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IOwnCalculus
Apr 2, 2003





Motronic posted:

But as to the definition I suspect is being used:

Yup.

The area I live, maybe 30 years ago, was exactly the kind of place where you could buy an acre or two and plop a mobile home on it at a "reasonable" expense, with direct access to roads, utilities, and probably about an hour from PHX at the time. There are still quite a few homes around here that were clearly set up this way.

20 years ago it switched from mobile homes to stick-built as the far end of "drive 'til you qualify".

Last month someone paid $4M cash for a giant-rear end mansion across the street.

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Dik Hz
Feb 22, 2004

Fun with Science

Calling Minneapolis a remote wasteland is kinda melodramatic.

How about International Falls? International is right there in the name.

Arsenic Lupin
Apr 12, 2012

This particularly rapid💨 unintelligible 😖patter💁 isn't generally heard🧏‍♂️, and if it is🤔, it doesn't matter💁.


I wonder if the housing market is going to slide down as all the Boomers die off. Is there enough pent-up demand to offset the loss of the generational bulge in homebuying?

Cyrano4747
Sep 25, 2006

Yes, I know I'm old, get off my fucking lawn so I can yell at these clouds.

Arsenic Lupin posted:

I wonder if the housing market is going to slide down as all the Boomers die off. Is there enough pent-up demand to offset the loss of the generational bulge in homebuying?

Random googling turns up an article from 2019 crowing about how that was the year that millennials outnumbered baby boomers.

And that's just millenials.

So no, not really. The boomers dying isn't going to do much, because the US is still growing. If we had a shrinking population it might do something, but we don't

skipdogg
Nov 29, 2004
Resident SRT-4 Expert

Hadlock posted:

Still looking for that right piece of property. It's somewhere between 1.7 and 3.5 acres, within 45 minutes of an international airport, at least 30% of it reasonably flat. Good land near major population centers is not cheap, especially without weird encumbered restrictions

This is doable in the middle parts of the country. Kansas City International has tons of land around in a 45 minute drive. Oklahoma City, Austin, San Antonio, Charlotte. Are you going to find it where you probably want to live? Probably not.

Dik Hz
Feb 22, 2004

Fun with Science

When I’m chanterelle hunting on my country estate, I think myself fortunate that I prefer to live in places that others consider less desirable.

I’d never be so gauche as to consider my tastes universal though.

Duck and Cover
Apr 6, 2007

Thom Yorke raps posted:

100 year old houses rule, they've stood the test of time. Much prefer them over 10 year old houses that were built cheap and fast and won't last 30 years.

My house is 130 years old and the plaster walls muffle sound great, it's all stone and brick on the exterior, and it's got a bunch of original wood details that you can't find anymore. Though, I am paying a bunch to get the knob and tube wiring replaced

Plaster can eat wifi singles (well the metal used). Insulation can be spotty. Old windows suck. Lead paint/abestos.

Furious Lobster
Jun 17, 2006

Soiled Meat

A Proper Uppercut posted:

Conventional 30 year loan with no points?

Yep.

Residency Evil
Jul 28, 2003

4/5 godo... Schumi
The last page is like the recruitment post cards I get in the mail:

International Airport!
Top Ranked College Football Team 1 hour away!
Voted Top 10 up-and-coming food city!
Close to the coast!

spwrozek
Sep 4, 2006

Sail when it's windy

Residency Evil posted:

The last page is like the recruitment post cards I get in the mail:

International Airport!
Top Ranked College Football Team 1 hour away!
Voted Top 10 up-and-coming food city!
Close to the coast!

Lol, are you in my LinkedIn DMs???

A Proper Uppercut
Sep 30, 2008


Okay, so what's with the discrepancy between mortgage trackers and the rates I'm seeing? They say they're updated daily. I guess I just need to talk to my mortgage broker.

Furious Lobster
Jun 17, 2006

Soiled Meat

A Proper Uppercut posted:

Okay, so what's with the discrepancy between mortgage trackers and the rates I'm seeing? They say they're updated daily. I guess I just need to talk to my mortgage broker.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯ . No idea from my end, just providing my own anecdotal experience.

KYOON GRIFFEY JR
Apr 12, 2010



Runner-up, TRP Sack Race 2021/22

Residency Evil posted:

The last page is like the recruitment post cards I get in the mail:

International Airport!
Top Ranked College Football Team 1 hour away!
Voted Top 10 up-and-coming food city!
Close to the coast!

welcome 2 fayettenam

Hadlock
Nov 9, 2004

ouch

El Mero Mero
Oct 13, 2001

Arsenic Lupin posted:

I wonder if the housing market is going to slide down as all the Boomers die off. Is there enough pent-up demand to offset the loss of the generational bulge in homebuying?

The demand conditions we are currently living in are bad in a way that are kinda hard to fathom:

  • 50 years of anemic building rates, including a massive drop in production during the recession that we never climbed out of.

  • no new major urban areas being created

  • a culture where a single family house per generation is the norm (rather than living in multigenerational housing). This is a new norm as of the 50’s and effectively triples demand without even needing population growth.

  • population growth on top of the above

  • massive concentrated job/economic centers, effectively limiting viable housing spots in rural areas

  • housing being a primary investment vehicle for people, which creates a million horrible incentives to drive up prices for existing holders . Also new as of the 50’s. (Zoning, nimbies, land use policies, bubbles, investors, flippers, etc etc) all are in this bucket.

  • climate change impacts removing massive swaths of existing housing (fires, floods, etc) and in some cases rendering areas that had once held communities completely uninhabitable.

El Mero Mero fucked around with this message at 06:58 on Feb 9, 2023

Hadlock
Nov 9, 2004

Hadlock posted:

Housing crash is just doom porn click bait to get clicks on youtube

I have been following Hurricane Ian for the last ~10 days (a lot of local news stations started doing a daily "tropical update" on youtube) and was surprised by the number of doom porn weather youtube channels out there you have to navigate around to find valid sources. Yellowstone is a super volcano that's overdue to explode, this weather event will kill humanity, this fault line will KILL everyone in california and SOON, minor 4.0 earthquake in japan TUSNAMI WARNING IN EFFECT etc etc

Two main points

1) lending standards are almost too high now, this is not 2008
2) there's just no loving housing stock to buy:



We are still digging our way out of the housing build deficit, shaded here in red. Source: https://www.macrotrends.net/1314/housing-starts-historical-chart arguably the shaded region should go up to the 1,800 line not the 1,400 line.

Edit, better statistics https://www.freddiemac.com/research/insight/20210507-housing-supply



3.8 million defecit means, if you made a list of every city with with 100,000 or more people, every single one of those cities would need to add 11,480 more housing units, or, 114 additional, 100-unit apartment complexes/condos (most apartment complexes are under 60 units). Every city on that list of 331 cities would need an additional 11,480 units.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_cities_by_population#50_states_and_the_District_of_Columbia

Requoting this effort post

It's hard to understate how hosed our housing situation is, the post-08 dip really made things a lot worse

Edit: re climate change, lol, Phoenix AZ recently refused to renew their water sales agreement to at least one "town" nearby in order to preserve water for their own citizen going forward, and then when they started having water delivered by truck from Phoenix, made it illegal to export their water outside of the city. That's not great for people living on the edge of cities without wells, and puts additional pressure on already oversubscribed desert aquifers

Hadlock fucked around with this message at 07:59 on Feb 9, 2023

Ornery and Hornery
Oct 22, 2020

Hadlock posted:

Housing crash is just doom porn click bait to get clicks on youtube

I have been following Hurricane Ian for the last ~10 days (a lot of local news stations started doing a daily "tropical update" on youtube) and was surprised by the number of doom porn weather youtube channels out there you have to navigate around to find valid sources. Yellowstone is a super volcano that's overdue to explode, this weather event will kill humanity, this fault line will KILL everyone in california and SOON, minor 4.0 earthquake in japan TUSNAMI WARNING IN EFFECT etc etc

Two main points

1) lending standards are almost too high now, this is not 2008
2) there's just no loving housing stock to buy:



We are still digging our way out of the housing build deficit, shaded here in red. Source: https://www.macrotrends.net/1314/housing-starts-historical-chart arguably the shaded region should go up to the 1,800 line not the 1,400 line.

Edit, better statistics https://www.freddiemac.com/research/insight/20210507-housing-supply



3.8 million defecit means, if you made a list of every city with with 100,000 or more people, every single one of those cities would need to add 11,480 more housing units, or, 114 additional, 100-unit apartment complexes/condos (most apartment complexes are under 60 units). Every city on that list of 331 cities would need an additional 11,480 units.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_cities_by_population#50_states_and_the_District_of_Columbia

I appreciate the effort post

therobit
Aug 19, 2008

I've been tryin' to speak with you for a long time

Hadlock posted:

Requoting this effort post

It's hard to understate how hosed our housing situation is, the post-08 dip really made things a lot worse

Edit: re climate change, lol, Phoenix AZ recently refused to renew their water sales agreement to at least one "town" nearby in order to preserve water for their own citizen going forward, and then when they started having water delivered by truck from Phoenix, made it illegal to export their water outside of the city. That's not great for people living on the edge of cities without wells, and puts additional pressure on already oversubscribed desert aquifers

Phoenix, AZ along with a lot of SoCal should not exist as a population center.

QuarkJets
Sep 8, 2008

therobit posted:

Phoenix, AZ along with a lot of SoCal should not exist as a population center.

I absolutely agree. I grew up there, Phoenix is a stupid rear end place that should have maybe 100k people not millions and millions. But the real problem with water usage there comes from agriculture; overall total water usage per year in the state has actually been declining slowly since the 80s and a lot of that comes down to people moving onto land that was previously agricultural, which still dominates at around 70% of total consumption.

The whole region should be designated as a nature reserve imo

Cyrano4747
Sep 25, 2006

Yes, I know I'm old, get off my fucking lawn so I can yell at these clouds.

QuarkJets posted:

I absolutely agree. I grew up there, Phoenix is a stupid rear end place that should have maybe 100k people not millions and millions. But the real problem with water usage there comes from agriculture; overall total water usage per year in the state has actually been declining slowly since the 80s and a lot of that comes down to people moving onto land that was previously agricultural, which still dominates at around 70% of total consumption.

The whole region should be designated as a nature reserve imo

Not just agriculture, obscenely water intensive agriculture. They're growing loving alfalfa in the goddamned Mojave. See also: almonds, avocados.

If you want to have a farm in the desert there are ways to do it. If you want to be stupid and farm in the desert you can even grow, I dunno, corn etc. If you want to be a loving moron you grow motherfucking alfalfa I can't loving even.

Note that alfalfa is loving hay.

Qwijib0
Apr 10, 2007

Who needs on-field skills when you can dance like this?

Fun Shoe
Alfalfa is grown by saudi-owned companies in areas with no well restrictions and then shipped home. They are effectively exporting water.

in a well actually
Jan 26, 2011

dude, you gotta end it on the rhyme

Hadlock posted:

Requoting this effort post

It's hard to understate how hosed our housing situation is, the post-08 dip really made things a lot worse

Edit: re climate change, lol, Phoenix AZ recently refused to renew their water sales agreement to at least one "town" nearby in order to preserve water for their own citizen going forward, and then when they started having water delivered by truck from Phoenix, made it illegal to export their water outside of the city. That's not great for people living on the edge of cities without wells, and puts additional pressure on already oversubscribed desert aquifers

“Cities” specifically set up as tax-dodge not-touching-you libertarian enclaves to avoid the actual cost of providing the services they need to live.

I’m reminded of Omaha subdivisions that had their roads reduced to gravel because they weren’t in the city and wouldn’t pay to repave them.

We’ve been talking in this thread for years about which LV suburbs don’t have enough water.

I’m somewhat surprised Romney or the LDS hasn’t made a big play to prevent the Great Salt Lake collapse.

El Mero Mero
Oct 13, 2001

Funny you should mention that, I was just reading this report a couple weeks ago about that. We’ll see if they actually take action on it.

IOwnCalculus
Apr 2, 2003





in a well actually posted:

“Cities” specifically set up as tax-dodge not-touching-you libertarian enclaves to avoid the actual cost of providing the services they need to live.

I’m reminded of Omaha subdivisions that had their roads reduced to gravel because they weren’t in the city and wouldn’t pay to repave them.

We’ve been talking in this thread for years about which LV suburbs don’t have enough water.

I’m somewhat surprised Romney or the LDS hasn’t made a big play to prevent the Great Salt Lake collapse.

Yeah. It was Scottsdale that turned off the taps, not Phoenix, and the "development" in question is an unincorporated area made of chunks of land that were very carefully divided in a way to make sure that they were not actually legally required to validate any supply of water.

They also weren't even physically hooked up to Scottsdale's water; they were literally just trucking it in, and Scottsdale stopped filling the trucks.

But as stupid as all of metro Phoenix is (and I say this as a resident), the biggest water problem AZ has is this by far:

Qwijib0 posted:

Alfalfa is grown by saudi-owned companies in areas with no well restrictions and then shipped home. They are effectively exporting water.

Ornery and Hornery
Oct 22, 2020

Why alfalfa

Cyrano4747
Sep 25, 2006

Yes, I know I'm old, get off my fucking lawn so I can yell at these clouds.


The tl;dr is that the Saudis got it into their heads that they wanted to have dairy cattle. Specifically some type of special snowflake Dutch cows. They've got a herd of something like 150k head outside Riyad. IIRC UAE also got in on it.

Dairy cows are not native to the desert, so they need things like AC'd barns and to import food and water for them.

The alfalfa is to feed the cows.

(it's not just the US they're loving, IIRC they also did something similar in Ethiopia and are massively loving up the headwaters of the Nile)

Hadlock
Nov 9, 2004

Devil's advocate but much of the grain we grow is for export. A huge number of counties are dependent on imported wheat, the Ukraine invasion by the Russians hosed with the food security of a lot of countries as they're a major grain exporter.

I won't argue that growing water heavy crops in the desert is a poor utilization of resources though

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

Yeah alfalfa is extremely water intensive, whereas wheat and rye etc. aren't totally desert-friendly crops but they're far better.

This UC davis report says

quote:

About 1,000,000 acres of alfalfa are irrigated in California. This large acreage coupled with a long growing season make alfalfa the largest agricultural user of water, with annual water applications of 4,000,000 to 5,500,000 acre-feet.

Although this publication by UC Cooperative Extension points out that part of the reason alfalfa acreage uses so much water is that it's grown year-round, vs. acres growing only seasonal crops:

quote:

Alfalfa does not really use more water than other crops. At full canopy (when the leaves cover the soil surface), alfalfa's water use is not much different than any other crop (think spinach, lettuce, tomato, wheat, almonds or corn) per unit time. The Evapotranspiration (ET) requirement (the amount of water a crop really needs to grow) is remarkably similar across crops at full canopy (see FAO tabulated values for the water requirements of crops).

Alfalfa's water use profile in California is primarily due to its high acreage and nearly year-round growth pattern in many regions. If spinach were continually grown on 850,000 to 1 million acres all year long, the water use would be about the same as alfalfa, perhaps more.

Further, it's not so much how much water is used, but how much crop is produced per unit water that is important – also known as water-use efficiency. In that category, alfalfa shines.

This latter sentence is really a yield-first prioritization, which is ignoring that alfalfa is cattle feed, not human food, so you have to divide the yield of alfalfa by how much it takes to produce a steak before you get to how much actual food value per acre is being produced. Additionally, it would be absurd to grow a million acres of spinach in severe drought conditions, for similar reasons. The absolute restriction on available water means that regardless of yield we must transition to crops that use less water.

Wheat, on the other hand, is mostly grown for human consumption, and cereal crops are essential to the global food chain. Wheat is a "cool-season" crop so it's less typical to heavily irrigate midsummer when evaporation is worst. In many cases wheat is grown entirely without irrigation!

Leperflesh fucked around with this message at 21:03 on Feb 9, 2023

Pollyanna
Mar 5, 2005

Milk's on them.


But wheat is carbs :confused:

Bread Set Jettison
Jan 8, 2009

Can someone explain APR vs Rate and if I should give a poo poo about APR. It seems insanely arbitrary.

Also as I shop for mortgages, why are the closing costs so goddamn different? One bank gave me an itemized list and basically quoted me 8k closing costs, while another just gave us a loose estimate closer to 5k. What on earth

Arsenic Lupin
Apr 12, 2012

This particularly rapid💨 unintelligible 😖patter💁 isn't generally heard🧏‍♂️, and if it is🤔, it doesn't matter💁.


Bread Set Jettison posted:

Can someone explain APR vs Rate and if I should give a poo poo about APR. It seems insanely arbitrary.

Also as I shop for mortgages, why are the closing costs so goddamn different? One bank gave me an itemized list and basically quoted me 8k closing costs, while another just gave us a loose estimate closer to 5k. What on earth
"Rate" is "You'll pay us 5% a month." "Annual Percentage Rate" is "Actually, when you count in the closing fees we made you pay, plus other stuff you had to pay at closing, it's more like 5.1%". As long as you always compare APR to APR, the underlying rate is not important.

Closing costs are an amazing ripoff. Some of them (transfer tax, the cost of appraisal, title insurance) are real things that have to be paid. Some of them are junk fees. And be warned that your estimate is not what you'll actually be met with when you close. This is because things like where the closing date is within a month affect how much mortgage you have to pay to cover that month.

DaveSauce
Feb 15, 2004

Oh, how awkward.

Bread Set Jettison posted:

Also as I shop for mortgages, why are the closing costs so goddamn different? One bank gave me an itemized list and basically quoted me 8k closing costs, while another just gave us a loose estimate closer to 5k. What on earth

thread title.txt

Did they give you the "official" loan estimate? That lines out exactly what you're paying for (or rather estimates thereof, but it's somewhat binding). Some are things you can shop for, some are not. If they didn't, which I suspect they didn't, look up example loan estimates on like CFPB. There's an explainer there.

Loan origination costs are purely the bank's cost to you. That's the money you're paying them to generate the loan. This is the "gently caress you" money. Origination fee, application fee, points, etc. should be here.

There's a pile of things that they do and charge you for, but they get to choose who does it so you don't get a say in the matter. This is stuff like appraisals, credit reports, etc.

Then there's a pile of things they require, but you get to choose who does it. This is stuff like attorney fees, title insurance, etc.

Then there's a bunch of stuff that they shouldn't be putting on a quote but they might, such as prepaids, escrow, etc. These are things that are going to happen no matter who you borrow from and aren't really "closing costs" per se, but they are required to be paid for at closing.

Are you under contract yet? If so, now is the time to be talking to every loan company you can find and trying to find the best deal. If you're still shopping and just need a pre-approval or something, get that from anyone and move on. You'll never have accurate numbers until you're actually under contract.

DaveSauce fucked around with this message at 22:02 on Feb 9, 2023

Bread Set Jettison
Jan 8, 2009

I am contingent rn and our inspection is tomorrow :yikes: Literally a 600k condo surrounded by 1.5 mil condos somehow???? Love massachusetts

The realtor (who is a good dude and extremely responsive) recommended the company we used for our pre-approval (less responsive) who have us a 6%ish rate and huge closing costs (actually closer to 9????)

Also the APR thing is strange to me. The other quote I got was from local bank. Their rate is 5.7, and their closing costs are almost half, and our p&I is lower, but their APR is higher????

E: it’s almost certainly because this lower rate is because it’s a 10/6 mortgage

Bread Set Jettison fucked around with this message at 22:21 on Feb 9, 2023

Sundae
Dec 1, 2005

Bread Set Jettison posted:

Literally a 600k condo surrounded by 1.5 mil condos somehow???? Love massachusetts

Condo contract somehow contains an easement to grant stove and fridge access to all your neighbors.
Alternatively: Title check comes back that you don't own the garage, parking space or driveway. Also, neighbor's plot somehow includes a single stair on your staircase, and they've added a tollbooth.:v:

BonoMan
Feb 20, 2002

Jade Ear Joe

Sundae posted:


Alternatively: Title check comes back that you don't own the garage, parking space or driveway. Also, neighbor's plot somehow includes a single stair on your staircase, and they've added a tollbooth.:v:

or the condo!

Bread Set Jettison
Jan 8, 2009

We do share part of the driveway, but have a single garage spot for us and a shared one with the downstairs neighbor.

Also the house was built in 1901s and is priced to sell because the owners were landlords (lol) who moved and can’t rent it for whatever reason.

It’s a crazy deal, and there’s a real chance we walk away if the somewhat old roof needs a lot of repairs and anything else pops up.

Bread Set Jettison fucked around with this message at 22:32 on Feb 9, 2023

Mr Interweb
Aug 25, 2004

do we have a thread that deals specifically about the issues of rental agreements/leases?

KYOON GRIFFEY JR
Apr 12, 2010



Runner-up, TRP Sack Race 2021/22

Sundae posted:

Condo contract somehow contains an easement to grant stove and fridge access to all your neighbors.
Alternatively: Title check comes back that you don't own the garage, parking space or driveway. Also, neighbor's plot somehow includes a single stair on your staircase, and they've added a tollbooth.:v:

:wrongcity:

El Mero Mero
Oct 13, 2001

Mr Interweb posted:

do we have a thread that deals specifically about the issues of rental agreements/leases?

maybe try the legal questions thread?

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Shifty Pony
Dec 28, 2004

Up ta somethin'


Got the survey back and everything looks kosher

Except the fact that a small section of soon-to-be-my fence is biting off about 8" more than it should be of the neighbor's lot :whitewater:

Whatever that little spot it half buried in a hedge anyway nobody will know but the cardinals.

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