Rev. Bleech_ posted:

account registered in Feb 2022, generic truck dude profile pic, literally only posts about one thing, contributes nothing to anyone

Popular Mechanics posted:

During the Cold War, Russia became the first nation to launch a satellite, and then a human being, into outer space. With more than 160 Russian satellites in orbit today, every Ukrainian city, tank, and howitzer should be exposed to the unrelenting gaze of orbital cameras.

But that’s not happening on the battlefield. While Ukraine’s military is reaping enormous benefits from commercial communications and photographic satellites, Russia is only getting meager rewards from its huge investment in military spacecraft, according to a Western expert.

“The Ukrainian army can use commercial systems to obtain images of any area in high detail at least twice a day in favorable weather conditions, whereas the Russian army can get an image of the same area approximately once in two weeks,” Pavel Luzin, a senior fellow at the Jamestown Foundation, wrote in a recent article for Riddle. In addition, “existing Russian satellites provide seriously inferior quality of imagery vis-à-vis American and European commercial satellites.”

GPS satellites have enabled Ukraine’s American-made HIMARS guided rockets to accurately target Russian supply depots and headquarters. SpaceX’s Starlink—which uses numerous low earth orbit satellites to provide connectivity through backpack-sized ground stations—became indispensable for Ukrainian military communications.

Yet despite a huge array of hypersonic and other guided missiles and smart bombs, Russia has not been able to conduct precision strikes. “Because of a lack of reconnaissance capability, Russia is not able to use its high-precision weapons in the planned way,” Luzin told Popular Mechanics. “That’s why Russia started its campaign of missile terror against the cities and civil population of Ukraine.”

The problem isn’t a lack of orbital hardware. Russia has more than 160 satellites in orbit, of which more than 100 are military systems, according to Luzin. These include 25 GLONASS GPS satellites, 47 communications satellites, seven Liana oceanic electronic reconnaissance satellites, two Persona optical reconnaissance satellites, as well as assorted missile detection, topographic mapping, and experimental spacecraft.

What Russia does lack is the right mix of satellites, as well as the ground systems and procedures to receive and disseminate data to those who need it. For example, the Liana spacecraft are designed to track ships. But Russia has always been a land rather than a naval power, and being able to track U.S. aircraft carriers in the Pacific doesn’t help win a ground war in Ukraine.

Realizing that it was falling behind in the new Space Race, Russia opted in the early 2000s not to build spy satellites. “The Kremlin decided to start with the satellite navigation system GLONASS and communication satellites that rely on Western space electronic components,” Luzin said. “The reconnaissance satellites were the much harder task for the Russian space industry, and it turned to this task just in the early 2010s.”

But the imposition of Western sanctions after the 2014 annexation of Crimea hampered investment in reconnaissance systems. The result is that Russia has just two optical intelligence (photographic) satellites in orbit now. Two new Resurs satellites have been delayed until at least 2024, while three Russian commercial satellites—which could be used for military imagery—may no longer be functional.

While the exact number of U.S. spy satellites is classified, the National Reconnaissance Office planned at least seven launches in 2022. The agency is now contracting with commercial companies for hyperspectral satellite imagery that can detect objects through multiple bands of light.

It isn’t just satellites that are the problem. Troops lack satellite communications terminals, which only exacerbates the Russian military’s rigid and compartmentalized command system. While the GLONASS GPS satellites work, users lack terminals and electronic maps to utilize satellite navigation.

In 2020, Luzin estimated that Russia was spending $1.6 billion per year on its military space program. Yet funding for future Russian satellites is uncertain. The Ukraine war will divert resources to tanks and missiles. Meanwhile, Western sanctions will deprive Russian spacecraft of sophisticated components.

Nor is turning to commercial satellites—as Ukraine successfully did—an option. “Russia’s political economy model makes private efforts in outer space just impossible,” Luzin said. “Private business and technology initiatives are considered political threats.”

The West can also take steps to prevent the revival of Russia’s military space program. “It is necessary to prevent Russia’s access not only to space-grade electronics, but also advanced industrial equipment,” said Luzin. “Also to commercial satellite services using rogue firms in Asia and Europe.”

As one of the two original spacefaring nations, it is not realistic to assume that Russian satellites will disappear from the heavens. But the glory days of Sputnik and Soyuz seem to be gone.

“I don’t think Russia is capable of developing its military space capabilities now,” Luzin said.

quote:

“I don’t think Russia is capable of developing its military space capabilities now,”

Taerkar posted:

This isn't quite as outlandish as you might think. The UK was a not-quite-ally of Japan and had been building ships for the Japanese for a number of years. It wasn't impossible that Japan could have commissioned torpedo boats from British shipyards and had crews there to take command of them.

Helsingin Sanomat posted:

Finland is an exceptional new Nato country: "we are prepared for all out war"
According to a researcher, Finland is a bigger military power than its size indicates

Finland's national defence will be strengthened as the Nato application left in last May is about to be blessed, with Turkey's parliament being the last Nato country to approve Finland's application.

The law approved by Turkey's parliament still requires president Recep Tayyip Erdogan's signature, after which the ratification documents will be sent to Washington and Finland's flag will go up the pole at Nato headquarters in Brussels.

At the same time the union of the existing 30 member countries will be strengthened significantly. Finland, who have kept up their so called "Nato option" for 28 years, and have prepared for a Russian attack for decades, is an obviously welcome partner for Nato.

"Finland is a unique new Nato member in that we have constantly been preparing for an all out war", says researcher Jyri Lavikainen at the Institute of Foreign Policy. "Nato has faced the same threat since 1945, but since the 1990s the organization has emphasized its role as crisis management."

"In Finland our national defence has been maintained all the time systematically, and since the Cold War and its limitations ended, we have acquired precisely the kind of weaponry the war in Ukraine has proven to be necessary", Lavikainen continues. "Finland is militarily bigger than it's size."

Finland has relatively few professional soldiers, but our war time reserve of 260 000 soldiers is large in the European scale. According to its last reports, our field artillery operates 1690 guns, rocket launchers or heavy mortars, which makes our field artillery the biggest in Western Europe.

The air force's F-35 purchase increased Finland's military spending in our 2022 budget to 2,2% of our GNP, when Nato's requirement is two percent.

Of the current member countries only seven can beat this. "It's not just about a large reserve, a modern air force or a strong artillery corps, but a culture of waging war", Lavikainen says. "We can arm our strong reserve, and we have trained it."

Finland's annual military spending of 5 or 6 billion EUR is only about 1/200 of the Nato countries' combined military spending. In 2021 the United States had a defense budget of 811 billion dollars, or roughly 70% of the military union's combined budgets, say Nato's statistics.

Direct Nato payments and fees don't give the full picture, because the alliance's defense is based on the national armed forces of its members.

Finnish officers have repeated the term "Nato compatibility" in all possible military purchases since the 90s, but in the end the Finnish Defence Forces' efforts might not be decisive from a Nato perspective.

Along with Finland's membership, Nato gets (including sea borders) 1344 kilometers of new border directly against Russia. Before this, including Lithuania's and Poland's borders at Kaliningrad, a combined 1140 kilometers of shared border space with Russia. Is the extension of this shared border a good thing or bad?

"Depends on how you look at it", Lavikainen says. "We have taken care of our own defense. And Russia has never built proper military infrastructure on the Finnish border. At Raatteentie we all saw what happens, when a military column tries to advance along a forest road."

During the Winter War, the Soviet 163. division was strengthened in January 1940 by the 44th Ukrainian Elite Division, and both were destroyed at Raatteentie.

The commander of the Ukrainian forces, Aleksei Vinogradov (born in Tver, North West of Moscow) was executed for this by order of dictator Josef Stalin on the 11th of January 1940, at Uhtua, about 5 kilometers east of the current border.

Indeed, currently there aren't too many Russian forces beyond the current border. In Kamenka, at Uudenkirkko's Kaukjärvi, resides the 138th Infantry Brigade, who took part last February in the failed attempt to take over Kiyv. The next base going north is as far as Alakurtti, at Salla's height. Why so?

"I think it's a question of priorities and resources", Lavikainen estimates. "They consider their military placements holistically, and troops had been concentrated near Ukraine, the Caucasus and south of St. Petersburg even before the invasion in Ukraine."

"For instance at the Chinese border they have practically nothing, even though the Russians probably don't have any misguided fantasies about that, and certainly aren't naive. They just don't have endless resources."

The Finnish Defence Forces' efforts, and our tax payers' contributions to national defence aren't the be all, end all, however.

"Finland is important to Nato simply by existing", Lavikainen points out. "Russia will have a tough time planning operations in the Baltic, for instance, without considering what Estonia's ally to the north might be up to."

"Northern Europe's defence will be organized in a whole new way after Finland's Nato membership. What that way is, is probably still finding its final form, but it will certainly include aspects that weren't possible prior to this."

The talk of combined Nordic air forces is a good example of this new way of thinking, says Lavikainen. "Or consider military exercises in the Cap of the North, where Norwegian forces will be able to just move over to Finland's side, and they will be able to be supplied from Finland, when national borders don't matter."

Finland's Nato joy won't be complete, until Sweden is also in the military alliance. From Nato's perspective a united north and control over the Baltic Sea are crucial, much like southern Sweden is for defending the Baltics. From Finland's perspective Sweden is an important partner simply due to supply routes. Sweden's strong military industry also complements Finland's reservist army very well.

Other than this, Sweden's defence policies don't get a very high grade from Lavikainen.

"Their defence policies have been completely misguided, particularly giving up on conscription in 2009, right after the war in Georgia. That was pure blindness! Now they are rebuilding their defence capabilities, but that will take years. It's easier to break down than to build up."

The partnership with Sweden is regardless crucial for Finland.

"Getting Sweden into Nato will be Finland's first job after joining the alliance", Lavikainen says.

Pekka Hakala posted:

"Northern Europe's defence will be organized in a whole new way after Finland's Nato membership. What that way is, is probably still finding its final form, but it will certainly include aspects that weren't possible prior to this."

mobby_6kl posted:

Speaking of Finland, apparently that's the flag and logo of the Air Force lol. Seems like it pre-dates the nazis but it's not great optics and I'm sure the usual suspects will suddenly find it very alarming

zone posted:

https://twitter.com/Flash_news_ua/status/1642103356851122176
Ukraine purchased 100 APCs from Poland.

mobby_6kl posted:

Speaking of Finland, apparently that's the flag and logo of the Air Force lol. Seems like it pre-dates the nazis but it's not great optics and I'm sure the usual suspects will suddenly find it very alarming

mobby_6kl posted:

Speaking of Finland, apparently that's the flag and logo of the Air Force lol. Seems like it pre-dates the nazis but it's not great optics and I'm sure the usual suspects will suddenly find it very alarming

Carth Dookie posted:

IMO this is the kind of thing you just change to something more modern so you don't have to keep explaining 'w-helll arktuallllyyyyy...' every time someone asks about it.

mobby_6kl posted:

Speaking of Finland, apparently that's the flag and logo of the Air Force lol. Seems like it pre-dates the nazis but it's not great optics and I'm sure the usual suspects will suddenly find it very alarming

zone posted:

https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1642054869447049216
British intelligence update dropped.

Yle posted:

Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan has certified the parliament's decision to ratify Finland's Nato membership. The law on ratification was published in Turkey's official national paper.


Image capture from Turkey's official national paper on 1.4.2023

The Turkish parliament decided late on Thursday to ratify Finland's Nato membership. After the president confirmed the decision, Finland's Nato approval has been finalized as far as Turkey is concerned.

President Erdogan had 15 days to certify the parliament's decision. The process proceeded quickly, because for instance in 2020 the ratification of Northern Macedonia's membership took two weeks from the parliament's decision.

Turkey still need to deliver the ratifying paperwork to Washington.

Karate Bastard posted:

Tricking Finland into hulking the gently caress out as a joke

StoryTime posted:

Shaman Tank Spec posted:

So you're saying I should NOT go invade Russia at this second?

zone posted:

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1641818293907406849
Another case of incompetence being rewarded.

Roblo posted:

Is that the guy that did a live video showing where a load of troops were and got them a special HIMARS visit?

Shaman Tank Spec posted:

Helsingin Sanomat, Finland's biggest newspaper, interviewed a researcher at our Institute of Foreign Policy about what Finland joining Nato means for Finland, and for Nato.

Author: Pekka Hakala
Link: HS.fi

Carth Dookie posted:

IMO this is the kind of thing you just change to something more modern so you don't have to keep explaining 'w-helll arktuallllyyyyy...' every time someone asks about it.

you can't fool me, that's the APC straight out of the Aliens movie.


For real though that thing has the very nice 30mm busmaster gun on it (possibly/probably with thermal sights) and its service record on the wiki at least says that it has survived RPG shots so that looks like a decent bit of it.

Karate Bastard posted:

It's probably time for Finland to reveal the results of its hidden nuke program.


e: maybe on Tuesday

free hubcaps posted:

I'm curious if the addition of Finland to the alliance will actually somewhat undermine the geostrategic importance of Turkey to NATO

steinrokkan posted:

Why would it?