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How are u posted:I assume the only way to handle the Russian troops at the NPP at this point is to surround it and starve them out. Another smoking related incident https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1560331461135417345
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Aug 18, 2022 20:18
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Dwesa posted:I think there are still Ukrainian NPP workers. Significantly, whereas these previous major supply depot attacks were in Crimea and other occupied territory, this is the first one inside Russia itself. I guess the terrible state of Russian security at these sites shouldn't come as much of a surprise (assuming at this point this is the work of infiltration teams planting explosives), but still, it's pretty amazing that these facilities aren't more locked down after what happened in Crimea. *edit for clarity* Chalks fucked around with this message at 21:08 on Aug 18, 2022 |
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Aug 18, 2022 20:46
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Chalks posted:Significantly, whereas these previous attacks were in Crimea and other occupied territory, this is the first one inside Russia itself. First one in the last couple of weeks, you mean.
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Aug 18, 2022 20:49
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Chalks posted:Significantly, whereas these previous attacks were in Crimea and other occupied territory, this is the first one inside Russia itself. Not true! Ukraine sent helis into Belgorod to rocket pod a few things months ago
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Aug 18, 2022 21:01
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cinci zoo sniper posted:First one in the last couple of weeks, you mean. Have we had large scale ammo depot attacks on Russian soil previously? My understanding is that these tactics started with the HIMARS strikes in recently occupied areas, followed by the recent attacks against bases in Crimea, but I may be mistaken. I'm aware of the handful of helicopter incursions against oil depots and a couple of minor missile strikes against targets within Russia but near the border, but I don't think anyone was claiming they had much strategic significance - certainly but none of this massive destruction of ammo and fuel stockpiles we're seeing now. *edit* I see that my original post was unclear, I will clarify
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Aug 18, 2022 21:06
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yes ukraine has been blowing up poo poo in russia semi-regularly for months now. also a bit in belarus (supposedly) but if that is indeed them then they've been very restrained about it also belgorod is near the border and indeed is the same place that they were blowing stuff up in russia previously (because Russia routes a significant amount of their materiel and munitions and troops through there)
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Aug 18, 2022 21:13
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Considering that Belarus hasn’t even tried making serious noise about Ukraine blowing anything there, it’s probably actual accidents, if there was anything of the sort. Although it wouldn’t be above Lukashenko to figure out how to stay quite about that as 5D chess move to say that he’s not awestruck with Putin’s war.
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Aug 18, 2022 21:21
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lukashenko is currently keeping the belarusian armed forces in position to repel a polish/latvian/lithuanian invasion that is no doubt imminent and very critical to avert
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Aug 18, 2022 21:34
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Herstory Begins Now posted:lukashenko is currently keeping the belarusian armed forces in position to repel a polish/latvian/lithuanian invasion that is no doubt imminent and very critical to avert It's the only thing preventing reabsorption of Belarus into a reborn Polish-Lithuanian commonwealth! All those people with Pohonya flags are not exactly hiding their goals, are they?
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Aug 18, 2022 21:38
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Another bonfire, Stary Oskol is also a bit further from the border https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1560353028451999744 Seems like there is a fair amount of activity tonight https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1560358564014743554
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Aug 18, 2022 21:54
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the popes toes posted:Come to think of it, yes, this is exactly what I look for in a staunch ally. I scrolled through maybe 100 retweets / comments and didn’t even see a single one that says a PM should not be allowed to ever do anything besides work and (maybe) sleep. The summary headline about "critics” seems kind of… fabricated, whole cloth?
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Aug 18, 2022 21:58
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Belbek and Kerch are a long way from Ukrainian positions. I guess you could fly a TB2 to Belbek but other than that I don't know what Ukraine has that could get there. Nothing should really be able to reach Kerch given that you have to cross a lot of Russian-occupied airspace.
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Aug 18, 2022 22:03
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The reports of a strike at Belbek could be a big deal if they're accurate, but there are a bunch of conflicting accounts so it may turn out to be nothing. https://twitter.com/maria_avdv/status/1560369163222323204 *edit* removed a video that reported to be of that attack since replies are saying it's an old video *update* Looks like Belbek is nothing significant, explosions heard were likely air defences engaging something: https://twitter.com/IntelCrab/status/1560374494325268487 Chalks fucked around with this message at 22:45 on Aug 18, 2022 |
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Aug 18, 2022 22:03
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Owling Howl posted:Belbek and Kerch are a long way from Ukrainian positions. I guess you could fly a TB2 to Belbek but other than that I don't know what Ukraine has that could get there. Nothing should really be able to reach Kerch given that you have to cross a lot of Russian-occupied airspace. Any of Ukraine’s fixed wing air craft could get there easily; however, that seems like a pretty crazy and semi-suicidal trip to take.
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Aug 18, 2022 22:06
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Saladman posted:I scrolled through maybe 100 retweets / comments and didn’t even see a single one that says a PM should not be allowed to ever do anything besides work and (maybe) sleep. The summary headline about "critics” seems kind of… fabricated, whole cloth? There's one outraged Finn, I think. But usually Finnish outrage is when they move like a meter farther from you at the bus stop so it's probably fake.
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Aug 18, 2022 22:23
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God destroying 20+ planes over a two week period is just insane. I mean that's a lot of loving sorties that can't be run or will be run with less planes. Which means more AA per plane. If Russia continues to lose ammo and planes the war is going to go to hell in a very short window. Orders come to assault with no CAS and no Ammo. That is absolutely the worst outcome for a Frontline soldier to he under. Especially if Ukraine knocks the AA out. Ukrianian planes will be able to fly freely and achieve air control. Not superiority but control. And BLOW. THAT. BRIDGE.
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Aug 18, 2022 22:34
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HonorableTB posted:What are the chances that Russia's probably going to try a false flag by attacking the nuke plant and blaming Ukraine for it? I'm 50/50 on it They're absolutely telegraphing their willingness to blow it up in the hopes that the threat will force Ukraine into accepting Russian conquest. It's a stupid strategy but they're trying it. And the danger is that trying that kind of dumb blackmail brinksmanship has the effect of talking yourself into doing the stupid thing. The more Russia makes threatening gestures at the NPP to no great effect, the more they'll come to believe they have to blow it up to show they really mean business. The fact it's an apocalyptically stupid plan that will backfire instantly won't stop them. That's the whole story of this dumb loving war.
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Aug 18, 2022 22:36
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Often Abbreviated posted:They're absolutely telegraphing their willingness to blow it up in the hopes that the threat will force Ukraine into accepting Russian conquest. It's a stupid strategy but they're trying it. And the danger is that trying that kind of dumb blackmail brinksmanship has the effect of talking yourself into doing the stupid thing. The more Russia makes threatening gestures at the NPP to no great effect, the more they'll come to believe they have to blow it up to show they really mean business. I keep saying this because I think it goes without saying, but again… if the Russian Federation causes a radiological disaster it would be turning civilian nuclear power plants into a weapon of mass destruction, and it would be the equivalent of just using a nuclear weapon. There would be serious international consequences that go beyond just sanctions. Not to mention they’d literally be blowing 95% of the fallout back onto the Russian Federation. Russians know this, and if Putin and the Russian military are the tiniest bit rational they will never do it. That doesn’t mean they won’t blow up a turbine, or threaten to blow up reactors—just like with the nuclear saber rattling—but they will not do anything that causes a reactor vessel to breach or radiological contamination.
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Aug 18, 2022 22:57
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ZombieLenin posted:
Putin won't deliberately order it, that I'll grant.
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Aug 18, 2022 23:07
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I don't disagree with any of the detail, and you could well be right that they only blow up the NPP a little bit as a further threat (blowing up a turbine), but one of the big lessons of this fiasco is that these people do not always act in a way that we consider rational. They don't think like we do. Spreading a cloud of radioactive fallout over your own country and triggering a massive international response is utterly, unbelievable stupid and irrational but they will do it anyway if they feel Russia's feelings have been sufficiently hurt.
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Aug 18, 2022 23:08
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Saladman posted:I scrolled through maybe 100 retweets / comments and didn’t even see a single one that says a PM should not be allowed to ever do anything besides work and (maybe) sleep. The summary headline about "critics” seems kind of… fabricated, whole cloth? People who don't like her hate this. People who like her support her on this. People who are meh on her are meh on this. There's some confusion about what's being said on the video. Some say it's "jauhojengi" which translates to "flour gang" which is, uh, weird? This has been taken as a reference to cocaine. Marin has said she's fine with taking a drug test. Another take is that it's "jallujengi" which means "booze gang". Either way it's a total waste of time. Nobody seriously thinks that a young mother and PM is a cocainist, they just want attention.
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Aug 18, 2022 23:09
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So.. Ukraine were working on a long range missile. What's the odds like on them being given enough technical assistance to have started being able to assemble them? Or maybe a nice little GPS guidance package that took a few months, but is now adapted to work? Or if say, a selection of most of the parts for, just for example, an old long range missile that fit in, say, a HIMARS pod. Maybe it needed some assembling and explosives and fuel adding. Then you could stick a 'Made in Ukraine' sticker on it and everything.
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Aug 18, 2022 23:19
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OzyMandrill posted:So.. Ukraine were working on a long range missile. What's the odds like on them being given enough technical assistance to have started being able to assemble them? Or maybe a nice little GPS guidance package that took a few months, but is now adapted to work? This seems to be a definite possibility. The problem is that none of the sites have shown any video or audio of such missiles. The problem with saboteurs is how did they carry all the explosives -- even if they're detonating found munitions the craters etc. Are too regular.
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Aug 18, 2022 23:21
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:This seems to be a definite possibility. The problem is that none of the sites have shown any video or audio of such missiles. I'm almost positive that at one of the munitions sites, it was night, you could see AA missiles going up. Which implies... e: or maybe it was just AA at one of the bridges.
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Aug 18, 2022 23:26
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The long range ones are ballistic and would have no rocket plume on descent at supersonic speeds. Would just be a faint line on a camera if anything.
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Aug 18, 2022 23:28
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OzyMandrill posted:So.. Ukraine were working on a long range missile. What's the odds like on them being given enough technical assistance to have started being able to assemble them? Or maybe a nice little GPS guidance package that took a few months, but is now adapted to work? Vova, please! It's not ATACMS, but АТАКМС, a completely unrelated, locally developed missile.
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Aug 18, 2022 23:31
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I’ve fallen off the thread and just wanna see where things are. The only content I’ve really been following is from the YouTuber Perun who talks more about procurement and economics of the ukraine war (which is actually pretty fascinating but are not necessarily war updates). Last I checked in, Russia was still making progress in taking over the Donbas. Crimea is out and a lot of the southeast major coastal cities are Russian controlled? My impression last time was that Russia was still making territorial gains slowly but consistently? If that was the case back then, is that still the case now? And on the wider scope, Finland and Sweden are still waiting for NATO membership but Turkey is probably going to want Kurds extradited? Did Hungary eventually agree to membership? And lastly, if there’a a reputable YT channel dedicated to making periodic war updates I’d like a link to it that way I bother the thread less. Thanks all
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Aug 18, 2022 23:38
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:This seems to be a definite possibility. The problem is that none of the sites have shown any video or audio of such missiles. You would probably keep that secret for as long as possible to limit the chance that Russia can take precautions and sniff out production facilities. Still not really any definite or convincing explanations.
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Aug 18, 2022 23:49
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https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1560358564014743554
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Aug 19, 2022 02:52
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buglord posted:I’ve fallen off the thread and just wanna see where things are. The only content I’ve really been following is from the YouTuber Perun who talks more about procurement and economics of the ukraine war (which is actually pretty fascinating but are not necessarily war updates). Russian advanced have mostly stalled since Ukraine gained longer-ranged artillery and also apparently even more courage because they've been blowing up stuff behind Russian lines, to the point that one of Crimea's Russian airports was blasted to pieces with a lot of planes lost.
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Aug 19, 2022 03:08
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Yeah, the pessimistic edge of the conversation is no longer "the Russian advance, slow though it may be, will never stop, will it?  ".The pessimistic take is now "ok, they have stopped and we're starting to talk about a Ukraine counteroffensive, but lets get realistic, what areas can Russians really be pushed out of, and how quickly? There's probably some places they will be dug in for a long time, right?  "
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Aug 19, 2022 03:11
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In today's New Yorker, a detailed photojournalism piece on the domestic costs of Russian war: Russia’s Republic of Grief One of the country’s poorest regions, Dagestan, is also the region that has lost the most men to the war in Ukraine. quote:[...] Click through for some excellent reporting and photography.
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Aug 19, 2022 03:17
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Discendo Vox posted:In today's New Yorker, a detailed photojournalism piece on the domestic costs of Russian war: Thanks for posting this, I was recently wondering if there was any reporting or information about how the republics are bearing the cost of the war. As a side note, if anyone else has any information about how outsourcing military casualties to the republics and minorities has happened previously, please post it here. That would be useful reading
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Aug 19, 2022 03:22
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Dagestanis, of course, are extremely likely to face discrimination if they ever try to get jobs in other parts of "Russia", often not being considered people of "Slavic appearance".
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Aug 19, 2022 03:25
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Another dawn is breaking in Kyiv, and it's still Ukrainian.   
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Aug 19, 2022 03:58
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Rigel posted:Yeah, the pessimistic edge of the conversation is no longer "the Russian advance, slow though it may be, will never stop, will it? The biggest change is really "how is Ukraine blowing up Crimea when they didn't have the capacity before nor was anyone willing to give it to them?". Because these recent strikes are surprising everyone.
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Aug 19, 2022 05:21
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FishBulbia posted:Wait, so the plant is still providing power to Ukraine? This is kinda hilarious. They can't make up their mind if this is a special operation or total war. there are logistical difficulties, but supposedly russia is planning on making the switch soon https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/08/9/7362536/ it isn't touch on in the article, but i have heard it suggested that during the power grid switch the reactor's pumps will be relying entirely on the emergency diesel generators. if for some reason the supply of diesel is interrupted, or the generators have issues before the plant is reconnected to the crimean grid, there is a large risk of reenacting fukushima. certainly not an operation that should be carried out in an active war zone, incredibly reckless if they actually go through with it
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Aug 19, 2022 05:33
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Deteriorata posted:Another dawn is breaking in Kyiv, and it's still Ukrainian. Your perseverance is commendable. Thank you for doing that. Re refugees status in Poland and their plans. My parents hosted two families in their house (i.e. mother and their children) and from this small simple I can gather that: - half will stay and try to build a new life in PL, half went back to Ukraine or other country, - huge challenge is for Ukrainians to learn Polish. You need to have at least decent command of if you are attending ground or high school. Some kids are quickly caching on but some are not or are unwilling to learn. Unfortunate the state did not provide any polish learning courses during spring and summer months. It was up to local government (in a very limited scope) or each individual to search for this opportunity and subsequently bear the costs. For those who will stay their success will demand in a very huge way how well they integrate. It is true that the cultures in Central and Eastern Europe are quite similar and additionally we have much shared history with Ukrainians, Belarusian and Lithuanians. But past is not present and there is much to do by both parties.
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Aug 19, 2022 05:40
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buglord posted:I’ve fallen off the thread and just wanna see where things are. The only content I’ve really been following is from the YouTuber Perun who talks more about procurement and economics of the ukraine war (which is actually pretty fascinating but are not necessarily war updates). Perun is indeed a good YTer to follow. The war for the Russians; isn't necessarily going in their favour, with minimal to negative gains along the front. No sign of a Ukrainian counter offensive in the traditional sense outside of the limited one in the Kherson region but they are degrading russian command and supply infrastructure quite nicely. edit: Hungary & Turkey will get "deals" to keep them on track. Just Another Lurker fucked around with this message at 07:01 on Aug 19, 2022 |
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Aug 19, 2022 06:58
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Considering that Belarus hasn’t even tried making serious noise about Ukraine blowing anything there, it’s probably actual accidents, if there was anything of the sort. Although it wouldn’t be above Lukashenko to figure out how to stay quite about that as 5D chess move to say that he’s not awestruck with Putin’s war. I wouldnt count on this being an indicator of anything. While russians are happy to consider an enormous explosion their own fuckup, Luka can't do it. His self image is all about order and how without his control everything will fall apart. Thus making any kind of noise will show that his control has failed. If you want my opinion, Ukranians are being clever. They caused real honest to god attacks on Crimea with who knows what weapons while being coy and congratulating cigarettes, while messaging Luka "we can do the same in Belarus too. You better behave."
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Aug 19, 2022 08:20
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