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I think the most interesting aspect regarding the whole war is how much Ukraine changed from the original 2014 conflict. Even western analysts through Ukraine would fall but what they missed was enormous changes in Ukrainian military and society.
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Jul 13, 2023 04:51
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saratoga posted:With respect to the original invasion (which is what was quoted), the main reason it failed is that it was poorly planned, had impossible objectives, and conducted over multiple axes of advance with woefully insufficient forces. You could also add specific enemy actions, but those are really secondary in that they determine the details of how an already doomed plan came apart. Yes, and? If it had been the Ukraine of 2014, that probably would have been enough for them to still triumph. But Ukraine has worked hard and fought hard and deserves respect instead of just going "Eh, anyone could have won." That's not true.
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Jul 13, 2023 04:53
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Ah, got it. I thought you were questioning sources for Russia keeping more senior officers out of the front line. I misinterpreted your post. Interesting comparison I picked up on while researching other things today: last summer Russia was firing something like 30,000 shells/day. On the first day of the ground war during the Gulf War (1991), the coalition fired 90,000 shells. I'm incredibly frustrated that Europe and the US waited so long to begin ramping up ammunition production, of all kinds. We know how much ammunition modern peer conventional war uses, just like I knew exactly how many troops it would take to subdue Fallujah in 2003, and how long such an operation would take. It's in the doctrinal manuals and our history, we learn about it, and it's fairly accurate. It's the same as Western analysts looking at Russia's pending invasion pre-February 2022 and going, "There's no way that Russia does this. The numbers don't add up. They can't succeed at what they say they want to do." It's one of the reasons I was relieved when DPICM got released. I've been very concerned about the latter part of 2023 in terms of artillery ammunition for Ukraine, and that largely solves it. I tend to agree with Koffman: this offensive runs out of steam when Ukraine has to ration indirect fires. Until then, it's push, push, push and see if you can get a real break in the Russian lines.
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Jul 13, 2023 04:56
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Crosby B. Alfred posted:I think the most interesting aspect regarding the whole war is how much Ukraine changed from the original 2014 conflict. Even western analysts through Ukraine would fall but what they missed was enormous changes in Ukrainian military and society. Yeah, that is another huge element. In response to the annexation of Crimea and the war in the Donbas Ukraine underwent an enormous buildup of military strength, including internal reforms, domestic weapons production ramp up, and integration of some Western weapons. Ukraine circa 2014 would not have held its ground against Russia nearly as effectively. Russia of all countries should have been well aware of this.
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Jul 13, 2023 05:03
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Might have been posted already, but Germany announced another aid package early into the NATO summit. https://breakingdefense.com/2023/07/germany-approves-769m-weapons-package-for-ukraine-clears-huge-boxer-deal-with-australia/ quote:Announced by German defense minister Boris Pistorius on the opening day of the NATO Heads of State Summit, the new package includes two US-made but German-owned Patriot air defense launchers, 40 more Marder infantry fighting vehicles, an additional 25 Leopard 1A5 main battle tanks, five recovery tanks and 20,000 rounds of artillery ammunition. An “extensive package” of anti-drone capabilities and a Luna intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) drones have also been included, according to a German Ministry of Defense statement. I am a bit surprised there are many more Leopard 1s to send. 20k rounds is funnily enough what some have claimed to be all Germany has left: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/germany-only-has-20000-high-explosive-artillery-shells-left-report-2023-06-19/ The Luna looks like your standard electric (so less flight time) drone. But it can carry a EW pod, so that might be useful.
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Jul 13, 2023 05:18
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Kchama posted:Yes, and? If it had been the Ukraine of 2014, that probably would have been enough for them to still triumph. The plan was to end up in Moldova, so I'm not sure about that. They'd have gotten a lot further, but that is a lot of ground to cover with not a lot of people. Kchama posted:But Ukraine has worked hard and fought hard and deserves respect instead of just going "Eh, anyone could have won." That's not true. Sure, but this was a list of reasons the invasion failed, not a list of people who deserve respect. It failed because the plan was insane. If they'd fought less hard, maybe Kharkov falls and the war looks a lot different, but they're still not getting to Moldova.
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Jul 13, 2023 05:27
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saratoga posted:The plan was to end up in Moldova, so I'm not sure about that. They'd have gotten a lot further, but that is a lot of ground to cover with not a lot of people. Your opinion is hard to take serious, as Herstory noted, if you don’t mention that the reason why it failed was because of Ukraine as much if not more than anything Russia or the US did in those early days. If Ukraine hadn’t worked so hard to improve themselves, Russia’s insane issues wouldn’t have mattered.
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Jul 13, 2023 05:41
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On the Russian side the entire invasion was flawed from the start. There were plenty of analysts that were convinced they weren’t going to actually invade because it was insane. Most realized Ukraine were greatly improved since 2014, that wasn’t a question. What was a massive surprise was how bad the Russian military was entirely. It is very obvious that they underestimated Ukraine and over estimated the abilities of their own forces. The Kiev airport disaster and the highway of out of fuel alone pretty much sealed their fate. Personally I think the airport was probably the biggest blunder as they lost a huge percentage of elite troops in one fell swoop with absolutely nothing gained. Russia I think should be thanking their lucky stars that Ukraine isn’t attacking bases in Russia. If they had clearance and weapons to strike Rostov-on-Don for example that would absolutely throw the Russian logistics and leadership into chaos.
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Jul 13, 2023 05:47
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Ynglaur posted:It's one of the reasons I was relieved when DPICM got released. I've been very concerned about the latter part of 2023 in terms of artillery ammunition for Ukraine, and that largely solves it. I tend to agree with Koffman: this offensive runs out of steam when Ukraine has to ration indirect fires. Until then, it's push, push, push and see if you can get a real break in the Russian lines. Vast stocks of DPICM are going to do Ukraine a world of good. I'll give the usual disclaimer about cluster bombs being bad but using them on trench networks that are already going to be le Zone Rouge from conventional artillery adds little to the existing hazards. They also have some utility in clearing minefields, but they're to trenches as Excalibur is to a tank. The current phase of the offensive involves a poo poo ton of combat engineers clearing minefields by hand. It's going to take time and casualties to get through to where you can plausibly make a big assault that could spring an exploitation force through. It's the WW1 problem all over again, except the attackers have tactical radio networks, thermal imaging, and precision fires. They'll get through.
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Jul 13, 2023 05:48
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WarpedLichen posted:Might have been posted already, but Germany announced another aid package early into the NATO summit. Two more Patriot batteries is huge. They've already gotten cross-border kills, this is going to roll back Russian aviation quite a bit. The standing CAP units will be further back, opening up room for Ukrainian air power to work on the front lines. e. damnit, double post, thought I was in a different thread.
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Jul 13, 2023 05:52
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mllaneza posted:Two more Patriot batteries is huge. They've already gotten cross-border kills, this is going to roll back Russian aviation quite a bit. The standing CAP units will be further back, opening up room for Ukrainian air power to work on the front lines. Two launchers, not two batteries.
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Jul 13, 2023 06:24
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Djarum posted:Russia I think should be thanking their lucky stars that Ukraine isn’t attacking bases in Russia. If they had clearance and weapons to strike Rostov-on-Don for example that would absolutely throw the Russian logistics and leadership into chaos. Not sure about weapons that they've nominally purchased from the West though, whether those carry the same restriction on not using them to attack Russian territory.
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Jul 13, 2023 07:36
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Hannibal Rex posted:Two launchers, not two batteries. Still good, but they could really use a SAM umbrella for offensive ops.
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Jul 13, 2023 07:46
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Hannibal Rex posted:Two launchers, not two batteries. Norway similarly announced they're donating some NASAMS components (launchers, commands centers, spare parts), but not entire new systems. They're also handing over 1000 Black Hornet drones. Will those be useful in the offensive? I thought Black Hornet was most useful in close range urban fighting.
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Jul 13, 2023 07:52
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Drakhoran posted:Norway similarly announced they're donating some NASAMS components (launchers, commands centers, spare parts), but not entire new systems. I imagine they're probably pretty useful for night infiltration work.
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Jul 13, 2023 08:29
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I'm a bit skeptical on reporting of what's happening within Russian military leadership, but with that said, it does seem like some stuff is happening WSJ going to press with the claim that Surovikin is more or less detained https://www.wsj.com/articles/russia-detained-several-senior-military-officers-in-wake-of-wagner-mutiny-35a696e4?st=iej49vstqwr360r Politico and FT reporting that another general, Ivan Popov (formerly commander of 58th combined arms army) was fired and who then went on to release an audio recording blaming gerasimov and shoigu. https://www.politico.eu/article/ivan-popov-russia-military-general-sergei-shoigu-treason-ukraine-war/ (FT piece is paywalled, but easily googled) Prigozhin also hasn't popped up in a while which does not automatically mean anything, but where and how he ends up is still very much unknown Drakhoran posted:Norway similarly announced they're donating some NASAMS components (launchers, commands centers, spare parts), but not entire new systems. black hornets are very well regarded and are extremely nifty pieces of decade old but still extremely relevant kit. 1000 of them is a lot, too, they're not cheap Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 11:34 on Jul 13, 2023 |
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Jul 13, 2023 11:08
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MikeC posted:
They will work in a pinch. In my younger and dumber days, I often forgot or lost my earplugs at the range. Lots of Privates had a pocket full of butts from either their own habit or because they were made to police call someone else's mess. It was better than going completely deaf anyway.
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Jul 13, 2023 11:29
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Vox Nihili posted:.
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Jul 13, 2023 11:31
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Not sure this has been linked but here's an article from July 1st on the ongoing issue with Russia committing war crimes with kidnapping Ukranian children: https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2023/07/russia-kidnapping-abducting-ukrainian-children/674535/
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Jul 13, 2023 11:36
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MikeC posted:
This seems pretty consistent. My point is that judging success by the movement of the front line is premature considering it had not moved in a month in much more ideal conditions during the Kherson offensive. Chalks fucked around with this message at 12:12 on Jul 13, 2023 |
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Jul 13, 2023 12:10
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Kofman spoke to this in a recent War on the Rocks episode: https://open.spotify.com/episode/2lo9HVCtRhvRqzPz67OfYt?si=T5LFWCJ6TaGb8NzMRw2e2g. My takeaway from it was that the level of attrition on either side is unknown to us as outside observers, until we see something break. Which may or may not happen. (Recommend to listen to the episode for a bunch of other analysis too, as Kofman is a very level-headed analyst in my view.)
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Jul 13, 2023 12:21
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Seems like just yesterday we were watching the invasion start up and fail in real-time with the 40 mile traffic jam of destroyed vehicles and paratroopers giving interviews before dying seconds later around the corner from the reporter.
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Jul 13, 2023 12:44
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Ra Ra Rasputin posted:Seems like just yesterday we were watching the invasion start up and fail in real-time with the 40 mile traffic jam of destroyed vehicles and paratroopers giving interviews before dying seconds later around the corner from the reporter. Presumably, some of the sunflowers are blooming now
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Jul 13, 2023 13:04
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Ra Ra Rasputin posted:Seems like just yesterday we were watching the invasion start up and fail in real-time with the 40 mile traffic jam of destroyed vehicles and paratroopers giving interviews before dying seconds later around the corner from the reporter. That traffic jam was a truly historical moment. I have no proof of this, but I think Belurusian saboteurs played a much bigger role than we currently acknowledge. Quagmiring the supply-lines probably caused so many problems for already poorly planned Russian logistics. The type of incompetence we saw on the invasion of Kiev surpasses anything else we've seen out of Russia.
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Jul 13, 2023 13:26
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Chill Monster posted:That traffic jam was a truly historical moment. I have no proof of this, but I think Belurusian saboteurs played a much bigger role than we currently acknowledge. Quagmiring the supply-lines probably caused so many problems for already poorly planned Russian logistics. The type of incompetence we saw on the invasion of Kiev surpasses anything else we've seen out of Russia. And Chinese tires on trucks, which had been standing in storage for years.
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Jul 13, 2023 13:31
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OperaMouse posted:And Chinese tires on trucks, which had been standing in storage for years. Yeah lol everyone knows those Chinamen cannot make tires e: what I'm trying to say is: using "Chinese" as synonym for "questionable" or "low quality" is racist as gently caress BabyFur Denny fucked around with this message at 13:40 on Jul 13, 2023 |
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Jul 13, 2023 13:35
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I can imagine some of it is that Russia is absolutely riddled with western spies who have been reporting to the Ukrainians. It would explain why the Ukrainians have repeatedly been able to take out high ranking Russians, attack weak points and stymie essentially every attempted Russian counterattack from the main army since they took Kherson (Wagner being less compromised would explain why it's the only part of Russia's force that has achieved anything in the past year). The Russians may have more and better equipment but they seem absurdly outclassed in terms of intelligence.
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Jul 13, 2023 13:55
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BabyFur Denny posted:Yeah lol everyone knows those Chinamen cannot make tires It's a reference to an infamous Twitter Guy that was making the rounds at the time for his effortpost thread about how photos of Russian trucks with Chinese tyres meant the entire war machine would fall apart almost immediately
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Jul 13, 2023 14:03
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BabyFur Denny posted:e: what I'm trying to say is: using "Chinese" as synonym for "questionable" or "low quality" is racist as gently caress I don’t think it’s particularly controversial to say that Chinese manufacturing quality is very often directly a function of the extent of third-party QA oversight. You get out what you prescriptively specify, inspect and control for. There is absolutely no way that the endemically corrupt Russian military could appropriately manage a procurement contract from China without it being riddled with chabudou.
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Jul 13, 2023 14:10
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BabyFur Denny posted:Yeah lol everyone knows those Chinamen cannot make tires Counterpoint - no it isn't, particularly when you are discussing military equipment. China hosts absolutely massive knock off product markets that that are constructed of low quality materials and without effective quality control. They regularly discuss their "leapfrog" technological movement which consists of "skipping" a generation of production development technologies amd the types of practices that go along with them. This isn't to say that Chinese products are necessarily inferior, but their reputation is a product of both state policy and private performance. They have a reputation that reflects these practices. China is known as a market friendly state where companies will produce products cheaply. Grip it and rip it fucked around with this message at 15:26 on Jul 13, 2023 |
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Jul 13, 2023 15:18
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Grip it and rip it posted:Counterpoint - no it isn't, particularly when you are discussing military equipment. China hosts absolutely massive knock off product markets that that are constructed of low quality materials and without effective quality control. They regularly discuss their "leapfrog" technological movement which consists of "skipping" a generation of production development technologies amd the types of practices that go along with them. yes and I am saying, using "Chinese" as synonym for "low quality" is racist.
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Jul 13, 2023 16:13
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MikeC posted:https://static.rusi.org/403-SR-Russian-Tactics-web-final.pdf I don't have a TON of experience vetting sources for this war or anything, but is this really a formal, "just-the-facts" summary? The main thing that twinges here is the part where they just accept at face value "a bunch of these guys seem to be actively on narcotics", which sounds like something the bad guys in a video game would do, but doesn't seem like it would track with what we know in general. Firstly, I have to imagine that narcotics would make you borderline useless on the front lines, because the literal dictionary definition of a narcotic says that it typically causes "drowsiness, stupor, or insensibility". It doesn't make sense that Russia would be deliberately putting people like that into areas likely to encounter resistance. Secondly, how would those kinds of goods be making it to the front lines in anything resembling the quantities necessary to make a large percentage of enlisted visibly under their effects? Like, yeah we all know that Russia is the source for crazy drugs like Krokodil or whatever, but drug dealers aren't going to be rolling up into Ukraine to get someone their fix, so they would have to be getting shipped in the same way as actual military goods, likely on the same vehicles. Do we really think Russia is making enough shipments on a regular enough basis to keep this many people addicted to narcotics on the front, when we know that their actual medical care for the injured is wildly inadequate based on the killed:injured casualty ratios? It seems to me that it is way more likely that the people who are behaving "as though on narcotics" are suffering from PTSD or, hell, just sleep deprivation. Seems like a much more likely cause of "drowsiness, stupor, and insensibility" on the whole Edit: to add more content relevant to current events, just how wide do we think the minefields are? They obviously can't extend over the majority of the front or anything, so why is that where we are constantly looking for progress on the front? I understand that there is some bottlenecking due to the difficulty of river crossings and the like, but are there not other zones that Ukraine could be pushing the front with less resistance, especially given the heavy investment in a handful of choke points? Basically, is the issue mostly just that the minefields are blocking the direct approach towards the artillery that is de facto preventing advancement along adjacent parts of the front? Also, I think the pointmade above about Ukraine advancing into Russia makes a lot of sense to me - if Russia is so dug in on the parts of Ukrainian territory that they control, wouldn't it be much better to capture an equivalent amount of Russia territory and propose a swap rather than losing a bunch of lives on the heaviest fortifications? Or, for that matter, just to go deep enough into Russian territory that you are out of range of the artillery targeting the front and circle around to get the flank on the selfsame artillery so they have no retreat and you can force a surrender BougieBitch fucked around with this message at 16:28 on Jul 13, 2023 |
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Jul 13, 2023 16:16
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Soldiers and marines popping uppers like candy is a pretty regular tradition going back at least to world war one. Nazi Germany had their soldiers hopped up on so much amphetamines they went days without eating. The US used them in Iraq and regularly elsewhere until 2017. That doesn't mean the report is accurate or it's a good idea to give soldiers drugs, but it's common enough that I don't think it's a good reason for skepticism by itself.
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Jul 13, 2023 16:24
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BougieBitch posted:I don't have a TON of experience vetting sources for this war or anything, but is this really a formal, "just-the-facts" summary? The main thing that twinges here is the part where they just accept at face value "a bunch of these guys seem to be actively on narcotics", which sounds like something the bad guys in a video game would do, but doesn't seem like it would track with what we know in general. Firstly, I have to imagine that narcotics would make you borderline useless on the front lines, because the literal dictionary definition of a narcotic says that it typically causes "drowsiness, stupor, or insensibility". It doesn't make sense that Russia would be deliberately putting people like that into areas likely to encounter resistance. Secondly, how would those kinds of goods be making it to the front lines in anything resembling the quantities necessary to make a large percentage of enlisted visibly under their effects? Like, yeah we all know that Russia is the source for crazy drugs like Krokodil or whatever, but drug dealers aren't going to be rolling up into Ukraine to get someone their fix, so they would have to be getting shipped in the same way as actual military goods, likely on the same vehicles. Do we really think Russia is making enough shipments on a regular enough basis to keep this many people addicted to narcotics on the front, when we know that their actual medical care for the injured is wildly inadequate based on the killed:injured casualty ratios? I think you're stretching the "according to dictionary.com, a 'narcotic' is defined as--" thing a bit. The full line is: quote:...Ukrainian troops report that they often appear to be under the influence of amphetamines or other narcotic substances... so you can probably safely just focus on 'amphetamines' and assume that they're using 'narcotics' in the broader sense of "a classified/controlled drug". And amphetamines have been given to soldiers in numerous wars, it's not a new or inconceivable thing by any means Dunno if it's true in this case but it wouldn't be shocking if it were
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Jul 13, 2023 16:27
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Soldiers are famous for their sobriety and good judgement. That's definitely the stereotype.
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Jul 13, 2023 16:29
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Jon posted:Soldiers and marines popping uppers like candy is a pretty regular tradition going back at least to world war one. Nazi Germany had their soldiers hopped up on so much amphetamines they went days without eating. The US used them in Iraq and regularly elsewhere until 2017. That doesn't mean the report is accurate or it's a good idea to give soldiers drugs, but it's common enough that I don't think it's a good reason for skepticism by itself. Look, I'm not saying I doubt that SOLDIERS use uppers, and certainly it is understandable why it would be in the best interest of Russia for people to be using uppers even if it is just something as basic as coffee or caffeine pills, but what I'm moreso getting at is that those sorts of things are a LUXURY, and the people on the front being the "disposables" doesn't track with them having extensive access to performance-enhancing drugs. Do we really think that the same people who are getting so stiffed that they have to fundraise to buy their own boots is getting a continuous supply of pharma enhancement from Moscow? Basically, why do we think that the circles of "mobiks", "front line", and "amphetamines" would have the greatest overlap in a circumstance where we know that Russia has great supply issues? It seems like Occam's razor to me to assume instead that Ukraine has deliberately or accidentally conflated the symptoms of PTSD or sleep dep with drug use and withdrawal, and while I don't doubt that they would find some amount of drugs in the possession of some of the people they capture I think the way that clause is structured in that article might be part of the whole "Russians are orcs" line of thought where you dehumanize them so that you can tolerate having to kill them. If nothing else, can we at least agree that characterizing drug use as unique to the "disposable" caste of the Russian military is probably not accurate, and the use rate is probably equal or greater farther up the chain as you get to the guys manning artillery or whatever? Edit: I would also add that Germany has a reputation for pharma going way back, so it's not really surprising that they would have "PepUp, a Bayer product" or whatever, but Russia is emphatically not that (much moreso China or India), and their complete inability to manage vaccine distribution in peacetime seems like a pretty big knock on their ability to get medicine to a wide area in a timely manner, not even adding in the clues from the casualty ratios that indicate they are woefully unprepared to handle medicine at the front specifically. I suppose you could argue that this sort of thing is directly tied to their high death/low wounded issues if you assume that guys are just using up all the supplies in the medkits recreationally, or are having worse outcomes for wounds due to overuse of pain meds or something, but I guess my point is that it seems weird to throw that into a report haphazardly when the extent of the evidence is "some Ukrainians have said that the Russian soldiers are crackheads, and they have found drugs in their military supplies". BougieBitch fucked around with this message at 16:45 on Jul 13, 2023 |
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Jul 13, 2023 16:38
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BougieBitch posted:Look, I'm not saying I doubt that SOLDIERS use uppers, and certainly it is understandable why it would be in the best interest of Russia for people to be using uppers even if it is just something as basic as coffee or caffeine pills, but what I'm moreso getting at is that those sorts of things are a LUXURY, and the people on the front being the "disposables" doesn't track with them having extensive access to performance-enhancing drugs. Do we really think that the same people who are getting so stiffed that they have to fundraise to buy their own boots is getting a continuous supply of pharma enhancement from Moscow? Once again, evidence must be wrong because it doesn’t fit with the assumptions of a random dude. Amazing. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Jul 13, 2023 16:43
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Xiahou Dun posted:Once again, evidence must be wrong because it doesn’t fit with the assumptions of a random dude. What is the evidence, I'm looking at a single sentence in an article that is largely about other things. Are there other sources somewhere that indicate that this is true that have anything resembling a number or metric? We regularly go over the fact that you can't completely trust pro-Ukrainian sources not to spin things a bit in what they project outward, so it seems like this particular bit is that exact sort of thing. MikeC mentioned that the report was from May and has been corroborated in various ways - perhaps he can clarify if that extends to the claim about drug use or just in terms of Russian keeping high-value soldiers in reserve.
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Jul 13, 2023 16:49
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I didn't reread the full report, but I believe the section you are referring to is:quote:They are issued with small arms. Ukrainian troops report that they often appear to be The narcotics angle was widely spread around during the prisoner attacks in Bakhmut, where the "zombie" moniker started getting kicked around. I think its reasonable to be skeptical of the Ukrainian claim here, soldiers exaggerate obviously, and I don't know if there were any captured kits containing drugs. I personally don't read that the RUSI researchers are pushing that notion as fact either, but I might have missed something. It seems that it's widely spread amongst Ukrainian troops, which might be the more interesting tidbit.
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Jul 13, 2023 16:52
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Amphetamines are cheap, easy to manufacture, and unlike boots or bullets or shells a few grams lasts a soldier for months. It would be more shocking if they weren't being issued out.
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Jul 13, 2023 16:55
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