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Hadlock posted:Long term is 20%, how high do they want to raise it 39.6% but only for high income folks
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Mar 10, 2023 01:07
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Hadlock posted:Long term is 20%, how high do they want to raise it to 40, but it scales starting on > 500k of capital gains profits and tops out much higher gains. IE: not an issue for you notwithoutmyanus fucked around with this message at 01:13 on Mar 10, 2023 |
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Mar 10, 2023 01:09
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In what possible reality would a GOP held house pass such a thing?
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Mar 10, 2023 01:18
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Subvisual Haze posted:In what possible reality would a GOP held house pass such a thing? Or Dem held house for that matter.
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Mar 10, 2023 01:22
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DapperDraculaDeer posted:Id wait to see how the market reacts to Bidens proposed capital gains tax increase first. If that triggers a tantrum there will be a lot more blood. No one will care because nothing Biden proposes has a nonzero chance of getting through Congress.
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Mar 10, 2023 01:26
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Yeah the president's budget proposal is never real, it's just the kickoff in a political football game. Given the republicans own the house, you can basically assume there will be zero tax increases and lots of cuts to essential programs, as the "compromise" bill that is eventually passed, several months late.
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Mar 10, 2023 01:26
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Seems pretty efficient way to dry up investment. If you're gonna take on the enormous investment risk, and wait over a year just to keep 60% of the profit, might as well just stick it in a savings account Seems like an empty useless gesture
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Mar 10, 2023 01:26
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Hadlock posted:Seems pretty efficient way to dry up investment. If you're gonna take on the enormous investment risk, and wait over a year just to keep 60% of the profit, might as well just stick it in a savings account Yes, you're right, I'd rather make zero money than 60% of lots of money, this is very sensible are you one of those people who declines a raise because "it'll put me in a higher tax bracket"
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Mar 10, 2023 01:29
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Hadlock posted:Seems pretty efficient way to dry up investment. If you're gonna take on the enormous investment risk, and wait over a year just to keep 60% of the profit, might as well just stick it in a savings account
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Mar 10, 2023 01:33
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Hadlock posted:Seems pretty efficient way to dry up investment. If you're gonna take on the enormous investment risk, and wait over a year just to keep 60% of the profit, might as well just stick it in a savings account Proposing it now is an empty gesture for his base, yes. Your idea re: dumping money in savings accounts for fear of taxation reflects a common American trope and is part of why we'll never have reasonably taxed capital gains. Of course if you can make more on a savings account that's where you should put the money, but anything you make from savings is also taxable income.
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Mar 10, 2023 01:36
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Vox Nihili posted:Proposing it now is an empty gesture for his base, yes.
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Mar 10, 2023 01:42
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we best not repeat the mistakes of the 1940s through 1970s, well known as a period of economic stagnation and disinvestment in the US due to high tax rates
Shear Modulus fucked around with this message at 01:57 on Mar 10, 2023 |
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Mar 10, 2023 01:54
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notwithoutmyanus posted:to 40, but it scales starting on > 500k of capital gains profits and tops out much higher gains. IE: not an issue for you Does that $500k number track inflation
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Mar 10, 2023 01:56
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Hadlock posted:Does that $500k number track inflation It's only been proposed, it's a bit early to worry about inflation going forward.
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Mar 10, 2023 01:58
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i expected more talk of a top-20 us bank and s&p 500 member getting hit with a bank run today among the collapse of the entire VC scene https://twitter.com/BurryArchive/status/1633988433961177088?s=20 SIVB 266 -> 82 in less than 36h
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Mar 10, 2023 02:00
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Shear Modulus posted:we best not repeat the mistakes of the 1940s through 1970s, well known as a period of economic stagnation and disinvestment in the US due to high tax rates Should work fine as long as we replicate the important precondition "every other industrial economy in the world has been bombed into powder" like the US benefited from post-WW2.
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Mar 10, 2023 02:04
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notwithoutmyanus posted:It's only been proposed, it's a bit early to worry about inflation going forward. A lot of the tax code is written around an imaginary $400k income limit which seems fine unless you live in California
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Mar 10, 2023 02:16
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Hadlock posted:A lot of the tax code is written around an imaginary $400k income limit which seems fine unless you live in California Also fine unless it is 2023.
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Mar 10, 2023 02:29
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Subvisual Haze posted:Should work fine as long as we replicate the important precondition "every other industrial economy in the world has been bombed into powder" like the US benefited from post-WW2. My point was that high taxes do not in fact prevent investment. Being the last industrialized country standing isn't a requirement either. China has grown like gangbusters for the last several decades despite not selling the rest of the world material to rebuild after a war Hadlock posted:A lot of the tax code is written around an imaginary $400k income limit which seems fine unless you live in California 400k household income in california puts you in the 98th or 99th percentile. Marginal tax rates on income above $400k is in fact still fine if you live in california except for a very small portion of people Shear Modulus fucked around with this message at 02:48 on Mar 10, 2023 |
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Mar 10, 2023 02:35
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Shear Modulus posted:My point was that high taxes do not in fact prevent investment. Being the last industrialized country standing isn't a requirement either. China has grown like gangbusters for the last several decades despite not selling the rest of the world material to rebuild after a war Capital seeks maximum return. The US could have their cake and eat it too post-WW2 by happy virtue of being the only industrialized economy left standing in a global free trade paradigm. But the world economic order that the US profited on, much like the UK before them, is a globalized free trade one. And globalization cuts both ways, capital and costs can flow in and out freely. At this point if the US significantly increased capital investment tax rates, capital investment would happily relocate itself to environments more favorable for maximal investment returns like China or Vietnam or some western corporate tax haven like Ireland. If we stick with the globalization model, jacking up local tax rates doesn't work, capital just moves abroad. If we want to prevent that we'd need to abandon globalism for protectionism, which in addition to being a lot of work (which seems impossible in our current sclerotic gerontocracy), would result in drastically more expensive consumer goods domestically.
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Mar 10, 2023 02:55
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Nah it's fine for literally everyone. There is nowhere in California where capital gains income above $400k (or as proposed, $500k) being taxed at a rate that starts at that point to scale above 20% would leave you unable to afford reasonable housing, transportation, food, clothing, college education for your three kids, a huge amount every year poured into your 401k and investments, and a lot left over for your vacations, nice cars, and candles. Capital doesn't only invest in the US because of low taxes, it invests in the US because of high returns, liquidity, reliable regulation, political stability, accurate recordkeeping, and many more reasons. Vietnam may offer lower cap gains taxes but it hasn't got a forty trillion dollar stock market. Leperflesh fucked around with this message at 03:07 on Mar 10, 2023 |
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Mar 10, 2023 03:03
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pmchem posted:i expected more talk of a top-20 us bank and s&p 500 member getting hit with a bank run today among the collapse of the entire VC scene As it turns out, banking high risk companies dependent on cheap capital combined with holding significant assets in long term treasuries does poorly in a rising rates environment. I also got a laugh that they have a non-trivial amount of loans collateralized by "premium wines"
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Mar 10, 2023 03:08
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e: whoops, late to the cap gains rate raise conversation: Easiest way to do it would be increase the cap gains tax rate by like 1% per year for 10 years. Slow drag but not worth selling for. DNK fucked around with this message at 04:10 on Mar 10, 2023 |
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Mar 10, 2023 04:04
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pmchem posted:i expected more talk of a top-20 us bank and s&p 500 member getting hit with a bank run today among the collapse of the entire VC scene 
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Mar 10, 2023 04:45
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De-globalization is in fact happening right now. The energy market, which used to be the most fungible and global commodity market, is now split into two markets. Russia being cut out of the SWIFT network means that they are developing their own alternative that will likely be tightly integrated with Chinese finance. The US just leaned on the netherlands to slap an export ban on the latest chip lithography technology to china, so now companies can't expand their chinese fabs with those new machines even if they wanted to. It's of course not clear how much further this trend will continue or if it's just a temporary thing but the past couple years are evidence that deglobalization is possible pmchem maybe we ought to have that economics discussion thread
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Mar 10, 2023 05:01
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Hadlock posted:A lot of the tax code is written around an imaginary $400k income limit which seems fine unless you live in California Well it's all marginal rates. If you make a bit over $400,000 you don't explode and die, you just pay more on the excess over the first $400,000. Also, the way Social Security is taxed is the opposite, once you hit the annual max your payroll taxes actually drop and you're capped out on that particular tax for the rest of the year. Basically, I'm not shedding too many tears for those poor unfortunate bastards who hit half a million in taxable income per year.
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Mar 10, 2023 07:09
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drk posted:I also got a laugh that they have a non-trivial amount of loans collateralized by "premium wines" Gives new meaning to liquid assets
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Mar 10, 2023 12:23
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Hadlock posted:Thinking about putting in a limit order on 200 more shares of SoFi around $6 With SVIB falling over might buy some more shares of SoFi if we get into the $5.50s today. Looks like it was $6.04 but it can probably go lower on this news
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Mar 10, 2023 12:45
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Not being from the US, hearing all these years about this Jim Kramer fellow I always assumed it to be some standard financial news type of show. Imagine my surprise when I came across this show on a trip to the USA while flipping channels in the hotel and it's just some guy ringing bells and honking horns while shouting BUY BUY BUY.
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Mar 10, 2023 13:13
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Subvisual Haze posted:The intelligent billionare would dump all their funds in a federal tax exempt municipal bond fund like VWALX Uh huh. Quick question, what was the value of VWALX 10 years ago? Oh. Same as it is right now? Interesting.
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Mar 10, 2023 13:27
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John F Bennett posted:Not being from the US, hearing all these years about this Jim Kramer fellow I always assumed it to be some standard financial news type of show. Imagine my surprise when I came across this show on a trip to the USA while flipping channels in the hotel and it's just some guy ringing bells and honking horns while shouting BUY BUY BUY. yeah its kinda, a hedge fund manager looked over the fence at morning zoo radio hosts and had the epiphany that cocaine can be *fun* and not just a tool to get through the workday
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Mar 10, 2023 13:46
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My guess is that he wanted to pitch a finance show and that's the concept they came up with. The format isn't boring and I think he's one of the longest running shows (20 years? 22 years? he came on at the peak of the dot com boom) on cable news. Before that he taught finance at U Michigan or something so he's not some random talking head with zero credentials like a lot of the fox news commentators (I think tucker carlton or whatever is a trust fund baby from some wealthy family with no formal journalism credentials). The downside for Cramer is that he's one of the longest running shows on cable news and it's easy to track his predictions against a objective number. Full disclosure I own a share each of SJIM and LJIM because I'm highly amused by the whole situation Looks like SOFI (also a bay area bank) down to $5.87 lets see if it crosses $5.75
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Mar 10, 2023 14:24
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Scrungus posted:Uh huh. Quick question, what was the value of VWALX 10 years ago? Oh. Same as it is right now? Interesting. It's a bond fund, it distributes pretty much all its earnings. You don't look at share price for bond funds. Not saying it's a good idea but still.
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Mar 10, 2023 14:55
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Are VWALX dividends not taxed as well? Looks like 2-3% annual dividend return Inflation calculator returns $17.xx value for $10 back then so it's lost half it's core value since 2000, ignoring the dividend return
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Mar 10, 2023 15:10
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https://twitter.com/jimcramer/status/1634197816359747585
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Mar 10, 2023 15:33
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 that's spicy
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Mar 10, 2023 16:00
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Hadlock posted:Are VWALX dividends not taxed as well? Looks like 2-3% annual dividend return Aiui interest from muni bonds have some special tax exempt treatment as a way of basically giving a federal subsidy to localities that want to borrow money for schools, roads, whatever. This basically lowers the interest rate on those bonds because a lower tax free yield is equivalent to a higher taxable yield. Then you have various muni bond funds and money market products with pass through taxes to let people take advantage of that tax treatment without having to go out and shop for a basket of munis manually. Obviously there's no point in these products in a tax advantaged account like an IRA or 401k where interest payments aren't taxed. The target market is high net worth high income individuals with money in taxable accounts that want a safe-ish income stream and can take advantage of the tax benefits.
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Mar 10, 2023 16:55
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Shear Modulus posted:De-globalization is in fact happening right now. The energy market, which used to be the most fungible and global commodity market, is now split into two markets. Russia being cut out of the SWIFT network means that they are developing their own alternative that will likely be tightly integrated with Chinese finance. The US just leaned on the netherlands to slap an export ban on the latest chip lithography technology to china, so now companies can't expand their chinese fabs with those new machines even if they wanted to.
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Mar 10, 2023 17:42
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SVB has been closed by the FDIC. https://www.fdic.gov/news/press-releases/2023/pr23016.html
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Mar 10, 2023 17:51
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Looks like I may have caught the morning trading knife at $5.58 SOFI curious to see if FDIC news moves it lower
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Mar 10, 2023 18:07
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