpiles.
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Jul 22, 2022 16:47
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FishMcCool posted:Allegedly an intercepted communication between a russian soldier and a relative back home: Can you fire enough ammunition to make barrel droop permanent? US tanks have a mechanism for handling even very extreme barrel droop, which becomes an issue with long-range shots after putting a few rounds through the barrel within a few minutes of each other. Even if the droop is permanent, I'd assume that Russian artillery would have the means to account for it. Is this just not the case?
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Jul 22, 2022 17:21
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Ynglaur posted:Can you fire enough ammunition to make barrel droop permanent? US tanks have a mechanism for handling even very extreme barrel droop, which becomes an issue with long-range shots after putting a few rounds through the barrel within a few minutes of each other. Even if the droop is permanent, I'd assume that Russian artillery would have the means to account for it. Is this just not the case? I might be misremembering but russian doctrine was to do field repair only for very basic stuff and just receive full unit replacement while the weared out units were shipped for refurbish back in the depot. They might not have spare barrels in their supplies.
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Jul 22, 2022 17:30
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FishMcCool posted:Allegedly an intercepted communication between a russian soldier and a relative back home: Have you seen the conscripts from Moscow? They've got curved artillery guns. Curved. Artillery guns.
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Jul 22, 2022 17:32
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Ikasuhito posted:Have you seen the conscripts from Moscow? No one has, they all got uni deferments.
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Jul 22, 2022 17:36
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What happens if you fire an artillery past the point where it needs a barrel replacement? Does the accuracy just diminish like crazy or does it become a safety issue?
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Jul 22, 2022 17:37
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Charliegrs posted:What happens if you fire an artillery past the point where it needs a barrel replacement? Does the accuracy just diminish like crazy or does it become a safety issue? Theoretically both. That said, it takes a whole hell of a lot for an artillery piece to catastrophically fail to the point where it becomes dangerous. I forget how to find it, but a few pages back there were videos of Russians using wooden posts to shove a shell into an artillery piece, you do that when the shell isn't made to spec and/or when the artillery barrel is warped. The warping is likely to make the piece unusable before it explodes into a soldier's torso.
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Jul 22, 2022 17:44
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Charliegrs posted:What happens if you fire an artillery past the point where it needs a barrel replacement? Does the accuracy just diminish like crazy or does it become a safety issue? It'll break open like a banana peel I'm sure you've seen it in a cartoon but it happens
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Jul 22, 2022 17:54
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I wondered about the "curved" thing in that correspondence too, but I would have to imagine just wearing out the rifling is going to be enough to ruin any precision they had.
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Jul 22, 2022 18:12
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 holy poo poo https://twitter.com/RFERL/status/1550496497246035969?s=20&t=oQrWanHQ6RMIoqE2M38uUg There are real names and faces attached to the reports of Russian soldiers mutinying now. There's video. This is definitely an escalation and it'll be interesting so see where things go from here Soldier's mothers actively putting their names and faces on complaints about soldiers' treatment is what started the end of the Chechen wars.
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Jul 22, 2022 18:13
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KitConstantine posted:Soldier's mothers actively putting their names and faces on complaints about soldiers' treatment is what started the end of the Chechen wars.
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Jul 22, 2022 18:19
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Rocko Bonaparte posted:I wondered about the "curved" thing in that correspondence too, but I would have to imagine just wearing out the rifling is going to be enough to ruin any precision they had. Idk what the original russian was, but in my non-expert and non-military jargon experience, I'm pretty sure "curved" is referring to barrel droop given words that often get translated ot "curved." Might have been better to say "crooked" or "bent."
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Jul 22, 2022 18:25
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Victis posted:It'll break open like a banana peel so there's a few failure modes here that can be interesting, #1: Banana Peel - Rifled artillery and tank guns (and anything really), most rifled barrels have the rifling cut into them, and this cut becomes a weak point. When you get severe metal fatigue or an overpressure event towards the end of the barrel, they tend to go "Loony tunes banana peel", where the barrel splits into 3, 4, 5, more (depending on how many rifling cuts there were) strips. Commonly seen with Elmer Fudd in loony tunes, and was fairly common after the switch from black powder to smokeless powder due to burn rates, pressure rates, etc etc. #2: Donut creation - This happens when you have a liquid sitting in front of the projectile before firing. Rarer on tanks/artillery but can happen in naval guns (ingesting seawater) or artillery if you get enough rain into it without checking (Only heard rumors of this tho). Upon firing, the projectile and liquid are forced out the barrel, but at some point it may reach a stage where it's easier for the liquid to go sideways into the barrel, bulging it outwards, to get out of the way of the projectile. This is something I've seen the result of on high velocity rifles, and if you look down the barrel you see a nice "Donut" line about 3/4ths the way down. if it happens repeatedly, the donut grows larger and at some point the steel cannot handle the pressure and the end just severs cleanly off on the next shot. You now have an impromptu short barreled rifle! #3: Classic Overpressure - This is when something either fully obstructs the projectile, or there's a problem with the powder charge, such as an overcharge, an undercharge (!), the wrong type of propellent used, propellent breakdown or contamination, etc. Propellent is not an explosive, it's supposed to burn at a very steady rate. This normally results in peak pressure about 1/3rd (I may be wrong here!) through the firing process where maximum pressure is reached, and this is what a gun is designed around, and usually "proofed" to 2 or 3x this design pressure. Any of the abovementioned charge failures can result in a short spike, as opposed to a longer buildup, that exceeds even the proofed rating, and as a result you usually see the breech fail and fly apart, rather spectacularly. On a rifle, this can injure someone, sometimes fatally. On a large bore artillery or tank cannon, this will wipe out entire crews. This happened recently with a privately owned WWII Tank Destroyer in.. Nevada? Utah? Wrong powder was utilized in the case charge, and the old breech couldn't handle it, and everyone inside the turret was instantly killed. This is why you periodically see old tanks that have been pressed into service as artillery pieces, fired by means of a string running through a hole/hatch in the turret and fired from outside. A sagging barrel or overheated barrel is more prone to failure mode #1. Improper maintenance (overoiling by poorly trained troops to try and get a troublesome mechanism to work) usually causes #2. Improperly stored ammunition causes #3. I would venture to guess Russia's seeing a lot of "All of the above" lately. (An interesting note on #3: an undercharge of powder can actually lead to a pressure spike, as the primer is able to ignite more of the powder at once than normally is possible. An additional note is one of the myriad of reasons the US finally retired the Iowa class battleships, is some navy supply schmuck decided for some unknown reason, to mix a bunch of various batches of powder together, which caused them to become VERY inconsistent, which utterly ruins any accuracy. Supply of this propellent then became very short, as it's no longer produced. This may have also had something to do with the breech failure on the Iowa in the 80's, which killed everyone in the gunhouse area of the turret, and rendered it permanently inoperable for the rest of the ship's service, but that's a whole other can o worms).
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Jul 22, 2022 18:26
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Budzilla posted:I don't want to nick-pick but Abkhazia is Georgia. I know. That's where the Russian soldiers in the video were told the base they were being sent to was located, not where they are from. They're from Russia according to the article. Abkhazia is also a breakaway province of Georgia who's 'fight for independence' is supported by (shockingly enough) Russia!
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Jul 22, 2022 18:32
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Doccers posted:
lol, you're leaving out the best part, which is that the navy tried to pin all of the blame on one living sailor and one dead sailor by spinning that they were gay lovers, and the dead one blew it up on purpose because the living one broke up with him.
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