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SpartanIvy posted:I think the 1,400 number may be of all inventory which includes a lot of older homes which trend way smaller. I don't think so, because... GlyphGryph posted:If I recall correctly from last time I dug through the numbers, we were down from 40% of new housing construction being in the started home size range (<1400 sq ft) to about 5% in the late 2010s. I do wonder what those numbers look like now.
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May 17, 2023 20:58
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LanceHunter posted:I don't think so, because... Old houses were new construction at some point.
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May 17, 2023 21:05
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my house is relatively new and is about 14-1600 sqft. I live in an urban area though so weird suburban McMansions are prohibitively expensive
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May 17, 2023 23:31
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Looked up the source to answer that question, it's Bureau of the Census (through a report written by Freddie Mac) and it is specifically about single family homes. No duplexes or condos Also I was slightly wrong, it was 7% at the end of the 2010s, it didn't fall to 5% until the beginning of the 2020s.
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May 18, 2023 14:30
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https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/overexposed-us-regional-banks-could-sell-commercial-property-loans-2023-05-17/ | https://archive.is/Ceandquote:regional lenders may have to consider selling off commercial real estate (CRE) loans at a steep discount after breaching key regulatory thresholds for exposure to the troubled sector, A quick glance at St Louis fed shows about 10% delinquency rate in the early 1990s coasting down to about 1% right before 2007, and has been under 2% since 2014. Most recent peak was 8.9% in 2010 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DRCRELEXFACBS 
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May 18, 2023 18:04
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Hadlock posted:https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/overexposed-us-regional-banks-could-sell-commercial-property-loans-2023-05-17/ | https://archive.is/Ceand I'm not sure how any of this works. Just so I understand: * Banks with CRE or construction loans exceeding 100% or 300% of total assets receive greater scrutiny, according to 2006 guidance from the FDIC * That scrutiny will show some banks have a lot of risk, and should see to reduce that risk by selling risky assets. In this case the risky assets are CRE or construction loans. Is the idea that these banks take a for sure loss now in order to prevent the possibility of a much worse loss later? I thought commercial real estate was priced based on loans in the area, wouldn't this turn all CRE loans in areas where banks are forced to sell off, into bad loans? Who is buying the "we are forced to sell because of risk" loans for anything other than a price that would tank the market?
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May 18, 2023 19:05
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Boot and Rally posted:wouldn't this turn all CRE loans in areas where banks are forced to sell off, into bad loans? Who is buying the "we are forced to sell because of risk" loans for anything other than a price that would tank the market? yes residential is different, you have to live somewhere, and most people generally like living in the house they paid $a-lot for. Commercial real estate is sitting at, depending on the market, about 20% vacant even in high demand areas like downtown $major-city with no relief in sight. I'm not sure what the various "downturn reserve" most CRE companies plan for is, but my guess is 3 years of sustained losses is about what they plan for, before they start shedding properties and handing them back to the bank in lieu of payment. I think the general feeling/hope was that eventually companies would be able to coax people back into the office but even WSJ is reporting that "Return to office" has stalled out https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-return-to-the-office-has-stalled-e0af9741 | https://archive.is/tqJJp quote:The number of companies that require employees to be in the office full time has actually declined to 42%, from 49% three months ago, Scoop said. Employees at companies with hybrid strategies work an average of 2.5 days a week in the office. further edit: San Francisco recently (2 days ago) announced they were going to be extending parking meter hours to help drum up revenue. I think not because the meters drive revenue, but the tickets do most of the heavy lifting. Increasing meter hours seems like a pretty desperate attempt, but the city is looking at a $200mm/year shortfall in 2024 Hadlock posted:Breaking: SF to tackle $130 million budget crisis by extending parking meter hours Hadlock fucked around with this message at 19:16 on May 18, 2023 |
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May 18, 2023 19:08
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That'll encourage more people to go out
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May 18, 2023 21:26
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quote:Frustration is growing in cities that are suffering from declining real-estate values, setting the stage for lower property-tax revenues and pressuring bars, restaurants and other small businesses that rely on five-day-a-week office workers. In New York, each employee working at home rather than going into the office costs city businesses about $4,600 in sales annually, Does that mean that commuting costs each employee more than $4,600 a year? Because they seem to be claiming that's how much they spend at city business, so add on gas, vehicle maintenance and other transportation costs to start getting close to how much people save by working from home?
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May 19, 2023 04:00
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LLSix posted:Does that mean that commuting costs each employee more than $4,600 a year? Because they seem to be claiming that's how much they spend at city business, so add on gas, vehicle maintenance and other transportation costs to start getting close to how much people save by working from home? That math only works if you assume that the person who is now working from home is spending $0 on things like lunch, drinks after work, etc. Companies like DoorDash are thriving now because they are picking up a lot of this spending that would otherwise go to urban businesses. Commuting costs are entirely separate, and while there are places that claim the average cost is much higher (like this article claiming the average cost is $8466 a year), if you break down the numbers you see that the majority of their calculation ($5,190 of the $8,466) relies on opportunity cost from lost time rather than actual money spent on gas/vehicle maintenance/etc.
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May 19, 2023 08:54
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LanceHunter posted:That math only works if you assume that the person who is now working from home is spending $0 on things like lunch, drinks after work, etc. Companies like DoorDash are thriving now because they are picking up a lot of this spending that would otherwise go to urban businesses. My apartment building has a small little make to order sandwich and coffee shop on the ground floor. Historically one would open, last about nine months, close, and then a few months later someone would try again. There were too many apartments and not enough offices on the block to sustain them. Since work from home they've been thriving because all the wfh folks are going there instead of places near where their office used to be.
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May 19, 2023 12:40
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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-05-19/the-best-workplaces-for-pet-owners-offer-pet-insurance-and-pawternity-leave "The Best Pet Workplaces Offer Bereavement and Pawternity Leave A 12-hour conference was held in Los Angeles on Thursday that gathered the nation’s top thought leaders in the emerging field of employee pet benefits." fed's gotta hike
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May 19, 2023 23:26
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pmchem posted:fed's gotta hike quote:Andres Traslavania, head of executive search at Whole Foods Inc., bragged that his offices not only allow pets but instituted Furry Fridays 
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May 19, 2023 23:46
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pmchem posted:https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-05-19/the-best-workplaces-for-pet-owners-offer-pet-insurance-and-pawternity-leave You aren’t getting a raise that even keeps up with inflation this year, but you can bring your dog in to poo poo everywhere on Fridays.
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May 20, 2023 06:00
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MickeyFinn posted:You aren’t getting a raise that even keeps up with inflation this year, but you can bring your dog in to poo poo everywhere on Fridays. There was a dog in my 2nd round panel interview for a leadership role last week.
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May 20, 2023 08:08
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pseudanonymous posted:There was a dog in my 2nd round panel interview for a leadership role last week. What better judge of character is there?
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May 20, 2023 17:22
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Hadlock posted:rules: Can you speak more to #3 please? I mean that sincerely, I'm trying to gauge.
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May 20, 2023 17:23
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Mostly wishing for the collapse of more banks, or something along those lines If you want to discuss Potential dedollarization, pros and cons of the gold standard China taking over the south china sea and what effect that might have on global chip supply Commercial real estate debt and it's impact on banks balance sheets Russia invading ukraine and destabilizing egypt's wheat supplies Which are all pretty negative subjects, but not "the global economic collapse will be precipitated on this event" Those are fine. If you want to post a tweet about JP Morgan Chase's record quarterly profits with a  emoji or empty quote it saying BLOOD; this is not the right thread for that
Hadlock fucked around with this message at 18:40 on May 20, 2023 |
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May 20, 2023 18:32
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Ornery and Hornery posted:Can you speak more to #3 please? I mean that sincerely, I'm trying to gauge. so hadlock gave his take (thanks for editing to be more concise, by the way, hadlock...). as the person who has to click buttons when needed, I'll give a short answer: 1. naturally it's a judgment call, and as part of that prior posts and value of the post in question would be considered, like any other post that gets reported 2. there's a lot of people (worldwide, not talking SA in particular) who are all "nothing matters" or "everything is rigged forever" or are exceedingly fatalistic and just think the world is quickly headed for civil/nuclear war or climate armageddon or total financial collapse or whatever existential crisis can be dreamed up. "doomer" posting (as defined for the purposes of your question) focuses on those ideas while discounting any other view, contrary facts, or simply the idea that the world might just continue along generally okay. this thread is not intended for that audience. there are plenty of other outlets for it, so we're trying something different here. if you need further clarification or have a specific question please PM me so this does not become a big derail regarding posting about posting pmchem fucked around with this message at 18:58 on May 20, 2023 |
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May 20, 2023 18:56
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I have to say, I originally thought the no tweets rule was heavy handed but by god it's worked like a charm.
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May 22, 2023 16:27
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https://www.axios.com/2023/05/18/once-a-fringe-theory-greedflation-gets-its-due
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May 23, 2023 14:03
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For some extremely tenuous definition of "gets its due". Aside from being a barely coherent list of bullet points, even the article's own summary is just the biggest wet fart... quote:The bottom line: Though there's nothing like consensus on the topic, "the discussion has widened," Claudia Sahm, a former Fed economist, tells Axios.
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May 23, 2023 16:18
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"companies want more money" well duh. That's always been the case. "Why are companies able to charge more now without fear of pricing out their customers or a competitor pricing them out of the market" is the actual question. The first thing has literally always been true and its not interesting at all. The 2nd piece is what actually is causing inflation.
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May 23, 2023 16:30
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LanceHunter posted:For some extremely tenuous definition of "gets its due". Aside from being a barely coherent list of bullet points, even the article's own summary is just the biggest wet fart... I was going to say that I think its just mass media that bought into wages being the only driver in the "wage-price spiral", even though the theory is that price increases also drive wage inflation. The theory doesn't say anything about what is the bigger driver or anything, just that they drive each other. But I guess "grubby employees always asking for more money" is pretty well ensconced in our general culture. All the pressure seems to be to hold the line on wages, and not a lot of shaming the other direction. Making it your patriotic duty to not give anyone a raise this year, lol.
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May 23, 2023 16:36
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Fed only started raising rates once wages started inching up. Which says alot about what they actually care about. Overton window still remains focused on wages, which is completely deliberate.
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May 24, 2023 13:53
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Uh, wages can cause inflation but it's not the sole driver by any means nor do I suspect it is anywhere near the fed focus for decisions on economic policy. Corporate intentional inflation of price will obviously cause inflation.
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May 24, 2023 14:01
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So….what’s the take on the current pending US default ?
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May 24, 2023 14:24
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Duckman2008 posted:So….what’s the take on the current pending US default ? Well the first thing is that it's pretty unlikely the US will default. The last time that Congress failed to raise the debt ceiling, the US did not default.
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May 24, 2023 14:36
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Maybe they’ll do the trillion dollar coin thing that one seemed fun.
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May 24, 2023 15:11
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It would be nice if we didn't have a debt ceiling that has to get constantly approved
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May 24, 2023 17:18
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pseudanonymous posted:Maybe they’ll do the trillion dollar coin thing that one seemed fun. Will we get people thinking that the trillion dollar coin would have to be the size of the moon again, or do enough people now know what "fiat currency" is?
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May 24, 2023 18:08
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Duckman2008 posted:So….what’s the take on the current pending US default ? As already reported... see also: Dedollarization The economy is well acquainted with US political brinkmanship. The whole thing has the patina of political theater and I'd expect anyone in the know to call the bluff. I'd be surprised to see any kind of race to the exits on treasuries that couldn't be explained by unrelated factors. Magnetic North posted:Will we get people thinking that the trillion dollar coin would have to be the size of the moon again, or do enough people now know what "fiat currency" is? Do they know what fiat currency is? Yes. Are they right? Ehhhhhhhhhhh... It's not really a complicated topic, but boy howdy do people have some interesting takes about it.
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May 24, 2023 19:40
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Warmachine posted:As already reported... see also: Dedollarization I was listening to NPR up first podcast yesterday and was just stunned that 1) they managed to fill up 7.5 minutes of airspace in a 15 minute podcast talking about the debt ceiling in 2023 and 2) the guy they were interviewing about it was just absolutely bored out of his skull speculating on "what ifs" that will never happen, the host was really trying to coax him to say anything on the topic because it's just such a beat to death topic. It's worth talking about, but it probably doesn't warrant more than 90 seconds of air time unless the government actually shuts down We should really start a economics tropes website. I just can't figure out what to name it I think the main function of debt talks now is it prevents the president from doing any kind of diplomacy. Biden had to cancel a ~10 county se Asia whistle stop tour which has tremendous benefits, to sit in a room and talk about the budget. McCarthy gets to tie down Biden in Washington for three weeks immediately after G7, that's a loving power move. Basically stabbed democrat international relations in the region in the face for the next two years, maybe longer Hadlock fucked around with this message at 19:55 on May 24, 2023 |
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May 24, 2023 19:53
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Hadlock posted:I was listening to NPR up first podcast yesterday and was just stunned that 1) they managed to fill up 7.5 minutes of airspace in a 15 minute podcast talking about the debt ceiling in 2023 and 2) the guy they were interviewing about it was just absolutely bored out of his skull speculating on "what ifs" that will never happen, the host was really trying to coax him to say anything on the topic because it's just such a beat to death topic. It's worth talking about, but it probably doesn't warrant more than 90 seconds of air time unless the government actually shuts down Oh, that's easy. Economics is a Flat Circle
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May 24, 2023 20:42
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In finance there's this notion of a tail risk, which is a very unlikely event that has a big negative payoff. The expected loss due to any tail risk is low because it's very likely to be zero, but conditional on it being non-zero, it's a lot larger. You have to hedge those because while any particular event is unlikely to happen, you're going to be exposed to a lot of them over the course of a career, and that means the chance of eventually getting hit with one of them is pretty high. Those are the sort of thoughts that are happening on Wall Street right now. It's pretty unlikely that the US will default, but there's no guarantee, and no one wants to be totally exposed if it does.
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May 24, 2023 22:23
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Terry Pratchett put that in his Discworld books as "million to one chances crop up nine times out of ten" and it's very wise. It is, of course, why we buy insurance. It is very unlikely I will ever smash into a ferrarri and total it or take out a minivan full of people and they all need expensive surgery, but if I did and I was underinsured, I might lose my life savings. So I pay a bit extra for a lot more coverage. However, we are very very bad at understanding the differences between very small or very large numbers, and numbers that are orders of magnitude smaller or larger. The odds that a person will be in an expensive car crash are vastly higher than the odds that they will win the jackpot in the lottery, and yet a lot of underinsured people buy lottery tickets, and specifically do so only when the jackpot is huge. I think the debt ceiling thing is like that. We have all seen that the odds the government will gently caress something up randomly are high; and the odds that they'll gently caress up badly enough that we plunge into a recession are high enough that it seems to happen a handful of times per lifetime. But that makes us overestimate the odds that the government will choose to willingly go bankrupt rather than borrow more money, especially when we're doing it with gutfeels. The debt ceiling was raised 74 times from March 1962 to May 2011, including 18 times under Ronald Reagan, eight times under Bill Clinton, and seven times under George W. Bush. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_United_States_debt_ceiling That doesn't mean we won't see congress gently caress things up and create serious consequences, though! quote:In 2011, Republicans in Congress used the debt ceiling as leverage for deficit reduction because of the lack of Congressional normal order for fiscal year budget votes on the chamber floors and subsequent conference reconciliations between the House and the Senate for final budgets. The credit downgrade and debt ceiling debacle contributed to the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 2,000 points in late July and August. Following the downgrade itself, the DJIA had one of its worst days in history and fell 635 points on August 8.[17] The GAO estimated that the delay in raising the debt ceiling raised borrowing costs for the government by $1.3 billion in 2011 and noted that the delay would also raise costs in later years. The Bipartisan Policy Center extended the GAO's estimates and found that the delay raised borrowing costs by $18.9 billion over ten year In 2013, quote:Members of the Republican Party in Congress opposed raising the debt ceiling, which had been routinely raised previously on a bipartisan basis without conditions, without additional spending cuts. They refused to raise the debt ceiling unless President Obama would have defunded the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare), his signature legislative achievement. The US Treasury began taking extraordinary measures to enable payments, and stated that it would delay payments if funds could not be raised through extraordinary measures, and the debt ceiling was not raised. During the crisis, approval ratings for the Republican Party declined. The crisis ended on October 17, 2013 with the passing of the Continuing Appropriations Act, 2014. We could still see lots of loving around and finding out, but there's not much call for trying to find an effective hedge for the apocalypse scenario in which, despite government branches shutting down, employees furloughed, social security and medicare payments suspended, etc. congress still refuses to raise the debt ceiling or the president refuses to sign a bill that does so with some cuts or whatever.
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May 24, 2023 22:53
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Leperflesh posted:
I had to check, S&P has maintained that downgrade, I thought they might have popped it back up at some point in the last 12 years. The fact that the "jewish space lasers" lady appears to be 2nd in command in the house of representatives makes things seem not nearly as guaranteed as they used to be. I'm wavering a bit here. 2011 went down to the day before treasury said that they would be out of money. This time it might actually go to the day of. Or they might even try to see if yellen is bluffing and can pull some more money out of her rear end. Btw, I don't think she has been definitive enough on the date. When she says "early june, maybe as early as June 1", I think some of these dumbasses interpret that as "we have until June 10 or 15 or so before something bad actually happens". I don't remember the treasury statements on the debt being as waffly in the past.
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May 25, 2023 06:57
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Baddog posted:Btw, I don't think she has been definitive enough on the date. When she says "early june, maybe as early as June 1", I think some of these dumbasses interpret that as "we have until June 10 or 15 or so before something bad actually happens". I don't remember the treasury statements on the debt being as waffly in the past. Aiui the treasury owes some huge lump sum payments the first week of June, mostly medicare and social security. At the same time, a number of counties in California and elsewhere have special August deadlines for paying 2022 taxes because of all the winter storm disasters. So it all depends on whether or not a bunch of taxes from wealthier parts of California come in soon or those people and businesses decide to take advantage of the 0% tax loans for a few more months.
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May 25, 2023 13:09
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Germany officially went into a recession; https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/euro-lower-as-germany-enters-recession-dollar-scales-2-month-peak/ar-AA1bFTIJ A bit surprised by this tbh, I had somewhat blithely assumed the worst of the economic disruption from Ukraine/covid was over.
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May 25, 2023 13:55
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According to FT, Germany's post-covid recovery has been pretty weak:
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May 25, 2023 15:38
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