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The Ukraine war and Russian sanctions hits Germany particularly hard. That hasn't passed so it's not super surprising they are still getting a ton of headwind on a recovery.
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May 25, 2023 15:46
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So, what happens to my I-Bonds if the US defaults?
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May 25, 2023 17:05
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Otis Reddit posted:So, what happens to my I-Bonds if the US defaults? The US will almost certainly not default and there are many actions short of default that can be taken. But I guess I’ll engage with the question because people will not shut the gently caress up about it. If we take Argentina as a guide eventually there will be some kind of restructuring settlement where you take a big haircut and then receive some kind of deferred terms of payment. Note that creditors don’t really have to be treated equally - Argentina made the IMF whole in 2005 but most debt holders took a haircut down to 30% of face. In the interim before a restructuring settlement your bonds will be basically valueless, but that’s irrelevant because I-Bonds don’t trade on the secondary market and the only way to liquidate them is back to the Treasury. I presume the treasury will stop liquidation of I-Bonds but regardless they will probably not pay you face if you choose to liquidate. So basically you hold on to them and then you wait and see what happens. If for whatever reason you are holding debt instruments of a country that’s in default just hold on to them if they’re relatively valueless. The worst thing that can happen is that they actually become valueless, but there’s some upside. There was a lot of trading of Argentine debt for this reason (at pennies on the dollar) because if you buy something for 15% of face and then get 30% of face you just made a shitload of money.
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May 25, 2023 17:48
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Baddog posted:I had to check, S&P has maintained that downgrade, I thought they might have popped it back up at some point in the last 12 years. yeah i've seen a fair number of republican house members publicly stating that they don't trust yellen's x-date and think there's either more time or more extreme extraordinary measures like preferential coupon payments that can be done. probably biden gives before this is an issue, but i worry that familiarity breeds carelessness. one of these days we're going to accidently dance off this cliff even though almost no one actually wants to
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May 25, 2023 18:31
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GhostofJohnMuir posted:yeah i've seen a fair number of republican house members publicly stating that they don't trust yellen's x-date and think there's either more time or more extreme extraordinary measures like preferential coupon payments that can be done. probably biden gives before this is an issue, but i worry that familiarity breeds carelessness. one of these days we're going to accidently dance off this cliff even though almost no one actually wants to If Yellen had come out and said "We cannot legally send the June 1 social security checks if the debt ceiling has not been raised before that date", it would properly light a fire under people's asses. Familiarity breeding carelessness definitely seems to be the big issue here. I think Biden was relying on the markets and the business community to properly freak out and starting to push their weight around. Unfortunately, too many people are convinced that it will never happen and so there is no freak out.
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May 25, 2023 19:06
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the debt limit is some completely made up poo poo that no one can track well, so people just read tea leaves and guess. the risk for republicans is if it goes on too long, people will find out there's no real limit in place and it's all theater
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May 25, 2023 19:07
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KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:Note that creditors don’t really have to be treated equally - Argentina made the IMF whole in 2005 but most debt holders took a haircut down to 30% of face. Notable exception was Elliot Management, who refused the haircut and instead seized an Argentine navy ship.
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May 26, 2023 15:10
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lifg posted:Notable exception was Elliot Management, who refused the haircut and instead seized an Argentine navy ship. drat, now I'm pushing for default. I've had my eye on the federal building in LA for a while.
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May 26, 2023 15:20
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KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:The US will almost certainly not default and there are many actions short of default that can be taken. But I guess I’ll engage with the question because people will not shut the gently caress up about it. Are there any historical precedents for defaults by governments that absolutely can pay their debts, but are just unable to in the short term due to bureacratic gridlock?
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May 26, 2023 15:36
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lifg posted:Notable exception was Elliot Management, who refused the haircut and instead seized an Argentine navy ship. I was expecting a modern naval destroyer, turns out it is the pride of the Argentine Navy  Pretty wild. I guess they own Evergreen, huge container shipping company that was in the news not long ago blocking the Suez canal, and have additional experience in shipping elsewhere so I guess seizing a naval boat is within their wheelhouse. That's a pretty big flex regardless
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May 26, 2023 15:37
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An interesting possibility I've heard, and easily the sloppiest possible solution (outside of the actual global nukes-are-flying economic crash), is that people holding US debt sue for damages. They would very clearly have standing and motivation to do so. Then the courts can decide if the debt ceiling violates the 14th amendment (it definitely does) and can order Treasury to keep selling debt to make its payments.
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May 26, 2023 15:55
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lifg posted:Notable exception was Elliot Management, who refused the haircut and instead seized an Argentine navy ship. lol I did not know this, that rules
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May 26, 2023 16:02
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LanceHunter posted:An interesting possibility I've heard, and easily the sloppiest possible solution (outside of the actual global nukes-are-flying economic crash), is that people holding US debt sue for damages. They would very clearly have standing and motivation to do so. Then the courts can decide if the debt ceiling violates the 14th amendment (it definitely does) and can order Treasury to keep selling debt to make its payments. It's not a matter of whether the debt ceiling violates the constitution, though. It's a matter of whether the current SCOTUS will say that.
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May 26, 2023 16:39
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ultrafilter posted:It's not a matter of whether the debt ceiling violates the constitution, though. It's a matter of whether the current SCOTUS will say that. I guess it depends on how many T-Bills are in Harlan Crow's portfolio...
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May 26, 2023 16:45
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Not sure if to post here or in the alternative CPU architectures thread but this is mighty interesting https://www.tomshardware.com/news/chinas-powerstar-cpu-seemingly-confirmed-as-intel-silicon-via-geekbench I'll just paraphrase because the article is poorly written Comet Lake is Intel's 2019 desktop/low end server CPU architecture. They release a very improved version every other year, with a small bump in the alternating years, their "tick tock" product strategy. It's on a 14nm Intel process which is in theory roughly equivalent to 8nm or 10nm TSMC process (no I don't know why but that's what I've heard) Geekbench is a website you can upload CPU benchmark scores from and CPUs are sometimes leaked there but as the article points out, clever people can upload bogus benchmarks so this isn't 100% verified information. With the photographs and supplemental data it's plausible though  Anyways this Chinese chip apparently benches identical to an i3 (so, dual core) comet Lake chip. That would imply
2019 isn't absolute bleeding edge but Intel is still manufacturing and selling 14nm process chips so, if true, this is probably a Pretty Big Deal and the article says they plan on selling 1.5mm chips annually starting next year. That might explain why the Biden administration hornet's nest has been buzzing so hard about China lately. Chinese Intel compatible 10th gen (comet Lake) chips 1) means the west has lost any CPU advantage over China 2) China is independent of the west for CPU in any kind of conflict, unlike Russia quote:Earlier evidence of the Powerstar / Intel Comet Lake similarities included the following: Hadlock fucked around with this message at 21:07 on May 26, 2023 |
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May 26, 2023 21:01
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It’s a PRC prestige project. There’s a non zero chance that Powerstar is buying Intel chips and slapping a new lid on them.
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May 26, 2023 21:05
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Hadlock posted:Not sure if to post here or in the alternative CPU architectures thread but this is mighty interesting The article says nothing about the chip being made on a Chinese 14nm node. The first paragraph, in fact, implies that Powerstar is somehow sourcing Intel silicon and slapping their own logo on it, which is a far cry from running a fab. Now, the ability to source parts in the face of an embargo is something, but that something isn't "Chinese manufacturing has copied Intels 14nm process."
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May 26, 2023 21:42
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KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:It’s a PRC prestige project. There’s a non zero chance that Powerstar is buying Intel chips and slapping a new lid on them. Seems far more likely than magic reverse engineering of intel's entire layout (which would be more effort than just designing a new chip by an order of magnitude or two and nothing even slightly close has even been done publicly). EDIT: I literally cannot explain how laughably implausible it would be to copy a modern CPU layout. Even if you stole a complete set of mask data, making it work on a new fab would basically entail designing the chip again, except with a lot more extra steps. big shtick energy fucked around with this message at 22:17 on May 26, 2023 |
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May 26, 2023 22:14
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Well that's considerably less exciting
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May 26, 2023 22:42
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New article by wall street journal. 
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May 27, 2023 19:15
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 CPI rent and Zillow rent estimate appear to track pretty closely. Of course they don't say if Zillow uses CPI data to influence their numbers Rent inflation up 8% this year https://wolfstreet.com/2023/05/22/r...tracked-by-cpi/
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May 27, 2023 19:50
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the chinese recipe for basically everything: force western leaders to have local factories/offices in china if they want to hope for sales growth in china, which execs can't resist: https://www.cnn.com/2018/12/15/business/boeing-china-factory-737/index.html steal their processes, IP, etc., and copy their poo poo with a slight riff on it: https://simpleflying.com/comac-c191-boeing-737/ produce domestic version which will eventually take all domestic market share from the western product: https://apnews.com/article/china-comac-c919-first-commercial-flight-6c2208ac5f1ed13e18a5b311f4d8e1ad
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May 28, 2023 15:13
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That’s the theory but the C919 is like the worst possible example to use considering it’s complete garbage that took forever to develop.
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May 28, 2023 15:26
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KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:That’s the theory but the C919 is like the worst possible example to use considering it’s complete garbage that took forever to develop. well, they were copying mid/late-2010s boeing, so
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May 28, 2023 15:27
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The Schwinn -> Giant bicycle story is a great example of that, except it was more of an unforced error on Schwinn’s part.
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May 28, 2023 17:27
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I'm not sure how long it's supposed to take to spin up a commercial airliner industry, but given that pretty much only Airbus/EU are the only other people to do so would imply it's a difficult task Supposedly Aeroflot built planes at some point but I've never seen one in person and I've been to a lot of air and space museums
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May 28, 2023 19:29
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Hadlock posted:I'm not sure how long it's supposed to take to spin up a commercial airliner industry, but given that pretty much only Airbus/EU are the only other people to do so would imply it's a difficult task Tupelov built a number of commercial airliners, including the first commercial supersonic aircraft, the horrifying Tu-144: wikipeida posted:Tu-144 pilot Aleksandr Larin remembers a troublesome flight around 25 January 1978. The flight with passengers suffered the failure of 22 to 24 onboard systems. Seven to eight systems failed before takeoff, but given the large number of foreign TV and radio journalists and also other foreign notables aboard the flight, it was decided to proceed with the flight to avoid the embarrassment of cancellation.
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May 28, 2023 19:50
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drk posted:Tupelov built a number of commercial airliners, including the first commercial supersonic aircraft, the horrifying Tu-144: That whole story is a rollercoaster ride
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May 29, 2023 02:37
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Even the first truly modern post Soviet airliner, the Sukhoi superjet, was not good and was in fact so bad it’s initial western operators ditched then or went bankrupt or both. And that’s with a very substantial head start on the Chinese.
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May 29, 2023 03:09
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what i've read about the debt ceiling deal so far indicates a very minimal departure from actual planned spending and revenue collection by biden/dems. some culture war fodder in there affecting very small dollar amounts but... basically no nominal discretionary budget cuts, minimal actual cuts to future IRS spending, entitlements/defense continue their upward path, etc. it seems like something dems would've agreed to even without all the drama, since FY22 discretionary spending as % of GDP is far above pre-pandemic levels. makes me wonder if the GOP is gonna take another swing at spending when appropriations bills come around.
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May 29, 2023 17:28
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pmchem posted:what i've read about the debt ceiling deal so far indicates a very minimal departure from actual planned spending and revenue collection by biden/dems. some culture war fodder in there affecting very small dollar amounts but... basically no nominal discretionary budget cuts, minimal actual cuts to future IRS spending, entitlements/defense continue their upward path, etc. it seems like something dems would've agreed to even without all the drama, since FY22 discretionary spending as % of GDP is far above pre-pandemic levels. makes me wonder if the GOP is gonna take another swing at spending when appropriations bills come around. Eh, the $20B the IRS is loosing isn't nothing, and my understanding is that it was specifically earmarked to help with their staffing woes. It's not the end of the world, but that agency is flailing and really needs to be properly funded. edit: The Republican talking point is that the money would have hired "an army of auditors." Setting aside that I don't think it was auditors (iirc it was fixing their hosed tech backend?) even if that was true I mean, yeah. . . . that's kinda the point. We have existing tax legislation, people need to pay their taxes, some people don't and this is how you find them and get them to pay their taxes. If you don't like that pass some legislation to decrease taxes but trying to gut the enforcement mechanism only helps the people who are under-paying to begin with. What I'm saying is the Republicans like criminals.
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May 29, 2023 17:34
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the IRS thing appears to be an agreement for future appropriations bills to cut $10b in fy24 and maintain that $10b cut in fy25 for a total of $20b but that's after an $80b rise (some of which went unspent this year) and the cuts are not gonna be in the text of this bill... so who knows, it could be totally undone in fy25. handshake deal on potential future cuts that would still equate to an overall $60b plus-up for IRS seems good, if your starting point is looking at their FY21 budget (pre-election-year). don't get me wrong, I'd wish for the full $80b because the IRS has been hosed for too long. but ironically for the purposes of this thread -- global economics -- slightly lower short-term tax collection will support world GDP
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May 29, 2023 17:44
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Cyrano4747 posted:Eh, the $20B the IRS is loosing isn't nothing, and my understanding is that it was specifically earmarked to help with their staffing woes. It's not the end of the world, but that agency is flailing and really needs to be properly funded. The Dems could run on "Republicans took the economy hostage to demand lower taxes for tax cheats" but they won't because they suck at their jobs (and also I stop doing a politics derail in this thread).
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May 29, 2023 18:13
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Cyrano4747 posted:Eh, the $20B the IRS is loosing isn't nothing, and my understanding is that it was specifically earmarked to help with their staffing woes. It's not the end of the world, but that agency is flailing and really needs to be properly funded. Giving the IRS funding to go after rich people is massively revenue positive. Like giving the IRS $1 means they collect like $9 in otherwise lost tax revenue. Separately I heard that blocking student loan forgiveness was part of the proposal from McCarthy, though I'm not sure how that works with the Supreme court case where I'm pretty confident they will find some tortured way to block it.
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May 29, 2023 18:44
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pseudanonymous posted:Giving the IRS funding to go after rich people is massively revenue positive. Like giving the IRS $1 means they collect like $9 in otherwise lost tax revenue. Defunding the IRS fairly directly increases the deficit for this reason, which is how you know anyone advocating for it is unserious about reducing government debt.
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May 29, 2023 19:04
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The primary goal was and still is and always will be, throwing around weight to show who is boss, so they can later make big claims about how strong and powerfully they owned the enemy. I'm just glad that we seem to be nearly past the point where people will keep asking what happens when the US "defaults" on its debts. Until the impending federal budget fights, which are going to be a revisiting of the same poo poo, just with "we fail to pass a budget" as the threat.
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May 31, 2023 19:52
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Leperflesh posted:The primary goal was and still is and always will be, throwing around weight to show who is boss, so they can later make big claims about how strong and powerfully they owned the enemy. my understanding of the debt ceiling compromise (which mccarthy seems to be having some difficulty whipping for) locks in the budget for the next two fiscal years, so we won't have to hear about budget fights until after the election
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May 31, 2023 20:27
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https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-65771669quote:The House of Representatives has approved a deal to allow the US to borrow more money, days before the world's biggest economy is due to start defaulting on its debt. Slow news week shifts from excruciatingly slow to glacial
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Jun 1, 2023 03:32
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May jobs report is out... The New York Times posted:U.S. employers added 339,000 jobs in May.
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Jun 2, 2023 14:24
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So this just happened This would imply Google has intentionally or unintentionally created a news topic called "societal collapse"  way to go, automated content curation system said the obvious part out loud about the real function of "journalism"LanceHunter posted:May jobs report is out... About half my friends just got new jobs in the last six months, checks out.
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Jun 2, 2023 21:36
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