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HUGE PUBES A PLUS
Apr 30, 2005

e: wrong thread

HUGE PUBES A PLUS fucked around with this message at 00:05 on Sep 13, 2022

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mobby_6kl
Aug 9, 2009

by Fluffdaddy

Is this a metaphor about Belarus? :confused:

KillHour
Oct 28, 2007


mobby_6kl posted:

Is this a metaphor about Belarus? :confused:

It's canon that Belarus is Miles "Tails" Prower, yes.

Sekenr
Dec 12, 2013




mobby_6kl posted:

Is this a metaphor about Belarus? :confused:

Fun thing about Belarus: people who sabotaged rail relay boxes had their knees shot, the rest are facing death under new laws and Stadler is repairing said relay boxes because its in the contract

Grape
Nov 16, 2017

Happily shilling for China!

Brain65 posted:

Majority of population in 2014 was indifferent, and they'll be indifferent in 2022/23 as well.

I.... extremely doubt this is even possible for them to feel.

Tigey
Apr 6, 2015

mobby_6kl posted:

Is this a metaphor about Belarus? :confused:

I assumed it was a continuation of UK nuclear weapons autonomy chat

mobby_6kl
Aug 9, 2009

by Fluffdaddy

Sekenr posted:

Fun thing about Belarus: people who sabotaged rail relay boxes had their knees shot, the rest are facing death under new laws and Stadler is repairing said relay boxes because its in the contract
Well that's not a very fun thing at all! :mad:

Risky Bisquick
Jan 18, 2008

PLEASE LET ME WRITE YOUR VICTIM IMPACT STATEMENT SO I CAN FURTHER DEMONSTRATE THE CALAMITY THAT IS OUR JUSTICE SYSTEM.



Buglord
Russian soldier calls wife, ends up crying talking about the conditions and loading 200s
https://mobile.twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1569451673260806145

Akratic Method
Mar 9, 2013

It's going to pay off eventually--I'm sure of it.

Any day now.

OddObserver posted:

https://twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/1569433181119737857

(Relevant since Russia is supposedly a peacekeeper there and is also supposedly Armenian ally).

I've really been wondering at what point all the little conflicts frozen by the threat of Russian power start to thaw because that threat just isn't chilling enough anymore. Looks like it's starting up.

Owling Howl
Jul 17, 2019

Akratic Method posted:

I've really been wondering at what point all the little conflicts frozen by the threat of Russian power start to thaw because that threat just isn't chilling enough anymore. Looks like it's starting up.

No time like the present to gently caress around in the Caucasus and Central Asia. Armenia is appealing to the CSTO / Russian NATO but I doubt Russia is in a good position to do anything apart from air support except Aserbaijan got S-300s.and Buks....

KitConstantine
Jan 11, 2013

Maps? Maps
https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1569468198122053636?s=20&t=6puXxjITE79G-0rKCSA-bQ
https://twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1569478920851918848?s=20&t=6puXxjITE79G-0rKCSA-bQ
https://twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1569478947477557249?s=20&t=6puXxjITE79G-0rKCSA-bQ
https://twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1569478969698951170?s=20&t=6puXxjITE79G-0rKCSA-bQ

Animated visualizations (one high and one low effort)
https://twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1569487313381765123?s=20&t=6puXxjITE79G-0rKCSA-bQ
https://twitter.com/AEI/status/1569439107222491137?s=20&t=6puXxjITE79G-0rKCSA-bQ

KitConstantine
Jan 11, 2013

Putting this quick summary in here even though it's technically not Ukraine - definitely a related conflict for a few reasons.

Thread on why Azerbaijan might have made this move at this time - author is a journalist/academic that studies the South Caucasus
https://twitter.com/LaurenceBroers/status/1569456134196436992?s=20&t=6puXxjITE79G-0rKCSA-bQ
Bottom line:
https://twitter.com/LaurenceBroers/status/1569456147828195328?s=20&t=6puXxjITE79G-0rKCSA-bQ
https://twitter.com/LaurenceBroers/status/1569456152861372417?s=20&t=6puXxjITE79G-0rKCSA-bQ
Some reports:
[url]https://twitter.com/GabrielCSGavin/status/1569450505264562176?s=20&t=6puXxjITE79G-0rKCSA-bQ[/url
https://twitter.com/Jake_Hanrahan/status/1569467138112651265?s=20&t=6puXxjITE79G-0rKCSA-bQ
https://twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/1569481579956936706?s=20&t=gf4cGZ45_poF95KuMZVMTg

Current situation
https://twitter.com/Caucasuswar/status/1569480244155027457?s=20&t=6puXxjITE79G-0rKCSA-bQ
https://twitter.com/Caucasuswar/status/1569486496742375426?s=20&t=6puXxjITE79G-0rKCSA-bQ
Russia is supposed to be Peacekeeping - what are they up to?

Depends who you ask, pt 1
https://twitter.com/bolzhang/status/1569460482674663424?s=20&t=6puXxjITE79G-0rKCSA-bQ
pt 2
https://twitter.com/Caucasuswar/status/1569448422956224512?s=20&t=6puXxjITE79G-0rKCSA-bQ
And pt 3
https://twitter.com/Caucasuswar/status/1569495222413070338?s=20&t=6puXxjITE79G-0rKCSA-bQ

The above account is and @NeilPHauer are going to be very good sources on this btw - Hauer has lived in Armenia for quite some time

Budzilla
Oct 14, 2007

We can all learn from our past mistakes.

OddObserver posted:

https://twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/1569433181119737857

(Relevant since Russia is supposedly a peacekeeper there and is also supposedly Armenian ally).
About that Armenia ally thing....

President Ilham Aliyev: This Declaration brings Azerbaijan-Russia relations to the level of an alliance. Basically Armenia is in a really bad place.

Akratic Method posted:

I've really been wondering at what point all the little conflicts frozen by the threat of Russian power start to thaw because that threat just isn't chilling enough anymore. Looks like it's starting up.
There have been sporadic flare ups recently.

James Garfield
May 5, 2012
Am I a manipulative abuser in real life, or do I just roleplay one on the Internet for fun? You decide!

That account doesn't seem to be pro russian but what a weird third question. Azerbaijan can be lovely on its own without the US being an 11 dimensional puppet master.

James Garfield fucked around with this message at 04:01 on Sep 13, 2022

KitConstantine
Jan 11, 2013

James Garfield posted:

That account doesn't seem to be pro russian but what a weird third question. Azerbaijan can be lovely on its own without the US being an 11 dimensional puppet master.

The politics of that account are interesting, but they appear to have good connections in the region.

Suspicions re: 'western' intentions aren't exclusive to Russia and their sympathizers

Young Freud
Nov 26, 2006


If the CSTO doesn't respond or the Russian peacekeepers have, in fact, hosed off, that pretty much means any alliance through the CSTO is pretty much worthless. Russia cannot protect itself, let alone its allies.

Barudak
May 7, 2007

Young Freud posted:

If the CSTO doesn't respond or the Russian peacekeepers have, in fact, hosed off, that pretty much means any alliance through the CSTO is pretty much worthless. Russia cannot protect itself, let alone its allies.

Yeah this is kind of a major collapse if they're not gonna show up.

James Garfield
May 5, 2012
Am I a manipulative abuser in real life, or do I just roleplay one on the Internet for fun? You decide!
https://mobile.twitter.com/IlyaMatveev_/status/1569371107777552384

I don't think this has been posted yet, here's some commentary on how Putin might not be able to order mobilization - apparently Russia tried to add :airquote:patriotism:airquote: to the school curriculum and the attempt failed.

Grape
Nov 16, 2017

Happily shilling for China!
If anything pumping up the patriotism just in time for your country to trip down the stairs and rip their pants at the bottom is a marvelous perfect storm combo of torpedoing pride.

Zwabu
Aug 7, 2006

What has the news coverage of the Ukranian offensive been in Europe, Eastern Europe? I feel like the news has been all QE2 all the time for days now in the U.S.

Some of this has been due to the relative lack of media access. It's obviously better to maintain opsec and win the war if those are the choices, but it seems like some propaganda value should be derived from this too to help maintain enthusiasm of Zelensky's Western allies for keeping up the support?

Rockker
Nov 17, 2010

Is Russia just really dug in at Snihurivka? Looking at Kherson area map, Ukraine has recaptured lots of terrain further south but Snihurivka up north still enemy held.

Deteriorata
Feb 6, 2005

Another dawn is breaking in Kyiv, and it's still Ukrainian. :unsmith:

:ukraine:

Sir John Falstaff
Apr 13, 2010

Rockker posted:

Is Russia just really dug in at Snihurivka? Looking at Kherson area map, Ukraine has recaptured lots of terrain further south but Snihurivka up north still enemy held.

Maybe, but it's possible Ukraine is just doing what they've done in other places and is trying to avoid tough urban fighting by going around and cutting it off, so the Russians are forced to retreat or be encircled. The incursion to the east of Snihurivka seems like it might be headed that way, if it keeps going in the direction it seems to be going right now. Just speculation, though.

Mr. Apollo
Nov 8, 2000

Young Freud posted:

If the CSTO doesn't respond or the Russian peacekeepers have, in fact, hosed off, that pretty much means any alliance through the CSTO is pretty much worthless. Russia cannot protect itself, let alone its allies.
Based on some of those tweets it sounds like Russia is now supporting Azerbaijan? If so, that seems even worse that simply not showing up.

PainterofCrap
Oct 17, 2002

hey bebe



Deteriorata posted:

Another dawn is breaking in Kyiv, and it's still Ukrainian. :unsmith:

:ukraine:




poo poo, a whole lot more of Ukraine is Ukrainian!

Slava Ukraini!

Warbadger
Jun 17, 2006

Mr. Apollo posted:

Based on some of those tweets it sounds like Russia is now supporting Azerbaijan? If so, that seems even worse that simply not showing up.

They've been playing both sides of this conflict for a while now, with close relations and weapon sales to both countries. Hence the lukewarm Russian reaction when Azerbaijan clowned all over Armenia in the front of the world last time. Right now I'm not sure they actually *could* do anything even if they wanted to - and they're only going to want to if Azeris are seriously looking like they're going to occupy Armenia proper.

Orthanc6
Nov 4, 2009

Young Freud posted:

If the CSTO doesn't respond or the Russian peacekeepers have, in fact, hosed off, that pretty much means any alliance through the CSTO is pretty much worthless. Russia cannot protect itself, let alone its allies.

Hard unconfirmed but there was word about some small villages by the border by Belgorod being advised to evacuate. Ukraine has zero ambitions to do more than hit military infrastructure in Russia proper, but the fact is they can do that and much more along the Kharkiv oblast borders right now if they wanted to. The 2nd most powerful nation of the 20th century can't fully defend it's own lands right now. 2020's are nuts.

MikeC
Jul 19, 2004
BITCH ASS NARC

Morrow posted:

The simple truth then is that Russia can't play great power politics because it isn't a great power.

You would be correct sir and I noted that back in March when this whole thing was underway that Putin and by extension, Russia (among others), has misunderstood its place in the world and that the sun had set on its ability to realize any potential status as a great power actor. This won't be the first, nor will it be the last, instance of where a former great power desperately lashes out in a desperate attempt to cling to that status and respect that comes with it.

Saladman posted:

In all practical terms, Russia has not been a great power nor has it been treated like one since like 1991, beyond its permanent seat on the UNSC. Like what is the last thing that anyone can point to that had Russia involved in a significant political or economic way that wasn't a country in the former USSR? Syria is the only example I can think of, and their maybe involvement in the Iran nuclear accords. Maybe they gave some lip service of something to Cuba and Venezuela, but it's not substantial like pre-1990 Cuba. For instance has Russia had any major political or economic involvement Africa since 1991? Even as far as I can tell from a cursory look, the Angola-Cuba-Russia special relationship collapsed in 1991. E: I guess they have some mercenaries in Mali and the Sahel now, but even there it's mercenaries and not Russia-Russia.

What will change is that Russia will be treated as much less of a regional power now, so even neighboring countries like Kazakhstan and orbital countries like Armenia will significantly reassess their relationship. They might still come to the same conclusion that working with Russia is in their best interests (which probably is actually the case for everyone except Belarus, Ukraine, and maybe Georgia), but now they'll be able to freely make that decision

Very true. With the confluence of events ranging from China no longer being the junior partner in its relationship as a frenemy of Russia, the expansion of NATO right up to its borders, and the coming demographic crunch where Russia will have to devote a significant chunk of national economic output to service its seniors, Putin likely viewed this as Russia's last chance to entrench itself as a major player before it literally could no longer do so as its population age out. But instead of securing Russia a more gentle slide into its twilight years, Putin has instead gambled and likely lost everything including its image as an underfunded but plucky military player that still needed respect in its backyard. Everyone from the Caucuses and Central Asia will be evaluating where it stands and many weaker countries will be looking for new patrons or at the very least, a renewed understanding with its neighbors with Russia no longer being a credible actor.


James Garfield posted:

https://mobile.twitter.com/IlyaMatveev_/status/1569371107777552384

I don't think this has been posted yet, here's some commentary on how Putin might not be able to order mobilization - apparently Russia tried to add :airquote:patriotism:airquote: to the school curriculum and the attempt failed.

The total lack of pushback in the past 3 days lends credence. The picture is becoming clear about just how badly undermanned the Russians are in the conflict with Ukranians rolling over units formed/conscripted from the breakaway republics near Izyum. There are no reports of Russian reserves or units reallocated from the nearby area to try and stop the Ukrainians but instead are deperately trying to cobble a passive defense behind the Oskil. The Ukrainians found enough manpower to launch a diversionary attack in Kherson strong enough to force the Russians to reallocate manpower and still attack the other side of the country and Russia couldn't respond at all. The Ukrainians might not even be done in the Donbas. In addition, the Russians might find out that they have to finally evacuate Kherson to the east side of the Dnipro since they can't supply all the forces they shoved in there. How humiliating would that be, you get hoodwinked and lose Izyum and then you also fold to the supporting attack in Kherson. If the Russian army wouldn't or couldn't find units to save a city and region that took them 4 months of shelling to take, then what will the Russian army be able to fight and hold onto?


edit: https://twitter.com/DT_RexWx/status/1569540838124060673?s=20&t=iNVNu3anN-WYQ4KLXtbWpA

I find it amusing when people start drawing random arrows on maps but don't check to see if the bulges on the map actually have the road network to support their fantasy attacks. The bulge, if the map is accurate at all, is over a bunch of farms/crop fields. If the bulge was centered along an arterial road then maybe I would indulge them a bit more but the Ukrainians have to follow the same logistics rules the Russians do.

MikeC fucked around with this message at 05:27 on Sep 13, 2022

BIG FLUFFY DOG
Feb 16, 2011

On the internet, nobody knows you're a dog.


James Garfield posted:

That account doesn't seem to be pro russian but what a weird third question. Azerbaijan can be lovely on its own without the US being an 11 dimensional puppet master.

The Armenian-American lobby is pretty powerful in California and has some influence in democratic politics through that. The Azerbaijani lobby is non-existent. During the nagorno-karabkh war I saw a lot of posts on Twitter and Instagram lobbying the Armenian position and basically none lobbying the azeribaijani position. I really doubt the US would intentionally gently caress with Armenia to prop up Azerbaijan given domestic politics.

tristeham
Jul 31, 2022

BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:

The Armenian-American lobby is pretty powerful in California and has some influence in democratic politics through that. The Azerbaijani lobby is non-existent. During the nagorno-karabkh war I saw a lot of posts on Twitter and Instagram lobbying the Armenian position and basically none lobbying the azeribaijani position. I really doubt the US would intentionally gently caress with Armenia to prop up Azerbaijan given domestic politics.

the US has sent $100 millions to Azerbaidjan in military aid during the Trump administration and it appears Biden doesn't seem to care about the fate of Armenians. (https://mirrorspectator.com/2022/06/28/biden-waives-section-907-again-for-azerbaijan/). what goes on on twitter doesn't factor much in the US' foreign policy decisions. i'm afraid the US won't lift a finger to prevent another round of ethnic cleansing because it doesn't align with its interests regarding oil production.

Barudak
May 7, 2007

Well, also, in theory, Russia is treaty bound to protect Armenia

Charlotte Hornets
Dec 30, 2011

by Fritz the Horse

Barudak posted:

Well, also, in theory, Russia is treaty bound to protect Armenia

Pretty sure the treaty excludes Nagorno-Karabakh, only the internationally recognized border.

a pipe smoking dog
Jan 25, 2010

"haha, dogs can't smoke!"

Charlotte Hornets posted:

Pretty sure the treaty excludes Nagorno-Karabakh, only the internationally recognized border.

The azeris are attacking the internationally recognised border.

a pipe smoking dog fucked around with this message at 08:02 on Sep 13, 2022

Mustang
Jun 18, 2006

“We don’t really know where this goes — and I’m not sure we really care.”

MikeC posted:

edit: https://twitter.com/DT_RexWx/status/1569540838124060673?s=20&t=iNVNu3anN-WYQ4KLXtbWpA

I find it amusing when people start drawing random arrows on maps but don't check to see if the bulges on the map actually have the road network to support their fantasy attacks. The bulge, if the map is accurate at all, is over a bunch of farms/crop fields. If the bulge was centered along an arterial road then maybe I would indulge them a bit more but the Ukrainians have to follow the same logistics rules the Russians do.

Some random twitter user obviously doesn't know the Ukrainian scheme of maneuver but there is no requirement that an avenue of approach be centered on a road, or even have roads at all.

Saladman
Jan 12, 2010

Zwabu posted:

What has the news coverage of the Ukranian offensive been in Europe, Eastern Europe? I feel like the news has been all QE2 all the time for days now in the U.S.

Some of this has been due to the relative lack of media access. It's obviously better to maintain opsec and win the war if those are the choices, but it seems like some propaganda value should be derived from this too to help maintain enthusiasm of Zelensky's Western allies for keeping up the support?

Just open up some websites and look? It’s front page everywhere, even the UK.

https://www.letemps.ch - Swiss Romande - 2nd headline right
https://www.nzz.ch - Zurich - primary headline right now
https://www.lefigaro.fr - Paris - headlines 1 2 AND 3
https://www.bbc.com - London - third headline after two of the Queen, still very much front page
https://www.nytimes.com - New York - headlines 1 2 and 3 also

Print news has been significantly focused on this in W Europe and North America. I don’t know what televised news is doing anywhere, since Europeans don’t have TVs playing the news randomly like you see in US airports, and I haven’t even hooked up my TV to broadcast TV in more than a decade nor do I think I have ever seen a TV on in someone’s house in Europe for broadcast TV watching either, except my wife’s 89 year old grandmother.

Autisanal Cheese
Nov 29, 2010

Deteriorata posted:

Another dawn is breaking in Kyiv, and it's still Ukrainian. :unsmith:

:ukraine:



probably already said a lot in the thread but I really appreciate seeing these every day

Charlotte Hornets
Dec 30, 2011

by Fritz the Horse

Mustang posted:

Some random twitter user obviously doesn't know the Ukrainian scheme of maneuver but there is no requirement that an avenue of approach be centered on a road, or even have roads at all.

This bulge is danger close to the main supply road of the Russians (Davydiv Brid-Berylsav highway)

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:

The Armenian-American lobby is pretty powerful in California and has some influence in democratic politics through that. The Azerbaijani lobby is non-existent. During the nagorno-karabkh war I saw a lot of posts on Twitter and Instagram lobbying the Armenian position and basically none lobbying the azeribaijani position. I really doubt the US would intentionally gently caress with Armenia to prop up Azerbaijan given domestic politics.

kim k can say whatever she wants but oil politics and geography dictate the US will maintain a strategic partnership with azerbaijan for the near future

kemikalkadet
Sep 16, 2012

:woof:

Zwabu posted:

What has the news coverage of the Ukranian offensive been in Europe, Eastern Europe? I feel like the news has been all QE2 all the time for days now in the U.S.

Some of this has been due to the relative lack of media access. It's obviously better to maintain opsec and win the war if those are the choices, but it seems like some propaganda value should be derived from this too to help maintain enthusiasm of Zelensky's Western allies for keeping up the support?

Pretty heavy coverage in the UK. Apart from the obvious dead queen stuff there's been a lot of talk about it on TV news and print media, it's been the main headline behind the queen and has crowded out most domestic news.

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Bug Squash
Mar 18, 2009

According to BBC, Zelenski has announced the liberated area now totals 6 thousand square km.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62884668

A few days ago it was 3 thousand. Astounding rate of advance.

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