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Uglycat
Dec 4, 2000
MORE INDISPUTABLE PROOF I AM BAD AT POSTING
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Hey guys, just popping in to ask if trump has cleared all his legal hurdles and completely gotten away with everything fully exonerated to be remembered throughout history as stable and bigly and compared favorably to cincinattus yet

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Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




“Serial Loser” seem to be the taking point about him today.

V-Men
Aug 15, 2001

Don't it make your dick bust concrete to be in the same room with two noble, selfless public servants.
I'm just glad some more Oath Keepers got convicted of seditious conspiracy and i'm... cautiously optimistic that the Proud Boys case will end the same way

Goatse James Bond
Mar 28, 2010

If you see me posting please remind me that I have Charlie Work in the reports forum to do instead

Uglycat posted:

Hey guys, just popping in to ask if trump has cleared all his legal hurdles and completely gotten away with everything fully exonerated to be remembered throughout history as stable and bigly and compared favorably to cincinattus yet

uglycat, you're a forums treasure, but please settle down

VitalSigns
Sep 3, 2011

Bar Ran Dun posted:

It’s useful rhetorically for certain groups that there to be no progress or consequences.

It’s practically useful to certain groups that folks who want to see consequences are dissatisfied and discouraged ideally to the point of not voting.
I don't think anyone in here wants Trump to face no consequences. Seems like everyone agrees that he ought to be in jail at least, and the disagreement is over how likely it is that institutions that exist to protect and privilege guys like Trump will dole out a meaningful punishment in this case.

Oracle
Oct 9, 2004

VitalSigns posted:

I don't think anyone in here wants Trump to face no consequences. Seems like everyone agrees that he ought to be in jail at least, and the disagreement is over how likely it is that institutions that exist to protect and privilege guys like Trump will dole out a meaningful punishment in this case.

The most reason for hope is that the establishment never considered Trump one of them and only tolerated him because he won and they could ride his coattails. Unfortunately he was not controllable and the lunatics took over. Now that he’s stopped winning it feels like his fall into irrelevance is inevitable. Whether that results in prison time before his Elvisesque death is up to chance.

Judge Schnoopy
Nov 2, 2005

dont even TRY it, pal

Oracle posted:

The most reason for hope is that the establishment never considered Trump one of them and only tolerated him because he won and they could ride his coattails. Unfortunately he was not controllable and the lunatics took over. Now that he’s stopped winning it feels like his fall into irrelevance is inevitable. Whether that results in prison time before his Elvisesque death is up to chance.

This supposes that if he didn't stop winning the lunatics would have won.

That's why consequences are important. Show the world what it means to take a run at the US government and fall short. And make it loving hurt so these assholes don't feel like taking another shot.

selec
Sep 6, 2003

Oracle posted:

The most reason for hope is that the establishment never considered Trump one of them and only tolerated him because he won and they could ride his coattails. Unfortunately he was not controllable and the lunatics took over. Now that he’s stopped winning it feels like his fall into irrelevance is inevitable. Whether that results in prison time before his Elvisesque death is up to chance.

It’s really not up to chance. You’re not an outsider if they give you a network TV show and you succeed like crazy with it, and then you become president. There are no good rich people, which means Trump is in fact, “one of them”. He is petulant about doing the things they expect of a guy in that position, but it doesn’t change his essentially untouchable class position. They’re not gonna throw a rich guy into jail, and they’re absolutely not gonna throw a former president into jail. We are not that kind of country, we invade or dominate that kind of country: we see truly, functional equal justice as a third-world characteristic, at best.

He’s gonna die fat and happy in bed. Losing his foundation is like losing a really advantageous contract for him, it sucks, but it’s not like a deep, personality-defining thing for him. That was one more thing the lawyers set up for him for money reasons, one more structure he’s only kinda familiar with but occupies, I’m reckoning, the same mental space as a tax break. A privilege he feels he’s owed but not one that makes or breaks his idea of himself.

Inner Light
Jan 2, 2020



selec posted:

It’s really not up to chance. You’re not an outsider if they give you a network TV show and you succeed like crazy with it, and then you become president. There are no good rich people, which means Trump is in fact, “one of them”. He is petulant about doing the things they expect of a guy in that position, but it doesn’t change his essentially untouchable class position. They’re not gonna throw a rich guy into jail, and they’re absolutely not gonna throw a former president into jail. We are not that kind of country, we invade or dominate that kind of country: we see truly, functional equal justice as a third-world characteristic, at best.

He’s gonna die fat and happy in bed. Losing his foundation is like losing a really advantageous contract for him, it sucks, but it’s not like a deep, personality-defining thing for him. That was one more thing the lawyers set up for him for money reasons, one more structure he’s only kinda familiar with but occupies, I’m reckoning, the same mental space as a tax break. A privilege he feels he’s owed but not one that makes or breaks his idea of himself.

Nice well rounded take, this mirrors my understanding pretty well also. I don’t know how the near future we can reasonably foresee is substantially different than what you have described.

Captain_Maclaine
Sep 30, 2001

Every moment that I'm alive, I pray for death!

selec posted:

It’s really not up to chance. You’re not an outsider if they give you a network TV show and you succeed like crazy with it, and then you become president. There are no good rich people, which means Trump is in fact, “one of them”. He is petulant about doing the things they expect of a guy in that position, but it doesn’t change his essentially untouchable class position. They’re not gonna throw a rich guy into jail, and they’re absolutely not gonna throw a former president into jail. We are not that kind of country, we invade or dominate that kind of country: we see truly, functional equal justice as a third-world characteristic, at best.

He’s gonna die fat and happy in bed. Losing his foundation is like losing a really advantageous contract for him, it sucks, but it’s not like a deep, personality-defining thing for him. That was one more thing the lawyers set up for him for money reasons, one more structure he’s only kinda familiar with but occupies, I’m reckoning, the same mental space as a tax break. A privilege he feels he’s owed but not one that makes or breaks his idea of himself.

The one very minor exception I'm going to take to this is chiefly the opening sentence of your second paragraph. I fundamentally don't think Trump is a happy person anymore. Whatever magic he experienced during the 2016 campaign has long since drained away and it's become undeniably clear he'll never, ever get over losing in 2020. Trump will likely escape serious legal consequence, both criminal and civil, but the thinnest of silver linings may at least be the fact that he hasn't enjoyed a moment of life since leaving office, and likely never will again.

BiggerBoat
Sep 26, 2007

Don't you tell me my business again.
Donald Trump is not going to jail.

GlyphGryph
Jun 23, 2013

Down came the glitches and burned us in ditches and we slept after eating our dead.
Are there any plans for any kind of systemic reform at all, at this point? I know legislatively things were stymied, but I'm not sure if there are other levels things could be/are happening at.

slurm
Jul 28, 2022

by Hand Knit

Judge Schnoopy posted:

This supposes that if he didn't stop winning the lunatics would have won.

That's why consequences are important. Show the world what it means to take a run at the US government and fall short. And make it loving hurt so these assholes don't feel like taking another shot.

The CSA took a hell of a better run at the government and the entire response was about amiable reconciliation by force if necessary. The North fought a total war to make the traitors be their friends again instead of trying to wipe them out.

-Blackadder-
Jan 2, 2007

Game....Blouses.
So ironically, we're not the only ones discussing our hopes that Trump goes away, while having no idea how that's going to actually happen.

https://twitter.com/brianklaas/status/1620092704595263488

quote:

Press them hard enough, and most Republican officials—even the ones with MAGA hats in their closets and Mar-a-Lago selfies in their Twitter avatar—will privately admit that Donald Trump has become a problem. He’s presided over three abysmal election cycles since he took office, he is more unstable than ever, and yet he returned to the campaign trail this past weekend, declaring that he is “angry” and determined to win the GOP presidential nomination again in 2024. Aside from his most blinkered loyalists, virtually everyone in the party agrees: It’s time to move on from Trump.

But ask them how they plan to do that, and the discussion quickly veers into the realm of hopeful hypotheticals. Maybe he’ll get indicted and his legal problems will overwhelm him. Maybe he’ll flame out early in the primaries, or just get bored with politics and wander away. Maybe the situation will resolve itself naturally: He’s old, after all—how many years can he have left?

This magical thinking pervaded my recent conversations with more than a dozen current and former elected GOP officials and party strategists. Faced with the prospect of another election cycle dominated by Trump and uncertain that he can actually be beaten in the primaries, many Republicans are quietly rooting for something to happen that will make him go away. And they would strongly prefer not to make it happen themselves.

“There is a desire for deus ex machina,” said one GOP consultant, who, like others I interviewed, requested anonymity to characterize private conversations taking place inside the party. “It’s like 2016 all over again, only more fatalistic.”

The scenarios Republicans find themselves fantasizing about range from the far-fetched to the morbid. In his recent book Thank You for Your Servitude, my colleague Mark Leibovich quoted a former Republican representative who bluntly summarized his party’s plan for dealing with Trump: “We’re just waiting for him to die.” As it turns out, this is not an uncommon sentiment. In my conversations with Republicans, I heard repeatedly that the least disruptive path to getting rid of Trump, grim as it sounds, might be to wait for his expiration.
....

Truly America's favorite president.

Angry_Ed
Mar 30, 2010




Grimey Drawer

-Blackadder- posted:

So ironically, we're not the only ones discussing our hopes that Trump goes away, while having no idea how that's going to actually happen.

https://twitter.com/brianklaas/status/1620092704595263488

Truly America's favorite president.

I feel like the Republicans are just lying to themselves. They had an easy out. Impeach and remove Trump, completely disown him. But since they're cowards they didn't and now they're stuck with him.

Murgos
Oct 21, 2010

Angry_Ed posted:

I feel like the Republicans are just lying to themselves. They had an easy out. Impeach and remove Trump, completely disown him. But since they're cowards they didn't and now they're stuck with him.

Trump has all the money. He leveraged the Republican money machine to funnel all the money into his coffers.

So, if you want to run you have to go beg The Don for a piece and he’s going to give you a story about how if he helps you then you have to help him.

They are all into him for it and that’s all it is.

If he had been removed via impeachment his grip on the Republican Parties money may have gotten even stronger as his base solidified around him even further.

The “he’s actually a loser” rhetoric is probably the most effective way to make him disappear because that has a chance to get through to all the people who send him their social security checks to get an 8x match bonus. Americans don’t like losers.

Dr. Faustus
Feb 18, 2001

Grimey Drawer
Everyone remember Michael Cohen going to prison for paying hush-money to Stormy Daniels for Trump? And Trump was the sole beneficiary of this crime (Cohen paid Daniels and was reimbursed with campaign finance money which is not legal).
Last year two prosecutors quit over the case being shut down against "Individual-1."

As of today a new Grand Jury has been empaneled to look at Individual-1 in this campaign finance crime.

Individual-1 is Donald Trump. This is another investigation Bill Barr successfully quashed for awhile, appearing to come roaring back to life.

Sharkie
Feb 4, 2013

by Fluffdaddy

Dr. Faustus posted:

Individual-1 is Donald Trump. This is another investigation Bill Barr successfully quashed for awhile, appearing to come roaring back to life.

This lion has a better chance of roaring back to life.

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




A lot of federal prosecutions are slow even against normal people with no connections.

Judge Schnoopy
Nov 2, 2005

dont even TRY it, pal

Bar Ran Dun posted:

A lot of federal prosecutions are slow even against normal people with no connections.

They seem to be rolling along at a regular clip for Jan 6 organizers and participants. I've actually been somewhat impressed with the rate of "normal people with no connections" cases making it through and not getting tied up, stalled out on juries, or delayed to hell with lawyer nonsense.

There's one person this doesn't seem to apply to though, and to my recollection none of his federal cases have been heard in court yet.

RoboChrist 9000
Dec 14, 2006

Mater Dolorosa
Most prosecutions are not made against people who represent an existential threat against the Republic every single moment they are alive and free.
I mean, yeah, I get what you're saying and I mean even if I were not a doomer in this matter I would not expect them to accelerate matters because our government is at best a ponderous thing, but still. It's hard to be calmed by "oh, that's just standard operating procedure" when the situation in question is something so beyond the realm of normality that, well, yeah.

If there has ever been or ever will be an expedited prosecution, I would think 'the prosecution of a man who attempted to and continues to attempt to topple the government of the nation through violence and install himself as dictator for life' would be the one.

Dr. Faustus
Feb 18, 2001

Grimey Drawer
In the Cohen case they tried to present an affidavit that was forty pages long. Nineteen of those pages referenced Donald Trump and Bill Barr had those nineteen pages redacted and only twenty-one pages made it into the final information. Those pages were about Cohen. Barr tried very hard to bury this and I thought it was a fait accompli until this new GJ was set up.
Re-opening this part of the investigation is really encouraging.

Weisselberg is expected to testify and he'll be easy to find since he's sitting in Riker's Island, right?

Murgos
Oct 21, 2010
The “why even have laws or processes? Just snatch people off the street when you’ve got some authority” people seem to be missing the point of why we don’t want Trump running things.

RoboChrist 9000
Dec 14, 2006

Mater Dolorosa
If only there was some sort of middle ground between 'snatch people up off the street' and 'do not charge a man who led a violent insurrection against the government with any meaningful crimes for over two years.' Alas!

I'd also say I'm pretty comfortable with snatching off the street people who have spent years on camera cheerleading violent fascist uprisings, yeah. Like we're not talking about someone accused of a crime. We're talking about someone who continues to commit the crime of which they are accused in broad daylight every single time they are able. Has there been a single - and I am genuinely asking, this is not rhetorical - public appearance Trump made in 2022 where he did not push election denialist claims?

EDIT: Like if someone is running around snatching wallets or stabbing people, do you incarcerate them? Or do you wait until they are convicted?
You have a man running around committing crimes constantly and in public view and on social media and in front of cameras so it is objectively documented.

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




Investigations in general are just extremely slow. Even basic things not criminal things, just like claims that might subrogate can take months to years. The folks that do them have way fewer than most people think and they take much much longer.

Getting information out of some business one is actively trying to investigate, like basic poo poo, that’s holding up them getting significant amounts of money they’ll take months on.

MrMojok
Jan 28, 2011

RoboChrist 9000 posted:

Has there been a single - and I am genuinely asking, this is not rhetorical - public appearance Trump made in 2022 where he did not push election denialist claims?

I don’t think there’s been a single once since about September 2020, two months before the election

Including peoples’ funerals he’s stumbled into at MAL, and Diamond’s funeral

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




Judge Schnoopy posted:

They seem to be rolling along at a regular clip for Jan 6 organizers and participants. I've actually been somewhat impressed with the rate of "normal people with no connections" cases making it through and not getting tied up, stalled out on juries, or delayed to hell with lawyer nonsense.

There's one person this doesn't seem to apply to though, and to my recollection none of his federal cases have been heard in court yet.

Well the easy ones are easy. Yep you took pictures of yourself in the capital and posted them on social media.

Think of an investigation like a report. It’s got a list of information / parts of the report one needs to collect before it can be finalized. That list comes from the law and party the investigation needs to satisfy (be the underwriter, lawyer, prosecutor, whatever).

Sometimes everything is just right there and it’s really easy.

Other times it’s not and takes a tremendous amount of effort.

GlyphGryph
Jun 23, 2013

Down came the glitches and burned us in ditches and we slept after eating our dead.

Murgos posted:

The “why even have laws or processes? Just snatch people off the street when you’ve got some authority” people seem to be missing the point of why we don’t want Trump running things.

What on earth are you talking about?

Killer robot
Sep 6, 2010

I was having the most wonderful dream. I think you were in it!
Pillbug

Bar Ran Dun posted:

Investigations in general are just extremely slow. Even basic things not criminal things, just like claims that might subrogate can take months to years. The folks that do them have way fewer than most people think and they take much much longer.

Getting information out of some business one is actively trying to investigate, like basic poo poo, that’s holding up them getting significant amounts of money they’ll take months on.

Also relevant is that by far the slowest investigations are against people like organized crime bosses who have layers of deniability, deep pockets to defend themselves, good will with their communities, and ways to influence judges and juries. That by no means requires prosecutors to like them, be soft on them, or want to make sure they don't face accountability. It's that the bar for "slam dunk case" is that much higher.

GlyphGryph
Jun 23, 2013

Down came the glitches and burned us in ditches and we slept after eating our dead.

Killer robot posted:

Also relevant is that by far the slowest investigations are against people like organized crime bosses who have layers of deniability, deep pockets to defend themselves, good will with their communities, and ways to influence judges and juries. That by no means requires prosecutors to like them, be soft on them, or want to make sure they don't face accountability. It's that the bar for "slam dunk case" is that much higher.

And you really think that's what's happening here?

(Also, most of the major federal investigations against organized crime bosses that I can find took around 2 years from start of investigation to conviction, with the longest period of time I can find between the start of the investigation and the indictment of the major players being around 3 years.)

RoboChrist 9000
Dec 14, 2006

Mater Dolorosa

Killer robot posted:

Also relevant is that by far the slowest investigations are against people like organized crime bosses who have layers of deniability, deep pockets to defend themselves, good will with their communities, and ways to influence judges and juries. That by no means requires prosecutors to like them, be soft on them, or want to make sure they don't face accountability. It's that the bar for "slam dunk case" is that much higher.

Most organized crime bosses do not maintain multiple MyCrimes.txt at every level of their organization, do not actively engage in crimes in front of the cameras, and do not confess to crimes without prompting or questioning.

Donald Trump is not a criminal mastermind and his organization was not and is not an efficiently run criminal empire operating in the shadows. It's a clownshow that operates largely in the open because, as stated, it is a clownshow.

Killer robot
Sep 6, 2010

I was having the most wonderful dream. I think you were in it!
Pillbug

GlyphGryph posted:

And you really think that's what's happening here?

(Also, most of the major federal investigations against organized crime bosses that I can find took around 2 years from start of investigation to conviction, with the longest period of time I can find between the start of the investigation and the indictment of the major players being around 3 years.)

Absolutely nothing has happened so far that's inconsistent with the theory, even if that in itself doesn't prove anything. And I shouldn't have to explain that there is a significant difference scale between this and the head of some regular NYC Mafia boss. Of course going after a former president is a big deal, and all the more when you need to make sure your judge and jury contain absolutely zero people who are ride or die enough with him to screw your case, and that it's far too clear for the presently disengaged part of the public to buy the hardcore Trumpist lines that it's all made up. An acquittal, a mistrial, or a conviction with room for error or appeal is bad for any high profile case, but absolutely nothing like it would be here. It's hardly surprising that anyone considering prosecuting Trump would weigh that against the visceral satisfaction of getting him gitmoed ASAP. I haven't seen much in the way of solid argument why they're wrong, especially with how election denial seems to be working for Republicans now.

nine-gear crow
Aug 10, 2013

Angry_Ed posted:

I feel like the Republicans are just lying to themselves. They had an easy out. Impeach and remove Trump, completely disown him. But since they're cowards they didn't and now they're stuck with him.

Turns out a good way to sidestep the "you'd better not miss" part of the phrase "when you come at the king, you'd better not miss" is to simply just never come at the king :v:

V-Men
Aug 15, 2001

Don't it make your dick bust concrete to be in the same room with two noble, selfless public servants.

RoboChrist 9000 posted:

Most organized crime bosses do not maintain multiple MyCrimes.txt at every level of their organization, do not actively engage in crimes in front of the cameras, and do not confess to crimes without prompting or questioning.

Donald Trump is not a criminal mastermind and his organization was not and is not an efficiently run criminal empire operating in the shadows. It's a clownshow that operates largely in the open because, as stated, it is a clownshow.

You're completely right and while Trump isn't a criminal mastermind, he knows enough about litigation and liability to always leave enough wriggle room to get out. If he was dumber, he would have told Comey to drop the Flynn investigation, but he never did. He asked Comey if he could see himself to letting it go with the understanding between the 2 as clear as day. When he was talking to Zelensky, when military equipment was brought up, Trump said, "yeah about that I wanted to ask about a Crowdstrike server".

So the biggest problem with indicting him is shutting off that wriggle room, which is extremely difficult unless you're so deep in Trump's inner circle you've probably married into the family.

Even a lot of the information the Jan 6 committee has uncovered about his personal beliefs in the outcome of the election isn't extremely concrete enough to indicate that he KNEW he had lost. Sympathetic jurists could easily interpret a statement like "can you believe I lost to this guy" to be understood as "I don't think it's possible I lost to a guy like this".

RoboChrist 9000
Dec 14, 2006

Mater Dolorosa
Even if he truly believed he had won the election, he would have broken the law by inciting an insurrection. Like the legal system does not, to my knowledge, grant exceptions for crimes committed in response to other crimes. If Trump was correct and the election was stolen from him, then it would not change the fact he broke the law. The only thing Trump's understanding of who won in 2020 changes is what, exactly, laws he broke, not whether or not he broke the law.

Failed Imagineer
Sep 22, 2018

nine-gear crow posted:

Turns out a good way to sidestep the "you'd better not miss" part of the phrase "when you come at the king, you'd better not miss" is to simply just never come at the king :v:

When you miss the king, you'd better not cum

Sharkie
Feb 4, 2013

by Fluffdaddy
The only thing that's coming for Trump is a roaring lion of justice, he just needs a minute, he's gonna roar any second now. Just a little bit longer and he'll roar and then we'll see what kind of mess Trump is in!


(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

Sharkie fucked around with this message at 13:20 on Jan 31, 2023

bird food bathtub
Aug 9, 2003

College Slice
Meanwhile for the other 99% of society if a cop is pissed because he didn't get laid last night you can end up behind bars for months waiting trial while you lose your job, house, car and more I can't even think of before you get a coin flip at being told "Oh yeah you didn't actually do anything whoopsie-doodle you'll be free to find your own way back across state when the paper work clears."

So to see Trump doing the criming live on internationally broadcast TV in his own words and get the Emerald Group Platinum+ Tier treatment might just piss some people off a teensy bit.

Dapper_Swindler
Feb 14, 2012

Im glad my instant dislike in you has been validated again and again.

-Blackadder- posted:

So ironically, we're not the only ones discussing our hopes that Trump goes away, while having no idea how that's going to actually happen.

https://twitter.com/brianklaas/status/1620092704595263488

Truly America's favorite president.

i mean whats funny is their biggest hope is that gop primary 2016/pa primary gubitonorial 2022 doesnt happen again but it will. desantis either wont run Or runs and both trump and him race each other to the right and desantis eats poo poo on the debate stage over and over because he has a glass jaw and got it busted by charlie loving crist. the never winner rat king will never drop out and will eat up alot of other votes allow trump to get pluralities.

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slurm
Jul 28, 2022

by Hand Knit
When Kennedy stepped out of line they shot him down like a dog in the street.

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