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Tomn posted:That does kinda depend on how many of them have any idea what's actually happening on a wider level, though. Accounts from earlier Russian soldiers (like the guy described here, his wartime experiences are like part 4 or something of the series) suggests that grunts tossed into battle are barely informed where they even are or what's happening just around them, let alone that an entire front somewhere else is collapsing. Apparently the guy in the thread was watching Ukrainian news on captured TV sets to get a basic idea of what was going on, and a lot of the guys around him didn't bother to check. I imagine Russian officers would probably like to keep this particular news from spreading more than they have to. It's so strange to me that they don't inform their fighting troops on the broad situation. Not everyone needs to know everything, and some details should only be known to the planners for security reasons, but keeping the frontline in the dark like that is just begging for major routs whenever the Ukrainians force a breakthrough like at Izyum/Kupyansk. How do other armies in the world do it? I'd have to guess American/NATO soldiers are being kept up to date a lot better through at least civilian news channels. Which I guess the Russians can't, because their news keeps being propaganda.
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Alchenar posted:The takeaway from the dam strike without anything else is that it's evidence that Russia was sufficiently concerned about Ukraine's push over the the Inuhlets to feel the need to do it. quote:In turn, Vilkul reported that a significant number of tasks were carried out overnight, including "two detonations [of explosives] at the dam in the Chornohirka area [that were undertaken] to increase its carrying capacity and major engineering works."
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Sep 15, 2022 10:04
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Paladinus posted:It's arguably even more stupid than this. They now report on every missile they claim to have destroyed one way or another. It's not 40 HIMARS launchers, it's 40 rockets. I guess they don't mention that HIMARS rockets come in 6s so they might get one but there's another 5 on their way to gently caress up and ammo dump.
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Sep 15, 2022 10:13
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I want to clarify a few things because I feel I might have been misunderstood. The claim I made is that Ukraine would be on a better economic trajectory than it was before, not that its economy would boom overnight. Economic growth happens on trajectories. Each year might be a bit different for a country, but when you take a step back, there is a mean average of growth, and my claim was that Ukraine's trajectory would be higher after the war than before. For a number of reasons, Ukraine has really not had a great growth trajectory in the past 50 years, so my claim is really not that outrageous. What will boom is construction. The Ukrainian government will have no choice but to start pouring the majority of their funds into literally rebuilding the country, and any foreign aid that is given is going to go straight into rebuilding. Construction of infrastructure and buildings in Ukraine will almost certainly be at levels much higher than before the war started, simply because there is no other option when the most basic infrastructure must be rebuilt from scratch. That's what I meant by 'construction boom.' I also said that the attritional phase has 'paused,' not ended. I don't personally don't expect for Ukraine to get back to the 2014 borders by the end of the year, but at the same time, I cannot image a future where they haven't gotten there within a few years. Russia is simply in too bad of shape to hold its conquered turf long term. Remittances often have a positive impact on the economy because they stimulate consumption, and because there a smaller labor force (IE, there are people working abroad, sending money home), there is more upward pressure on local wages. Just google scholar this one if you are skeptical. It is fairly well studied for an economic phenomenon. The comparison to post-WW2 USA might have been inaccurate for a number of reasons, so I am going to redact that and replace it with a better example, post-ww2 USSR. Much like modern day Ukraine, the USSR emerged from the war in extremally bad shape. Then, because of large-scale government investment into infrastructure, the USSR briefly became one of the richest countries in the world during the 50s. That petered out for various reasons, but rebuilding a destroyed country can go very smoothly if the political will, and the trends and forces are pushing it in that direction, which for Ukraine, seems highly probable. While it may take years for Ukraine to return to its prewar GDP, I still think that this country is going to have a bright future. I may or may not be taking goober-pills. Chill Monster fucked around with this message at 10:26 on Sep 15, 2022 |
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Sep 15, 2022 10:21
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Alchenar posted:But the reports still go up the chain so at some point Putin and the Russian MoD might genuinely have believed they were taking minimal losses while having completely destroyed the Ukrainian army several times over. I am wondering how often this happened in WW1. I don't recall it happening much, but seems it would explain a lot of the failures. Also, everyone's involved, up to the top levels of the military. In this case, it includes Putin telling lies to himself. gay picnic defence posted:I agree with this. They're not going to end the war before winter sets in so there's no point in overreaching and getting over extended. They've sent their message to Europe that they can win offensives and that they are worthy of continued support. This is utterly wrong. 100's of Ukrainians are still getting killed or injured every day- every day is another day more people and more damage is done. The big advance stopped after 5 days...because you need to reset and rebuild the attack units after 5 days. I don't think the next big offensive will be Kherson- the units there are trapped and aren't able to get back anyway. It will be elsewhere. Comstar fucked around with this message at 10:46 on Sep 15, 2022 |
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Sep 15, 2022 10:42
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I'm not sure we should go too far in saying the Russian leadership is dysfunctional. It's very possible they are, but they've also shown they're quite cunning when it comes to long term planning. Bear in mind that the initial Russian offensive, which ended up falling on its face, very nearly succeeded. From reports, everyone (including the US) thought it would succeed, and many were urging the Ukrainian government to evacuate. If Russia had achieved a quick victory, then the political atmosphere in Europe regarding gas and sanctions would be very different. We would also not be seeing any of the problems in the Russian army that we are now witnessing. As it turned out, two critical factors that went against the invasion were the lack of political and public support within Ukraine. Michael Kofman made the point that one of the Russian leadership's flaws is they are quite chauvinistic; they didn't think anyone could tell them anything about Ukraine they didn't know already. It's possible that the Russian leadership is as dysfunctional as people are speculating. Or they could be relatively competent, but are faced with a situation where the army is so dysfunctional that when orders are given nothing happens. i.e. they're in charge of an out of control machine, are pulling all the levers and none of them are working. Some are breaking off. The Russian leadership have clearly made mistakes; they clearly should have anticipated the Kharkiv offensive. However, we need to remember that if the Russian army had been ever-so-slightly more competent, Russia might have occupied Kyiv by now. And a lot of very clever people on the Western side didn't see the Kharkiv offensive coming, despite having excellent information available. I'm not sure at what point you back out if you're Russia. They could very well believe they just need to keep the pressure up and hope Events occur that go in their favour.
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Sep 15, 2022 10:47
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Comstar posted:This is utterly wrong. 100's of Ukrainians are still getting killed or injured every day- every day is another day more people and more damage is done. The big advance stopped after 5 days...because you need to reset and rebuild the attack units after 5 days. Sure, but they can't ignore the military realities of their situation. If they push too hard they risk overextending and having a bunch of exhausted troops who have outrun their supply lines facing a counterattack. I don't know their actual situation and their military has shown great competence in most of what they've done so far, so I'm sure whatever takes place over the next few months will be well thought out. Just don't be surprised if it doesn't involve another sweeping offensive that retakes Mariupol or something.
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Sep 15, 2022 10:55
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 https://twitter.com/uaweapons/status/1570344171361210368
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Sep 15, 2022 11:01
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Aertuun posted:I'm not sure we should go too far in saying the Russian leadership is dysfunctional. It's very possible they are, but they've also shown they're quite cunning when it comes to long term planning. This is such a monumental misreading of the situation, I don't know how they could come up with it without the whole political structure being ultranationalist and/or yes-men. I posted this article before, but check it out. It basically address all the misunderstandings of the political ruling class, and it's by their own military dude so clearly smart people actually knew what's up https://nvo.ng.ru/realty/2022-02-03/3_1175_donbass.html
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Sep 15, 2022 11:10
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So Russia MFA just tweeted this: https://twitter.com/mfa_russia/status/1570355601603186690 Ukraine is a threat to children in Donbass and UNICEF is silent about it. This is just bizarre.
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Sep 15, 2022 11:20
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HUGE PUBES A PLUS posted:So Russia MFA just tweeted this: To be fair, Mirotvorets is not always very diligent about whom they dox. Don't know about children from Donbass, but at some point they definitely had a kid who sang Soviet WW2-era songs at a singing competition. They also had Zelenskyi's wife there while he was running, because her FB page got hacked, coincidentally.
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Sep 15, 2022 11:40
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Next we have to start looking for rubber boots made by Nokia.
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Sep 15, 2022 11:49
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Presumably Finnish military equipment comes with a +5 to all stats vs Russians.
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Sep 15, 2022 12:06
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MikeC posted:The low-hanging fruit seems to have been plucked already. No serious Ukrainian gains in the past 48 hours and no gains outside the Izyium sector where the Russians have simply fled back to the border and across the Oskil. Unsure how anyone can say that the Ukrainians for sure has another push in it of anywhere close to that magnitude. Because mil bloggers are keeping track of Ukrainian units and equipment that has been sent to them. Ukraine has significant proportion of their force unengaged on any front, for rest & refit, and to act as reserve. The Kharkiv offensive used about half of the powerful mobile units and equipment that Ukraine was expected to have freely available at that point. They have another roughly equivalent offensive stored up their sleeve, ready to send wherever and whenever they choose. slurm posted:The other issue is midterms in the US may block further funding, the GOP seems to be straying back into the Putin camp. The Republican Senate Minority Leader just asked Biden to send Ukraine ATACMS and Abrams. Trump, and a small contingent of his worst followers, are pro-Russia. I expect their numbers to grow in the midterms, but literally the only thing the GOP broke ranks with Trump during his presidency was aid to Ukraine, and the cold warriors among them have seen their stances against Russia harden, not soften. I think it's already clear that military aid to Ukraine will not soften after the midterms.
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Sep 15, 2022 12:49
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gay picnic defence posted:Presumably Finnish military equipment comes with a +5 to all stats vs Russians. It can also fight Merkavas, if you are brave or stupid enough. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k8eEH7oozxo
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Sep 15, 2022 12:51
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According to a military specialist this particular APC can be outfitted with Russian made AA machine guns (which Ukraine uses)
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Sep 15, 2022 13:02
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Pook Good Mook posted:. This made me curious so I went back through my own posts in this thread and yeah as of early March we were generay pointing out that Russia didn't have a way left to "win". This was the earliest post I could find of mine "calling it", from March 4: Hieronymous Alloy posted:Eh, this is a kind of defeatism.
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Sep 15, 2022 13:10
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Warbadger posted:Pashinyan's stated views on NK got considerably more hardline before his election - from "yeah, we should negotiate and cede some parts to end the conflict, the guys who are pushing this conflict are loving us all" to "NK all belongs to us, should be a part of Armenia, there's nothing to give". Likely out of political necessity. Yeah, this was the only person pushing the conflict though: https://twitter.com/presidentaz/status/560718307515318272?lang=en
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Sep 15, 2022 13:12
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mobby_6kl posted:This is such a monumental misreading of the situation, I don't know how they could come up with it without the whole political structure being ultranationalist and/or yes-men. Yeah, I've been pondering on Russian war goals and how they succeeded with them and it doesn't seem very flattering to Russia. Like if we look at their stated goals of "denazification" and demilitarization of Ukraine it doesn't look good. Zelensky government is going strong and Ukrainian military is getting massive amounts of materiel from NATO. Ukrainian military has suffered losses of course but technologically they are in a better position than when hostilities began in February. So unless Russia tries another attempt of assaulting Kyiv (extremely unlikely) and they are willing to keep the meat grinder going on (this is a possibility), they aren't going to succeed in their stated goals. Then if we look at a broader geo-political perspective, that sees Russian strategy being weakening the NATO and EU and achieving a buffer zone between their borders and NATO by forcibly decoupling Ukraine from west, it seems that Russia isn't succeeding here either. It is true that economically EU is facing huge difficulties through energy production, but politically EU is at the moment showing surprising ability to work together as a single front. We shall see how the former affects the latter this coming winter. Militarily NATO was in pretty dire straits before the conflict. America was basically the only country in NATO putting resources into military while most European members were still enjoying peace dividend from the end of Cold War. American establishment was constantly attacking European members on this issue that further divided NATO unity. Well it turns out that Americans were right! European countries must increase defense budgets (Now in my personal opinion there's absolutely no need for EU countries to strive for some kind of humongous military similar to US. it is not EU's place to be able to have power to do two simultaneous invasions on the other side of the globe to export freedom through munitions, but EU militaries should be big enough to deter possible Russian invasion efficiently). And it is reported that European countries are indeed increasing their military capabilities. Not to mention Finland and Sweden joining NATO directly because of Russian aggression. From this perspective all that the war achieved for Russia was strengthening intra-Western relations, increase in their defense spending and gaining a new NATO neighbour with a shared land border of about 1300km that is only 400 km away from St Petersburg. So we can state that if these were the guidelines of Russian strategy, they are most likely going to fail miserably. Whole invasion was counter-productive for Russia. I've also seen claims that in reality Russia just wanted to protect and consolidate their gains from 2014, the stated goals weren't really the point. But I wonder if even here Russia has succeeded. Ukrainian counter attack is now threatening separatist areas and they have the support of the west. So instead of strengthening their positions and waiting for Ukrainian attack which wouldn't have gained support from the west (some countries might have supported it, but I have a hard time seeing this kind of political unity from west if Ukraine was the side breaking the cease fire), Russia started an aggressive war that saw their forces decimated, massive materiel losses and decoupling profitable connection to EU just to achieve shaky status quo with less ability to defend separatist areas than they had before the war. So even from this view, the war was at best a useless waste of resources and human lives that achieved nothing for Russia. I really don't see how this war has benefited Russia in any way, no matter what Russian POV you choose to try to approach it.
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Sep 15, 2022 13:14
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Comstar posted:I am wondering how often this happened in WW1. I don't recall it happening much, but seems it would explain a lot of the failures.
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Sep 15, 2022 13:17
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MikeC posted:The low-hanging fruit seems to have been plucked already. No serious Ukrainian gains in the past 48 hours and no gains outside the Izyium sector where the Russians have simply fled back to the border and across the Oskil. Unsure how anyone can say that the Ukrainians for sure has another push in it of anywhere close to that magnitude. I would read overly much into that. NATO doctrine at least calls for an operational pause after 5 days of offensive operations, because it turns out that soldiers who have been on the offensive and their officers get very little sleep, and start making terrible decisions and loving up pretty bad on day 5 of a major offensive sans pause. Plus Ukraine has to consolidate gains, secure logistics, and move slower assets (like towed artillery, field hospitals, and air defense assets) into position to continue the offensive. So it may be that all the “low hanging fruit” has been gotten and the offensive has essentially ended, or it may be Ukraine is resting soldiers and officers, while also handling the logistical issues creates by capturing thousands of square miles of territory before continuing major offensive operations on the Kharkiv front.
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Sep 15, 2022 13:24
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Glah posted:I really don't see how this war has benefited Russia in any way, no matter what Russian POV you choose to try to approach it. I don't think there is any even remotely likely way Russia at this point can come out of the war any way better than it went in. The only realistic goals it could have it to keep the borders from before the war and claim victory on some other bs, made up goal, to save face. That's obviously not Russia's current goals as the could obviously do that right now, so who knows what there actual goals are, but those to me seem to be the only ones that at the moment seem achievable. And honestly if we found out that Russia/Putin at the moment didn't have any clear goals, that wouldn't surprise me. The current Russia government keeping a senseless bloody war going as long as it could for no clear reason would be very on brand.
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Sep 15, 2022 13:30
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dr_rat posted:I don't think there is any even remotely likely way Russia at this point can come out of the war any way better than it went in. The only realistic goals it could have it to keep the borders from before the war and claim victory on some other bs, made up goal, to save face. Ukraine would have to run into some amazing set-back now to not push on to throw out Russia completely though. I can't see a situation now where Russia gets to keep even the 2014 borders.
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Sep 15, 2022 13:37
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ZombieLenin posted:I would read overly much into that. NATO doctrine at least calls for an operational pause after 5 days of offensive operations, because it turns out that soldiers who have been on the offensive and their officers get very little sleep, and start making terrible decisions and loving up pretty bad on day 5 of a major offensive sans pause. This is not true. Individual formations can be relieved without the entire joint/combined force taking a pause. And when a pause is taken, there’s no 5 day rule at the operational level.
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Sep 15, 2022 13:38
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Glah posted:Yeah, I've been pondering on Russian war goals and how they succeeded with them and it doesn't seem very flattering to Russia. I do have some concern about the whole "multipolar world" thing. Obviously russia is in no position to really lead anything, but even if they fail entirely and have to withdraw, I do worry if they'd be able to cobble together something with China, Iran and maybe even India (don't forget Belarus!), and even broadly Africa and South America doesn't give a poo poo and would buddies with them too. This wouldn't be great for, well, us. E: Kind of like this, though this has approximately 0% chance of working https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1570353830147067905 E: just noticed China's not on there, of course. lol. mobby_6kl fucked around with this message at 14:00 on Sep 15, 2022 |
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Sep 15, 2022 13:44
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mobby_6kl posted:They tried to do an extremely high risk operation, with absolutely zero contingency, predicated entirely on the idea that the Ukrainian military hasn't changed since 2014 and that everyone secretly loves russia. That's a very good article, and it was fascinating seeing it alongside the others (re: Russian logistics) which were picked over after the invasion had kicked off. The google translated quote from the article is apt here, "Never despise your enemy, do not consider him stupider and weaker than you." The author used it in regard to Ukraine, and I'd say we should use it in regard to Russia. There are lots of very smart people on all sides who misread the situation in Ukraine, and also many who misread the competence of the Russian military.* (*though the excuse there is that the military was used in a way that did not play to its strengths) There were clearly serious political misjudgements by Russia, which are (currently) credited for the failure of their assault on Kyiv. Perhaps my main point is that Russia doesn't have the monopoly on politically disastrous decision making and military intelligence failures. Otherwise "smart" people make stupid decisions all the time. Clearly any plan that involved invading Ukraine was a terrible idea, but then if I was in charge of Russia I'd turn it into a better version of Norway.
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Sep 15, 2022 14:09
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HUGE PUBES A PLUS posted:So Russia MFA just tweeted this: Prigozhin's Foundation for the Fight against Repression (abbreviated to FBI) has been really pushing anti-Myrotvorets content, and trying to link it to Bellingcat claiming we trained and funded them (which is untrue). It seems most recently they've been trying to push it hard with Western tankiedom, holding a press conference no-one watched with various Western "independent" journalists to talk about how awful Myrotvorets is, and the head of the foundation was even recently interviewed by Max Blumenthal for the Gray Zone. They've also pushed for Myrotvorets to be declared a terrorist organisation, which might put a new light on the trying to tie Bellingcat to them, especially as Prigozhin still seems salty about losing his legal cases against me in the UK and Bellingcat successfully suing RIA FAN, which is also tied to him, in the Netherlands. Equally it could just be a bunch of people huffing each others farts and thinking they're onto something.
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Sep 15, 2022 14:13
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mobby_6kl posted:https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1570353830147067905 There's video too. https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1570350377878585346 Dunno when he was promoted to Grand Moff 
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Sep 15, 2022 14:32
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drat, the US would love it if the Axis Of Evil formally defined themselves into a coalition of wastemen. Complete carte blanche for any future adventurism
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Sep 15, 2022 14:35
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So many of you misunderstand and misestimate Putin's intentions. Ukraine's just a tool, a trap he uses to bring decadent west to its knees and everything has been going precisely as he planned it. We are already seeing how Sverige Demokraterna took a big victory in Sweden and Brothers of Italy are on their way to victory in Italy. As the winter sets and Europeans are shivering in their unheated homes in total darkness and no field in their telephones, right wing parties will rise to power all over Europe and MAGA republicans will be winning big in the States after Putin releases the true contents of Hunter Biden's laptop. In the end EU and NATO will be dismantled, everyone forms free trade agreements with Russia and natural gas will flow through Baltic Stream 3. Ukraine will be rebuilt and repopulated by Russian settlers and Vladimir is coronated as the Emperor. You'll see! (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Sep 15, 2022 14:43
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Why the happy gently caress would any of those countries send their citizens to die in Ukraine. In particular (though it's all stupid), why would Cuba and Iran, two countries who are clearly pivoting to western investment, ever put themselves in the discussions for sanctions? The only country on there that might even consider it would be North Korea, and that's only if Russia bribes them with hard currency payments.
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Sep 15, 2022 14:46
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Nenonen posted:There's video too. The reaction from the 'experts' around him lol. Just look at the guy at 1:12 trying hard to repress hysterical laughter as your man lists the potential members of his coalition...
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Sep 15, 2022 14:48
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Aertuun posted:That's a very good article, and it was fascinating seeing it alongside the others (re: Russian logistics) which were picked over after the invasion had kicked off. I don't think you have the correct read on the situation. The reason why French intelligence was so sure that Putin was bluffing is because they thought that there was no way the Russian military could achieve its goals with the amount of manpower they had mobilized, and that it should've been obvious to everyone, especially Russian command. It wasn't a "if a butterfly had(n't) flapped its wings, Ukraine would've fallen in 3 days" scenario.
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Sep 15, 2022 14:52
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Pook Good Mook posted:Why the happy gently caress would any of those countries send their citizens to die in Ukraine. We're kind of stalling with the Iranian nuclear deal, and they expressed support for this CSTO+ or whatever the gently caress they want to call it. Still I don't see them sending people to die in Ukraine considering they have their own adventures in the region to support.
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Sep 15, 2022 14:54
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Tuna-Fish posted:The Republican Senate Minority Leader just asked Biden to send Ukraine ATACMS and Abrams. Tyrants and would-be tyrants lose support when they show weakness. US Democrats need to hammer Trump constantly that he picks losers. He sides with Russia, and Russia are losers, because they're losing. Meanwhile Biden--and Obama before him--picked Ukraine, a winner. "Look at Zelenskyy, surveying the front and taking pictures with his soldiers, while Putin cowers in the Urals! Look at these badass farmers who walk up to a Russian tank and just take it, and dare the Russians cowering in their trenches to do anything about it. Look at these Ukrainian infantry, who dig massive trenches and bunkers by hand, endure days of shelling from afar, and then launch an offensive." Push this messaging hard, and Trump's supporters--who ultimately value strength above any semblance of character--will diminish. Doing so will help maintain support for Ukraine in the long-term, which is good for Ukraine, good for Europe, and good for the world (and, yes, good for the US).
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Sep 15, 2022 14:58
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Nenonen posted:There's video too. American Neocons everywhere just shivered in anticipatory delight. "Don't stop...", they moan softly... mlmp08 posted:This is not true. Individual formations can be relieved without the entire joint/combined force taking a pause. And when a pause is taken, there’s no 5 day rule at the operational level. There is for individual units. Units really can't push more than 5 days; after 3 days of little sleep and heavy stress people's cognitive functions decline as well (i.e. they start making dumb decisions). Fun fact: these numbers tend to hold roughly true in the medical and law enforcement fields as well. Ideally you have follow-on units who have not been pushing 5 days straight who can continue the attack, but you don't always have that.
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Sep 15, 2022 15:04
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There already were people from other countries fighting for Separatists, which led to hilarious neo-nazi slapfights in Poland, since people with similar worldviews joined on two sides of the conflict. Anyone has info about those Syrian units that were supposed to join Russian side a while ago? I don't recall any info, and I doubt they were added to Kadyrov's tiktok brigades.
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Sep 15, 2022 15:05
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Germany being useful: https://mobile.twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1570400035082231809 (I still don't get why they are weird about the marders, though)
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Sep 15, 2022 15:29
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mlmp08 posted:This is not true. Individual formations can be relieved without the entire joint/combined force taking a pause. And when a pause is taken, there’s no 5 day rule at the operational level. See this thread: https://twitter.com/markhertling/status/1569704142167506944?s=46&t=U0YtqZ6RS6QmSY0bkrBKgA Maybe operational pause is the wrong word. A slowing in offensive tempo to allow for a resting of involved units, to ensure logistic chains are secure, and to allow the slower elements of the Ukrainian Army catch up is what I meant. Regarding unit rotation though, that’s all well and good assuming you have 1 for 1 units you can swap out with the fatigued units. Something tells me that Ukraine does not have this kind of reserve at the moment.
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Sep 15, 2022 15:36
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I imagine it will also take some time for the Ukrainians to sort through the windfall of equipment the Russians left for them. Apparently a lot of it is either broken or so absurdly old that its absurd to think it was ever in a modern battlefield but there's a lot of good stuff there too, plus stuff that while not necessarily functional can still be scrapped for parts, all of which could go a long way to alleviating supply issues in other parts of the front.
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Sep 15, 2022 16:08
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