|
Love Stole the Day posted:Another question about this: if the window you set with the short strangle is wide, then who on Earth will take the other side of those positions? Because if a bet goes bad, how can you expect to close the position? I don't see why anyone would take those potentially infinite amounts of loss off your hands. That part doesn't make any sense to me, but it makes sense otherwise. From your answer, it sounds like it's just a matter of waiting a couple days for someone to take your offer. quote:Bid x size $0.4300 x 1,023 The market maker will usually have a bid-ask spread to make money off of, but it's actually very rare that no offer at all is available unless the contract is extremely out of the money. Your broker also probably facilitates this to some degree as they would prefer you close out your options early to avoid exercise because having to assign shares you to is extra work. You see this with Fidelity where they'll waive the transaction fee if you're closing an option with a price under $0.65 and close to expiration.
|
#
?
Jul 10, 2023 21:14
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 9, 2024 11:40 |
|
|
After 2 years of selling cash secured puts today I finally dipped my toe into selling puts on margin. So far playing it absurdly safe and just selling what I could easily liquidate my t-bills to cover if assigned. A t-bill secured put if you will.
|
|
#
?
Jul 10, 2023 21:26
|
|
|
Subvisual Haze posted:After 2 years of selling cash secured puts today I finally dipped my toe into selling puts on margin. So far playing it absurdly safe and just selling what I could easily liquidate my t-bills to cover if assigned. A t-bill secured put if you will. It works until it doesn't. What tickers do you trade?
|
|
#
?
Jul 11, 2023 00:21
|
|
|
Subvisual Haze posted:A t-bill secured put if you will. new thread title
|
|
#
?
Jul 11, 2023 00:58
|
|
|
did birdman kill marvel films? birdman was released aug 27, 2014. there hasn't been a marvel movie that was both a megahit AND actually good released since then except thor: ragnarok. that's like 1 out of 22 marvel films since birdman. disney stock TOTAL return since birdman is a pathetic +6%: that includes divs.
|
|
#
?
Jul 11, 2023 01:13
|
|
|
I think there is just a saturation point. You can only watch so many of them before they feel the same IMO and I LOVED them and saw them all in theatres until around Guardians of the Galaxy 2. Now I don't watch any of them in theaters
|
|
#
?
Jul 11, 2023 01:17
|
|
|
I heard a rumour they released guardians of the galaxy 3 recently Was contemplating taking my getting close to 3 year old to go see into the spiderverse 2 but I think we'll watch #1 and see if she's into that Haven't been in a theater since Christmas 2019, haven't talked to any parents who are especially eager to set foot in one either
|
|
#
?
Jul 11, 2023 01:20
|
|
|
pmchem posted:did birdman kill marvel films? No Way Home was their last blockbuster success, and the first significant one since COVID IIRC. Their movies are too expensive to make and aren't performing well enough to justify making them, their parks are getting massive investment but can't increase capacity, Disney+ isn't doing as well as they hoped, and their Fox acquisition would have been a lot more beneficial if Comcast hadn't pushed the price so high and forced a worse deal on them. Plus, Comcast got Sky in the deal and another foothold in the UK market that Disney really wanted I think consumer trust in Disney as a whole brand is eroding and there's a lot of IP abuse leading toward apathy for another Star Wars or another [insert other Disney brand] movie It's Disney, so they're probably going to be able to land on their feet, but they haven't been making the greatest choices lately E: How could you forget about Infinity War and Endgame? Those printed money The Door Frame fucked around with this message at 15:19 on Jul 11, 2023 |
|
#
?
Jul 11, 2023 15:12
|
|
|
Spiderman is Sony
|
|
#
?
Jul 11, 2023 15:37
|
|
|
I can't remember how the Sony/Disney split goes on Spider-Man, but it was a movie produced by Marvel Studios
|
|
#
?
Jul 11, 2023 15:50
|
|
|
The Door Frame posted:E: How could you forget about Infinity War and Endgame? Those printed money So did the first Black Panther at least. The more recent Dr. Strange did pretty well too, no?
|
|
#
?
Jul 11, 2023 16:22
|
|
|
The FTC lost their Permanent Injunction case this morning against MSFT on the ATVI merger. ATVI stock up almost 10% on the news. Just have to see if MSFT will close around the CMA, or if they can negotiate a deal. MSFT has a UK appeal hearing on July 28th. EDIT: Appears the CMA has agreed to negotiate some kind of deal with MSFT. Have to see how that turns out with a remedy over the CMA's cloud gaming concerns. https://www.theverge.com/2023/7/11/23791149/microsoft-activision-blizzard-uk-regulators-cma-appeal nnnotime fucked around with this message at 17:06 on Jul 11, 2023 |
|
#
?
Jul 11, 2023 16:51
|
|
|
The ftc arguments against atvi were a complete clown show. Obviously running short on lawyers, with them opening a case against every acquisition out there. Can they please concentrate on Kroger's/Safeway, which is going to hurt an insane amount of consumers if it goes through? I like having at least one choice for standard-rear end groceries, not looking forward to either hitting the monopoly or going to Walmart. Or whole foods to buy a grapefruit seltzer and a macaron for $25. Instead they are bogged down with "omg playstation users might not have access to the coolest COD skins" or "Amazon buying the near-bankrupt original robot vacuum maker might slightly threaten the 100s of cheaper/better commodity robot vacuum makers".
|
|
#
?
Jul 11, 2023 17:11
|
|
|
Damnit, I missed out on RDFN today. I was looking at it because I saw the bump that zillow got premarket but then decided not to take it after the initial fade.
|
|
#
?
Jul 11, 2023 18:21
|
|
|
Baddog posted:
I dunno man, I dont want to put video games up there with groceries as far as importance goes but some of the stuff going on with video games over the last decade has been really bad. Video game companies have been pioneers in exploitative and anti-consumer practices over the past 15+ years and many of the practices they developed have gone on to become mainstream. Its definitely a space that needs more regulatory attention.
|
|
#
?
Jul 11, 2023 18:45
|
|
|
My dividends machine in RNW is being merged into its parent company. I’ll miss you 7 cents a share per month
|
|
#
?
Jul 12, 2023 01:59
|
|
|
DapperDraculaDeer posted:I dunno man, I dont want to put video games up there with groceries as far as importance goes but some of the stuff going on with video games over the last decade has been really bad. Video game companies have been pioneers in exploitative and anti-consumer practices over the past 15+ years and many of the practices they developed have gone on to become mainstream. Its definitely a space that needs more regulatory attention. This. Regulatory shittery spreads. Nothing stops Kotick from becoming CEO of Kroger/Safeway or something. If you want to preserve basic needs, then you have to preserve everything else.
|
|
#
?
Jul 12, 2023 14:07
|
|
|
The government only cares about potential monopolies when another company lobbies against it. The government's only concern about the activision deal was playstation potentially losing call of duty, so microsoft promising to not take away call of duty made the ftc's only concern moot to the judge. Walmart on the other hand probably doesn't mind the rest of the grocery industry being gobbled up by kroger because from walmart's point of view that'd mostly make it easier to set up a price cartel
|
|
#
?
Jul 12, 2023 16:35
|
|
|
I don't think anything kotick has done (taking the fun out of games) is on the table here. It's Microsoft's exclusives practices, which isn't really anything new. You can see this as trying to set precedent to go after all the other walled garden ecosystems. But if she wants to break up apple and Amazon and Google, get on that horse, gogogo. Don't try to stake all of that on the dumbest possible case. Hopefully they have their A team on Krogers. I know it's not as sexy as "going after big tech", but a monopoly on regular-rear end-groceries in many markets of the US is crazy. The plan seems to be to make them divest more stores, but the potential buyers are apparently whole foods and dollar general, lol. Something just isn't getting through.
|
|
#
?
Jul 12, 2023 17:10
|
|
|
Market very green today after the good CPI report. I ended up closing most of my Cash Secured Puts because they gained back >50% before earnings even reported.
|
|
#
?
Jul 12, 2023 17:49
|
|
|
The Door Frame posted:You're looking at it the wrong way, movies like this aren't worth the celluloid they used to be printed on. Sure, the Avengers grossed $1.5b worldwide, but it had a $230m budget and at least $150m in marketing, so that $1.5b doesn't end up being that big, especially after theaters and foreign markets take their share of the gross. The money is in the merch, and boy did Disney sell a lot of it The Door Frame posted:It dipped to the lowest since Covid this spring when I bought in, a couple months before the trailer, so I guess I got to enjoy a bit of that rebound. It basically amounted to a blind pick, but when the stock price goes from $20 today to ~$23 in 3 weeks, I'll be able to say that I got a tidy ~45% return on a hunch, and get to feel like I'm an expert trader for about 5 minutes I really like this train of thought with Mattel and decided to dip my toes into the pool. But of course that now means the stock is going to immediately drop 
|
|
#
?
Jul 12, 2023 21:12
|
|
|
Hadlock posted:Why does everyone think inflation is going to drop to 3%? I thought we all agreed it was a supply side issue. You can't invent more people to work in factories I have to quote this, cus inflation did happen to hit 3% by July  Of course i didn't really make any money on it, although I suppose holding through the last 6 months counts!
|
|
#
?
Jul 12, 2023 22:35
|
|
|
 mildly redacted version for clarity in the upper yellow section isn't this just adjustment for price shocks from the russian invasion of ukraine + european stockpiling + later ban of russian oil? Presumably when energy inflation stabilizies it won't be contributing to the negative rate of inflation anymore and, guessing here, won't contribute to lowering the overall CPI as much in future months, pushing it back up? i mean yes it did hit 3% but kind of looks like only due to the intense price spike of energy. food is still 5.7% and "everything else" is 4.8, let's not look at the weights and just call that 5% what does surprise me about that data is used car prices continue to slide at a pretty good clip
|
|
#
?
Jul 12, 2023 23:23
|
|
|
Hadlock posted:
That's a lot of words around "yes it did hit 3%"!
|
|
#
?
Jul 13, 2023 02:36
|
|
|
Hadlock posted:what does surprise me about that data is used car prices continue to slide at a pretty good clip The supply chain issues that were causing problems building new cars are mostly resolved. That should mean less demand for used cars and additional supply as people trade in or sell older cars when buying new ones.
|
|
#
?
Jul 13, 2023 03:39
|
|
|
GramCracker posted:I really like this train of thought with Mattel and decided to dip my toes into the pool. But of course that now means the stock is going to immediately drop I bought almost entirely on the vibes of all of the queer people and most women I interact with, and I still haven't looked at the company's paperwork or financials at all beyond a 3 year price graph. It's working out so far, but reason only seems to influence stock price so much
|
|
#
?
Jul 13, 2023 14:18
|
|
|
RIPquote:Earlier today Echo Lake Capital issued a letter to the Board of Directors of Quince Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:QNCX). The letter described a revised proposal to acquire all the company's common stock for $1.80 per share in cash plus a CVR
|
|
#
?
Jul 13, 2023 18:18
|
|
|
Long time readers of the thread may recall QNCX from its earlier name, Cortexyme, of Table 6 fame. 
|
|
#
?
Jul 13, 2023 19:14
|
|
|
Real bummer on that one all around.
|
|
#
?
Jul 13, 2023 19:29
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/spreadthread1/status/1679557639078805504 stocks only go up
|
|
#
?
Jul 13, 2023 22:42
|
|
|
The notion suggested here I suppose is that a certain type of investor, or perhaps managers, have moved out of dividend stocks and into riskless treasury bills and GICs, and so as soon as interest rates go back down, they'll come flooding into the dividend stocks, thus raising the price of these stocks. Accordingly there's an opportunity to buy low here now and sell high later. It sounds plausible. I went and had a look at the last time we had an episode of incredibly severe rate hikes along with a fall and had a look to see what some dull dividend loving bank/telco stocks did around that time. In Feb 94 the interest rate in Canada was 3.84%, it climbed to 8.13% in Feb 1995, then by Nov of 96, plunged back to 3%. Looking at the stocks for CIBC and Telus, well during this period it just looks like noise to me. They're certainly up by 1996, though they're just steadily up after then in general. I feel largely unconvinced of a connection here.  (I'm just assuming these stocks offered a dividend in 1995. I have no idea how to get that sort of historical dividend info) quote:Lower interest rates will bring a ‘wildebeest migration’ of investors into beaten down dividend stocks Femtosecond fucked around with this message at 03:17 on Jul 16, 2023 |
|
#
?
Jul 16, 2023 03:10
|
|
|
Femtosecond posted:The notion suggested here I suppose is that a certain type of investor, or perhaps managers, have moved out of dividend stocks and into riskless treasury bills and GICs, and so as soon as interest rates go back down, they'll come flooding into the dividend stocks, thus raising the price of these stocks. Accordingly there's an opportunity to buy low here now and sell high later. Your response upon reading "There's only been one 5% pullback this year, even during the dotcom boom there were eleven" is to go "This clearly means people are underinvested in the market and will go ultramax long when they see a dip"? Would you describe yourself as a permabull?
|
|
#
?
Jul 16, 2023 04:10
|
|
|
that's a puzzling interpretation of my comment and this article.  I don't think the article is suggesting that anyone pulled out of the market because it went down. The article is suggesting that the inflows/outflows around these particular stocks are related to the interest rates, which are estimated to pause in 2024 and decrease in 2025. So the quoted person is suggesting that this basket of stocks could see buying interest in 2024/25. (like yes the market could implode for completely unrelated reasons in 2024. That's beside the point?) (maybe I have no idea what you're suggesting. sorry.) Femtosecond fucked around with this message at 06:45 on Jul 16, 2023 |
|
#
?
Jul 16, 2023 06:30
|
|
|
The comparison to the dotcom bubble is kinda stupid though. The dotcom bubble was an index already at its ATH more than doubling in less than a year. QQQ is going thorough a weird topheavy recovery right now, but it's far from doubled its ATH. Also, 11 pullbacks of 5% or more in a year I believe is the all time most, the average since 1946 or so is either 1.5 or 3 per year depending on the source. I don't think we're exactly poised for explosive growth but pointing at a chart of the dotcom bubble compared to today and making such absurd comparisons feels almost ulterior motive-y it's such a bad take.
|
|
#
?
Jul 16, 2023 06:41
|
|
|
oh lol I just realized you probably meant to quote pmchem.
|
|
#
?
Jul 16, 2023 06:48
|
|
|
I think that he thought you were replying to me, but you were not. Your first sentence was referring to the article you quote posted (I think…), not my post above it. Also my post was just a random fun tweet, nothing more duders. heh
|
|
#
?
Jul 16, 2023 15:36
|
|
|
Femtosecond posted:The notion suggested here I suppose is that a certain type of investor, or perhaps managers, have moved out of dividend stocks and into riskless treasury bills and GICs, and so as soon as interest rates go back down, they'll come flooding into the dividend stocks, thus raising the price of these stocks. Accordingly there's an opportunity to buy low here now and sell high later. Yeah. There are still investors out there who focus on income instead of total return for whatever reason (I suppose there are a few decent reasons) and they're more likely to treat low growth dividend payers as something closer to bonds. And that means traditional bond math--"market yields have risen, price must come down"--will apply. You can see this pretty clearly with something like Verizon. It started its grand march downward as the Fed started hiking and now yields 7.6%. If you think you can time the top of, say, 10-year yields, there's a ton of money to be made.
|
|
#
?
Jul 16, 2023 15:48
|
|
|
pmchem posted:I find citi totally intriguing (see my prior posts on it), and am nearly drooling after its strong price resistance @ 45 and aswath's blog on it: follow-up on citi: I did not write puts. unsurprisingly they had a lackluster quarter, with low RoE, and the stock was red after earnings. I did get around to reading the earnings call this weekend: generally upbeat q&a except for all the concerns about 'bending the cost curve'. basically, they have extra expenses from the int'l divestments (banamex still pending...) and firing people, plus more expenses from tech modernization, and those expenses aren't really expected to go away until end of 2024. given the competence track record at citi there is reason to be skeptical that they will succeed in the tech modernization by then. the analysts on the call do seem to respect the citi CFO. I swear he gets more attention than their CEO. my prediction would be that citi catches some bearish price target adjustments this week and generally lags KBWB this week. but they do still print money and I gotta wonder how much worse it can get? it's a bank so the answer is "it can get VERY MUCH worse", but that is probably not likely. deposits were stable enough. their wealth management and FICC trading did well, their TTS segment did well, those are really things that have the potential to make them look more like morgan stanley in some future year for the bull case other people here are better bank analysts than me so take it with a grain of salt but citi's value proposition seems largely unchanged other bank notes: check out $OPBK, a korean christian bank with a huge loan book, solid LT growth, and crazy good ROE/ROTCE and margins.
|
|
#
?
Jul 17, 2023 01:38
|
|
|
pmchem posted:
wait so they have a highly correlated base of depositors who all talk to each other that hasn't been a great formula lately
|
|
#
?
Jul 17, 2023 02:26
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 9, 2024 11:40 |
|
|
shame on an IGA posted:wait so they have a highly correlated base of depositors who all talk to each other hah. but quite a different sort of clientele compared to silicon valley bank, yes? from their 1Q balance sheet, OPBK's total deposits went up in 1Q23 (which ended a couple weeks after bank panic started): https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/1722010/000162828023018156/opbk-20230331.htm compare to like, PACW where they went down by ~15% over the same period: https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/1102112/000162828023017382/pacw-20230331.htm
|
|
#
?
Jul 17, 2023 03:28
|
|