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Chill Monster posted:I’ve been wondering this for a while and I’m not Russian so I am talking completely out of my rear end when I write this, but Polling is going to be less accurate that it normally is, but there are statistically validated methodologies for polling people in oppressive regimes. I’m not sure how Levada is approaching this from methodology perspective, but you could do much worse than them. Fundamentally, what you should be taking away is that last month Kremlin enjoyed the popular support domestically.
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Sep 25, 2022 21:53
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Pennsylvanian posted:Say it: Don't forget the ASRAAM.
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Sep 25, 2022 21:55
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Pennsylvanian posted:Say it: Whoaaaaaa ohhhhh, black Betty
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Sep 25, 2022 21:59
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crossposting: Seems like the 2 main types of strikes HIMARS are getting used for in the latest phase of the war are 1) hitting accumulations of supplies/ammunition/vehicles and 2) blowing up buildings used for c2 or other security needs and/or as quarters. There's a 3rd category of 'we saw a few vehicles' and some amount of work on crossings, but idk less aftermath footage of stuff like that makes it out compared to very freshly blown up buildings surrounded by suspicious numbers of uniformed people so it's hard to say what fraction of the total that is. First might be a bit larger than normal, but idk looks fairly typical of the aftermath of successful strikes on Russian equipment and munitions distribution points. https://twitter.com/glosmeusec/status/1574025499910852609?s=20&t=0jSXCQL1RaEs_cwvKgYY9A For some reason RT was spreading this one, so a non RT link to the video. RF claimed it was a non-military hotel. Immediate aftermath footage had guys with dog tags in their underwear crawling out of rubble in the middle of the night, so certainly seems like it was being used as a barracks/quarters. The strike apparently killed a former Ukrainian Rada member, too. More relevant to the wider state of the conflict: that's pretty typical of GMLRS strikes. Roof is blown largely off, entire core area of the building, probably 20+m, is just gone. Munition hit right in the center of the building. Everything else is hosed up and you would definitely not want to have been near there. https://twitter.com/glosmeusec/status/1573942264199618560?s=20&t=0jSXCQL1RaEs_cwvKgYY9A (no idea what that source account is other than that they aggregate videos of relevant footage without any gore) Anyways there seems to be somewhere between 10-50 such strikes a day and the current phase of the war appears concentrated on the above two types of targets. Particularly in the breakaway republics, but also many specifically in Kherson region. I bring this up because how many strikes like that does it take in a local area before a fresh unit has to be moved in? No wonder the situation with reserves is critical and honestly it's not at all surprising to hear that some percent of the mobilized are getting shipped straight to the front lines. The manpower holes have been a huge issue according to Russians for weeks now and the Kharkiv success happened in no small part because Ukraine basically burned through Russian reserves and there was simply no one left in the region of operations to move in to replace them. Especially not at the scale that was needed. As long as the standing order is 'no more retreats' idk what other option there is than to expedite people to the front lines. I'd be surprised if a portion of the mobilized forces aren't earmarked to be sent to the front as quickly as there's a need for more bodies. Unrelated: prigozhin and wagner are increasingly a parallel institution to the Russian government https://twitter.com/TadeuszGiczan/status/1573630365117341699?s=20&t=SxVrfiYCb6OkBGulAtGknA
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Sep 25, 2022 22:25
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Hannibal Rex posted:https://twitter.com/austinjdahmer/status/1569396251703103489?t=qLIcmGURPekK9Ze6H0v9PA&s=19 I guess this is the first sign that the war is starting to stretch the US’s ability to keep up the level of support required. I wonder if Russia is in a similar situation wrt shell production. The NK ammunition purchase was fake from what I’ve seen but the fact they’re buying other stuff from Iran makes me think it’s likely they’re pushing close to their limit too. I was thinking about the GMLRS supply and it occurred to me that the reason so few HIMARS/M270 systems have been sent is Ukraine would probably burn through the entire stock of missiles in a few weeks if they had more launchers. Anyway, the MIC must be loving this. Not just for all the sales they’re getting now but also because it’s clear no nation has anywhere near enough ammunition stockpiled to maintain a high intensity war for more than a couple of weeks without the US coming to the rescue. It’s probably particularly pertinent for Taiwan as maintaining supply to an island so close to China would be almost impossible if a war was to kick off there.
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Sep 25, 2022 22:25
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Something tells me this tv-host will be disappointed. https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1574096053086965762
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Sep 25, 2022 22:30
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the rate of gmlrs use is fairly low relative to the number manufactured. It should be sustainable for a year or two without added manufacturing, possibly longer depending on the rate of use. Currently Ukraine has only been using them for 3 months and idk how much longer Russia can handle getting hit with them at the current rate for. us manufactured 50k gmlrs for reference. Actual stockpile at the start of this was less, but even at 100/day they could keep it up for a long time. Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 22:38 on Sep 25, 2022 |
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Sep 25, 2022 22:36
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check the flags lol
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Sep 25, 2022 23:28
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FishBulbia posted:check the flags lol That's a powerful coalition. What's the far left one?
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Sep 25, 2022 23:34
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Tsyni posted:That's a powerful coalition. What's the far left one? LNR flag
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Sep 25, 2022 23:36
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Tsyni posted:That's a powerful coalition. What's the far left one? Light blue, blue, red is the LNR flag. E: white red gold is South Ossetia and green/white stripes with red hand thing is Abchazia. It's the who's who of Russian occupied territories! All that's missing is Prisnistrovye (transnistria) spankmeister fucked around with this message at 23:47 on Sep 25, 2022 |
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Sep 25, 2022 23:40
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gay picnic defence posted:I guess this is the first sign that the war is starting to stretch the US’s ability to keep up the level of support required. I wonder if Russia is in a similar situation wrt shell production. The NK ammunition purchase was fake from what I’ve seen but the fact they’re buying other stuff from Iran makes me think it’s likely they’re pushing close to their limit too. I reckon that US is being more conservative than usual with how much stuff they want to keep in their stockpiles, given the recent events. That said, I think you have a likely salient point about GMLRS specifically. The publicly estimated rate of manufacturing for those is around 10 thousand per annum, meaning that manufacturing equilibrium is at ~30 shots per day. Ukraine has been provided with 16 M142 and 11 M270. On the other hand, US did say months ago that they’re boosting the manufacturing of those, so the unlikely accurate public numbers are probably even less accurate now.
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Sep 26, 2022 00:05
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Dagestan is rising, will likely get crushed while Moscow boys whine how hard everything is and pls get me a therapist and ticket to Georgia. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Sep 26, 2022 00:07
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Sekenr posted:Dagestan is rising, will likely get crushed while Moscow boys whine how hard everything is and pls get me a therapist and ticket to Georgia. https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1573772254399369216?s=20&t=WSgEJTxLT0nYhj4NDGK6dA Yeah dude, thats a coward.
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Sep 26, 2022 00:20
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16 HIMARS is 96 tubes, given how every other arty system is used so hard that the tube falls off after a month one shot / tube / day seems like an unlikely estimate for HIMARS. And that's without MLRS. They're absolutely rapidly eating through the global supply of Western artillery rockets right now if 30 is the daily production rate.
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Sep 26, 2022 00:40
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Pennsylvanian posted:Say it: The Surface Launched Advanced Medium Range Air to Air Missile 
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Sep 26, 2022 00:45
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Looks from SLAMRAAM wiki page to Technical alignment chart Can missiles be considered vehicles?
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Sep 26, 2022 01:02
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ShadowHawk posted:The Surface Launched Advanced Medium Range Air to Air Missile It starts on the surface, flies into the air then shoots something in the air, it just happens to use a cannon rather than a plane to get airborne 
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Sep 26, 2022 01:02
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sebmojo posted:It starts on the surface, flies into the air then shoots something in the air, it just happens to use a cannon rather than a plane to get airborne Waiting for SWAAM (surface to water to air to air missiles) to be a thing
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Sep 26, 2022 01:17
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Anyone know if this is true? What about World of Tanks? https://twitter.com/MorganFailchild/status/1573851655736639489
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Sep 26, 2022 02:02
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Charlz Guybon posted:Anyone know if this is true? What about World of Tanks? It’s not true, the player base activity is a bit down (not plummeting) since the school year just began.
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Sep 26, 2022 02:11
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Charlz Guybon posted:Anyone know if this is true? What about World of Tanks? I think its a mistake based on how steamcharts/steamdb display data, if you check during off peak hours for Russia it will show a big drop for the day because they're mostly asleep. Here's what SteamDB shows right now for CS:GO: 
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Sep 26, 2022 02:14
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Correlation is not causation, kids! 
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Sep 26, 2022 02:27
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Pennsylvanian posted:Say it: I would have hoped this was nicknamed 'Black Betty'.
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Sep 26, 2022 02:28
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How does this lead to anything but chaos? https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1574207027135422464
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Sep 26, 2022 02:53
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Perun video on captured Russian equipment and repair. As someone who always thought the entire "Russia is supplying Ukraine more than anyone else" was a bit of a meme I thought this was a good analysis, also delves into repair centers outside Ukraine https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sNLTE75B0Os
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Sep 26, 2022 03:02
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Charlz Guybon posted:How does this lead to anything but chaos? That reminds me, last week the US estimated they still had 20,000 troops holding the bridgehead across the Dnipro at Kherson. The bridgehead they're going to need once they win the war and push through Ukraine into Moldova. Which is obviously going to happen so soon no point in redeploying them elsewhere. It is pretty clear that strategic planning is completely divorced from any kind of military logic.
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Sep 26, 2022 03:34
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saratoga posted:That reminds me, last week the US estimated they still had 20,000 troops holding the bridgehead across the Dnipro at Kherson. The bridgehead they're going to need once they win the war and push through Ukraine into Moldova. Which is obviously going to happen so soon no point in redeploying them elsewhere. The bridgehead they need to supply Kherson too? Sure, maybe it would be strategically sound to abandon it, but now they wont give up on land they claim is Russian. The motto of the war now is "своих не бросаем," so ideological constraints on strategy.
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Sep 26, 2022 03:39
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https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1574107021988839426
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Sep 26, 2022 03:41
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Flavahbeast posted:I think its a mistake based on how steamcharts/steamdb display data, if you check during off peak hours for Russia it will show a big drop for the day because they're mostly asleep. Here's what SteamDB shows right now for CS:GO: https://steamcharts.com/app/730#48h There was a server outage that dropped player numbers to zero but it's non-peak time for CSGO. Also if you aren't protesting wouldn't you be staying inside avoiding getting pressed ganged into service?
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Sep 26, 2022 03:42
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Shooting down six planes makes you an Ace doesn't it?
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Sep 26, 2022 03:45
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Shouldn't he at least make sergeant or something? (And possibly go train some people...)
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Sep 26, 2022 03:47
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The Lone Badger posted:Shooting down six planes makes you an Ace doesn't it? Based on the fact that it mentions MANPADS and that he is a private, I don't think this guy is a pilot.
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Sep 26, 2022 03:47
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That would be like 10% of the known Russian aircraft losses. drat.
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Sep 26, 2022 04:01
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Randarkman posted:Based on the fact that it mentions MANPADS and that he is a private, I don't think this guy is a pilot. Make him an ace anyway
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Sep 26, 2022 04:04
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Scapegoat posted:Perun video on captured Russian equipment and repair. As someone who always thought the entire "Russia is supplying Ukraine more than anyone else" was a bit of a meme I thought this was a good analysis, also delves into repair centers outside Ukraine Also Zelensky in a tshirt at all times owns. the casual look really works on him. cinci zoo sniper posted:but there are statistically validated methodologies for polling people in oppressive regimes
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Sep 26, 2022 04:07
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Billion dollar man
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Sep 26, 2022 04:15
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FishBulbia posted:The bridgehead they need to supply Kherson too? Sure, maybe it would be strategically sound to abandon it, but now they wont give up on land they claim is Russian. The motto of the war now is "своих не бросаем," so ideological constraints on strategy. Kherson (city) is the bridgehead on the Dnieper. Strategically it has been a liability for months, tying down huge numbers of desperately needed troops and logistics capacity defending an untenable position that is costly to supply. Now they're committed to letting Ukraine tie them down forever, but that is only because they didn't withdraw over the spring (or at least summer) when it became clear that an advance towards Odessa wasn't happening. Instead they pulled troops of Kharkov, enabling one defeat to reinforce another.
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Sep 26, 2022 04:21
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He should be training people how to engage with MANPADS, that is a ridiculous number of planes downed by one person.
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Sep 26, 2022 04:44
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saratoga posted:Kherson (city) is the bridgehead on the Dnieper. Strategically it has been a liability for months, tying down huge numbers of desperately needed troops and logistics capacity defending an untenable position that is costly to supply. Now they're committed to letting Ukraine tie them down forever, but that is only because they didn't withdraw over the spring (or at least summer) when it became clear that an advance towards Odessa wasn't happening. Instead they pulled troops of Kharkov, enabling one defeat to reinforce another. In "fairness" to the Russians, it works both ways. Ukraine has to leave a sizeable force regardless of other theaters so guard their lone remaining port at Odessa.
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Sep 26, 2022 04:44
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