|
FishBulbia posted:That's what I'm saying. This doesn't seem like a warhead. Ahh, your saying it probably was the truck. Yeah, these boat theories just don't hold up for me either.
|
#
?
Oct 8, 2022 22:01
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 3, 2024 21:34 |
|
|
gay picnic defence posted:A truck that size could quite easily carry 20 tons of ammonium nitrate, which is a whole lot of bomb.
|
|
#
?
Oct 8, 2022 22:05
|
|
|
ShadowHawk posted:Would a bomb that big have the effect we saw, or something larger? No idea. For what it’s worth the Oklahoma bombing used just 2 tons of ammonium nitrate and it tore a building apart.
|
|
#
?
Oct 8, 2022 22:11
|
|
|
Segments of the public seem to be taking it all in stride https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1578845178588434432?t=TtnUgCpusQnRdLc8rCy5FQ&s=19
|
|
#
?
Oct 8, 2022 22:17
|
|
|
ShadowHawk posted:Would a bomb that big have the effect we saw, or something larger? It really depends on what explosive got used and how it explodes. Ukraine has gotten their hands on all sorts of explosives through donations from the west and capturing stuff from the Russians. There's probably still widespread corruption in the Russian ranks so perhaps they did not even need to smuggle it into Russia, just steal/buy whatever was locally available. I imagine that the FSB should be able to determine exactly what explosive(s) got used, but any info they put out is going to be untrustworthy and an independent international investigate is not going to happen in time to be accurate.
|
|
#
?
Oct 8, 2022 22:32
|
|
|
We shouldn't rule out the possibility that multiple agencies had an idea of giving Mr. Putin a 70 years plus one day gift without consulting each other, so at the break of dawn the bridge was hit simultaneously by a missile, a truck bomb, a train bomb, a boat bomb, a drone and explosives placed before by special forces. It's just that many of the explosions counter-effected each other, so in the end it was less than the sum of its parts. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
|
|
#
?
Oct 8, 2022 22:32
|
|
|
https://mobile.twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1578853269736394753
|
|
#
?
Oct 8, 2022 22:33
|
|
|
nimby posted:I imagine that the FSB should be able to determine exactly what explosive(s) got used, but any info they put out is going to be untrustworthy and an independent international investigate is not going to happen in time to be accurate. We should absolutely demand that Ukraine and the EU participate in the investigation, otherwise there's no way we can be certain that it is objective. It's only fair.
|
|
#
?
Oct 8, 2022 22:51
|
|
|
I realise others have said it, but this is a top quality post. poo poo like this is why this 20+ year old dying website is still worth it.
|
|
#
?
Oct 8, 2022 23:16
|
|
|
Nothingtoseehere posted:From the Maxar imagery, it's clear the double-span railway over the bridge has been downgraded to single-span until the burning wreckage has been removed, which is a big decrease in capacity. Even ignoring any structural damage that reduces the capacity of the railways long term or risk of catastrophic collapse later. My impression is that most of the military supplies came by rail, though. If the explosion had little impact on the rail (and apparently trains are already crossing on the rail bridge; see FishBulbia's post above), my impression is that it won't have much impact on the supply situation for Russia. Certainly symbolic, though--and should note, although trains appear to be crossing, it's unclear yet whether they will have the same number, weight, speed, etc. as previous trains (the one above is a passenger train). So it's still possible it could have at least some effect. Sir John Falstaff fucked around with this message at 23:59 on Oct 8, 2022 |
|
#
?
Oct 8, 2022 23:41
|
|
|
Rigel posted:The OKC federal building was blown to hell with just a truck bomb. The physics involved were different. Since the truck bomb detonated at the base of the building that allowed gravity to amply the effect of the blast in terms of structural stress. A truck bomb on top of a bridge isn't going to effect the structure in the same way.
|
|
#
?
Oct 8, 2022 23:53
|
|
|
Sir John Falstaff posted:My impression is that most of the military supplies came by rail, though. If the explosion had little impact on the rail (and apparently trains are already crossing on the rail bridge; see FishBulbia's post above), my impression is that it won't have much impact on the supply situation for Russia. Certainly symbolic, though--and should note, although trains appear to be crossing, it's unclear yet whether they will have the same number, weight, speed, etc. as previous trains (the one above is a passenger train). So it's still possible it could have at least some effect. One rail line is out of commission, at least for the moment. They can only send one train at a time across, which slows down logistics. It's not as pronounced as cutting it outright, but making slow Russian logi even slower (and making it compete with civilian needs) does have an impact. We'll see how easy/difficult it is to free/ditch the stuck railcars.
|
|
#
?
Oct 9, 2022 00:03
|
|
|
OAquinas posted:One rail line is out of commission, at least for the moment. They can only send one train at a time across, which slows down logistics. It's not as pronounced as cutting it outright, but making slow Russian logi even slower (and making it compete with civilian needs) does have an impact. Oh, right--sorry, I misread the previous post. I thought it was talking about the road bridge. Yeah, it may have an impact; we'll just have to see how much damage was done.
|
|
#
?
Oct 9, 2022 00:08
|
|
|
I wonder if they could just… bomb it again? Like how does one realistically prevent a swarm of suicide drone boats along a 20km long bridge? The radar profile of those boats (the ones that the Russians “found” a few months ago) looks prettttty tiny.
|
|
#
?
Oct 9, 2022 00:30
|
|
|
chupacabraTERROR posted:I wonder if they could just… bomb it again? Like how does one realistically prevent a swarm of suicide drone boats along a 20km long bridge? The radar profile of those boats (the ones that the Russians “found” a few months ago) looks prettttty tiny. The boats look pretty tiny period. Could one of them really have caused the kind of damage we're seeing? That's one of my main issues with the boat theory. It is entirely possible I'm underestimating what explosives are capable of, I'm not an expert in any sense of the word
|
|
#
?
Oct 9, 2022 00:50
|
|
|
Vincent Van Goatse posted:The physics involved were different. Since the truck bomb detonated at the base of the building that allowed gravity to amply the effect of the blast in terms of structural stress. A truck bomb on top of a bridge isn't going to effect the structure in the same way. Yep. Setting off a bomb on top of a hard surface usually just results in the stuff to the sides/above getting blasted - as those are in the path of least resistance. Bridges are designed to accommodate substantial force pushing downward on them to begin with, so you blow a bomb up on the surface and you might make a little crater in the concrete while the vast majority of the explosion's force is going to end up going everywhere except down. In this conflict this thread illustrated that point with those photos of HIMARS impacts on bridges. Little potholes on top of or through the structure, partially due to a supersonic rocket ramming into it before any explosives went off. You blow up the same bomb *under* the same bridge and suddenly all that force ends up sandwiched between the ground/water and the bridge above it so a lot more force from the explosion is going into the bridge, which is also not designed to accommodate forces pushing it *up*. That's a lot more likely to throw sections of the bridge out of place or snap them apart. Warbadger fucked around with this message at 01:01 on Oct 9, 2022 |
|
#
?
Oct 9, 2022 00:55
|
|
|
The best kind of post, when someone in the threads turns out to have specialisation closely related to a specific technical story.  Here’s another piece, or hammer, into the puzzle. Oddly lacking in residue from the bottom, comparing to Maxar top pics. https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1578843111178264578
|
|
#
?
Oct 9, 2022 00:59
|
|
|
KitConstantine posted:Oh my God who is in those cars? Who would risk it? I assume money changed hands There's still a lot of civilians in Crimea desperate to get out and there are no plane tickets, or boats. And nobody wants to risk trying to run through the warzone.
|
|
#
?
Oct 9, 2022 01:04
|
|
|
Skippy McPants posted:That sounds strange. How would Ukraine get a truck packed with explosives to the bridge? Many normal and relatively common hazardous materials could be used for something like this. Bar Ran Dun fucked around with this message at 02:35 on Oct 9, 2022 |
|
#
?
Oct 9, 2022 01:56
|
|
|
cinci zoo sniper posted:Here’s another piece, or hammer, into the puzzle. Oddly lacking in residue from the bottom, comparing to Maxar top pics. My god, it was flood damage
|
|
#
?
Oct 9, 2022 02:06
|
|
|
Ukraine would like to talk to you about your bridge's extended warranty.
|
|
#
?
Oct 9, 2022 02:15
|
|
|
EggsAisle posted:The boats look pretty tiny period. Could one of them really have caused the kind of damage we're seeing? That's one of my main issues with the boat theory. It is entirely possible I'm underestimating what explosives are capable of, I'm not an expert in any sense of the word In this case probably not. But you can fit an awful lot of explosives in a not very big boat, and they could be reasonably hard to defend against, and the blast force would be coming from a direction a bridge is not built for.
|
|
#
?
Oct 9, 2022 02:16
|
|
|
Aertuun posted:The inspection of the truck at the start of the bridge is on video, and appears to be very minimal. If a truck is full of IBCs to the tail what is there for them to do in an inspection? It’s not like they can unload it at a road stop.
|
|
#
?
Oct 9, 2022 02:32
|
|
|
Vincent Van Goatse posted:The physics involved were different. Since the truck bomb detonated at the base of the building that allowed gravity to amply the effect of the blast in terms of structural stress. A truck bomb on top of a bridge isn't going to effect the structure in the same way. You can easily put 20 metric tons of whatever in a 40’ container or trailer. A forty can take 18 IBCs.
|
|
#
?
Oct 9, 2022 02:34
|
|
|
EggsAisle posted:The boats look pretty tiny period. Could one of them really have caused the kind of damage we're seeing? That's one of my main issues with the boat theory. It is entirely possible I'm underestimating what explosives are capable of, I'm not an expert in any sense of the word While that boat was pretty small, it was bigger than I initially thought when seen from a different angle:  I feel like you could pretty easily build one of these double or triple the size that still rides low in the water and has enough room for a hell of a lot of explosives. Would be relatively cheap and very hard to see at night and there would be no reason you couldn't send a whole swarm of them to maximize your chances that more get through. There is most likely already structural damage to that area of the bridge so it might require less explosives a second time to finish it off completely. The risk/reward ratio is so heavily in Ukraine's favor to try something like this that I would be surprised if it didn't happen.
|
|
#
?
Oct 9, 2022 04:10
|
|
|
Another dawn is breaking in Kyiv, and it's still Ukrainian.   
|
|
#
?
Oct 9, 2022 05:10
|
|
|
cinci zoo sniper posted:The best kind of post, when someone in the threads turns out to have specialisation closely related to a specific technical story. Yeah. I really dont think a relatively small exploding drone could ignite a train on a rail way bridge like what, 20 meters above it?
|
|
#
?
Oct 9, 2022 06:20
|
|
|
Alan Smithee posted:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=joD1ogH5eeo https://twitter.com/elsereturn0/status/1578706123863261185?t=CADGfKef7SYGHPnIyFqqPg&s=19 Eh, this was intended as response to Simonyan's "И?" Tweet Sekenr fucked around with this message at 06:42 on Oct 9, 2022 |
|
#
?
Oct 9, 2022 06:33
|
|
|
An iccredible thread detailing A Russian soldiers' account of how Russia's best troops lost hundreds in April to try to take one small village. Fierce fighting but the Ukrainians were 400% more fierce. Russia never took the village, but their troops lied to superiors that they had. cinci edit: infantry getting hit by artillery point blank down the thread  https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1578535556061233152 (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST) Somebody fucked around with this message at 09:30 on Oct 9, 2022 |
|
#
?
Oct 9, 2022 07:16
|
|
|
Paracausal posted:An iccredible thread detailing A Russian soldiers' account of how Russia's best troops lost hundreds in April to try to take one small village. Fierce fighting but the Ukrainians were 400% more fierce. Russia never took the village, but their troops lied to superiors that they had. This really stands out to me: quote:The village already had a reputation as the scene of bloody fighting. Shayga and his fellow soldiers were given the option of refusing to go into the assault, scheduled for the morning of 19 April. "Our regiment’s zampolit [political officer] ... said we are going to Satan’s rear end, so those who want can refuse right here... since later he won’t be taking anyone back if someone wanted to return," Shayga later wrote. The next day, "many company commanders in the two battalions of the 752th regiment told their fighters that we are being sent to a sure death, since the Ukrainians are well prepared. So they said – decide for yourself if you want to go or not." Eighty percent of the battalion refused to go. The attack went ahead anyway with those who volunteered, but it was a disaster. They took six hours to walk 7 km to Dovhenke, under constant artillery fire that killed and wounded many. This is uh... something else. The commanders just giving them the option whether to attack or not suggests that officers have mostly lost control and are at a point where they have to ask instead of order because they know they'll just get fragged otherwise. No wonder things have been going so badly for them. Incompetence and logistic issues is one thing but having to ask politely for your troops to attack...jesus even Spetsnaz said no! Somebody fucked around with this message at 09:30 on Oct 9, 2022 |
|
#
?
Oct 9, 2022 07:32
|
|
|
Paracausal posted:An iccredible thread detailing A Russian soldiers' account of how Russia's best troops lost hundreds in April to try to take one small village. Fierce fighting but the Ukrainians were 400% more fierce. Russia never took the village, but their troops lied to superiors that they had. Outside of letting soldiers refuse to fight that's some real WW1 poo poo right there Somebody fucked around with this message at 09:31 on Oct 9, 2022 |
|
#
?
Oct 9, 2022 07:36
|
|
|
And that was back in April. Can’t imagine the state of their morale now.
|
|
#
?
Oct 9, 2022 07:37
|
|
|
Good thread. I was really struck by this picture: Several hundred artillery and mortar rounds expended, to almost zero effect. War is such a goddamned waste.
|
|
#
?
Oct 9, 2022 07:39
|
|
|
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RWq-ngg7JC8 Thread favorite Perun uploaded a new video today. I really enjoy guest episodes and it was a good listen while on the road. Its your standard fare you'd expect but Ben Hodges said something that really shocked me at exactly at the 1hr 4m mark: "...Ukraine has irreversible momentum. I expect they will push Russian forces back to the 23 February line before the end of this year, and that they will take Crimea by next summer..." That seems like a pretty huge statement to make from anyone and something I didn't really expect to hear. What did everyone else think about the interview?
|
|
#
?
Oct 9, 2022 07:40
|
|
|
NTRabbit posted:Outside of letting soldiers refuse to fight that's some real WW1 poo poo right there It illustrates why they've made so little progress for so long and had to mobilize - wasting all that manpower on constant small attacks on the strongest points on the frontline instead of massing and hitting the weakest points.
|
|
#
?
Oct 9, 2022 08:00
|
|
|
Owling Howl posted:It illustrates why they've made so little progress for so long and had to mobilize - wasting all that manpower on constant small attacks on the strongest points on the frontline instead of massing and hitting the weakest points. It sounds like someone sat down and read everything they could on Soviet Deep Battle strategy, and then said, "right guys let's do the exact opposite of this"
|
|
#
?
Oct 9, 2022 08:42
|
|
|
German article on the state of the investigation of the rail sabotage yesterday: https://www.spiegel.de/panorama/deutsche-bahn-ausfaelle-nach-sabotage-was-wir-wissen-und-was-nicht-a-91206854-5df7-40e6-b70b-df8a5f2477b6 At ~2 am they cut an import data cable using a saw, then some time later cut the backup line in a different place. Seems like they had pretty detailed insider knowledge about the importance of the line and the location of it and the backup. Doesn't look like vandalism. Not political activists either since those usually publicly take credit for it(what's the point otherwise?) Very possible that this was a state actor. Does the timeline match up with this being a revenge/intimidation about the Kerch bridge? Russia had no qualms about doing assassinations and sabotage acts of IT infrastructure on German soil even before the war.
|
|
#
?
Oct 9, 2022 08:53
|
|
|
Paracausal posted:An iccredible thread detailing A Russian soldiers' account of how Russia's best troops lost hundreds in April to try to take one small village. Fierce fighting but the Ukrainians were 400% more fierce. Russia never took the village, but their troops lied to superiors that they had. buglord posted:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RWq-ngg7JC8 Haven't watched it yet. But this sentiment is in line with Girkin so, uh... The russians are spread pretty thin and especially with the bridge throughput now limited, are going to have even more logistical problems. Hopefully the rail part can be destroyed soon which would be even better. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST) Somebody fucked around with this message at 09:33 on Oct 9, 2022 |
|
#
?
Oct 9, 2022 09:14
|
|
|
GABA ghoul posted:German article on the state of the investigation of the rail sabotage yesterday: No, the Kerch bridge was hit at 6:07 am local time on Saturday, which would be 5:07 am in Berlin. And anyway, an attack like that would take a lot more planning. Could be general revenge/intimidation over supplying weapons, etc., though.
|
|
#
?
Oct 9, 2022 09:23
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 3, 2024 21:34 |
|
|
Good thread on the suppliers selling private kit to Russian soldiers. To say that they're beyond swamped would be an understatement. Just a stunning indictment of the Russian army's inability to supply this stuff themselves https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1578793661722112000?s=20&t=ElAZWa41QUGq7_LIkDt5WQ
|
|
#
?
Oct 9, 2022 10:13
|
|
