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WarpedLichen posted:Speaking of internal security forces, is part of the privilege those guys enjoy not being subject to the draft? It’s legally nuanced topic, but the simplified answer is no, since they’re responsible for the draft proceeding in an orderly manner. The manpower of the internal security apparatus of Russia should be north of 1.5 million people, or 1% of the population. cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 17:01 on Sep 26, 2022 |
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Sep 26, 2022 16:53
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https://twitter.com/FaceTheNation/status/1574414413372788738 https://twitter.com/b_nishanov/status/1574421709452615683
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Sep 26, 2022 17:00
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Paladinus posted:There is literally nothing to suggest it's staged. Believe it or not, Russia has been experiencing ever growing issues with mental health care, far right groups, gun control, and school bullying. The fact that these problems often intersect is not a surprise. Yeah and they'd find no way to be subtle about their bullshit if it were staged, the shooter would have a backpack inexplicably filled with detailed instructions and identifying paperwork It just sounds like the typical story of mass gun violence from the usual suspects
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Sep 26, 2022 17:03
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edit: already covered. 
Just Another Lurker fucked around with this message at 17:10 on Sep 26, 2022 |
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Sep 26, 2022 17:08
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Staluigi posted:Yeah and they'd find no way to be subtle about their bullshit if it were staged, the shooter would have a backpack inexplicably filled with detailed instructions and identifying paperwork Yea you and Paladinus probably have the right of it. Coincidence is not causality. It just set off the alarm in my head a bit with the swastika and I thought NBC would have added more than two if they wanted to show it as a stronger rising trend of violence generally within the Russian state.
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Sep 26, 2022 17:14
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https://twitter.com/dwnews/status/1574432490722414592
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Sep 26, 2022 17:32
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That means he can be mobilized right? 
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Sep 26, 2022 17:35
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Their manpower problems are worse than I thought.
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Sep 26, 2022 17:35
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I hope Snowden gets drafted. That'd be extremely funny.
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Sep 26, 2022 17:36
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Let's take this moment to remind everyone that it is possible to be a strong critic of US policy without selling one's self to a much worse dictator. The enemy of your enemy is not by default your friend, and may in fact be a much worse enemy. Unless they forced this on him (why bother?) it's hard to think of a dumber move right now.
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Sep 26, 2022 17:37
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Orthanc6 posted:Unless they forced this on him (why bother?) it's hard to think of a dumber move right now. Well snowden is powerful dumb, and his life trajectory is a true marvel of a thing, so if this is something he did to himself I am wondering how he'll feel about this move in a year or two
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Sep 26, 2022 17:41
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Didn't he just get stuck there? Still he's been saying some dumb poo poo before the war so it would indeed be pretty funny if he got sent to Ukraine.
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Sep 26, 2022 17:41
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Vincent Van Goatse posted:I hope Snowden gets drafted. That'd be extremely funny. Would it?
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Sep 26, 2022 17:42
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Yes, it would.
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Sep 26, 2022 17:48
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Orthanc6 posted:Let's take this moment to remind everyone that it is possible to be a strong critic of US policy without selling one's self to a much worse dictator. The enemy of your enemy is not by default your friend, and may in fact be a much worse enemy. As I understood it he didn't really have much choice in the matter once he was on the run from the law. Not an expert on international law but I'm not sure if there were any western country he could've taken refuge in that wouldn't have extradited him to the US.
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Sep 26, 2022 17:50
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TheRat posted:Would it? Very much so.
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Sep 26, 2022 17:57
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WarpedLichen posted:As I understood it he didn't really have much choice in the matter once he was on the run from the law. Not an expert on international law but I'm not sure if there were any western country he could've taken refuge in that wouldn't have extradited him to the US. Not to be that guy, but yeah, when you give up our secrets and the secrets of our Allies, chances are good none of those places would host you. Expecting otherwise is incredibly dumb.
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Sep 26, 2022 17:57
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WarpedLichen posted:As I understood it he didn't really have much choice in the matter once he was on the run from the law. Not an expert on international law but I'm not sure if there were any western country he could've taken refuge in that wouldn't have extradited him to the US. There were not any Western countries that he could have expected to not be extricated to the United States or suffering the same fate as Julian Assange (who literally became a Russian schill as a result), which is how he ended up in the Russian Federation. To my knowledge not only has Snowden has been very careful to not openly critique Putin and his regime, but he has also been very careful to not say anything about it at all. The subtext here is that he did what he did vis-a-vis the NSA because he is a true believer, and has no desire to actively support dictators anywhere; so he keeps his mouth shut for the sole purpose of so not spending the rest of his life in a federal SuperMax with actual terrorists. Edit And because he doesn’t want to trip and fall out of a sealed shut window in a Moscow high rise. As far as I know there is absolutely no reason to treat him like he’s Steven Seagal. ZombieLenin fucked around with this message at 18:06 on Sep 26, 2022 |
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Sep 26, 2022 18:01
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Snowden first tried to flee to Hong Kong which is about as free a place as you could get (especially at the time) that was governed by someone who wouldn't extradite him to the US. But the Chinese government wasn't real keen on the headache and kicked him out, but put him on a plane to Russia instead.
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Sep 26, 2022 18:11
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FishBulbia posted:I mean also the Russians just want to hold Kherson for Kherson's sake. It's a city of 300k and the regional capital. It's the second most important place they've taken since Donetsk. Pook Good Mook posted:In "fairness" to the Russians, it works both ways. Ukraine has to leave a sizeable force regardless of other theaters so guard their lone remaining port at Odessa. I agree with both of these things. They want to hold cities and they want to put pressure on Ukraine while tying down their forces. These are logical objectives. However, armies have to allocate finite resources towards achievable objectives, which they achieve by concentrating forces. And they really do not have the resources to do everything at once. Kherson is at the end of a very long Russian logistics chain that has a river through it. It is physically close to the Ukrainian city of Odessa and connected by good roads on their side. At the same time, the Russian bridgehead is precarious because it is so close to the river still, which is why the bridges were blown in the first place. They either needed to decide it was the priority and commit the forces needed to push back the front and secure the river crossings so that supplies could be safely brought across, or they needed to decide it wasn't worthwhile and temporarily fall back across the river and move those forces towards more important objectives. But sitting on the bridgehead, neither moving forward nor back, would be like if the allies landing at Normandy pushed a few miles inland and then stopped and let the troops landing on the beaches be shelled forever. It is insanity. The problem here is not that the goals are illogical, but rather a lack of prioritization. Is controlling the capital of Kherson more important than securing Kharkov? Apparently no one could decide, both got a fraction of the resources they needed to succeed, and both are now going to fail (or already have). And the same thing is now repeating along the Oskil and on Bakhmut.
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Sep 26, 2022 18:15
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evilweasel posted:Snowden first tried to flee to Hong Kong which is about as free a place as you could get (especially at the time) that was governed by someone who wouldn't extradite him to the US. But the Chinese government wasn't real keen on the headache and kicked him out, but put him on a plane to Russia instead. I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if Snowden never asked for Russian citizenship, but was granted it just because Putin does not have a whole lot he can spit in the eye of the US right now. Call me a cynic, but I also wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if my own government is the one pushing this story in an attempt to make Snowden look as bad as possible. But that’s all sort of conjecture on my part.
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Sep 26, 2022 18:16
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Ynglaur posted:I think people ITT and in the West more broadly are underestimating the amount of sheer power Putin's regime has internally. Putin may be a terrible general but he's a very effective tyrant and was probably a good foreign intelligence administrator. yeah re prigozhin chat: I'm probably the main person posting prigozhin's name and I do it mostly because it's interesting to follow specific people and their motivations as a way of gaining insight beyond just big picture facts of what's happening. Insofar as he has (or might not? reminder that he's still a die-hard Putin ally at the moment) other ambitions, any hypothetical path to more power for him would require pretty much the total collapse of Putin's regime which is not something anyone would bet on currently. It's also entirely possible that that he's doing a wider range of roles because they've been delegated to him and/or it's because Putin clearly isn't interested in being the public face of the special operation in any kind of day-to-day way. Generally if you ask Russians who will succeed Putin they just say 'someone from Putin's faction.' Prigozhin is certainly setting himself up to look good whatever happens, but also that tendency and a bunch of naked ambition is pretty typical for anyone at his level in Russia. You don't get or stay there without knowing how to play that game. That said, his star has risen a lot more than I think anyone would've expected at the start of this. He originally refused to involve wagner in the special operation and apparently was hoping to not get dragged into it. Now Wagner is pretty front and center to the Russian war effort. I would not read that as anything more than it is, the grip of the Russian security state is incredibly strong and has barely been diminished by the war in Ukraine. Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 18:36 on Sep 26, 2022 |
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Sep 26, 2022 18:16
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https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1574430761826091009?cxt=HHwWgoC8ofWbwNkrAAAA This is kinda funny, "crooked barrels" etc
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Sep 26, 2022 18:17
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Charlotte Hornets posted:https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1574430761826091009?cxt=HHwWgoC8ofWbwNkrAAAA He is not wrong, but it's amusing he doesn't mention Grad.
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Sep 26, 2022 18:23
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I'm curious if Putin will make some kind of appearance at one of the major staging/training areas in Kramatorsk that he's not far away from while supposedly he's on holiday in Sochi for the week. Honestly it's weird how allergic to anything to do with the special operation he seems to be. An afternoon of smiling, pointing and waving and being within 500 miles of the front would probably give Russian nationalists and media a bit of direction and renewed vigor
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Sep 26, 2022 18:35
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Herstory Begins Now posted:I'm curious if Putin will make some kind of appearance at one of the major staging/training areas in Kramatorsk that he's not far away from while supposedly he's on holiday in Sochi for the week. Honestly it's weird how allergic to anything to do with the special operation he seems to be. An afternoon of smiling, pointing and waving and being within 500 miles of the front would probably give Russian nationalists and media a bit of direction and renewed vigor a) at least some of the internal propaganda angle is to claim that all problems with the invasion can be blamed on subordinates, and b) he's paranoid about his personal safety.
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Sep 26, 2022 18:39
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how's that working for them?
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Sep 26, 2022 18:40
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Herstory Begins Now posted:how's that working for them? The propaganda? Difficult to say at this point; like a lot of the internal stuff, it's not about even being believable so much as providing a selection of rawfaced lies that sap the desire of recipients to consider protest.
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Sep 26, 2022 18:42
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Herstory Begins Now posted:I'm curious if Putin will make some kind of appearance at one of the major staging/training areas in Kramatorsk that he's not far away from while supposedly he's on holiday in Sochi for the week. Honestly it's weird how allergic to anything to do with the special operation he seems to be. An afternoon of smiling, pointing and waving and being within 500 miles of the front would probably give Russian nationalists and media a bit of direction and renewed vigor Maybe he is actually very sick and a public event would confirm that
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Sep 26, 2022 18:43
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The X-man cometh posted:Maybe he is actually very sick and a public event would confirm that He was at that Ferris wheel opening a few weeks back and he seemed fine then.
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Sep 26, 2022 18:48
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ZombieLenin posted:I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if Snowden never asked for Russian citizenship, but was granted it just because Putin does not have a whole lot he can spit in the eye of the US right now. https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-09-26-22#h_99a0ae1656a28606d71af9a1afda587a cnn at least claims snowden requested citizenship in 2020.
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Sep 26, 2022 18:48
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Discendo Vox posted:a) at least some of the internal propaganda angle is to claim that all problems with the invasion can be blamed on subordinates, and b) he's paranoid about his personal safety. Putin not showing up to regional Armed Forces of Ukraine headquarters should not be considered paranoia...
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Sep 26, 2022 18:50
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Wagner is strictly subordinated to and partially funded by MoD, and they’ve risen to prominence now because they’re a light infantry force more skilled than RuAF average, at the time when there seems to be 0 fresh RuAF infantry available on the frontlines. They’re not really good or really big, they’re just available and really good at PR. Prigozhin’s endgame here, to me, is a low-level seat on the national security council. The cards are really stacked against him otherwise, in terms of who can get to order military around, unless he can convince Putin personally to put the foot down and make Prigozhin the next minister of defence or some such, but Shoygu shows no indications of being on his way out either.
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Sep 26, 2022 18:51
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Man Plan Canal posted:At the risk of inflating my ego, [lots of words] That’s actually really cool, thanks for sharing!
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Sep 26, 2022 18:51
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WarpedLichen posted:As I understood it he didn't really have much choice in the matter once he was on the run from the law. Not an expert on international law but I'm not sure if there were any western country he could've taken refuge in that wouldn't have extradited him to the US. He could take the Assange route and ask for protection in the Ecuadorian embassy in Moscow 
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Sep 26, 2022 18:54
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OddObserver posted:Putin not showing up to regional Armed Forces of Ukraine headquarters should not be considered paranoia... Putin is paranoid, but yes him not setting foot anywhere vaguely near Ukraine is a normal good idea for someone who is solely responsible for starting the war. Especially with mobilization less than a week in, I'd give it a coin flip between him getting capped by a Ukrainian partisan or a disgruntled Russian draftee.
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Sep 26, 2022 18:55
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saratoga posted:The problem here is not that the goals are illogical, but rather a lack of prioritization. Is controlling the capital of Kherson more important than securing Kharkov? Apparently no one could decide, both got a fraction of the resources they needed to succeed, and both are now going to fail (or already have). And the same thing is now repeating along the Oskil and on Bakhmut. In the end it seems like Kherson is the more valuable target for Putin, but not because he loves Kherson so much. It's because it's a buffer for Crimea and Sevastopol, where all of this started and which is still the only officially annexed part. Kherson and Zaporizhia oblasts are probably more important for Putin than Luhansk and Donetsk because by keeping them in Russian hands the logistics of Crimea can be maintained and Kerch bridge be protected. If Donbas falls to Ukrainian forces, well, too bad. Russian propaganda can then tell about reprisals by Kiev fascists and interview sobbing refugees and by that keep those who believe in the Kremlin narrative convinced.
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Sep 26, 2022 19:11
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Nenonen posted:He could take the Assange route and ask for protection in the Ecuadorian embassy in Moscow Yeah to be honest after seeing the Assange Manning Snowden routes I think I’d go the Snowden route. He’s not leaving Russia any time ever so he might as well get citizenship. Seems like a completely reasonable thing to do, since then there’s a much more minimal risk of Russia horse trading him to the US for whatever random thing they want. Not that it completely protects you, but the US doesn’t seem to go around assassinating dissident citizens like Saudi Arabia or Russia.
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Sep 26, 2022 19:12
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Nenonen posted:In the end it seems like Kherson is the more valuable target for Putin, but not because he loves Kherson so much. It's because it's a buffer for Crimea and Sevastopol, where all of this started and which is still the only officially annexed part. Donetsk oblast’ is necessary for the land bridge. Luhansk, on the other hand, serves no practical purpose in your line of thought indeed - worst case scenario, it may require Russia to lay a railway down.
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Dagestan is starting to Do Things, it seems: Dagestani communities have declared mobilization officials to be enemies of Allah: https://twitter.com/WhereisRussia/status/1574403906528067584?s=20&t=MovkEQVRn-HvzStU83D7jw Talk of building roadblocks: https://twitter.com/intermarium24/status/1574397418451644418?s=20&t=0BlyT0PI0f30a73_g5gvJQ Second round of anti-mobilization protests (  for police violence vs protestors, no gore or anything): https://twitter.com/intermarium24/status/1574386849191264256?s=20&t=dsw4J-yu_08ddaUdAPqg1w Kadyrov ordered to bring Dagestan back in line: https://twitter.com/intermarium24/status/1574386849191264256?s=20&t=dsw4J-yu_08ddaUdAPqg1w HonorableTB fucked around with this message at 19:21 on Sep 26, 2022 |
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Sep 26, 2022 19:19
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