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Round-up of news of the day President of Ukraine quote:https://www.president.gov.ua/en/news/gotuyemo-povernennya-nashih-voyiniv-do-aktivnih-dij-zaradi-z-81361 US Department of Defense quote:https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3313904/defense-officials-us-ensures-accountability-of-systems-supplied-to-ukraine Reuters quote:https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russians-intensify-assault-bakhmut-ukrainian-forces-try-dig-2023-03-01/ Guardian quote:https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/28/world-war-one-relentless-battle-for-bakhmut-ukraine Washington Post quote:https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/02/28/republicans-ukraine-biden-pentagon/ New York Times quote:https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/28/us/politics/ukraine-congress-military-spending-republicans-democrats.html
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# ? Mar 1, 2023 02:39 |
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# ? Jun 3, 2024 22:31 |
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Not sure I fully agree with you, to circle back to this post. Thank you for this breakdown, very informative
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# ? Mar 1, 2023 03:14 |
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cinci zoo sniper posted:War in Ukraine: Not interested, but $400m is $400m.
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# ? Mar 1, 2023 06:25 |
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https://yle.fi/a/74-20020165 A few comments in Finnish media about the earlier article. quote:Finnish officer disparaged Ukraine's war skills - this is how Toveri and Käihkö commented Note: Toveri means Comrade, so if there's a stray comrade in the translation I missed, it's talking about ret. major general Toveri. He's also the former head of intelligence in Finnish Defence Command, so his perspective is both interesting and (I feel) reflects quite well on what the defence establishment wants to put out in public.
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# ? Mar 1, 2023 09:48 |
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Qtotonibudinibudet posted:oh hey, someone took that regional death map and added per-capita visualization like i wanted and oof Noted colonial regions Volgograd, Bryansk and Ulyanovsk and imperial center of Ingushetia and Tatarstan fatherboxx fucked around with this message at 11:48 on Mar 1, 2023 |
# ? Mar 1, 2023 11:44 |
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fatherboxx posted:Noted colonial regions Volgograd, Bryansk and Ulyanovsk and imperial center of Ingushetia and Tatarstan Junisbai definitely has an (understandable, as Kazakh diaspora) opinion, but the overall difference between Moscow/SPB and the regions is clear i am curious what explains the marked difference between, say, Ingushetia or Khanty-Mansi and Buryatia or North Ossetia/Alania, but eh
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# ? Mar 1, 2023 12:31 |
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Qtotonibudinibudet posted:oh hey, someone took that regional death map and added per-capita visualization like i wanted and oof That's a fairly high percentage from the Kalinigrad Oblast, I wasn't expecting this...
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# ? Mar 1, 2023 12:38 |
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Qtotonibudinibudet posted:Junisbai definitely has an (understandable, as Kazakh diaspora) opinion, but the overall difference between Moscow/SPB and the regions is clear Yes, it is mostly economically depressed regions that are hit hardest because the state pays extremely well for military service compared to average salary there. 200k roubles monthly is still way more than Moscow/SPB average but not enough for significant supply of people marching to their deaths to be formed. For many regions, though, it is absolutely life-changing. Being in the gutter economically does not always align with being a region with a high minority population (hello, Tatarstan). Tuva and Buryatya are both and thanks to Shoigu military service is the only social elevator there.
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# ? Mar 1, 2023 12:42 |
Seems that CNN sources yesterday were saying that Bakhmut is in a worse shape than what's being officially let on. https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-02-28-23/h_146347c2b7931af1e6cfd7bf95f8318bQtotonibudinibudet posted:Junisbai definitely has an (understandable, as Kazakh diaspora) opinion, but the overall difference between Moscow/SPB and the regions is clear Kikas posted:That's a fairly high percentage from the Kalinigrad Oblast, I wasn't expecting this... You have to overlay income and subordinate factors, like access to education and employment, to describe this more rigorously. Edit: ^^^ right, social mobility would be the more clearly defined and comprehensive factor here. cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 12:56 on Mar 1, 2023 |
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# ? Mar 1, 2023 12:43 |
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I'm really hoping this turns into a Stalingrad scenario where all the attacks are stuck at the tips trying to take one building or tree square at a time, making their flanks and reserves low and Ukraine goes in around them and cuts them off (or at least, make them retreat like Kharkov/Karkiev did). Ukraine is going to try and launch an offensive with all their new armour they are getting, the question is where they will do it.
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# ? Mar 1, 2023 13:20 |
Comstar posted:I'm really hoping this turns into a Stalingrad scenario where all the attacks are stuck at the tips trying to take one building or tree square at a time, making their flanks and reserves low and Ukraine goes in around them and cuts them off (or at least, make them retreat like Kharkov/Karkiev did). Without commenting on how psychotic “I'm really hoping this turns into a Stalingrad scenario” can come off, the offensive is most likely launched in the south, and it's an open question if it should be done with arriving western gear, or with the existing Soviet stocks, backfilling with western stuff afterwards. My money on the latter.
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# ? Mar 1, 2023 13:50 |
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Finland's parliament has done a final vote on NATO membership, which unsurprisingly passed 184 to 7 - almost the same numbers as a year ago when we were deciding whether to apply. Of the no votes, 6 were Left Alliance, which is a party that is half modern city liberals and half insane Stalinists (they have 16 reps, whose votes were 8 for, 6 against, 2 absent); and 1 no vote was an insane right-wing Putinist who was kicked out of the Basic Finns right-wing populist semi-racist party for being too racist. Horseshoe theory, more like horseshoe fact. Link to article (in Finnish) Of course Turkey and Hungary still need to ratify. Hungary was supposed to have done it already but they're now saying it will be in end of March. Turkey remains to be seen but personally I suspect they'll ratify shortly after their big election which is in mid-May. Also I suspect Turkey will be fine with both Finland and Sweden in the end... here's hoping.
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# ? Mar 1, 2023 14:15 |
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Kikas posted:That's a fairly high percentage from the Kalinigrad Oblast, I wasn't expecting this... Kaliningrad had (has) a major military presence for obvious reasons. Unless I'm misreading Wikipedia, there were 225k contract troops stationed there in 2014; if most of them were registered as Kaliningrad residents, that would certainly inflate the numbers once a lot of them were transferred to the Ukrainian front.
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# ? Mar 1, 2023 14:25 |
jaete posted:Of course Turkey and Hungary still need to ratify. Hungary was supposed to have done it already but they're now saying it will be in end of March. Turkey remains to be seen but personally I suspect they'll ratify shortly after their big election which is in mid-May. Also I suspect Turkey will be fine with both Finland and Sweden in the end... here's hoping. Some Hungarian diplomats are making noise on Facebook that this will get tied to the EU funds release for Hungary, but I think this is closer to farting than to real life.
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# ? Mar 1, 2023 14:31 |
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nahuman posted:https://yle.fi/a/74-20020165 That earlier piece seems to have stirred a bunch of people with more experience into talking. I'll also note that there's been a number of other people who went to Ukraine to train Ukrainians in an ad hoc way who seem to have left or otherwise found the experience unsatisfying as Ukrainian command just did not have some important role in the greater training system to slot them in to so they mostly ended up teaching TDF basics and hanging out in strip clubs. That was the exact drama shitshow that the Mozart group (group founded by an American to connect people with military skills with Ukrainian units in need of training and they had some people with very impressive resumes involved) imploded in. Particularly as formal training has increasingly been conducted in larger units overseas in actual training grounds, the needs for random high-maintenance western dudes to provide small scale training has by all accounts really fallen off. I probably sound dismissive but I don't want to suggest that it was completely worthless because teaching tdf guys which end of magazine goes in gun level stuff almost certainly saved lives and was in demand at the time. I'm not in any way saying that Ukraine's armed forces are beyond reproach or flawless or anything like that, but the dismissiveness of their abilities in that first yle piece people were linking seemed decidedly out of proportion to the amount of ability Ukraine has clearly demonstrated at fighting and destroying the Russian military. Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 18:52 on Mar 1, 2023 |
# ? Mar 1, 2023 18:37 |
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A few recent videos on the C2 training. Forces TV is part of the MOD news service and the WSJ are clearly using footage provided from them. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6W5eUUqD7N4 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5cu3N0y7Sf8 There's still saying C2 handover to Ukraine this month. I'm guessing they won't be seen at the frontline until Ukraine are ready for a specific counter-offensive.
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# ? Mar 1, 2023 21:37 |
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Any counter-offensive by Ukraine will likely be after the rainy season ends. Bakhmut will likely be lost long before then. Would be very unwise for Ukraine to throw in the new equipment into the meatgrinder piecemeal. But what do I know I ain't no tactician.
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# ? Mar 1, 2023 21:54 |
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kemikalkadet posted:Maxar got some imagery of the AWACs in Belarus today. Looks like maybe some damage to the disc but it's probably not going to be out of action for long. Despite how underwhelming this attack seems to be, Ukraine's most far reaching drone attacks so far coincided with the event. Which could imply that this AWACS was plain supposed to be spotting these drones. So for whatever days this blinds this part of russian operation allows for Ukranian attacks
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# ? Mar 1, 2023 22:41 |
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# ? Mar 1, 2023 22:47 |
That sure looks like an airplane with snow on it.
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# ? Mar 1, 2023 23:24 |
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spankmeister posted:Any counter-offensive by Ukraine will likely be after the rainy season ends. Bakhmut will likely be lost long before then. Would be very unwise for Ukraine to throw in the new equipment into the meatgrinder piecemeal. But what do I know I ain't no tactician. Is a push across the south toward Melitopol the most likely site for a new Ukrainian counter-offensive? It's a long stretch, but cutting the overland route to Crimea would be a big deal.
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# ? Mar 1, 2023 23:53 |
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Dolash posted:Is a push across the south toward Melitopol the most likely site for a new Ukrainian counter-offensive? It's a long stretch, but cutting the overland route to Crimea would be a big deal. That's been the theory for that stated reason, in addition to a few attacks cutting off bridges in the area. Though if Bakmut falls, which it seems likely to now, I feel like a counter attack in that area is likely also in the works.
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# ? Mar 1, 2023 23:56 |
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I have been a little concerned that Bahkmut is getting outsized attention in Ukraine lately - the whole "Bahkmut holds!" slogan that was going around might suggest a certain emotional and political reason to hold there beyond purely strategic reasons which seems dangerous when long-term it was likely going to fall anyways. Though in that vein Mariupol fell that and that didn't cause an instant collapse of Ukrainian morale so it's probably not the end of the world, but here's hoping Ukraine has a clear-eyed view of what they're planning to get out of Bahkmut anyways.
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# ? Mar 2, 2023 00:18 |
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Tomn posted:I have been a little concerned that Bahkmut is getting outsized attention in Ukraine lately - the whole "Bahkmut holds!" slogan that was going around might suggest a certain emotional and political reason to hold there beyond purely strategic reasons which seems dangerous when long-term it was likely going to fall anyways. I think they do. I get that their intent is to get Russia to blow themselves out trying to take it, to set them up for a counteroffensive coming soon. The "Bahkmut Holds" stuff I assume is psyops to keep the Russians on the line.
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# ? Mar 2, 2023 00:24 |
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Deteriorata posted:I think they do. I get that their intent is to get Russia to blow themselves out trying to take it, to set them up for a counteroffensive coming soon. The "Bahkmut Holds" stuff I assume is psyops to keep the Russians on the line. This is how I am interpreting it as well. By making it a "big deal" it could further focus Russian attention and resources (or, further validate the existing focus, attention, resource dedication) while "other things" happen elsewhere with comparatively less focus, attention and resources. Ukraine has a history of Doing Multiple Things At Once (Kharkiv and Kherson offensives, for example), so this may be Prong 1 of a multi-pronged Something. edit: it is definitely interesting how up until recently Bakhmut was not a very strategically important place, and now suddenly it is.
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# ? Mar 2, 2023 00:48 |
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Keep in mind that Russia's stated strategic goal is the seizure of Kramatorsk and Sloviansk,. There are basically no major towns between those cities and Bahmut. The Russians can bypass Chasiv Yar to the north. Theres a canal running north-south but those atent exactly impenetrable. Theres slso the cluster of towns further south at Pivichne, Toretsk and New York which hadnt seen much movement in some time by the looks of it. So long as the Russians are able to pincer UA positions its going to be a problem. It all depends on when the Russians hit their culmination point.
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# ? Mar 2, 2023 01:06 |
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^^^ I think you may have just answered my question. chupacabraTERROR posted:This is how I am interpreting it as well. By making it a "big deal" it could further focus Russian attention and resources (or, further validate the existing focus, attention, resource dedication) while "other things" happen elsewhere with comparatively less focus, attention and resources. Ukraine has a history of Doing Multiple Things At Once (Kharkiv and Kherson offensives, for example), so this may be Prong 1 of a multi-pronged Something. Can anyone elucidate as to why Bakhmut is suddenly so important? I don't get why Russia is so heavily concentrated on it. Is it a logistical hub?
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# ? Mar 2, 2023 01:09 |
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Brave New World posted:^^^ It's really close to a highway (M03?) that connects to their logistics chain back to the rail lines, so it's relatively easier to keep supplied for offensive operations, And it's a stepping stone to Slovyansk and Kramatorak
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# ? Mar 2, 2023 01:22 |
Tomn posted:I have been a little concerned that Bahkmut is getting outsized attention in Ukraine lately - the whole "Bahkmut holds!" slogan that was going around might suggest a certain emotional and political reason to hold there beyond purely strategic reasons which seems dangerous when long-term it was likely going to fall anyways. Their officials, fwiw, are trying to massage the language out now, which I guess is to say where their internal calculus lies on balancing the emotional versus the practical. This is on top of the occasional sanity “statement” through the past weeks, to assuage fears that you express specifically, that it's a political (forever) holding ground. I do personally believe that there was a major political component to hold at least one day past the anniversary, though. ??
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# ? Mar 2, 2023 01:28 |
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I also wouldn't be surprised if "it is strategically important (because we are eliminating/tying down a LOT of invaders there for reasonable investment)"
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# ? Mar 2, 2023 01:28 |
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Dolash posted:Is a push across the south toward Melitopol the most likely site for a new Ukrainian counter-offensive? It's a long stretch, but cutting the overland route to Crimea would be a big deal. If you ignore everything else, and look at the map alone, that's clearly the best place for Ukraine to attack. The downside is that the Russians know how to look at maps too. That area is probably the place they have fortified the most. So it's possible that some place east of it is a preferable location, just because it would be less well defended.
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# ? Mar 2, 2023 01:35 |
Brave New World posted:Can anyone elucidate as to why Bakhmut is suddenly so important? I don't get why Russia is so heavily concentrated on it. Is it a logistical hub? It's really just an epic story mainly, and also the only area on the whole frontline where the grand winter offensive of RuAF is able to advance consistently. With nothing similarly eye-catching going on, all the eyeballs are there. It does sit on some roads and so on, which have their intrinsic utility, but this is not some decapitating strike against Ukrainian transport/logistics infrastructure. They take two roads, but 1 is short and leads (over a blown bridge) to another Bakhmut-sized town, whereas the other is a straight line into what probably is the most fortified urban area in Ukraine. Stepping back from armchair generalship, there's political value in taking Bakhmut for Russians because they're missing very little of Donetsk oblast's territory to proclaim it as captured (“liberated”).
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# ? Mar 2, 2023 01:40 |
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chupacabraTERROR posted:This is how I am interpreting it as well. By making it a "big deal" it could further focus Russian attention and resources (or, further validate the existing focus, attention, resource dedication) while "other things" happen elsewhere with comparatively less focus, attention and resources. Ukraine has a history of Doing Multiple Things At Once (Kharkiv and Kherson offensives, for example), so this may be Prong 1 of a multi-pronged Something. The Ukrainian commander for the Donbass was recently relieved, so it's possible those things are related. I am conjecturing, though. The report of Leopards near Ukraine concerns me because I think it unwise to trickle on new capabilities, but on reflection I suspect it's a ruse. I'll go on the record with a prediction: Ukraine's concept of operations involves fixing Russia's attention--and in particular those two division's they have in reserve near Kreminna--on Bakhmut. Then Ukraine will attempt an operational breakthrough elsewhere.
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# ? Mar 2, 2023 01:40 |
Tuna-Fish posted:If you ignore everything else, and look at the map alone, that's clearly the best place for Ukraine to attack. The downside is that the Russians know how to look at maps too. That area is probably the place they have fortified the most. Yes. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/02/10/world/europe/russia-ukraine-offensives-maps.html
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# ? Mar 2, 2023 01:42 |
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Brave New World posted:
I think part of it is that it is actually coming close to falling now. It has been a topic of more granular war reporting for months. See for example this account that is generally optimistic about Russia's prospects: https://imgur.com/a/cY1Yhns (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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# ? Mar 2, 2023 01:44 |
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Brave New World posted:Can anyone elucidate as to why Bakhmut is suddenly so important? FWIW the battle for Bakhmut started in early August, and long range fire on the city before then. They've been fighting over it for half of the entire war, so it didn't suddenly become important.
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# ? Mar 2, 2023 02:35 |
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saratoga posted:FWIW the battle for Bakhmut started in early August, and long range fire on the city before then. They've been fighting over it for half of the entire war, so it didn't suddenly become important. Not quite true. The "Battle of Bakhmut" started on August 1 and is defined by the Russian push from Popasna and is a really weird date to mark the start of that conflict. Using August 1 (as found in the wiki) is for some reason ignoring the months of fighting in Bakhmut that had been ongoing since May when Popasna fell and Ukraine retreated to Bakhmut. By the time August 1 came around Bakhmut had long already looked like the Somme E: not saying this is your doing or anything to be clear, the wiki is just inaccurate in my view
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# ? Mar 2, 2023 04:12 |
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Round-up of news of the day President of Ukraine quote:https://www.president.gov.ua/en/news/cya-zima-bula-duzhe-skladnoyu-ale-mi-zmogli-zabezpechiti-ukr-81373 Reuters quote:https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-clings-bakhmut-time-may-be-running-out-russians-advance-2023-03-02/ New York Times quote:https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/01/world/europe/ukraine-russia-bakhmut-reinforcements.html Guardian quote:https://www.theguardian.com/world/l...f08112894f385f6 CNN quote:
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# ? Mar 2, 2023 04:59 |
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Without commenting on how psychotic “I'm really hoping this turns into a Stalingrad scenario” can come off, Seems like a pretty big comment there chief. Moving on, the one place they will NOT attack with heavy armored forces is at the site of a battle that is on the level of a WW1 battlefield. But if they want to kick the Russians out, Ukraine has to go around the moonscape and mined area (and not just a thin defence line, but many kilometers of bad roads and mines laying about), and without having a handy edge of the map to move along, that means they must go around. And if they go around on both flanks, they will entrap the attackers stuck in the horror of that city. And I am pretty sure there aren't many Russian reserve formations behind the front line, because it will all be at the front. And if they did do it, and entrap large enemy formations...it could mean the end of the war at one stroke. It's going to make some interesting war games to play in a decade or so. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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# ? Mar 2, 2023 07:10 |
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# ? Jun 3, 2024 22:31 |
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Comstar posted:Seems like a pretty big comment there chief. Moving on, the one place they will NOT attack with heavy armored forces is at the site of a battle that is on the level of a WW1 battlefield. But if they want to kick the Russians out, Ukraine has to go around the moonscape and mined area (and not just a thin defence line, but many kilometers of bad roads and mines laying about), and without having a handy edge of the map to move along, that means they must go around. And if they go around on both flanks, they will entrap the attackers stuck in the horror of that city. This is not the Harry Potter fanfiction thread.
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# ? Mar 2, 2023 08:10 |