(Thread IKs:
fatherboxx)
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Orthanc6 posted:That depends on what the strength/frequency differences are between the signal from an anti-air-radar, and a drone controller. I could imagine the drone operating signal being a lot weaker and thus harder to find and lock on to. It might be tricky to fit a detector sensitive enough inside a missile. Yeah the operator is only sending a tiny fraction as much data backwards, and radiated energy is proportional to data transmitted. Not sure how well that is going to work for a missile which would be moving very fast and thus have very little time to lock on (and might even approach at a moment when the operator isn't transmitting commands). Seems like a loitering munition that gradually followed the signal backwards to the operator would make more sense, since you'd have the option to go slow and integrate signal, or even pause if the operator stops transmitting for a minute.
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Jul 14, 2023 20:55
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saratoga posted:Yeah the operator is only sending a tiny fraction as much data backwards, and radiated energy is proportional to data transmitted. Not sure how well that is going to work for a missile which would be moving very fast and thus have very little time to lock on (and might even approach at a moment when the operator isn't transmitting commands). Seems like a loitering munition that gradually followed the signal backwards to the operator would make more sense, since you'd have the option to go slow and integrate signal, or even pause if the operator stops transmitting for a minute. And radio waves can echo weirdly from surroundings, from what I've experienced, so in the end I'm not sure how it would work at all for a missile. Maybe a sensor drone that could map a wider area and that way you could calculate/estimate the origin and then drop some shells there, except that the drone itself would be transmitting and maybe creating inference...
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Jul 14, 2023 21:37
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mutata posted:It's not a surprise to see memes on UA uniforms. There's been a large pro-Ukraine meme effort since the war began. Saint Javelin and all that. I think one of the top Ukrainian generals wears a baby Yoda patch on his uniform.
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Jul 14, 2023 21:51
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Charliegrs posted:I think one of the top Ukrainian generals wears a baby Yoda patch on his uniform. THE top Ukrainian general does. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Valerii_Zaluzhnyi
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Jul 14, 2023 22:14
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Chalks posted:Maybe the speed of the counter offensive may change soon, if this really is the state of things. Both sides have been making the exact same claims about the other side for the entirety of the war with reference to: - The troops being poorly equipped - The troops being untrained and demoralized - "rushed into battle" - The troops being exhausted due to never rotating out of the front - The troops being poorly led by incompetent officers - The troops dying by the hundreds or thousands in hopeless human wave attacks Probably in reality both sides stand about equal and if the Russians do have an edge in battles it's from their much greater use of artillery and military aviation. **This idea that Ukraine has somehow managed to massively out-kill the Russians while attacking into minefields and prepared fortifications with small brigades of light infantry running along the ground seems highly dubious to me.. I also don't think that the attacks have been as disastrous as the Russians try to portray them, but the idea that the Ukrainians just have to push for a little big longer and a little bit harder and then suddenly Russia will reach their last reservist and the whole front will collapse into disorganized retreat seems.. highly dubious to me. Starsfan fucked around with this message at 22:51 on Jul 14, 2023 |
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Jul 14, 2023 22:43
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If those were equally true for both sides then the Russians would have won the war due to said artillery and aviation.
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Jul 14, 2023 22:50
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Starsfan posted:
But in the case these reports are coming from the Russian side about the Russian side, and the frequency and severity is increasing, so that's not really the same thing Starsfan posted:
The reports aren't saying that at all though? They're talking about a campaign against Russian logistics causing them to run out of ammunition and rations, with exhausted formations being denied rest or reinforcements. This is being done with artillery and long range drone and rocket strikes. In the context of cluster munitions this will only get more extreme. Chalks fucked around with this message at 23:00 on Jul 14, 2023 |
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Jul 14, 2023 22:51
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Irony Be My Shield posted:If those were equally true for both sides then the Russians would have won the war due to said artillery and aviation. I'm not saying that having more artillery or the support of military aviation has been a persistent and equally important advantage across all times and locations.. for example it's certainly true that for most of the war the Russians haven't been able to use their air force very effectively outside of when the Ukrainians got surrounded in Mariupol I guess. That kind of changes when the Ukrainians are pushing into their defensive positions and it seems like it has made a notable impact on the defense of the Ukrainian counteroffensive (with even Ukrainian sources noting that the Helicopters of all things which were previously thought to be useless are doing work) and artillery being used to "break up" any points of convergence for assembling Ukrainian troops. Chalks posted:The reports aren't saying that at all though? They're talking about a campaign against Russian logistics causing them to run out of ammunition and rations, with exhausted formations being denied rest or reinforcements. It is being said, the explanation for why the supposedly exhausted formations aren't being rotated out of their positions I've seen postulated over and over again is that the Russians have suffered so many casualties (I think the Ukrainian MOD is claiming a 5.3:1 ratio in the south last I checked) that all of the reserve formations have already been pushed up to the front and there's nothing left to rotate out people or to replace the ones currently at the front when they die. I don't believe that this is the case as it seems incredibly implausible given all we know about the nature of the fighting that is taking place. I will just note that if the contention is that Russian soldiers are complaining on social media that they aren't receiving the supplies they need.. well this is nothing new or unique to Russia. I've never been in the military myself but my understanding from listening to the perspectives of those who have is that it's basically universal that soldiers in the field gripe and complain about everything. If you think it's emblematic of a wider and fatal trend for Russia.. well that is also nothing new, western intelligence sources have been predicting with a high degree of confidence the imminent collapse of the Russian army due to lack of supplies since basically the first day of the war. Starsfan fucked around with this message at 23:10 on Jul 14, 2023 |
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Jul 14, 2023 22:56
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So you aren’t even talking about this specific piece of news then? (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Jul 14, 2023 23:28
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Would also like to point out that Russia has had a long and well documented history of sending their troops in without vital supplies and told to just take what they need from the ground or the dead and has shown no evidence that practice has ended.
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Jul 14, 2023 23:49
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Starsfan posted:Both sides have been making the exact same claims about the other side for the entirety of the war with reference to: Everyone has to keep in mind there is survivorship bias involved meaning that isolated footage or claims of incompetence etc can't tell you who is winning or losing. Ex: It is far more likely for Ukrainians to have helmet cam footage showing them carving up a disposable convict element than it is for there to be footage of them carving up professional soldiers simply because they are unlikely to be deployed in an exposed manner and any fight with them would likely be much harder than poorly armed and trained convicts. Same thing in reverse when the Russians were pushing into Bakhmut in late winter and the Ukrainians were feeding territorial defense soldiers with little support. I don't find it impossible to believe that the Ukrainians could be on the positive end of the loss ratios for infantry given the shift in tactics and how they have really restricted their probes to a few points along in the south, but the flip side is the Russians appear to have plenty more of where that came from. Until we get some sense of whether the hard core of the Russian army is actually suffering significant losses, all of this, including the ChrisO_wiki thread means little. We already know that mobilized troops are poorly equipped. But if it is this bad across the Russian front lines (lol 2 rifles 22 soldiers  ), then the Ukrainians would have rolled up all of Southern Ukraine already. Its too bad that Estonian Colonel doesn't give more specifics about where and how he is getting the information or more concrete numbers, but I have read enough 'imminent breakthroughs' during the Kherson op last year to take an 'I'll believe when I see it' approach.
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Jul 14, 2023 23:57
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The latest Geopolitics decanted podcast: https://geopolitics-decanted.simple...sive-and-wagner Mentions that the dam has caused issues for the Ukrainian metallurgy industry. Anybody got any articles on that? A cursory google search didn't turn up anything for me.
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Jul 15, 2023 01:04
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https://twitter.com/rybar_force/status/1679942331351416832?s=20 The first piece of confirmation from the Russian side of exhausted reserves in the Bakhmust region.
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Jul 15, 2023 01:19
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MikeC posted:https://twitter.com/rybar_force/status/1679942331351416832?s=20 hmmm... either it's an acknowledgement of a potential weakness in the Russian army and a plea for help for those in the field, or a deliberate attempt to put out misleading information and induce a Ukrainian attack on a heavily fortified position by the Russian affiliated Rybar.. This war has hosed with my head so much and I've already been caught like 50 different times with credible reports from both / either the Russian and Ukrainian sides of events that supposedly happened or were planned to happen and then nothing came of it or something else actually happened which aligned with neither narrative the last time was when they both claimed the other was about to sabotage and blow up the nuclear power plant lol. Now I just wait to see what happens before getting too wound up by anything. I'll concede that there is reasonable information / speculation in support of the notion that the Russian forces in the Bakhmut area are nearing exhaustion and may need to either be withdrawn or reinforced.
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Jul 15, 2023 02:36
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Starsfan posted:hmmm... either it's an acknowledgement of a potential weakness in the Russian army and a plea for help for those in the field, or a deliberate attempt to put out misleading information and induce a Ukrainian attack on a heavily fortified position by the Russian affiliated Rybar.. this is not remotely a thing that happens nor is that even remotely how locations to attack are decided. it's an area that has seen very intense fighting for 6 weeks and rybar does not spuriously post about russian difficulties so I'd take it at basically face value
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Jul 15, 2023 05:00
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Starsfan posted:hmmm... either it's an acknowledgement of a potential weakness in the Russian army and a plea for help for those in the field, or a deliberate attempt to put out misleading information and induce a Ukrainian attack on a heavily fortified position by the Russian affiliated Rybar.. I am certain that Ukrainian armed forces have enough intelligence on any part of the frontline to not rely on public reports from Russian propagandists.
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Jul 15, 2023 08:38
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Here's a article about the efforts of the Russian government to incentivice enlistment through financial compensation and the social and economic impact.quote:In this case, all the aforementioned payments will be equal to 31 years’ worth of his paycheck (in fact, the period is longer because personal income tax would be due on that paycheck). This means only one thing: if a man goes to war and dies at the age of 30 to 35 (i.e. at the most active age and best health status), his death will be more economically profitable than his further life. In other words, Putin’s regime does not only glorify and ennoble death, but also turns it into a rational choice. quote:Paradoxically, the Kremlin seriously expects a positive economic outcome from the creation of a high-salaried contract army. If we assume that the number of mobilised and contract-based soldiers ranges from 400,000 to 450,000, then their minimum total allowance will amount to approx. 1 trillion roubles a year. The government will have to allocate about the same amount for compensations in case of killed or wounded soldiers, even if there are 50,000 or 100,000 such people in a year. These sums represent nearly 10% of pre-war federal spending, and some people are already predicting the emergence of a social group of «the young rich» and even making plans for how this money will contribute to long-term investment programmes. All in all, the «deathonomics» is becoming a kind of «new normal» for the Russian government and the economists serving its interests.
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Jul 15, 2023 09:36
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Starsfan posted:hmmm... either it's an acknowledgement of a potential weakness in the Russian army and a plea for help for those in the field, or a deliberate attempt to put out misleading information and induce a Ukrainian attack on a heavily fortified position by the Russian affiliated Rybar.. I am told the Special Military Operation is proceeding according to plan and all its objectives are being met.
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Jul 15, 2023 09:47
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Some more news from Die Zeit Liveblog: - South Korea's president Yoon Suk Yeol was suddenly in Kiew, visiting Zelensky. Possibly because North Korea is supporting Russia, which now in turn means South Korea needs to lend more aid? I'm blindly speculating there. -Ukrainian troops are still moving forwards towards Mariupol, the fighting on the other fronts is a bit less clear, but still intense. -There's also this: quote:In dem Bericht an die Botschafter hieß es demnach, der größte Teil der geschmuggelten Geschossteile komme mit 81 Prozent aus den USA. An zweiter Stelle folge die Schweiz mit acht Prozent, Deutschland und Japan stehen auf der Liste mit je 3,5 Prozent auf Platz drei. Komponenten aus Deutschland sollen im Marschflugkörper Ch-101 sowie in den Varianten 9M728 und 9M729 des Marschflugkörpers Iskander verbaut worden sein. Auch das Hyperschallgeschoss Ch-47M2 Kinschal soll deutsche Bauteile enthalten. To summarize what is happening: Ukrainian troops find more and more smuggled parts from Western countries in Russian missiles. Ukrainian sources claim they have traced 81% of the smuggled parts back to the US, 8% back to the Swiss and 3,5% back to Germany. German components have been found in cruise missile variant Ch-101 and in the variants 9M728 and 9M729 of the cruise missile Iskander. The hypersonic missile Ch-47M2 Kinshal supposedly also had German components in them. According to an interview with the Frankfurter Allgemeinen Zeitung, Ukraine has already informed Western embassies about the findings.
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Jul 15, 2023 14:00
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I believe South Korea has already been providing much of Ukraine's 155mm ammunition., though it's a bit unclear if it's "Korean military ammunition" or "US ammunition stored in Korea". Edit: I think it's time to go beyond sanctions and move to no trade at all.
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Jul 15, 2023 15:28
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quote:Paradoxically, the Kremlin seriously expects a positive economic outcome from the creation of a high-salaried contract army. i mean, when you think about it, this probably is one of the largest wealth transfers from the russian elite to the general population, since they've historically been such a voraciously extractive upper class now if only they hadn't similarity cratered the ruble...
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Jul 15, 2023 17:58
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Operation Interflex now quoted as having passed the 18,000 trained mark. https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1680215747430064128
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Jul 15, 2023 18:03
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beer_war posted:I am told the Special Military Operation is proceeding according to plan and all its objectives are being met. It does seem like the Russians are getting the better of the fighting right at this moment and for the past few weeks, but I wouldn't go so far as to say that the SMO has been a success at this point.
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Jul 15, 2023 19:02
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is there any serious movement in the west to sanction russia a bit more strictly? Obviously a lot of the existing sanctions are doing something, but Russia is still trading, western corporations are still doing massive business in russia and so on. I'd so love to see the economic warfare side of the conflict ramped up as high as we can. Why haven't we yet? Too many monied interests in the west that still want to do business with russia without too much attention drawn to them?
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Jul 15, 2023 19:10
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Starsfan posted:It does seem like the Russians are getting the better of the fighting right at this moment and for the past few weeks, but I wouldn't go so far as to say that the SMO has been a success at this point. Whoosh
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Jul 15, 2023 19:21
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Baronjutter posted:is there any serious movement in the west to sanction russia a bit more strictly? Obviously a lot of the existing sanctions are doing something, but Russia is still trading, western corporations are still doing massive business in russia and so on. I'd so love to see the economic warfare side of the conflict ramped up as high as we can. Why haven't we yet? Too many monied interests in the west that still want to do business with russia without too much attention drawn to them? I think the same questions could be asked as to why the west isn't sending Ukraine everything they need in military aid instead of doing this drip feeding technique, and why the west isn't providing adequate training for more than 1,000 Ukrainians a month in Britain and around the same in Germany and various smaller amounts elsewhere when Zelenskyy himself says that Ukraine needs to have training for it's people who are willing to fight more than anything else... Not alot of how the west has went about supporting Ukraine makes alot of sense to me.
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Jul 15, 2023 19:30
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WarpedLichen posted:The latest Geopolitics decanted podcast: They just got back from Ukraine and interviewed people there, so their information is first hand not articles from papers.
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Jul 15, 2023 19:30
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Starsfan posted:It does seem like the Russians are getting the better of the fighting right at this moment and for the past few weeks By what metric?
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Jul 15, 2023 19:34
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Rugz posted:By what metric? I'm going by reports in western media that indicate that Ukraine and their western advisors have recognized that Ukraine's approach to the counter offensive was not working and they subsequently changed up to a different approach that they hope will be able to salvage some sort of results out of the whole thing down the line. Like i don't think it's controversial to suggest that what happened in June was not very good for Ukraine.
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Jul 15, 2023 19:41
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Starsfan posted:I'm going by reports in western media that indicate that Ukraine and their western advisors have recognized that Ukraine's approach to the counter offensive was not working and they subsequently changed up to a different approach that they hope will be able to salvage some sort of results out of the whole thing down the line. Which reports are you talking about?
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Jul 15, 2023 19:43
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Starsfan posted:Like i don't think it's controversial to suggest that what happened in June was not very good for Ukraine. Maybe if you had tuned yourself for a non-stop victory parade to Sevastopol. But everybody knew that the breakthrough would become a difficult slug out and it needs to be conducted carefully to avoid excessive casualties. All the while Ukraine has to attrite Russians so that once they are ready for a breakthrough, there are no useful Russian reserves left to stop them. Thankfully Russian command has thought that they also need to conduct their own offensives in the east and in Kherson, which have led to high losses.
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Jul 15, 2023 19:52
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Starsfan posted:I'm going by reports in western media that indicate that Ukraine and their western advisors have recognized that Ukraine's approach to the counter offensive was not working and they subsequently changed up to a different approach that they hope will be able to salvage some sort of results out of the whole thing down the line. Something not being very good for Ukraine does not mean that 'Russia got the better of it' logically follows.
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Jul 15, 2023 19:52
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Kchama posted:Which reports are you talking about? https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/15/us/politics/ukraine-leopards-bradleys-counteroffensive.html https://kyivindependent.com/isw-28/ and there have been others as well. I mean to clarify, re-evaluating your tactics and trying to change things up when things aren't working out for you is actually a good thing and a sign of competency. And just because Ukraine is getting the "worst of it" on the ground doesn't necessarily mean that they can't achieve their overall objective. Alot of people in this thread have compared this offensive to the Kherson one from last year and I think one of the interesting elements of comparison between the two (that hasn't really been acknowledged) was that in Kherson the Ukrainians were taking horrendous losses to the point that it was even starting to leak out into the western media.. they couldn't really be said to be getting the better of the fighting at any point up until the Russians withdrew across the river. I think the Ukrainians are likely fully cognizant of this fact as being something that is an inherent part of going on the offensive against a well prepared and heavily armed opponent, it just is what it is.
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Jul 15, 2023 19:53
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Starsfan posted:I'm going by reports in western media that indicate that Ukraine and their western advisors have recognized that Ukraine's approach to the counter offensive was not working and they subsequently changed up to a different approach that they hope will be able to salvage some sort of results out of the whole thing down the line. What are you referring to that happened in June that wasn't very good for Ukraine?
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Jul 15, 2023 19:54
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Nenonen posted:Maybe if you had tuned yourself for a non-stop victory parade to Sevastopol. But everybody knew that the breakthrough would become a difficult slug out and it needs to be conducted carefully to avoid excessive casualties. All the while Ukraine has to attrite Russians so that once they are ready for a breakthrough, there are no useful Russian reserves left to stop them. Thankfully Russian command has thought that they also need to conduct their own offensives in the east and in Kherson, which have led to high losses. Why do you think the Russians are doing that if they have no reserves to use in another portion of the line that is under heavy attack? Why go on the offensive in the east? Like this is what I talked about before.. If you want to live in a world where the Russians are cartoonishly incompetent and have no reason to their actions then ok.. sometimes you'll be proven right I guess. Russians have done some pretty stupid things at times during this conflict. But the Ukrainians would be well advised to not assume a cake walk is upcoming in the south when the Russians run through their last moblik and plan / act accordingly.
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Jul 15, 2023 19:57
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Starsfan posted:Why do you think the Russians are doing that if they have no reserves to use in another portion of the line that is under heavy attack? Why go on the offensive in the east? They are trying to water down the Ukrainian offensive by drawing their reserves into combat in those areas.
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Jul 15, 2023 20:00
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Starsfan posted:https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/15/us/politics/ukraine-leopards-bradleys-counteroffensive.html Neither of those say that the Ukrainians got the 'worst of it', and brief operational pauses are normal even if things are going fine. Sometimes you gotta figure out if you really are using your resources wisely and not hammering the wrong spot with an insufficient amount of material and people. EDIT: Also "The Ukrainians were losing until the Russians withdrew" is a pretty funny way to describe what happened. Kchama fucked around with this message at 20:03 on Jul 15, 2023 |
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Jul 15, 2023 20:01
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Starsfan posted:I'm going by reports in western media that indicate that Ukraine and their western advisors have recognized that Ukraine's approach to the counter offensive was not working and they subsequently changed up to a different approach that they hope will be able to salvage some sort of results out of the whole thing down the line. Starsfan posted:https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/15/us/politics/ukraine-leopards-bradleys-counteroffensive.html I don't really understand your choice of vocabulary. They are 'hoping to salvage something'? Why would it just be hope and not the actual competence of re-evaluating and adapting as you point out in your second post? In Kherson 'the Russians withdrew across the river'? That sounds pretty revisionist, does anyone talk about when the Wehrmacht withdrew to Berlin?
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Jul 15, 2023 20:01
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Rugz posted:I don't really understand your choice of vocabulary. They are 'hoping to salvage something'? Why would it just be hope and not the actual competence of re-evaluating and adapting as you point out in your second post? I use hope because whether they meet their goals or not is something that is prospective and in the future and can't be determined one way or the other right now. My recollection of the end of the Kherson offensive was that Russia did indeed decide to withdraw their forces while Ukraine was preparing another large scale attack. Russia claimed that it was because Ukraine was threatening to blow up the dam which would have isolated their best units in the Russian army (which were the ones fighting in Kherson) on the other side of the Dnieper river. They apparently did this without alerting the Ukrainians who seemed to proceed cautiously expecting a trap and eventually found an evacuated city.
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Jul 15, 2023 20:05
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Starsfan posted:I use hope because whether they meet their goals or not is something that is prospective and in the future and can't be determined one way or the other right now. Doesn't sound like Ukraine was losing in Kherson, just that they were surprised they were winning hard enough to convince Russia to flee that they didn't take advantage of it like they could have.
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Jul 15, 2023 20:09
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