2023 NFL Draft Thread

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SKULL.GIF: Jan 20, 2017

Gonz posted:

I cannot fathom the Lions trading up for Anthony Richardson.

There is no current universe in which Brad Holmes does that.

Yeah that alone has me writing off the mock entirely. Goff had a very good season and will be only 29 years old. There's no reason at all for the Lions to vastly overpay and trade up to massively reach for an ultraraw prospect.

They're in a good spot, they can be patient and wait for their perfect fit.

# ? Jan 25, 2023 01:18

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# ? Jun 11, 2024 03:15

ShakeZula: Jun 17, 2003; Nobody move and nobody gets hurt.

If the Colts trade up for anybody it would be either Stroud or Levis, not Young. Ballard is all about traits, no way he gives up his precious draft capital for a QB with Young's body type.

# ? Jan 25, 2023 01:24

MJeff: Jun 2, 2011; THE LIAR

Is...the Commanders drafting Richardson really that much of a danger to the Lions' apparently pressing need to get him, or is Brad Holmes just mercilessly addicted to in-division trading now and he needs another hit of that good poo poo?

I'm just trying to figure out the story, here.

Like, if Holmes thinks Richardson is the guy and that they can develop him, I can talk myself into him at 18, but trading up three spots for him seems so...unnesecary.

# ? Jan 25, 2023 01:34

Danny LaFever: Dec 29, 2008; Grimey Drawer

Lions podcast at athletic was defending the trade up as not far-fetched and I just can't imagine giving up potentially two starters (18 and 48) to have a QB sit on the bench for a year. When your defence is bottom-rung.

That just doesn't feel good.

I'm not sure I like a CB at 6 either, but i'm not gonna lose sleep over it.

# ? Jan 25, 2023 01:57

MJeff: Jun 2, 2011; THE LIAR

I'm mostly seeing mocks say the Lions go CB at 6, but, Witherspoon.

# ? Jan 25, 2023 02:03

Gonz: Dec 22, 2009; "Jesus, did I say that? Or just think it? Was I talking? Did they hear me?"

Witherspoon would be a drat steal at 18, since he�s pretty much in the top 2 or 3 in every defensive/DB metric in the nation last season, but I doubt the Lions are gonna draft another corner in the top 10.

Especially when they need interior D-line help so much.

# ? Jan 25, 2023 02:13

Doltos: Dec 28, 2005; 🤌🤌🤌

CBs are hard to peg before the combine. I think right now it's Gonzalez - Witherspoon - Cam Smith all solidly mixed for the #1 talk and then JPJ/Ringo/Branch/Forbes/Ricks/Williams/Jones on the edges. Solid class throughout, lots of big guys and variety of man/zone. Kind of like Cam the best at the moment. Had to do a lot with nothing around him. Constantly asked to blanket #1s and looked way more athletic than them all.

Either way I'm afraid because most of the WRs sucked this year and I'm not sure how well any of these guys were tested.

# ? Jan 25, 2023 02:27

A Buffer Gay Dude: Oct 25, 2020

EmbryoSteve posted:

If stroud is at 5 and the hawks don't take him then just... uh.. Jesus christ

This mfer said Hawks lol

# ? Jan 25, 2023 03:14

A Buffer Gay Dude: Oct 25, 2020

Anyway the Seahawks do NOT need another Jesus freak weirdo as QB.

# ? Jan 25, 2023 03:18

Acebuckeye13: Nov 2, 2010; Against All Tyrants; Ultra Carp

Danny LaFever posted:

Lions podcast at athletic was defending the trade up as not far-fetched and I just can't imagine giving up potentially two starters (18 and 48) to have a QB sit on the bench for a year. When your defence is bottom-rung.

That just doesn't feel good.

I'm not sure I like a CB at 6 either, but i'm not gonna lose sleep over it.

Yeah, I understood the reasoning behind the argument (The team is clearly scouting Richardson, he's got immense physical tools, Holmes has a track record of trading up to get the player he wants), but I think it would be a gargantuan mistake. I'm not opposed to taking a QB, as my feelings on Goff are well-known, but the defense is in such a dire situation that they need a ton of talent and depth to turn that unit around. And while Richardson has all the physical ability in the world from what I've heard, I'm not sure the Lions really have the staff or capability to develop that ability into a functional QB�since while they did help Goff turn his career around, he was already a developed QB and just needed to rebuild his confidence/be placed into a system that maximized his abilities. If he falls into our lap, sure, I guess, but trading up (especially the one proposed in that mock) is... boy, I don't like it.

# ? Jan 25, 2023 04:29

SKULL.GIF: Jan 20, 2017

I think the Lions should wait. I'm not at all sold on this year's QB class (much less this year's draft class as a whole) and the Lions have way bigger needs. Goff is good enough for the moment.

The biggest thing the Lions need more than anything is to build a culture of winning, and trying to take a home-run swing on a QB when you don't have the pieces around him doesn't lead to that -- even if the QB is actually decent. Look at Arizona with Murray. Hell, look at the Stafford Lions.

# ? Jan 25, 2023 05:13

Henchman of Santa: Aug 21, 2010

SKULL.GIF posted:

I think the Lions should wait. I'm not at all sold on this year's QB class (much less this year's draft class as a whole) and the Lions have way bigger needs. Goff is good enough for the moment.

The biggest thing the Lions need more than anything is to build a culture of winning, and trying to take a home-run swing on a QB when you don't have the pieces around him doesn't lead to that -- even if the QB is actually decent. Look at Arizona with Murray. Hell, look at the Stafford Lions.

I agree with you but I do think the Lions actually have one of the best situations for a young QB to come into. If the season had continued on its trajectory at 1-6 or even if they just finished with like, 5 wins, I would've welcomed the top prospects--rarely do top QB picks get to join a team with a good offensive line and a safety valve as good as St. Brown! But Richardson is way too much of a project.

# ? Jan 25, 2023 05:23

YOLOsubmarine: Oct 19, 2004; When asked which Pokemon he evolved into, Kamara pauses.

"Motherfucking, what's that big dragon shit? That orange motherfucker. Charizard."

SKULL.GIF posted:

I think the Lions should wait. I'm not at all sold on this year's QB class (much less this year's draft class as a whole) and the Lions have way bigger needs. Goff is good enough for the moment.

The biggest thing the Lions need more than anything is to build a culture of winning, and trying to take a home-run swing on a QB when you don't have the pieces around him doesn't lead to that -- even if the QB is actually decent. Look at Arizona with Murray. Hell, look at the Stafford Lions.

The main thing that helps build a �culture of winning� is winning and having a top tier QB helps a lot with winning. The Bengals didn�t exactly have a �culture of winning� until they drafted a QB and started winning a bunch. Ditto the Bills. Or the Saints getting Brees in FA.

For the most part teams that are consistently good are consistently good because they have a really good quarterback. If you�re really good at drafting and development you can still be consistently competitive but that gets harder when your draft picks are coming at the end of the first instead of the beginning and you actually have players you want to sign to second contracts.

# ? Jan 25, 2023 05:29

tinstaach: Aug 3, 2010; MAGNetic AttITUDE

It's still very enticing, given that:

- the Lions have zero investment in the QB position beyond Goff
- Brad Holmes has found more starting-caliber talent outside of the first two rounds in two drafts than some organizations have in a decade
- this is the most draft capital they're gonna have for a while, especially if they are going to shed the Same Old Lions tag and be as good as people think

They have picks #49 and #56 in the second round, if they ended up with Richardson at one of those spots and a DT, a corner, and another defender with 6, 18, and the other 2nd, I wouldn't complain.

# ? Jan 25, 2023 05:41

Sataere: Jul 20, 2005; Step 1: Start fight
Step 2: Attack straw man
Step 3: REPEAT

Do not engage with me

ShakeZula posted:

If the Colts trade up for anybody it would be either Stroud or Levis, not Young. Ballard is all about traits, no way he gives up his precious draft capital for a QB with Young's body type.

Levis just screams Colts to me.

# ? Jan 25, 2023 07:42

Ornery and Hornery: Oct 22, 2020

SKULL.GIF posted:

I think the Lions should wait. I'm not at all sold on this year's QB class (much less this year's draft class as a whole) and the Lions have way bigger needs. Goff is good enough for the moment.

The biggest thing the Lions need more than anything is to build a culture of winning, and trying to take a home-run swing on a QB when you don't have the pieces around him doesn't lead to that -- even if the QB is actually decent. Look at Arizona with Murray. Hell, look at the Stafford Lions.

If you�re not sold on this draft class generally then you should be more willing to trade picks in it.

Goff may be good enough for the moment, but that�s the point. Goff can play one more year and Richardson gets to develop before taking over.

I think Richardson is more likely to bust than not, but he has huge upside and Goff isn�t the long term answer. Further, I think if Detroit does want to grab Richardson then it seems likely that they will have to hop over the commanders.

The lions aren�t a perfect roster but they are a good team with good coaching. They aren�t going to be near the top of the draft again for a long time. If they do want a top qb next year they will probably have to trade 3 first round picks (and then some) to go get that prospect. Would you prefer that big of a trade or doing a modest trade this year for Richardson?

In my opinion.

# ? Jan 25, 2023 08:51

Gonz: Dec 22, 2009; "Jesus, did I say that? Or just think it? Was I talking? Did they hear me?"

Can Goff build off his incredible 2022 second half and continue playing like that into 2023? Hard to tell. But even with his inconsistencies over the first half of the season, the Lions finished with a top 5 offense regardless.

I would like to have a QB who can fling the ball 50 yards without even trying, into the waiting arms of Jameson Williams, who has several feet of separation between himself and whomever is covering him. Goff probably isn�t ever gonna be that guy.

But as other have said, the Lions defense was the worst in the league this past year, despite their improvement in the last ten games. They have so many needs on defense. If they had a 15th-20th ranked defense in 2022, they might�ve won 11 or 12 games. That�s how close they were in a lot of instances in which the defense just got gassed and poo poo the bed when all they needed was a minor stop or two to hold on for a win. When they lost to Seattle early in the season, Seattle didn�t punt once, and that�s why they won. If the Lions win that shootout and force a singular Seattle punt, the Lions have the 6 seed and the Giants have the 7 seed after Week 17.

Drafting a QB who isn�t a sure thing (ala how Andrew Luck or Joe Burrow were overwhelmingly considered) and could potentially be a bust, it wouldn�t exactly put them in a position where they could take advantage of the fact that the Vikings and Packers have questionable rosters. With 1-2 more good drafts and some good Holmes signings in free agency, the potential exists for them to win the division NOW. Or at least compete for the division NOW.

With a seemingly okay (but not spectacular) Goff, and an improved defense, and a lot of rookies and 3rd year players taking the next step in their development, they can win NOW. But the big question mark in all of this is �Does Goff turn back into Post-Super Bowl Shook Goff or does he have another great year?�.

I trust Holmes and MuscleCoach to make the right choices, though. Their last two drafts have been phenominal. It�s the first time in my whole life the Lions have a front office that doesn�t consist of a recording of Yakety Sax on a perpetual loop.

# ? Jan 25, 2023 09:39

BlindSite: Feb 8, 2009

FizFashizzle posted:

CJ Stroud for a swap, 3rd and a future first seems....appropriate?

Would be a dream scenario so long as we have an OC who can use him right but even trading with Seattle just makes sense.

# ? Jan 25, 2023 09:57

John McClane: Nov 14, 2011

maybe you trade up for richardson if you think he's some kind of Super Taysom

# ? Jan 25, 2023 10:17

Diva Cupcake: Aug 15, 2005

https://twitter.com/MelKiperESPN/status/1618240736264355840

quote:

1. Chicago Bears
Jalen Carter, DT, Georgia

I thought long and hard about a trade here, with the Colts, Raiders and Panthers as the top candidates to move up for a quarterback. And if I'm Chicago general manager Ryan Poles and I can move down a few spots, add premium picks and still get my choice of the best defensive prospects, I'd make a deal. It takes two teams to make a trade, however, and that's never a guarantee. For now, let's stick with the Bears keeping this pick.

Chicago's roster needs help from top to bottom, but its defense was particularly dreadful in 2022, ranking last in the league in sacks (20) and points allowed per game (27.2). It has to be D all the way for wherever the Bears make their selection. Carter, an explosive interior pass-rusher and run-stuffer, gets the nod over Alabama edge rusher Will Anderson Jr. on my Big Board. He's the best player in this draft, a Day 1 starter in the middle of this defense.

2. Houston Texans
C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State

Houston just fired coach Lovie Smith, and the franchise's clear offseason priority has to be upgrading at the quarterback position. Davis Mills really struggled in his second season as the Texans' offense was among the league's worst in several statistical categories. With two top-12 picks in this draft, they have to get quality starters as they continue their rebuild.

I see Stroud as the best fit here as the Texans could get their pick of the top passers. He's extremely accurate, can make every throw and has excellent touch at every level of the field. I usually don't put much stock into a single game evaluation, but Stroud's performance in the narrow loss to Georgia in the College Football Playoff semifinals showed me something. He was spectacular against an elite defense, carving up the Bulldogs with his arm and using his legs to maneuver the pocket and find receivers. Houston still has several needs, but it should start with Stroud. I have Stroud just barely behind Will Levis (Kentucky) and Bryce Young (Alabama) in my rankings, but it's going to be a close race through April.

3. Arizona Cardinals
Will Anderson Jr., DE/OLB, Alabama

New Arizona general manager Monti Ossenfort gets a premium pick to try to improve this roster, and he could luck into a Pro Bowl edge rusher right off the bat. Anderson was a tackle-for-loss machine in college -- he had 54 over the past two seasons -- and dominated offensive tackles in both the run and pass game. He was unblockable at times against SEC competition. For the Cardinals, who are losing the retired J.J. Watt, he could play some outside linebacker and move around the defense to create mismatches. This would be a home run pick for Ossenfort & Co.

4. Indianapolis Colts
Bryce Young, QB, Alabama

The trades for Carson Wentz and Matt Ryan in back-to-back offseasons didn't work out for general manager Chris Ballard, and now the Colts are starting over -- again -- at quarterback. Don't they have to draft a signal-caller here (if they don't trade up to get their preferred guy)? They have some intriguing talent on their roster, but as we've seen time and time in the NFL, nothing else matters if they don't have their quarterback.

There's a clear gap after the top three passers in this class, and the Colts don't necessarily have to trade up to get one of them. In this scenario, they could take Young, a quick processor with an elite feel for the pocket and how to move around and locate his target. The 2021 Heisman Trophy winner doesn't have a big frame, which some NFL scouts will downgrade him for because there aren't many starting quarterbacks under 200 pounds. I love his tape, though, and I'd be willing to bet on his talent. Spread out the offense and watch him throw darts to Michael Pittman Jr. and Alec Pierce.

5. Seattle Seahawks (via DEN)
Will Levis, QB, Kentucky

Here we go, the third quarterback in the top five picks. Levis is going to be polarizing for the next few months. Turn on his tape, and you're going to see some poor interceptions and questionable decisions. But you're also going to see rockets that should have been caught and tight-window throws that no other passer in this class can make. There will be a general manager in the top 10 who sees Levis' positives over the negatives. He also is ahead of the curve in learning a pro-style offense, because that's what he played in for the Wildcats.

For the Seahawks, do they really think Geno Smith is their long-term answer? If so, they're going to have to pay him before he hits free agency in March. If they franchise tag him, though, they could play him in 2023 as the bridge to Levis, who can take over after some seasoning as the backup. If Seattle gives Smith a big deal, it surely would be happy with Will Anderson Jr. or Jalen Carter here to help a defense that allowed 4.9 yards per carry, which ranked 27th in the league. Along with this pick from Denver that came in the Russell Wilson deal, it also has No. 20 overall to get help on that side of the ball.

6. Detroit Lions (via LAR)
Tyree Wilson, DE, Texas Tech

The Lions finished the season with eight wins in their final 10 games, but their explosive offense papered over massive holes on the other side of the ball. They ranked last in the league in yards per play allowed (6.2) and opposing QBR (55.9); they had issues defending the run and the pass. Wilson, the top true defensive end in this class, would help both. He can use his burst at the snap to beat offensive tackles on passing downs or use his 6-foot-6 frame to hold up against the run. An edge-rushing duo of Wilson and Aidan Hutchinson would be formidable, with surprise rookie James Houston working in on obvious passing downs.

Plus, if Detroit plays its cards right, it could use the No. 18 pick on a cornerback -- this is a little too high to take one. And if you're curious about the quarterback position, general manager Brad Holmes likely will take a close look at this class and weigh each passer against veteran Jared Goff, who had a stellar second half of the season. (This pick is from the Matthew Stafford swap with the Rams.) In this scenario, though, the top three are off the board.

7. Las Vegas Raiders
Peter Skoronski, OT, Northwestern

The Raiders are a team to watch for a trade up for a quarterback, but they also might prefer a veteran -- Tom Brady? -- over a rookie to take over for Derek Carr in 2023. This is a veteran roster that could compete in the AFC West with the right guy under center. That guy also needs help along the offensive line, though; only left tackle Kolton Miller's starting spot should be guaranteed going forward. Skoronski, who started 33 games at left tackle for the Wildcats, could move to guard or right tackle at the next level. He allowed just one sack in 2022. He'd be an instant starter for a new-look offense.

8. Atlanta Falcons
Myles Murphy, DE, Clemson

The Falcons had just 21 sacks this season, which ranked 31st in the league, and they were led by Grady Jarrett's six. Veteran edge rusher Lorenzo Carter added four, while rookie second-round pick Arnold Ebiketie had 2.5. No other player had more than two. They have to get better along the front seven. That could start here with Murphy, a complete defender who had 17.5 sacks in three seasons at Clemson. He could even kick inside to tackle on passing downs.

Atlanta is another team with questions at quarterback, as rookie third-rounder Desmond Ridder flashed at times at the end of the season. He's not a lock to be the Week 1 starter, though I expect the organization to do deep evaluations on this draft class and bring in another player to compete with him. For now, however, Murphy is too good to pass up.

9. Carolina Panthers
Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida

Let's get this out of the way now: I wouldn't play Richardson in Year 1. He needs time to develop. He's not an NFL-ready thrower. But he is an awesome talent, a raw quarterback in a 6-foot-4 frame who would be one of the league's most electrifying runners as soon as he steps on the field. His size and physical tools cannot be taught, and NFL coaches will want to work with him and try to take him to the next level. Richardson completed just 53.8% of his passes in 2022 -- he has a long ways to go with his mechanics. Again, though, he has a high ceiling if a coaching staff can help him get there.

In this scenario, the rebuilding Panthers would need to sign a bridge quarterback -- how about bringing back impending free agent Sam Darnold? -- so that Richardson can sit on the sidelines and soak in everything. Carolina still needs a head coach, but it also has extra second-, third- and fifth-round picks from the Christian McCaffrey trade to try to improve this roster.

10. Philadelphia Eagles (via NO)
Calijah Kancey, DT, Pitt

The Eagles, one of the NFL's four best teams, gained this first-rounder from New Orleans last year, and now they have a chance to add a premium prospect to their loaded roster. They don't have many current needs, but they do have several decisions to make in free agency, including whether to bring back defensive linemen Fletcher Cox, Robert Quinn, Brandon Graham and Javon Hargrave. Let's use this pick to help them get younger.

Kancey's 2022 tape is extremely impressive, and I moved him way up my Big Board. He wreaked havoc the past two seasons, racking up 13.5 sacks when lined up as a defensive tackle, the most in the country. At 6-foot, 280 pounds, he's undersized, but so was former Pitt tackle Aaron Donald. (To be clear, he's not Donald, but he's still pretty good.) We know Philadelphia general manager Howie Roseman invests heavily in the D-line, and Kancey would fit next to 2022 first-rounder Jordan Davis.

11. Tennessee Titans
Paris Johnson Jr., OT, Ohio State

The Tennessee offense was a mess this season, which resulted in the firing of coordinator Todd Downing. General manager Jon Robinson also was let go, and you have to think Robinson's inability to get the offensive line up to par contributed to it. Longtime left tackle Taylor Lewan has played just 20 games over the past three seasons and could be an offseason cap casualty. There might be an opening on the left side. Johnson played guard for the Buckeyes in 2021 but moved to left tackle in 2022, and he was tremendous. He will be a plug-and-play starter in the top 15 picks.

12. Houston Texans (via CLE)
Lukas Van Ness, DL, Iowa

I gave the Texans their quarterback of the future with the No. 2 pick, and general manager Nick Caserio should go with the best prospect on his board with this selection, which was acquired in the Deshaun Watson trade. Don't get picky and try to plug a hole -- this roster has to improve in several spots. Van Ness is a versatile and productive defender who made an impact at end and tackle for the Hawkeyes, even as he never actually started a game. He had 13.5 sacks over the past two seasons, 9.5 from the interior and four from the edge. NFL teams covet that sort of positional flexibility. He would get lots of early snaps for Houston.

13. New York Jets
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State

I thought about an offensive lineman here, but let's instead reunite my top-ranked receiver in this class with my top-ranked receiver in the 2022 class. The Jets picked Garrett Wilson at No. 10 last April, and he had 83 catches for 1,103 yards as a rookie. But for the Buckeyes in 2021, it was his teammate Smith-Njigba who was their top wideout, as he put up 1,606 yards, doing damage mostly out of the slot. After an injury-plagued 2022 in which he caught just five passes, however, there are big questions about his health -- he had a nagging hamstring injury -- headed into the draft.

I'm a big fan of Smith-Njigba, and I think he could be a star in the right situation. New York likely will have a new starting quarterback in 2023, and that passer will have to get support around him. This offense has a chance to be much improved. The Jets had a stellar draft last year; Smith-Njigba would be a great start for this one. And yes, I know, this makes back-to-back top-15 picks on receivers for the Jets, but Smith-Njigba is worth it because of what he and Wilson can do together.

14. New England Patriots
Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois

Will the Patriots bring back free-agent corner Jonathan Jones? That could determine what Bill Belichick & Co. do here, because this is a strong cornerback class in the back half of Round 1. There could be a run on defensive backs in the 20s. Witherspoon is my top-ranked corner, a long and physical player who shut down an entire side of the field for the Fighting Illini. He also is not afraid to stick his head in and make a tackle.

Outside of corner, New England could target offensive line or wide receiver with this pick to try to support quarterback Mac Jones, who struggled in Year 2.

15. Green Bay Packers
Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame

Why not a tight end here -- regardless of whether Aaron Rodgers is back as the quarterback? Robert Tonyan and Marcedes Lewis are free agents, and this is a major hole on the roster. The tight end class is really good this year, with Mayer atop my board. He is a complete player who put up 809 yards and 67 catches with nine touchdowns in 2022. He can stretch the middle of the field and run past linebackers on seam routes. The only downside is that he doesn't have super-long arms, but he's ahead of the game as a pass-catcher. Green Bay could also use younger talent in the front seven.

16. Washington Commanders
Broderick Jones, OT, Georgia

Here's yet another team with quarterback issues, as the Commanders traded for Carson Wentz last offseason (which cost them their third-rounder this year) but turned back to Taylor Heinicke down the stretch. Neither is likely to be their Week 1 starter; I wonder if they will be players in the veteran-signal-caller market and bring in someone to compete with rookie Sam Howell. No matter who is playing quarterback, though, they have to improve along the offensive line. Jones is a 310-pound mauler who didn't allow a single sack as the Bulldogs' left tackle in 2022. I wouldn't be shocked if he went in the top 10.

17. Pittsburgh Steelers
Joey Porter Jr., CB, Penn State

Like father, like son in Pittsburgh? The Steelers drafted linebacker Joey Porter in the third round in 1999, and they have a need for his son in 2023. Porter is an aggressive 6-foot-2 corner who was a three-year starter for the Nittany Lions. He picked off just one pass in his career, but he had 11 pass breakups in 2022, so he gets his hands on the football when it's headed in his direction. The Steelers likely will be hoping one of the top offensive tackles drops to them, and they could also target a defensive tackle.

18. Detroit Lions
Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon

Remember when I mentioned earlier that the Lions have cornerback issues? Well, hopefully at least Lions fans were reading. Jeff Okudah flashed the talent that made him the No. 3 overall pick in 2020, but he was still inconsistent, and there's no surefire starter on the other side of the field. Gonzalez was a lockdown defender at Colorado before transferring to Oregon last year, where he picked off four passes and improved every week. He's going to test really well at the combine in March too. This pick makes too much sense for a Detroit defense that badly needs an infusion of young talent in the secondary.

19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Keion White, DL, Georgia Tech

The Bucs could be in for an offseason of change, depending on what the NFL's greatest quarterback decides. We already know they'll have a new-look offense with coordinator Byron Leftwich getting fired. And even with concerns along the offensive line, I'm looking at the end spot in Todd Bowles' 3-4 defense as their top need with Akiem Hicks and William Gholston both hitting the free agent market. Yes, 2022 second-rounder Logan Hall will get snaps on one side next season, but if they can add a starter here, why not do it?

White dominated at Old Dominion before he transferred to Georgia Tech in 2021. He missed most of that season with an ankle injury but had a dominant 2022, with 7.5 sacks and 57 total tackles. He's another inside-outside lineman who would bring some interior pass-rush ability to Tampa. White will be at the Senior Bowl in Mobile, Alabama, next week, and I know scouts are excited to see him up close.

20. Seattle Seahawks
Byron Young, DE/LB, Tennessee

We're back with another Seattle pick here after I projected general manager John Schneider to take a quarterback at No. 5. Let's focus on the defense. The Seahawks struggled against the run this season, and we know coach Pete Carroll loves toolsy edge defenders. L.J. Collier didn't work out in Round 1 in 2019, but Darrell Taylor, a Round 2 pick in 2020, is coming off a breakout 9.5-sack season. Bruce Irvin made his way back to the team in 2022 too.

Young, another prospect who will be at the Senior Bowl, is intriguing. At 6-3, 245 pounds, he fits the mold of what Carroll wants from a front-seven defender, and he has some pass-rush upside. He had seven sacks and 13.5 total tackles for loss in 2022, showing off advanced moves. The Seahawks knocked their 2022 class out of the park, and a home run in 2023 could set them up for another long run of success.

21. Los Angeles Chargers
Tuli Tuipulotu, DT, USC

Here's what I wrote in my first mock draft of last year's cycle: "The Chargers again struggled against the run in 2021, an issue that has plagued them for years. Just go back to their 2018 divisional round playoff game against the Patriots, when they were dominated up front. They allowed 4.8 yards per carry this season, which ranked 28th in the NFL."

How are we back here again? L.A. allowed an even worse 5.4 yards per carry this season, which ranked last in the league. It also allowed 5.9 yards per play, which ranked 29th. This is a massive issue. General manager Tom Telesco has taken offensive linemen in the first round in back-to-back drafts, so this could be where he targets a big guy on defense. Tuipulotu played mostly on the edge for the Trojans and racked up 13.5 sacks last season, 8.5 of which came when he was lined up at end. At 290 pounds, though, he fits in L.A.'s 3-4 scheme as a big end who can help in the run game and take some pressure off Joey Bosa.

22. Baltimore Ravens
Quinton Johnston, WR, TCU

Offensive coordinator Greg Roman is out, and quarterback Lamar Jackson's future with the team is uncertain after he and the team haven't been able to agree to a new contract. Coach John Harbaugh isn't used to this sort of chaos. Still, I think Jackson will be back -- potentially on the franchise tag -- in which case he needs someone to catch passes. Baltimore still hasn't gotten its receiving corps right; it ranked last in the league in receiving yards by wideouts (1,517). Rashod Bateman, a first-rounder in 2021 who has struggled with injuries, has just three touchdowns in 18 career games.

Johnston could help the Ravens stretch the field. He averaged 17.8 yards per catch for the Horned Frogs this season. At 6-4, he's still developing as a route runner, and he's a physical mismatch once he gets his body into defensive backs and leaps for the ball. Jackson could use Johnston's length in the red zone.

23. Minnesota Vikings
Emmanuel Forbes, CB, Mississippi State

Veteran Patrick Peterson was the Vikings' top corner this season, but he's a free agent, and even if the team brings him back, it should start thinking about the future in the secondary. Safety Lewis Cine, Minnesota's first-rounder last April, played just two defensive snaps before breaking his leg and missing the rest of the season. He should make a full recovery, but can the Vikings improve on the outside too? Whoever takes over for fired coordinator Ed Donatell needs options. Forbes was an interception magnet for the Bulldogs; he had 14 over three seasons, including six in 2022. He gave up a few big plays, but he has tremendous potential as a cover corner.

24. Jacksonville Jaguars
Deonte Banks, CB, Maryland

How about those Jaguars? After an AFC South title in 2022, shouldn't they be the early favorites to win it again? General manager Trent Baalke did a nice job filling holes last offseason, but the pass rush still was mediocre, the off-ball linebackers struggled badly in coverage and there's an open corner spot opposite Tyson Campbell. With a strong cornerback class in this draft, Baalke & Co. could target Banks, a man-coverage defender with exceptional physical tools. He could rise as we get closer to the draft once NFL teams see him test at the combine. And yes, this makes five cornerbacks off the board in Round 1.

Another position to keep an eye on for Jacksonville is tight end, where Evan Engram is a free agent. Luke Musgrave (Oregon State) and Dalton Kincaid (Utah) could be options.

25. New York Giants
Jordan Addison, WR, USC

Here's another team that took a big jump in 2022, as quarterback Daniel Jones took care of the football and the defense played just well enough to keep the Giants in games. Jones' breakout came with one of the least impressive wide receiver corps in the league, especially as Kenny Golladay has not lived up to his massive free agent contract. Can general manager Joe Schoen get Jones -- a free agent who is likely to return -- a No. 1 wideout?

Addison put up huge numbers at Pitt in 2021 before dealing with some injuries at USC, and he has the versatility to play outside or in the slot. He just knows how to get open. New York also will get back rookie second-rounder Wan'Dale Robinson, who flashed before tearing an ACL. I like what the Giants are building, but they have to give Jones some help.

26. Dallas Cowboys
Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas

This just makes sense, right? Team owner Jerry Jones loves star running backs, going back to his days of drafting Emmitt Smith in Round 1 in 1990, and he repeatedly has said Ezekiel Elliott is the Cowboys' most important player. Well, Elliott could be a salary-cap casualty this offseason, and Tony Pollard -- who made the Pro Bowl this season -- broke his left leg in the divisional round and is a free agent. Could Jones and the Cowboys start over and take Robinson, the best back in this class, here? Robinson also is a great pass-catcher, so he's more than just a between-the-tackles runner. He could also take some of the pressure off quarterback Dak Prescott.

I thought hard about defensive tackle with this pick, with Bryan Bresee (Clemson) and Mazi Smith (Michigan) as two possibilities. Dallas struggled at times stopping the run.

27. Buffalo Bills
Derick Hall, DE/OLB, Auburn

The Bills have one of the league's best rosters, but they could lose a few defenders in free agency, including Jordan Poyer, Tremaine Edmunds and Shaq Lawson. They need to restock in this draft. And even though Buffalo has used first- or second-round picks on Greg Rousseau, Boogie Basham and AJ Epenesa in the past three drafts, its depth on the edge has to get better. That's why I see Hall, who had 15.5 sacks over the past two seasons, as a stellar fit on Day 1. He could turn into a steal here.

On the other side of the ball, I almost went with offensive tackle Cody Mauch (North Dakota State), who could play guard early in his career before becoming the team's long-term left tackle. Guard O'Cyrus Torrence (Florida) could be another option.

Reminder: These last four picks are based on projections from ESPN's Football Power Index, so please take all complaints elsewhere.

28. Cincinnati Bengals
Dalton Kincaid, TE, Utah

Hayden Hurst had a decent bounce-back season after signing in Cincinnati, but he's hitting the free agent market again this offseason. The Bengals need to find a long-term tight end target for quarterback Joe Burrow. Even with Hurst, the offense ranked 29th in receiving yards by tight ends (556). Adding a big red-zone target is a way for it to level up.

Both Kincaid and Luke Musgrave (Oregon State) have a chance to be Round 1 picks, and I wouldn't be surprised if a few teams preferred one of them over Michael Mayer (Notre Dame) as the top-ranked tight end in this class. Kincaid had 16 touchdowns over the past two seasons, while Musgrave was in line for a breakout before he suffered a knee injury in October that prematurely ended his season. Kincaid has more speed, but Musgrave's size (6-6, 250 pounds) and upside intrigues NFL scouts. Cincinnati would upgrade with either player here.

29. Denver Broncos (via MIA/SF)
Isaiah Foskey, DE/OLB, Notre Dame

Denver traded away prime picks to get quarterback Russell Wilson last offseason, and it got back this one after dealing Bradley Chubb to the Dolphins before the deadline at midseason. Suddenly, when you look at this depth chart, there's no Chubb or Von Miller exploding off the edge, even though defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero did a great job with what he had this season. Because it's a little too late in Round 1 to find a surefire offensive line starter, I like what Foskey would bring to the Broncos. He had 22 sacks and five forced fumbles over the past two seasons, and at 265 pounds, he could play in a 3-4 or 4-3 scheme at the next level.

30. Philadelphia Eagles
Brian Branch, S, Alabama

Philadelphia made a preseason trade to acquire safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson, but he had such a great season that he might be too expensive for the Eagles to bring back. In that case, this pick is the best like-for-like replacement -- Branch can play as a slot corner or a deep center fielder, filling Gardner-Johnson's shoes. Branch is my top-ranked safety, but he'll be a cornerback on some teams' boards. I projected the Eagles to add a defensive tackle with the No. 10 pick, and injecting this defense with young talent should be their offseason priority.

31. Kansas City Chiefs
Zay Flowers, WR, Boston College

Kansas City redid its wide receiver corps last offseason, but it might have to do another overhaul in 2023. JuJu Smith-Schuster, who had a resurgent season, and Mecole Hardman are both free agents. Could they supplement what they have with this pick? I'm a huge fan of Flowers, who caught 200 passes in his college career. He's polished and shifty, shaking cornerbacks from all over the field to get open.

I almost went with speedster Jalin Hyatt (Tennessee), who is a better deep threat, but Flowers is more ready to contribute early. Hyatt had 15 touchdowns and averaged 18.9 yards per catch for the Volunteers in 2022.

# ? Jan 25, 2023 14:51

SKULL.GIF: Jan 20, 2017

I like Mayer a lot for the Packers at 15, it's both a fit and a need. I wouldn't be against Kincaid or Washington in the 2nd though, if we take Quinton Johnston instead.

BTW, ignore any mocks that have the Packers taking Jordan Addison. He's so far outside the size requirements the Packers have been sticking to for years now.

# ? Jan 25, 2023 16:55

Ornery and Hornery: Oct 22, 2020

Sataere posted:

Levis just screams Colts to me.

Correct, op

# ? Jan 25, 2023 17:13

Codependent Poster: Oct 20, 2003

Yeah I don't see the Colts taking Young. I think it's either Stroud or Levis.

They'll probably take a swing at Levis and if he doesn't work out, go in the tank and all in for Arch Manning.

# ? Jan 25, 2023 17:24

Ornery and Hornery: Oct 22, 2020

SKULL.GIF posted:

I like Mayer a lot for the Packers at 15, it's both a fit and a need. I wouldn't be against Kincaid or Washington in the 2nd though, if we take Quinton Johnston instead.

BTW, ignore any mocks that have the Packers taking Jordan Addison. He's so far outside the size requirements the Packers have been sticking to for years now.

Earlier in this thread, I scouted Hyatt and noted he was smol and fast.

Somehow Addison is even more smol.

# ? Jan 25, 2023 17:26

Soul Glo: Aug 27, 2003; Just let it shine through

Extremely into the Titans drafting LT and then Hyatt

# ? Jan 25, 2023 17:39

forkboy84: Jun 13, 2012; Corgis love bread. And Puro

I just do not see this year's QB class containing 4 top 10 players.

# ? Jan 25, 2023 18:25

Ornery and Hornery: Oct 22, 2020

Get classes!!!! Rekt

(You�re probably right but Stroud will be flawless)

# ? Jan 25, 2023 20:12

BlindSite: Feb 8, 2009

I still highly doubt the panthers take a look at Richardson and think he's their guy. I know someone is going to fall in love with his measurables but after the recent issues with Qb I just don't see it.

All of this is kind of for poo poo anyway until Jimmy G, Carr, Geno, Brady and Rodgers situations become a lot more clear. I could easily see a situation where Jimmy or Carr goes to the Colts, Geno re-signs for 3 years in Seattle and we have a very different looking top 10.

# ? Jan 25, 2023 22:01

Forrest on Fire: Nov 23, 2012

BlindSite posted:

I still highly doubt the panthers take a look at Richardson and think he's their guy. I know someone is going to fall in love with his measurables but after the recent issues with Qb I just don't see it.

All of this is kind of for poo poo anyway until Jimmy G, Carr, Geno, Brady and Rodgers situations become a lot more clear. I could easily see a situation where Jimmy or Carr goes to the Colts, Geno re-signs for 3 years in Seattle and we have a very different looking top 10.

There's no way the Panthers draft a project. They have been burned frequently and Richardson is a humongous risk.

I'd love the Cardinals to take the pass rusher. I suspect a trade.

# ? Jan 25, 2023 22:20

ShakeZula: Jun 17, 2003; Nobody move and nobody gets hurt.

BlindSite posted:

I still highly doubt the panthers take a look at Richardson and think he's their guy. I know someone is going to fall in love with his measurables but after the recent issues with Qb I just don't see it.

All of this is kind of for poo poo anyway until Jimmy G, Carr, Geno, Brady and Rodgers situations become a lot more clear. I could easily see a situation where Jimmy or Carr goes to the Colts, Geno re-signs for 3 years in Seattle and we have a very different looking top 10.

Colts will be paying Matt Ryan a minimum of $17mil this year whether he's on the team or not, I don't see them dipping into the top of the FA QB class. They'll draft someone for sure and maybe pick up a journeyman vet to be the backup.

# ? Jan 25, 2023 22:24

BlindSite: Feb 8, 2009

ShakeZula posted:

Colts will be paying Matt Ryan a minimum of $17mil this year whether he's on the team or not, I don't see them dipping into the top of the FA QB class. They'll draft someone for sure and maybe pick up a journeyman vet to be the backup.

You're probably right. It wouldn't surprise me either way, but a lot of it will hinge on what they do in the coaching staff. I get that mock drafts are just content but this time a year ago we were looking at Malik Willis as potentially a top 10 pick in a lot of mock drafts and he ended up as a third rounder. I still think the top three QBs remain the same and I'd still bet the house they go in the top 15 but the landscape will change so much closer to the draft. Even someone like the Jets trading for Rodgers changes things in terms of trade possibilities etc.

Again it's all just speculation but there are a couple guys whos contracts are up who could hit the market and a couple more who could be trade candidates/.

ShakeZula posted:

Colts will be paying Matt Ryan a minimum of $17mil this year whether he's on the team or not, I don't see them dipping into the top of the FA QB class. They'll draft someone for sure and maybe pick up a journeyman vet to be the backup.

Yeah, even a cut costs them 18 mill, only a trade would save them 12/11 million depending on which way they go and while I can't discount someone taking him on I don't see it happening. Unless someone in crazy cap shape like the Bears does something like Ryan and a 3rd for a 7th just for them to dump salary like the Browns (I think IIRC) did with Osweiler. Colts aren't in too terrible of a situation cap wise anyway and GMs get pretty creative kicking the can down the road.

I dunno - its interesting is all. I know its very unlikely most of this happens but just a glance at the QBs in the league who could land a starting gig we could see

Lamar
Jimmy
Carr
Brady
Rodgers / Love
Lance
Tua
Geno

All end up not on the same team they started this year. I think it's likely, Lamar, Tua, Geno, Lance, Rodgers, Love all end up right where they are now, but the market could swing pretty dramatically and it'll be fun to see it unfold.

# ? Jan 25, 2023 22:58

Sataere: Jul 20, 2005; Step 1: Start fight
Step 2: Attack straw man
Step 3: REPEAT

Do not engage with me

BlindSite posted:

You're probably right. It wouldn't surprise me either way, but a lot of it will hinge on what they do in the coaching staff. I get that mock drafts are just content but this time a year ago we were looking at Malik Willis as potentially a top 10 pick in a lot of mock drafts and he ended up as a third rounder. I still think the top three QBs remain the same and I'd still bet the house they go in the top 15 but the landscape will change so much closer to the draft. Even someone like the Jets trading for Rodgers changes things in terms of trade possibilities etc.

Again it's all just speculation but there are a couple guys whos contracts are up who could hit the market and a couple more who could be trade candidates/.

I think comparing last year to this year is a mistake for quarterbacks. While Malik Willis was talked about, everyone in mocks basically said the only reason they were putting those quarterbacks in the first was because they assumed teams would be stupid about quarterbacks.

quote:

Yeah, even a cut costs them 18 mill, only a trade would save them 12/11 million depending on which way they go and while I can't discount someone taking him on I don't see it happening. Unless someone in crazy cap shape like the Bears does something like Ryan and a 3rd for a 7th just for them to dump salary like the Browns (I think IIRC) did with Osweiler. Colts aren't in too terrible of a situation cap wise anyway and GMs get pretty creative kicking the can down the road.

I dunno - its interesting is all. I know its very unlikely most of this happens but just a glance at the QBs in the league who could land a starting gig we could see

Lamar
Jimmy
Carr
Brady
Rodgers / Love
Lance
Tua
Geno

All end up not on the same team they started this year. I think it's likely, Lamar, Tua, Geno, Lance, Rodgers, Love all end up right where they are now, but the market could swing pretty dramatically and it'll be fun to see it unfold.

Lamar, Lance, Geno, and Tua will all stay on the same team. Baltimore is almost assuredly going to exclusively franchise tag him. Tua and Lance are still on rookie contracts. There's no real value to moving them. I think Seattle already said they're signing Geno.

One of Rodgers/Love will be gone. If it is Rodgers, Love stays with the Pack as the starter. If it is Love that is traded, I don't think it precludes the team that traded for him from drafting someone.

Really, it is Jimmy G, Carr, and Brady that will impact how the market will bear out.

Even with all that, the following teams could be looking at quarterback upgrades.

Houston
Indy
Seattle
Las Vegas
Detroit
New Orleans
Tampa Bay
Carolina
New York Jets

Honestly, Tennesse, Washington, Atlanta, Giants, Rams, and New England wouldn't surprise me either.

Basically, there are more teams that need upgrades at quarterback than quarterbacks are available. I think last years class being so bad only increases the urgency for a lot of teams this year.

# ? Jan 25, 2023 23:26

ShakeZula: Jun 17, 2003; Nobody move and nobody gets hurt.

Yeah the Colts aren't in bad shape cap-wise even with the Ryan contract, but I think it's fair to say that Ballard's days of being able to hoard all of his money in FA and rely on Day 3 picks to plug roster holes without Irsay knocking on his door are pretty much over, so having $40mil tied up in a non-superstar QB room is probably untenable.

# ? Jan 25, 2023 23:35

BlindSite: Feb 8, 2009

Sataere posted:

I think comparing last year to this year is a mistake for quarterbacks. While Malik Willis was talked about, everyone in mocks basically said the only reason they were putting those quarterbacks in the first was because they assumed teams would be stupid about quarterbacks.

Lamar, Lance, Geno, and Tua will all stay on the same team. Baltimore is almost assuredly going to exclusively franchise tag him. Tua and Lance are still on rookie contracts. There's no real value to moving them. I think Seattle already said they're signing Geno.

One of Rodgers/Love will be gone. If it is Rodgers, Love stays with the Pack as the starter. If it is Love that is traded, I don't think it precludes the team that traded for him from drafting someone.

Really, it is Jimmy G, Carr, and Brady that will impact how the market will bear out.

Even with all that, the following teams could be looking at quarterback upgrades.

Houston
Indy
Seattle
Las Vegas
Detroit
New Orleans
Tampa Bay
Carolina
New York Jets

Honestly, Tennesse, Washington, Atlanta, Giants, Rams, and New England wouldn't surprise me either.

Basically, there are more teams that need upgrades at quarterback than quarterbacks are available. I think last years class being so bad only increases the urgency for a lot of teams this year.

I think it might also take some teams out of the market though. I think if you have a known quantity like Geno or Goff at this point you might be better off sticking rather than changing horses mid regime and hoping you hit the next superstar. I think if Muscle coach or Carrol were fired or retired they might be on the list, but as much as poo poo talent coming through makes some teams more desperate it undoubtedly would make some more conservative.

# ? Jan 25, 2023 23:38

infraboy: Aug 15, 2002; Phungshwei!!!!!!1123

Just off my intuition but i�m not super sold on Stroud and Bryce being that good in the NFL. Two typical college teams that are used to steamrolling most teams with their top 4 and 5 star recruits. The NFL is just a different game altogether.

# ? Jan 25, 2023 23:44

YOLOsubmarine: Oct 19, 2004; When asked which Pokemon he evolved into, Kamara pauses.

"Motherfucking, what's that big dragon shit? That orange motherfucker. Charizard."

infraboy posted:

Just off my intuition but i�m not super sold on Stroud and Bryce being that good in the NFL. Two typical college teams that are used to steamrolling most teams with their top 4 and 5 star recruits. The NFL is just a different game altogether.

I think everybody knows the NFL is a different game altogether which is why Stetson Bennett isn�t getting hyped as a first rounder. Some of the things Stroud and Young do well translate very well to the NFL.

# ? Jan 26, 2023 00:15

BlindSite: Feb 8, 2009

Stroud and Young also come from the same programs that produced 3 current starters who similarly beat the gently caress out of their college competition.

Theyre also arguably better prospects than any of those 3 coming out.

# ? Jan 26, 2023 00:18

Diva Cupcake: Aug 15, 2005

I love Stroud but the receiving corps he�s had with Wilson, Olave, and Smith-Njigba rivals the Burrow LSU crew. Marvin Harrison Jr. too. Jesus.

I�m sure better scouts than me can discern how much is them versus the talent around them.

# ? Jan 26, 2023 00:35

TheGreyGhost: Feb 14, 2012; �Go win the Heimlich Trophy!�

infraboy posted:

Just off my intuition but i�m not super sold on Stroud and Bryce being that good in the NFL. Two typical college teams that are used to steamrolling most teams with their top 4 and 5 star recruits. The NFL is just a different game altogether.

Buddy, the easiest way to look smart in a draft thread is to be ruthlessly cynical about every quarterback prospect. That said:

- Stroud routinely hits windows where it wouldn�t matter if he�s throwing to Olave/Wilson/JSN or like Taylor Gabriel man. You can question if he�s going to make the pre-snap read, hold a ball too long, or if his tendency to run backwards will cause him to throw off his back foot, but the dude out throws on tape that only like Lawrence did as a prospect in terms of placement. His arm is very very good. If he had the raw power of like Lock or Levis we would be talking about him as the clearest #1 possible.

- Young just feels like a �what it� guy the more I watch him. He�s going to create some ludicrous highlights, but I just cannot fathom having to spend 15 years worrying about a quarterback who is smaller than my slot corner. This is an admittedly dumb hill to die on, but I just cannot believe a guy who is Nick Saban�s height is making it 10 years, even if they�re probably going to be very fun.

Ornery and Hornery posted:

Earlier in this thread, I scouted Hyatt and noted he was smol and fast.

Somehow Addison is even more smol.

Great class if you want a slot receiver!

Putting QJ on the ravens in that mock is a war crime because I fundamentally don�t believe he�s workable as a first rounder right now without a guy scheming him open consistently. He�s good, but to steal a Doltos line from last thread, don�t overpay for Golden Tate.

# ? Jan 26, 2023 00:42

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# ? Jun 11, 2024 03:15

Doltos: Dec 28, 2005; 🤌🤌🤌

Yea but I was totally wrong about Olave the guy looks awesome in the league.

# ? Jan 26, 2023 00:55

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