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MikeC posted:They sustained a 2-month long defense of Kherson City and adjacent areas using artillery to break up Ukrainian attacks and were supplied along those same lines of communications except they had in some cases up to 2 additional water crossings to make to supply some units. They will do just fine. That defense ended because it was unsustainable.
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Dec 4, 2022 02:29
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MikeC posted:They sustained a 2-month long defense of Kherson City and adjacent areas using artillery to break up Ukrainian attacks and were supplied along those same lines of communications except they had in some cases up to 2 additional water crossings to make to supply some units. They will do just fine. They had working railroad from Russia all the way to the front when that defense started, and built up stockpiles. After they started losing logistics and stockpiles, observers both inside their lines and outside noted that their volume of fire eventually fell to a fraction of what it used to be. Then they withdrew from the most important city they had captured without a fight. They absolutely did not manage to maintain their defense over those degraded supply lines.
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Dec 4, 2022 02:45
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on "what does holding out for two months mean re: the effectiveness of your supply lines": general palus sustained a defense of the Stalingrad pocket for two months following the beginning of its encirclement.
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Dec 4, 2022 03:30
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https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1599111452329013248 Macron is a loving idiot and anyone else who says that "NATO expansion" caused the war
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Dec 4, 2022 06:10
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Willo567 posted:https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1599111452329013248 Smug, dumb traitor.
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Dec 4, 2022 06:13
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Macron wants a Nobel peace prize and will sacrifice any amount of peace needed to get it
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Dec 4, 2022 06:18
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NTRabbit posted:Macron wants a Nobel peace prize and will sacrifice any amount of peace needed to get it https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P3K9yosk8cI
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Dec 4, 2022 06:27
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Russia is so concerned about NATO on its doorstep that it's willing to annex and integrate the countries between itself and NATO, dramatically increasing the shared border with NATO. Also willing to strip away every unit on the NATO border to attempt said annexation.
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Dec 4, 2022 06:31
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Excuse me if this is off topic, but I got a geopolitical question. I understand Turkey controls the flow of traffic to the Black Sea but also that Russia's navy has played a diminished role and lost valuable manpower during the initial stages of the invasion (loss of deployed marines). How much does Turkey's role play in assisting Ukraine right now? I ask this because Turkey is stirring the pot again in the Northern Syria where the U.S. has a rare ally in the majority Kurdish SDF. Considering what happened in Afrin following a similar week of artillery and aerial bombardment, a small invasion is possible soon and their commander penned a well written letter to the Washington Post pleading for verbal support from the U.S. Can the U.S. assert it's interests in Syria without jeopardizing Ukraine's security?
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Dec 4, 2022 08:15
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RockWhisperer posted:Excuse me if this is off topic, but I got a geopolitical question. I understand Turkey controls the flow of traffic to the Black Sea but also that Russia's navy has played a diminished role and lost valuable manpower during the initial stages of the invasion (loss of deployed marines). How much does Turkey's role play in assisting Ukraine right now? the us probably won't press turkey at this juncture, not so much because ukraine's security is at stake, but because turkey's has a veto for swedish and finnish entry into nato in their back pocket. in my opinion, the us is more invested in seeing that happen than sustaining our kurdish allies if turkey didn't have that leverage than i think there would be a much better chance of at least some kind of push back in northern syria. turkey isn't providing all that much assistance to ukraine now, even accounting for the closing of the bosporus. their biggest contributions are selling some arms and drones (very important early in the war, less so now), putting together the deal that lets ukraine bring more of their wheat to market, and (maybe?) limiting the amount of sanctions busting they could facilitate. so in my eyes, nothing critical to ukrainian security
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Dec 4, 2022 09:38
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Willo567 posted:https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1599111452329013248 Uh-huh. I think Finland joining NATO also counts as NATO expanding right to Russia's doorstep, but that seemed okay with Macron when France approved the accession some months ago.
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Dec 4, 2022 10:14
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cinci zoo sniper posted:I'm not sure it's that easy, but events on the ground should speed up in a few weeks, since it remains a notch too muddy in the popular areas. P66 is the place to watch for now, more and more Russian “war correspondents” are experiencing “unease” or marking parts of it as “grey zone”. It'll be interesting to see if Russia decide to defend the blue line. The red line is vital for the defence of Severodonetsk, but there's not much the blue line would be defending and collapsing it down to the Wagner line would dramatically reduce the length of the front for them. Obviously, it would be a gigantic propaganda loss, so I guess we'll see what is more important.
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Dec 4, 2022 13:13
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Willo567 posted:Macron is a loving idiot and anyone else who says that "NATO expansion" caused the war You're missing the point that since Putin has been harping so much about NATO, negotiations/concessions about NATO assets is a much easier diplomatic starting point for an eventual settlement than any kind of territorial concessions by Ukraine. This is firmly in the context of "let's have a face-saving off-ramp for Putin", precisely because the war hasn't actually been about NATO.
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Dec 4, 2022 15:04
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Yeah y'all are reading Macron's statement in the dumbest, angriest way possible. He is not saying "NATO expansion" is the cause for the war or any of that bullshit. And gently caress it, I'm for a NATO-Russia security agreement post-Vova. I'd really not like to live in a perpetual cold war where Russia is a giant DPRK.
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Dec 4, 2022 15:15
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Edgar Allen Ho posted:Yeah y'all are reading Macron's statement in the dumbest, angriest way possible. He is not saying "NATO expansion" is the cause for the war or any of that bullshit. And gently caress it, I'm for a NATO-Russia security agreement post-Vova. I'd really not like to live in a perpetual cold war where Russia is a giant DPRK. THIS time Russia will honor its treaties, surely.
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Dec 4, 2022 15:25
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golden bubble posted:https://static.rusi.org/359-SR-Ukraine-Preliminary-Lessons-Feb-July-2022-web-final.pdf quote:BEFORE 24 FEBRUARY 2022, Russia’s potential adversaries, through professional respect, assumed that Russian forces would employ their capabilities with a basic level of competence.  Anyway, not sure if it's the right place to ask, but is saintjavelin.com a vetted, cool and good way of supporting UA and not a scam?
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Dec 4, 2022 15:27
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Hannibal Rex posted:You're missing the point that since Putin has been harping so much about NATO, negotiations/concessions about NATO assets is a much easier diplomatic starting point for an eventual settlement than any kind of territorial concessions by Ukraine. This is firmly in the context of "let's have a face-saving off-ramp for Putin", precisely because the war hasn't actually been about NATO. They literally had a deal ready to go that would ensure Ukraine would never join NATO. Putin invaded anyways https://mobile.twitter.com/ReutersWorld/status/1569951672448811009 Edgar Allen Ho posted:Yeah y'all are reading Macron's statement in the dumbest, angriest way possible. He is not saying "NATO expansion" is the cause for the war or any of that bullshit. And gently caress it, I'm for a NATO-Russia security agreement post-Vova. I'd really not like to live in a perpetual cold war where Russia is a giant DPRK. He's still implying that NATO expansion is a red line for Russia, which the latter has been using to justify their invasion Willo567 fucked around with this message at 16:21 on Dec 4, 2022 |
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Dec 4, 2022 15:52
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The Macron comment also reads as a diss of Russia's ability to protect itself. Only 2nd-tier powers need security guarantees.
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Dec 4, 2022 16:16
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Edgar Allen Ho posted:Yeah y'all are reading Macron's statement in the dumbest, angriest way possible. He is not saying "NATO expansion" is the cause for the war or any of that bullshit. And gently caress it, I'm for a NATO-Russia security agreement post-Vova. I'd really not like to live in a perpetual cold war where Russia is a giant DPRK. If the Kremlin believed there was something to be gained with a negotiated settlement it would have struck a deal while its forces were just looming on the borders. They've now 100% committed themselves to no peace without territorial concessions and will hold on to this delusion until the Russian military withdraws or is pounded into the Ukrainian dirt. Peace can thus at this point only be achieved faster by starving the Russian artillery of shells and fuel by extending the range and pace at which Ukraine can destroy Russian supplies and C&C within its territory. The time for talking with whoever is in charge is once the Russian military has withdrawn to the 1994 borders.
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Dec 4, 2022 16:48
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Pizdec posted:From a couple of pages back, but I do love this part: They delivered stickers to me at least, one on my water bottle and another on some tabletop game stuff to piss off any Russian sympathizers that happen to look at it. Accounts I trust also post fundraisers/announcements for them, so I’m fairly sure they’re legit.
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Dec 4, 2022 16:52
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Pizdec posted:Anyway, not sure if it's the right place to ask, but is saintjavelin.com a vetted, cool and good way of supporting UA and not a scam? Looking at their website, they don’t seem to present any evidence for being a public charity in legal sense, and so I cannot recommend viewing them as vetted, regardless of their track record. cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 16:57 on Dec 4, 2022 |
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Dec 4, 2022 16:55
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Willo567 posted:They literally had a deal ready to go that would ensure Ukraine would never join NATO. Putin invaded anyways I'm aware of that report. Read my previous post again. NATO expansion only having been a pretext doesn't preclude concessions about NATO expansion from becoming a consolidation prize for Putin in exchange for withdrawal from Ukrainian territory, now that he's had to realize he didn't get the short, victorious war he expected. Putin still believes he can win, so there won't be any negotiations until more battlefield changes happen, but this is all part of laying the diplomatic groundwork for later. The X-man cometh posted:The Macron comment also reads as a diss of Russia's ability to protect itself. Only 2nd-tier powers need security guarantees. Nobel Peace Prize winner Emmanuel Macron: "NATO agrees to defend Russia against any future Ukrainan attack, in exchange for Russian withdrawal from all occupied territory."
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Dec 4, 2022 16:58
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Pizdec posted:Anyway, not sure if it's the right place to ask, but is saintjavelin.com a vetted, cool and good way of supporting UA and not a scam? Insofar as they deliver what you've ordered, yes. As for being a legit charity, I don't know. The NAFO crowd would have cried foul if they weren't, presumably.
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Dec 4, 2022 17:01
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One slight issue with NATO concessions, I feel like, is that after this war Ukraine is going to really, really want to secure SOME kind of security guarantee from other countries, and NATO would probably be the most secure form of guarantee available - even if they win this war outright and have the ability to win it again, I can't imagine they'd enjoy paying the price of this year's victories again. Finding allies to make themselves look too prickly for Russia to even attempt to try again in the future is likely going to be a top diplomatic priority. Of course, actual NATO membership is probably pretty unlikely anyways given the complexities involved in securing membership for Ukraine so from that perspective it might be considered a "free win," but I wonder if Putin is going to regard checks on NATO expansion purely as a face-saving exercise, or if he's going to actively push for a peace agreement preventing "Western influence" from reaching Ukraine, for which read "foreign security guarantees and treaties that might prevent Russia from trying again in the future." If the former, well and good, Ukraine can pinky-swear not to join NATO while signing agreements that ensure they'll have backing and assistance from NATO member states in the future (even if it's just guaranteed military contracts for supplies and equipment and such). If the latter, though, a peace in which Ukraine is left isolated to stand alone against future Russian aggression is not I think going to be considered much of a peace at all.
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Dec 4, 2022 17:20
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Jasper Tin Neck posted:If the Kremlin believed there was something to be gained with a negotiated settlement it would have struck a deal while its forces were just looming on the borders. That's not a response to anything I said, note how I said "post-Vova" I'd prefer to not be living in a cold war with a good chunk of my family. I'd like for my entire family to get to visit the fam in Semey like we just did, and then cross the border into Russia to hang with the rest like we didn't because no one wants to get arrested. I'd like a security agreement with Russia because "fear of NATO" is valid and peace agreements are good. None of that means I want to kiss Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin on the lips and surrender ukrainian territory for vague notions of peace. None of that means NATO started the war. Nuance still exists.
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Dec 4, 2022 17:25
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Edgar Allen Ho posted:That's not a response to anything I said, note how I said "post-Vova" I think a peaceful Russia integrated into the EU order is what most people in the West wants, but I'm not sure how we get there really. It's going to take a long time and another regime before that would be possible. What sort of NATO guarantees can even be made? Kick Finland back out? Promise Ukraine can never join (while at the same time guaranteeing Ukrainian security)? It's a nice idea to throw Putin a fig leaf but what possible substance can be behind it?
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Dec 4, 2022 17:33
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Pizdec posted:Anyway, not sure if it's the right place to ask, but is saintjavelin.com a vetted, cool and good way of supporting UA and not a scam? Not a scam, but they have ties to the Ukrainian World Congress, which has ties to the Ukrainian far-right. Maybe someone else wants to unravel or specify this further, but if you just want to make donations, there's a thread with better vetted orgs. https://www.ukrainianworldcongress.org/saint-javelin-donates-us-350000-to-unite-with-ukraine-for-drone-army/ https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stefan_Romaniw
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Dec 4, 2022 17:36
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WarpedLichen posted:I think a peaceful Russia integrated into the EU order is what most people in the West wants, but I'm not sure how we get there really. It's going to take a long time and another regime before that would be possible. What sort of NATO guarantees can even be made? Kick Finland back out? Promise Ukraine can never join (while at the same time guaranteeing Ukrainian security)? Maybe something about long-range missiles and nuclear weapons deployed close to Russia? It is something that Russia used to bring up a lot.
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Dec 4, 2022 17:40
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First Putin murdered Alexander Litvinenko with polonium, now he tried to kill his son by conscripting him to fight in Ukraine. Except there was a minor hitch... https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/dec/03/alexander-litvinenko-poison-polonium-kremlin-russia-war-ukraine-spies quote:Around mid-October, almost a month after Vladimir Putin called for the partial mobilisation of Russian citizens to fight the war in Ukraine, there was a knock at the door of the Moscow flat that is registered as my official residence in the country. Apropos, I just noticed that there's a drama series about Litvinenko starting 15th December, starring David Tenant.
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Dec 4, 2022 17:41
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Edgar Allen Ho posted:"fear of NATO" is valid What do you mean?
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Dec 4, 2022 17:42
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Paladinus posted:Maybe something about long-range missiles and nuclear weapons deployed close to Russia? It is something that Russia used to bring up a lot. Something like the talks they unilaterally cancelled 4 days ago? https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/11/30/russia-us-start-nuclear-treaty/ (bonus lols: https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/5694658) Admittedly, US did quit the other treaty, INF, first, in what looked like Trump doing Trump things. cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 18:05 on Dec 4, 2022 |
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Dec 4, 2022 17:45
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More in Moscow's Shadows: https://www.buzzsprout.com/1026985/11809676
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Dec 4, 2022 17:54
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Edgar Allen Ho posted:That's not a response to anything I said, note how I said "post-Vova" Yes it is. Emmy Mac is selling the skin before he's caught the bear. Whoever comes after Vova will come with their own set of baggage, the contents of which we will find out in due time.
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Dec 4, 2022 18:26
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WarpedLichen posted:I think a peaceful Russia integrated into the EU order is what most people in the West wants, but I'm not sure how we get there really. It's going to take a long time and another regime before that would be possible. What sort of NATO guarantees can even be made? Kick Finland back out? Promise Ukraine can never join (while at the same time guaranteeing Ukrainian security)? The best outcome for Russia at this point is a super-Serbia, as their leadership treads a careful line between domestic needs and actually being a functioning state in the liberal order. They'll constantly Saber rattle and their neighbors will need to be wary, even if it's just smoke and no fire.
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Dec 4, 2022 19:03
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Tomn posted:Of course, actual NATO membership is probably pretty unlikely anyways given the complexities involved in securing membership for Ukraine so from that perspective it might be considered a "free win," but I wonder if Putin is going to regard checks on NATO expansion purely as a face-saving exercise, or if he's going to actively push for a peace agreement preventing "Western influence" from reaching Ukraine, for which read "foreign security guarantees and treaties that might prevent Russia from trying again in the future." I feel like the end of this war and the exact way it's going to end is so far right now and so unknown that discussing it necessarily borders on clancychat. Putin has driven himself so far into a corner with his ridiculous demands, his ridiculous predictions of the war's results and his apparent need for face-saving, while the Ukrainians rightly regard Putin as completely untrustworthy in every way, and so I don't know where or how any kind of negotiation would begin and end. What kind of event, or events, could force Putin to the negotiation table, actually in good faith? Sure the Russian army might eventually disintegrate or something, but that might take years and the topic is massively speculative. Or maybe Putin will die or be overthrown or something? Maybe, but clancychat. 
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Dec 4, 2022 19:19
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jaete posted:I feel like the end of this war and the exact way it's going to end is so far right now and so unknown that discussing it necessarily borders on clancychat. Putin has driven himself so far into a corner with his ridiculous demands, his ridiculous predictions of the war's results and his apparent need for face-saving, while the Ukrainians rightly regard Putin as completely untrustworthy in every way, and so I don't know where or how any kind of negotiation would begin and end. Well, the only reason I bring it up is because Macron was calling for peace agreements respecting Russia's fear of "NATO expansion." It seemed worthwhile to discuss whether or not such concessions would be acceptable for Ukraine - it seems, as I argue, that they would only be acceptable if they don't preclude other forms of security guarantees for Ukraine, as Putin might potentially try to make them do.
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Dec 4, 2022 19:25
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Discussing things immediately in the news cycle is fine, and these discussions have always taken precedence over the content-specific thread guidance, within reason. In other words, if you’re keen on hashing out something about the possible end of war scenarios, moments like this, when
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Dec 4, 2022 19:44
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Discussing things immediately in the news cycle is fine, and these discussions have always taken precedence over the content-specific thread guidance, within reason. In other words, if you’re keen on hashing out something about the possible end of war scenarios, moments like this, when I think way too much is being read into his statements. From the Reuters translation: quote:"This means that one of the essential points we must address - as President Putin has always said - is the fear that NATO comes right up to its doors, and the deployment of weapons that could threaten Russia," Macron said. This is a really vague, and to my mind, obviously correct statement. Russian leadership no longer being publicly upset and worried about 'threat' and providing 'guarantees' (note the vague wording) is an essential point to address. He is not saying guarantees are to be used to entice Russia back to the table, nor that Russia deserves guarantees about this or that or even that NATO expansion should stop. He says that *fear* of NATO must be addressed. That can be anything from a "Russia must accept NATO isn't a threat" to "we'll agree to not place certain weapons in certain places". That a French president says "we'd like to eventually co-exist peacefully with Russia" shouldn't be a surprise to anyone, and I'm baffled that so many people are reading all kinds of weird intent into this interview (which was given to a French TV station). This isn't Macron standing at a press conference and laying out the grand scheme of future European security. It's just yet another reiteration that France wants to co-exist peacefully with Russia, and want to bury the hatchet and fears of the hatchet, for good. Even Ukrainian government officials are saying something very similar - just that it has to come after a regime change. Macron is absolutely not proclaiming plans for Ukrainian neutrality, cessation of inviting new nations into NATO or anything like that. And for some reason that's how a lot of people have decided to interpret a really typical, and very vague, statement about the wish for peaceful co-existence. I wish major media outlets would be more responsible in their headlines and click-bait paraphrasing of politicians. Nitpicking what 'guarantees' might mean, translated and taken out of context, shows that there really is a lack of discussion-worthy topics currently. The war is horrible and looks to go on for quite some time yet in equally horrible fashion. That's depressing and sad. I'm happy for the summaries in this thread, because there are news and analysis of relevance and import. I really don't think this tiny snippet of an interview with Macron has much merit as a topic - it just boosted way out of proportion. That's not an appeal to shut down discussion of that topic - it's just my usually incredibly long-winded way of saying something - and in this case: this isn't news and way too much is being read into this.
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Dec 4, 2022 20:04
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Willo567 posted:https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1599111452329013248 Jupiter is right op (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Fuligin posted:Jupiter is right op I for one applaud Russia's restraint on only freaking out like this after eons of NATO border with the Baltic states. That must have been very stressful.
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