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Young Freud posted:Does this mean Russia is letting their imported administrators and collaborators swing in the wind while the military bails out of Kherson? Collaborators are the occupation authorities/state employees. As major of a non-security part of that apparatus as logistics would make possible, anyways.
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Oct 18, 2022 21:58
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Deteriorata posted:No, it's been reported numerous times that they're being evacuated to Crimea. That's not going to be far enough
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Oct 18, 2022 22:03
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https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1582477140238696448 It's fine, Kherson was just a feint
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Oct 18, 2022 22:04
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With all this talk of Kherson, it makes me wonder if the Russians know something we don't. As far as I know, everything's been quiet on that front lately. True, the Ukrainians were talking about a media blackout, but I feel like we would have heard something from the other side by now.
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Oct 18, 2022 22:05
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Phlegmish posted:With all this talk of Kherson, it makes me wonder if the Russians know something we don't. As far as I know, everything's been quiet on that front lately. True, the Ukrainians were talking about a media blackout, but I feel like we would have heard something from the other side by now. It's possible it's just that Ukraine is massing forces ready for a major attack and they know they can't withstand it. Would be pretty funny if an attack on the Kherson front is just a bluff to cover for an attack elsewhere, and the Russians end up retreating anyway
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Oct 18, 2022 22:07
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I am amazed what new terms they keep inventing for retreat. We all know "gesture of good will", "movement for further reorganization", now its new "planned relocation" 😁
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Oct 18, 2022 22:10
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Is a convenient excuse to displace and remove all civilians just a pretext? So that they can, say, assume everyone remaining in the area is a legitimate target; or change the demographics of an area for political purposes; or to reduce the density of witnesses with cameras for operational security reasons; or something else I don't immediately imagine?
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Oct 18, 2022 22:10
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Chalks posted:https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1582477140238696448 Are they required to always in “Ukronazis, pushed by the west” anytime they mention Ukrainian forces?
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Oct 18, 2022 22:12
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Phlegmish posted:With all this talk of Kherson, it makes me wonder if the Russians know something we don't. As far as I know, everything's been quiet on that front lately. True, the Ukrainians were talking about a media blackout, but I feel like we would have heard something from the other side by now. This might be my sleepy brain thoughts, but well - aren't we in the middle of hearing something right now?
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Oct 18, 2022 22:13
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Thanks for the clarifications. I couldn't remember what "gesture of goodwill" referred to, but I get it now. Inshallah that they're just running away again.
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Oct 18, 2022 22:13
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Phlegmish posted:With all this talk of Kherson, it makes me wonder if the Russians know something we don't. As far as I know, everything's been quiet on that front lately. True, the Ukrainians were talking about a media blackout, but I feel like we would have heard something from the other side by now. I think this is the 'hearing from the other side' part.
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Oct 18, 2022 22:15
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OzyMandrill posted:I think this is the 'hearing from the other side' part. I guess you guys are right, though I was expecting the usual 'Ukrainian nazis have broken through our lines and captured villages X, Y and Z' first. What we're hearing from the Russians now just makes it seem like they're retreating before the Ukrainians have even started attacking.
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Oct 18, 2022 22:20
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Phlegmish posted:With all this talk of Kherson, it makes me wonder if the Russians know something we don't. As far as I know, everything's been quiet on that front lately. True, the Ukrainians were talking about a media blackout, but I feel like we would have heard something from the other side by now. There is a major offensive unfolding now. Ukraine has requested a complete media blackout of the offensive, so we haven't been hearing anything.
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Oct 18, 2022 22:22
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Phlegmish posted:I guess you guys are right, though I was expecting the usual 'Ukrainian nazis have broken through our lines and captured villages X, Y and Z' first. What we're hearing from the Russians now just makes it seem like they're retreating before the Ukrainians have even started attacking. Grand, sweeping gestures of pre-emptive goodwill
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Oct 18, 2022 22:23
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Phlegmish posted:I guess you guys are right, though I was expecting the usual 'Ukrainian nazis have broken through our lines and captured villages X, Y and Z' first. What we're hearing from the Russians now just makes it seem like they're retreating before the Ukrainians have even started attacking. Kherson has been strained for a while with resupply issues. It's entirely possible they realize they don't have the stores for a pitched fight (along with possibly lacking soldiers willing to die for Kherson) and are seeking to conserve their forces. Crossing the Dnipro and fortifying on the other bank is--if not sound tactics, far better than prosecuting a losing position.
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Oct 18, 2022 22:24
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Phlegmish posted:I guess you guys are right, though I was expecting the usual 'Ukrainian nazis have broken through our lines and captured villages X, Y and Z' first. What we're hearing from the Russians now just makes it seem like they're retreating before the Ukrainians have even started attacking. It may also be that the fighting is largely a stalemate, but the Russians are counting their bullets and shells and fuel and realizing that they're about done. They're getting some supplies across the river, but nowhere near enough to sustain combat - so getting out while they can is the call.
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Oct 18, 2022 22:25
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Phlegmish posted:With all this talk of Kherson, it makes me wonder if the Russians know something we don't. As far as I know, everything's been quiet on that front lately. True, the Ukrainians were talking about a media blackout, but I feel like we would have heard something from the other side by now. Also there was that weird statement from some unnamed Western officials last week about how it may be liberated this week that caused the same reaction for me. If anything the news we hear are good for Russians --- they built that barge bridge near Antonivsky bridge, and Crimea bridge seems to be at least somewhat functional for rail...
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Oct 18, 2022 22:28
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They probably realized it's time to take an L in that direction due to attrition and there really haven't been any Russian offensive actions anyway since March/April there.
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Oct 18, 2022 22:42
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OddObserver posted:Also there was that weird statement from some unnamed Western officials last week about how it may be liberated this week that caused the same reaction for me. If anything the news we hear are good for Russians --- they built that barge bridge near Antonivsky bridge, and Crimea bridge seems to be at least somewhat functional for rail... The situation west of the river was already very bad for Russia before the strike against the Crimean bridge. That bridge is down to 20% capacity or lower which is very bad news for the entire southern front and could be fatal for the already precarious Kherson area. Given this recent talk by Russia, I wonder if the barge bridge has been left in place by Ukraine to give the Russians a route to retreat through. Ukraine is very capable of hitting the area with HIMARS when the retreat is attempted, and giving them the opportunity to escape and hitting them on the run is exactly what they did at Lyman too.
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Oct 18, 2022 22:48
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Phlegmish posted:I guess you guys are right, though I was expecting the usual 'Ukrainian nazis have broken through our lines and captured villages X, Y and Z' first. What we're hearing from the Russians now just makes it seem like they're retreating before the Ukrainians have even started attacking. The people who posted those things last time got either threatened with charges or actually charged for "discrediting the Russian army". We are not likely to get anything like the visibility we had into the offensive last time.
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Oct 18, 2022 22:49
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Eric Cantonese posted:Ugh. The GOP is playing right into Putin's hands. The worst part is that the GOP looks at Russia and doesn't see abject failure but instead desperately wants to emulate them. I guess they think they'll be ones with all the yachts. On the bright side, that might set the stage for Canada and/or Mexico destroying America's military in a conventional war. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Oct 18, 2022 23:09
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Since the start of this my big worry has always been Putin's ideological allies gaining power in enough western countries to cut Ukraine off from aid. I'm still terrified of this happening, specially in the US 
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Oct 18, 2022 23:15
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Sekenr posted:I am amazed what new terms they keep inventing for retreat. We all know "gesture of good will", "movement for further reorganization", now its new "planned relocation" 😁 Or, perhaps, “the most difficult decision”. https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1582433551467044865 Leperflesh posted:Is a convenient excuse to displace and remove all civilians just a pretext? So that they can, say, assume everyone remaining in the area is a legitimate target; or change the demographics of an area for political purposes; or to reduce the density of witnesses with cameras for operational security reasons; or something else I don't immediately imagine? I’m not sure they need pretext to just crank up brutality in the area, but as a measure aimed at trying to reduce suspected Ukrainian partisans per city block this could have some practical significance. That said, if they actually follow through with a mass evacuation from Kherson, the internal political cost of doing so would to me handily outweigh the political cost of any practically conceivable collateral damage that they could cause, e.g., by mass artillery fire in a reckless vicinity of a presently occupied village.
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Oct 18, 2022 23:17
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Baronjutter posted:Since the start of this my big worry has always been Putin's ideological allies gaining power in enough western countries to cut Ukraine off from aid. I'm still terrified of this happening, specially in the US That is a very legitimate fear. Especially if Trump wins in 2024. Not that the Republicans aren't already making noises about how if they win the House they're cutting aid. quote:McCarthy, who could be House speaker if Republicans triumph, indicated that that could end in a GOP-led House. Oracle fucked around with this message at 00:44 on Oct 19, 2022 |
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Oct 19, 2022 00:40
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Oracle posted:That is a very legitimate fear. Especially if Trump wins in 2024. or 2022, even. quote:House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy expressed skepticism about sending more aid to Ukraine if Republicans take back the House in the upcoming midterm elections.
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Oct 19, 2022 00:45
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Russian military evacuating the civilian population from Kherson over a contested pontoon bridge, while they are also evacuating their own personnel and material. That isn’t anything that could be done with the military we’ve seen here. Crow Buddy fucked around with this message at 01:58 on Oct 19, 2022 |
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Oct 19, 2022 00:53
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Didn’t lend-lease go into effect on October 1st?
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Oct 19, 2022 00:54
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MechanicalTomPetty posted:Didn’t lend-lease go into effect on October 1st? Lend-lease allows Biden to transfer military equipment but as far as I know Ukraine is also extremely dependent on foreign money to keep the lights on (ex: paying the soldiers).
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Oct 19, 2022 00:57
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MechanicalTomPetty posted:Didn’t lend-lease go into effect on October 1st? Yes they would need to vote to strip the power from Biden and that won't happen.
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Oct 19, 2022 00:58
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Crow Buddy posted:Russian military evacuating the civilian population from Kherson over a contested pontoon bridge, while they are also evacuating their own personnel and material. Human shields.
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Oct 19, 2022 01:01
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WarpedLichen posted:Lend-lease allows Biden to transfer military equipment but as far as I know Ukraine is also extremely dependent on foreign money to keep the lights on (ex: paying the soldiers). They haven't been getting cash from the usa. Our aid has been weapons and munitions, and we can keep "lending" it if congress won't let us give it away.
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Oct 19, 2022 01:21
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Rigel posted:They haven't been getting cash from the usa. Our aid has been weapons and munitions, and we can keep "lending" it if congress won't let us give it away. That just seems untrue? Take the below for instance. https://www.usaid.gov/news-information/press-releases/aug-08-2022-united-states-contributes-45-billion-support-government-ukraine https://www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-against-ukraine/ukraine-support-tracker/ That lists US non military support to Ukraine at 15.8 billion euros?
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Oct 19, 2022 01:41
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Mr Luxury Yacht posted:I always laugh when the line "Americans are soft and will never respond to a suprise attack on American soil" gets trotted out. Historically it's like the one thing guaranteed to turn the American public into frothing mad revenge elementals dedicated to bombing something . why do people keep falling for it. depending on the majority size in the house mixed plus senate probably held by dems, he won't be able to do dick. the GOP poohbahs love this war because they can finally fight the Russians and will probably for once ignore trump and the pro Russians caucus. Crow Buddy posted:Russian military evacuating the civilian population from Kherson over a contested pontoon bridge, while they are also evacuating their own personnel and material. they are trying to use them as human shields and poo poo and hostages. loving ISIS terror poo poo. MechanicalTomPetty posted:Didn’t lend-lease go into effect on October 1st?
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Oct 19, 2022 01:51
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Dapper_Swindler posted:they are trying to use them as human shields and poo poo and hostages. loving ISIS terror poo poo. Oh the intention is quite clear, but the logistics of packing up a city the size of Kherson and moving them with your retreating army will be beyond them. Perhaps some useful collaborators will be put on a bus, but I doubt they have transports for their own guys. Hopefully, UAF will get a heads up if they start rounding people up and remove the exit for them go anywhere. * This is the Russian military though so it wouldn't be a stretch for them to prioritize a bunch of human shields, but leave behind a couple of tank divisions (and the men.)
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Oct 19, 2022 02:03
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Crow Buddy posted:Oh the intention is quite clear, but the logistics of packing up a city the size of Kherson and moving them with your retreating army will be beyond them. i mean i assume UA inteligence and 5 eyes/etc have known about this plan before it was announced, maybe they will try to get to kherson before they can try to pull it off.
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Oct 19, 2022 02:08
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Rigel posted:They haven't been getting cash from the usa. Our aid has been weapons and munitions, and we can keep "lending" it if congress won't let us give it away. quote:The United States has disbursed $8.5 billion in economic aid and will disburse another $4.5 billion by the end of the year, while U.S. officials say the European Union has pledged 11 billion euros but only disbursed about 3 billion in loans.
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Oct 19, 2022 02:15
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Republicans supporting Putin is not surprising in the least, and the fact that their entire platform is 'oppose Democrats' just fits nicely with that in mind.
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Oct 19, 2022 02:15
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Dapper_Swindler posted:i mean i assume UA inteligence and 5 eyes/etc have known about this plan before it was announced, maybe they will try to get to kherson before they can try to pull it off. There is only one road outta town, and it exists at the UAF's discretion. I doubt it will get to that. I am not sure the Americans could pull off that evacuation, in America, in peace time.
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Oct 19, 2022 02:29
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Crow Buddy posted:There is only one road outta town, and it exists at the UAF's discretion. I doubt it will get to that. It'll be fine, there is an airbase just outside the city, they can ship people out from there. I'm sure it's still in good shape.  (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Oct 19, 2022 02:35
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Crow Buddy posted:There is only one road outta town, and it exists at the UAF's discretion. I doubt it will get to that. Well, technically one can also take some pontoon bridges over the Inhulets and then some ad-doc bridges over the lock at the Nova Kahovka dam. Of course, if they actually cared about civilian safety they would just let them go to Mykolayiv.
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Oct 19, 2022 02:38
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