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Theres plenty of time between now and the draft for him to blow an ACL walking down some stairs or whatever, why would you take on an extra month of risk when you just sold the farm for the first pick?
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Mar 23, 2023 16:59
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Ornery and Hornery posted:Yeah the hawks typically have a pretty clear 40 time threshold for their top 100 wr picks and JSN doesn’t meet them, so who knows. He was totally outside of their usual line type, they always liked big mean maulers in the run game. Cross is totally different, he's a pass blocking technician. He was outside of type for them, but to their credit they went with the best lineman available. Carter is a bigger risk than expected but he legit may still be the best player in the draft and is at the team's greatest position of need. I wouldn't be surprised if they took him. Everyone else in that range just isn't as talented and isn't as good of a fit for their scheme
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Mar 23, 2023 17:01
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Docjowles posted:Maybe you could mail the dude your playbook and start talking Xs and Os in your "pre draft interviews" or whatever. But even if it's permitted that seems like a terrible idea because what if you change your mind? Great now some fuckin dude who isn't on your team has your playbook I think this part has happened a couple/few times when it was stupidly obvious what the pick was going to be. Normally I'd say Stroud doesn't fall into that category of completely can't miss, but you don't move what you moved to get up to #1 unless you already know who you're going after I wouldn't think.
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Mar 23, 2023 17:06
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Ornery and Hornery posted:The first ever draft pick of the PCJS era was a LT at 6th overall. That’s also the last time they had a pick that high until this year. I think then simple explanation is that their draft strategy is pretty close to BPA and they’ve been picking at the end of the first for a decade where the top tier OL are already gone. They’re more like to take the 1st or 2nd off ball LB on their board than the 5th tackle because they want the better player, irrespective of positions. The bigger issue is how terrible their actual evaluations have been of which players are actually good when they’ve had a first round pick at all. Coincidentally this is the first time in nearly a decade they’ve had a chance at a top tackle prospect. So as long as they’re bad enough to keep picking near the top of the 1st their o line may improve dramatically!
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Mar 23, 2023 17:11
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Docjowles posted:??? I don't have a rule in front of me to cite but I feel quite confident that it is not possible to sign a player from the draft class before the draft has happened. This makes zero sense. Also the league and all media companies would hate it, they need the drama for ads and clicks Signing picks before the draft used to be a thing, I’ve seen it mentioned in a few of the NFL Films/NFL Network “Caught in the Draft” shows about older ones. There was one year, it may have been the mid-70s or mid-80s, where the top 3 or 4 guys were already signed before the actual date of the draft. I vaguely recall it a few times in the 90s or early 00s with the top pick too. I suspect it’s something that just became less common as draft picks became more valuable and went away totally once the rookie contracts became set in 2012.
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Mar 23, 2023 17:21
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YOLOsubmarine posted:That’s also the last time they had a pick that high until this year. I think then simple explanation is that their draft strategy is pretty close to BPA and they’ve been picking at the end of the first for a decade where the top tier OL are already gone. They’re more like to take the 1st or 2nd off ball LB on their board than the 5th tackle because they want the better player, irrespective of positions. I think this is all accurate. Schneider has generally made sensible picks and has not traded back when picking high in the 1st. But they spent a long time foolishly trading away picks for players like Harvin and Adams and trading back to bolster draft capital when trying to extend the Russ window. Whatever the reason they had years of truly terrible drafts. Well, they have to nail this one. No pressure guys.
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Mar 23, 2023 17:21
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Yeah I think that’s a relatively fair explanation of their process. They’ve sucked at actual talent evaluation for a lot of their picks. Still fuming/lol’ing at the pick of Eskridge over Creed Humphrey. Luckily Pete will draft muscly Florida guard in the back half of the first and then thick necked Minnesota center in the second. Hawks will have a good OL for the first time since their SB run.
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Mar 23, 2023 17:28
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fartknocker posted:Signing picks before the draft used to be a thing, I’ve seen it mentioned in a few of the NFL Films/NFL Network “Caught in the Draft” shows about older ones. There was one year, it may have been the mid-70s or mid-80s, where the top 3 or 4 guys were already signed before the actual date of the draft. I vaguely recall it a few times in the 90s or early 00s with the top pick too. lol wtf. Did the teams just call each other up and say who they were going to draft? In a hypothetical where those guys weren't drafted by the team that signed them, what would happen? The contracts are voided? Hilarious lawsuits?
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Mar 23, 2023 17:31
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Docjowles posted:lol wtf. Did the teams just call each other up and say who they were going to draft? In a hypothetical where those guys weren't drafted by the team that signed them, what would happen? The contracts are voided? Hilarious lawsuits? All with the assumption that since they signed a guy they know they'd be hosed if they didnt actually use their pick on the guy so they didnt get fucky with it when the official draft came around.
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Mar 23, 2023 17:33
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Thought this was interesting although I'm not sure how much it carries over or what other variables are involved. Fields and Burrow still can't avoid sacks but Herbert is one of the best at it and he was sacked a ton in college. 
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Mar 23, 2023 17:33
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Diva Cupcake posted:Thought this was interesting although I'm not sure how much it carries over or what other variables are involved. Fields and Burrow still can't avoid sacks but Herbert is one of the best at it and he was sacked a ton in college. Herbert does not look to be the best at it based on this chart?
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Mar 23, 2023 17:37
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three posted:Herbert does not look to be the best at it based on this chart? Is it useful as a predictive stat where we can say Will Levis will continue to be sacked a ton in the NFL while Richardson, Young, and Stroud will be generally pretty good? I dunno. Diva Cupcake fucked around with this message at 17:41 on Mar 23, 2023 |
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Mar 23, 2023 17:39
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AAAAA! Real Muenster posted:I imagine it was public knowledge so when teamA with pick 1 signed QB1, teamB with pick 2 could go ahead and sign DT1, ect ect Yeah, I’d imagine it just made the actual pick announcement more of a formality, particularly if it was one of the older drafts when the TV/media side of things was much more of a side element. I’m almost positive it was from one of the Caught in the Draft specials, but I’m phone posting at work so I can’t check them out easily right now to confirm which year it was.
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Mar 23, 2023 17:45
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I know the Dolphins signed Jake Long before the 2008 draft at least, I think it finally did end when they put the rookie contracts in. https://www.espn.com/nfl/draft08/news/story?id=3358424
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Mar 23, 2023 17:58
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three posted:Herbert does not look to be the best at it based on this chart? The chart is data from college, not their time in the NFL. I don't know if a comparable chart with NFL time exists.
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Mar 23, 2023 18:02
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No Butt Stuff posted:The chart is data from college, not their time in the NFL. I don't know if a comparable chart with NFL time exists. Oh. My bad. I thought it was just last year stats regardless of level.
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Mar 23, 2023 18:16
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I see that Joe Burrow and Justin Fields also got sacked a lot in college
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Mar 23, 2023 18:32
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Obvious thing was obvious https://twitter.com/AlbertBreer/status/1638952311413194752
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Mar 23, 2023 18:37
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I feel like Burrow is actually pretty good at scrambling and avoiding sacks, he just gets pressured like on 80% of his dropbacks.
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Mar 23, 2023 18:40
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He was the fourth most-sacked QB though and I keep hearing how good his processing speed is so his line just must be absolute trash his entire career
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Mar 23, 2023 18:57
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kiimo posted:He was the fourth most-sacked QB though and I keep hearing how good his processing speed is so his line just must be absolute trash his entire career It has been. Their offense is also a lot more downfield oriented than the poo poo Lombardi had Herbert doing in LA. Burrow lead the league in yards per attempt in 2021 by .4 yards and was 1.4 yards above Herbert. He was simply taking more downfield shots which require holding the ball longer. That number dropped this year because he got the ball out quicker and so he also took fewer sacks, at least until the line started disintegrating at the end of the season. Herbert’s YPA numbers in 2022 were among the lowest in the league because they were trying to protect his ribs. Everything was dumpoffs to Ekeler and slants. They were specifically trying to keep him from getting hit and it worked, at the expense of the offense basically abandoning anytbing downfield. Burrow’s processing is pretty good but he also like to look for the big shot, similar to Stafford in that regard, and that leads to him taking more hits. But a portion of the difference is also just down to very different offensive philosophies with LA running the same short-intermediate stuff that Payton was doing with Brees for years.
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Mar 23, 2023 19:06
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YOLOsubmarine posted:Herbert’s YPA numbers in 2022 were among the lowest in the league because they were trying to protect his ribs. Everything was dumpoffs to Ekeler and slants. They were specifically trying to keep him from getting hit and it worked, at the expense of the offense basically abandoning anytbing downfield. I think it was less about protecting Herbert and more that Lombardi is a coward.
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Mar 23, 2023 19:30
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Sataere posted:I think it was less about protecting Herbert and more that Lombardi is a coward. He is, but it was especially pronounced this year.
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Mar 23, 2023 19:36
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YOLOsubmarine posted:Herbert’s YPA numbers in 2022 were among the lowest in the league because they were trying to protect his ribs. Everything was dumpoffs to Ekeler and slants. They were specifically trying to keep him from getting hit and it worked, at the expense of the offense basically abandoning anytbing downfield. hey, it's just like the Cristobal years!
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Mar 23, 2023 19:40
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Was trying to find the clip of Burrow in last year’s afccg where he avoided a sack and then mystically stepped out of another one at the precise right time while not even looking at the defender but alas google is a chiefs fan and heavily weighing results to this year’s
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Mar 23, 2023 20:09
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Pontius Pilate posted:Was trying to find the clip of Burrow in last year’s afccg where he avoided a sack and then mystically stepped out of another one at the precise right time while not even looking at the defender but alas google is a chiefs fan and heavily weighing results to this year’s Somewhere in here? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9TZHCY6ceUE Yeah that was annoying to google even including the year and specific date.
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Mar 23, 2023 20:48
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https://twitter.com/GreggDoyelStar/status/1638898138751684608
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Mar 23, 2023 21:15
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Ballard has a longer leash than we though I guess
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Mar 23, 2023 21:18
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Dropping a bomb like that to link to a paywall
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Mar 23, 2023 21:18
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I wouldn't read too much into that, it's purely Doyel's speculation based on the Colts not trading up to 1. Though I would say it's a more likely scenario than them trading up to 3. Probably only happens if some other team leapfrogs them to 3 and takes Richardson though. As for Ballard's leash I do think it's longer than a lot of people would've guessed. All he really needs to do this year is get some QB on the roster that the fanbase can attach to as a potential future franchise guy.
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Mar 23, 2023 21:32
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2023 NFL Draft Thread: Brilliant, really
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Mar 23, 2023 21:37
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Imagine cooking up a prediction and then calling it brilliant, really
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Mar 23, 2023 21:42
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Diva Cupcake posted:Maybe I worded it poorly. Herbert is one of the best in the NFL at it, while his college sack avoidance was poor. Other QBs like Fields and Burrow their college avoidance has generally carried over to the next level. I more or less ignore Herbert when trying to think about how to evaluate players. He's just so unusual in how good he is and how much he flawlessly eliminated a bunch of his college weaknesses over the course of one covid interrupted offseason
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Mar 23, 2023 22:28
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ShakeZula posted:I wouldn't read too much into that, it's purely Doyel's speculation based on the Colts not trading up to 1. Though I would say it's a more likely scenario than them trading up to 3. Probably only happens if some other team leapfrogs them to 3 and takes Richardson though. Yeah, they only trade up in Stroud is at 3. If Richardson is there at 4 they take him. If not, they either trade back or take BPA and look for Hooker later.
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Mar 23, 2023 22:52
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Grittybeard posted:Somewhere in here? Yup! Bit before 3:00 mark
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Mar 23, 2023 23:19
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I've been saying for weeks now I think Hooker is seen as a first rounder. Not super surprised someone is keen.
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Mar 24, 2023 00:27
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If Hooker hadn't gotten injured I think he would've passed Levis pretty easily in everyone's rankings
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Mar 24, 2023 00:43
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ShakeZula posted:If Hooker hadn't gotten injured I think he would've passed Levis pretty easily in everyone's rankings It really wouldn't surprise me if the day after the first round hooker is on a team and Levis is full on depression in the green room and we get the tweets and expose articles that a lot of teams had them ranked that way.
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Mar 24, 2023 00:49
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On the GM podcast on the athletic stream, the gm was saying he wouldn’t be surprised if besides Bryce/stroud they all fell later than expected. But others say maybe four in the top five? Should be a fun draft! And mostly because of that!
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Mar 24, 2023 01:00
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I could see a team trading up to get Hooker at the end of the first. Then you could pick up his 5th year option at age 30.
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Mar 24, 2023 01:17
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