(Thread IKs:
fatherboxx)
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spankmeister posted:They were denied access to the roofs though. "No we didn't set explosives on the roof. And no you can't go check" Like my god, at least go hide the explosives and then let them check or something.
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Jul 25, 2023 08:30
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| # ? Jun 2, 2024 02:21 |
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Apart from the vast minefields, it looks like another big struggle for Ukraine is Russia's electromagnetic warfare systems. The two drones downed in Moscow illustrate the point, but the main issue is probably with effectively targeting ammunition depots, logistics centres, etc at the frontline. https://tsn.ua/svit/ataka-moskvi-bezpilotnikami-ignat-poyasniv-yak-rf-zbivaye-droni-2376319.html Yuriy Ihnat, spokesman for the Air Force of Ukraine posted:Unfortunately, the occupiers are far ahead of us in this matter. They've been making a lot of progress in developing their electromagnetic warfare capabilities. It is not necessary to shoot down a drone with anti-aircraft missiles or cannons, it can simply be forced to fall, land, or be intercepted by means of electromagnetic warfare. Russia has powerful stations today that interfere with the work of our Defence Forces. We extensively use quadcopter-type and other drones, which causes problems for the occupiers, so they made sure to have enough of these systems. Plus, Ukraine also has to use costly ammunition to down cheap Shaheds. Pretty sure there were some electromagnetic warfare systems supplied to Ukraine, but clearly there are not nearly enough of them.
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Jul 25, 2023 11:17
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Paladinus posted:
I think they were mostly hand-held stuff vs. larger stuff on an AFV chassis or hard-mounted, so probably much smaller effect radius on each?
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Jul 25, 2023 12:38
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It seems pretty clear to me that drone and ground-based suppression of enemy air defences, close air support by drone and anti-drone defences are going to be intensive areas of research after this war. One thing I'm wondering is, what's stopping Ukraine and allies from fielding really cheap decoy drones to keep Russian AA busy and visible?
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Jul 25, 2023 12:53
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I am not sure a cheap decoy drone would be cheaper than most drones they use...?
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Jul 25, 2023 12:56
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Jasper Tin Neck posted:It seems pretty clear to me that drone and ground-based suppression of enemy air defences, close air support by drone and anti-drone defences are going to be intensive areas of research after this war. It has a camera, why not use it for recon?
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Jul 25, 2023 13:39
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More progress: https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1683821814085038081 
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Jul 25, 2023 15:01
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https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1683863673800994816?s=20 Welp.
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Jul 25, 2023 17:11
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An additional thread on earlier reporting on the same clinic: https://twitter.com/kromark/status/1683869564860342276?t=sE-UKbeLYskwNnQmaYUWmQ&s=19
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Jul 25, 2023 17:15
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Let's get real, if you polled billionaires around the world probably 80%+ of them are in alignment with Priogzhin on the harvesting bodily fluids from 18 year old virgins to improve your vitality and a solid 30%+ have foreign objects implanted into their reproductive organs.
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Jul 25, 2023 17:19
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Djarum posted:Well theoretically you could make a larger unmanned aircraft that is still much smaller than a manned to do the same mission. Most people don’t realize more than half the weight of any airframe is for stuff to keep the pilot alive. If you eliminate the pilot you can make things in different shapes that are impossible with a pilot, make them smaller/lighter and carry more fuel/ordinance. The role that attack helicopters or CAS is not going away, far from it, but what is used in that role is going to change. It is a very dangerous job, especially in a hot war where the causality rate is astronomical, replacing that with an unmanned option where you can keep those piloting them far away from the front and safe is about as great of an idea as possible. Same with EW/SEAD/DEAD missions. Being able to replace that with an unmanned option is game changing. Who cares if you lose an airframe that costs a fraction of what the pilot does? This reeks of the techbro concept where it somehow becomes the goal to remove the pilot and where the human is seen as some sort of a disadvantage to the flying machine. Except it is the absolute contrary! A human is real good at making decisions on the fly, far smarter than any machine, and has split second ability to prioritize targets and make crucial decisions on the fly (heh heh) in countless situations. Even in dogfights the ability of a human to choose the correct maneuver and counter to their opponent's moves is something a machine could only dream of. Seconds of lag and choppy uplinks will not replace that, and neither will they replace the human's ability to look around. Pilots dying in war is bad, but it's even worse when you can't achieve your mission. Human life is just the currency you gotta spend in order to achieve the mission.
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Jul 25, 2023 17:22
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gbs made a good thing so i bought it enjoy
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Jul 25, 2023 17:22
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Starsfan posted:Let's get real, if you polled billionaires around the world probably 80%+ of them are in alignment with Priogzhin on the harvesting bodily fluids from 18 year old virgins to improve your vitality and a solid 30%+ have foreign objects implanted into their reproductive organs. My favorite was the techbro CEO that was getting regular blood transfusions from their own son.
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Jul 25, 2023 17:29
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Hope this doesn't result in a news cycle with Prigozhin sending dickpics to prove his size, steel satellites and all
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Jul 25, 2023 17:29
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j3DKl3BXgNU (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Jul 25, 2023 18:06
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Cpt_Obvious posted:My favorite was the techbro CEO that was getting regular blood transfusions from their own son. Again, it's surprising how little that narrows things down
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Jul 25, 2023 18:24
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So I guess someone forgot to tell the Ukranian forces that the counteroffensive had already failed, can we get a note to them or something before they reach the russian border
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Jul 25, 2023 18:28
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Staluigi posted:So I guess someone forgot to tell the Ukranian forces that the counteroffensive had already failed, can we get a note to them or something before they reach the russian border It will be a long time before anyone reaches the Russian border, this is part of retaking Bakhmut which would put Ukraine back at where it was at the start of the year.
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Jul 25, 2023 18:45
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Forgive my ignorance, is the Tendar account reliable?
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Jul 25, 2023 18:52
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Discendo Vox posted:Forgive my ignorance, is the Tendar account reliable? It tends to be a bit sensationalist. They'll use phrases such as "Massive Ukrainian victory!" to describe retaking a few hundred meters. It's tough, because to the units winning those few hundred meters it is a massive victory, but in the context of the greater war it's not.
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Jul 25, 2023 18:54
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Staluigi posted:So I guess someone forgot to tell the Ukranian forces that the counteroffensive had already failed, can we get a note to them or something before they reach the russian border Ukraine has actually been at this point before (troops inside the town of Klischiivka) a couple weeks ago, they got counter attacked and pushed back into their starting point in the fields to the north / west. I would caution to wait and see how things develop before drawing any conclusions. The Russians have a lot of resources in the area, and are apparently sending in more (if you believe Russian telegram)
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Jul 25, 2023 18:56
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Starsfan posted:Let's get real, if you polled billionaires around the world probably 80%+ of them are in alignment with Priogzhin on the harvesting bodily fluids from 18 year old virgins to improve your vitality and a solid 30%+ have foreign objects implanted into their reproductive organs. yeah the average billionaire is an insane psychopath and their new pet obsession is living forever, and they think vampire stories hold the key
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Jul 25, 2023 18:57
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A Washington post write up on the coup: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/07/25/putin-prigozhin-rebellion-kremlin-disarray/ I don't think there's any new info, just more corroboration but what I found really funny: quote:Many on the local level could not believe the Wagner rebellion could be happening without some degree of agreement with the Kremlin, the security officials said — despite Putin’s emergency televised address to the nation on the morning of the mutiny in which he vowed tough action to stop the rebels, and despite a warrant issued for Prigozhin’s arrest for “incitement to insurrection” on the eve of his march to Moscow. Just ridiculously hilarious that people on the ground were paralyzed by inaction because just like us, they were wondering if Putin was playing 12d chess and wanted it to happen.
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Jul 25, 2023 19:11
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WarpedLichen posted:A Washington post write up on the coup: Literally 1991 and a preview of very likely things to come
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Jul 25, 2023 19:13
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Here's a translation of a pro-Russian milblogger's assessment of the current situation: https://twitter.com/ItsArtoir/status/1683871771840086017 Interesting to see such a positive evaluation of Ukraine's counter offensive from a source like this. The ability of evidence based reporting to penetrate Russian propaganda is nice to see.
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Jul 25, 2023 19:17
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Chalks posted:Here's a translation of a pro-Russian milblogger's assessment of the current situation: It says his analysis is based on western OSINT info, aka Oryx lol I mean yeah if you take the Oryx numbers at face value Russia's in big trouble.. of course it's a question how Russia has lasted this long if you take the Oryx numbers at face value **if you do take Oryx numbers at face value fair enough, but it should be pointed out that this source is simply echoing the assessment of analysis that we already know about and is commonly posted in this thread and elsewhere, there is no added value from the fact that it is parroted by a russian mil blogger. Starsfan fucked around with this message at 19:41 on Jul 25, 2023 |
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Jul 25, 2023 19:38
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Starsfan posted:It says his analysis is based on western OSINT info, aka Oryx lol Oryx-numbers are only the confirmed ones, actual Russian losses are probably far higher.
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Jul 25, 2023 19:45
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Starsfan posted:of course it's a question how Russia has lasted this long if you take the Oryx numbers at face value They started with a USSR's worth of stuff to lose AFAIK Oryx hasn't made claims that can be disproven
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Jul 25, 2023 19:50
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Libluini posted:Oryx-numbers are only the confirmed ones, actual Russian losses are probably far higher. I've observed evidence and arguments that Oryx has been shown to accept photoshopped images, multiples of the same equipment being destroyed from different angles (and sometimes not from different angles) photos of Ukrainian equipment which is claimed to be Russian. Their verification process appears to have serious shortfalls. I will place weight on first hand testimony as to the nature of the fighting as well as the results which are obvious from the development / progress of the war. I don't place any weight on motivated OSINT work from either side as an accurate depiction of conditions on the ground.
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Jul 25, 2023 19:52
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Yeah, oryx is just a handful of volunteers, like it or not, even with best intentions they can't cross reference every new claim with their whole database, which combined with the fact that we don't know the extent of what doesn't get reported makes the whole project of dubious value other than a trivia list. imo it's best to treat it the same as those"official" UA daily kill figures; maybe they represent real trends in an abstract way, but not much beyond that
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Jul 25, 2023 19:58
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Starsfan posted:I've observed evidence and arguments that Oryx has been shown to accept photoshopped images, multiples of the same equipment being destroyed from different angles (and sometimes not from different angles) photos of Ukrainian equipment which is claimed to be Russian. Their verification process appears to have serious shortfalls. Can you repost the evidence here? It would be interesting since Oryx has a link to every loss, it would be fun to see T-72 162 is the same as T-72 42 or whatever. I don't really pay too much attention to loss numbers since we don't know how much stuff Russians had in soviet era stockpiles or are currently producing, so I'm not sure what part of Oryx numbers would put Russians in big trouble either.
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Jul 25, 2023 20:02
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Starsfan posted:It says his analysis is based on western OSINT info, aka Oryx lol The fact that a pro-Russian mil blogger believes the Oryx numbers is actually pretty significant (it's actually a different independant source, but regardless, they all agree). This is a blogger that would like nothing more than to find reasons to make Russia look good, they have access to all the sources they could possibly need to undermine it, and yet they believe them. You honestly think that if there was evidence that these numbers were fabricated we'd be reading posts like this from pro-Russian sources? It seems to me you're bending over backwards to claim that Ukraine isn't making progress. Even pro-Russian bloggers have the integrity to analyse the situation realistically, what is your excuse? Chalks fucked around with this message at 20:06 on Jul 25, 2023 |
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Jul 25, 2023 20:03
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I don't think its dubious value at all: it serves as a reasonable floor for Russian losses. Understanding that can let us make reasonable assumptions about Russian combat potential, both now (by looking at "recent" losses) as well as the future.
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Jul 25, 2023 20:04
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Chalks posted:The fact that a pro-Russian mil blogger believes the Oryx numbers is actually pretty significant. This is a source that would like nothing more than to find reasons to make Russia look good, they have access to all the sources they could possibly need to undermine it, and yet they believe them. Is there actually any reason to assume Russian milbloggers know wtf they are talking about, other than that their talking points happen to align with our preferences? History is full of grunts on the ground spewing the most ignorant, misleading hogwash imaginable.
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Jul 25, 2023 20:06
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steinrokkan posted:Is there actually any reason to assume Russian milbloggers know wtf they are talking about, other than that their talking points happen to align with our preferences? History is full of grunts on the ground spewing the most ignorant, misleading hogwash imaginable. That also means that first-hand accounts in general shouldn't be listened to. So we might as well just accept that everything is going to be hogwash in some form.
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Jul 25, 2023 20:09
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Kchama posted:That also means that first-hand accounts in general shouldn't be listened to. Actual first hand accounts are fine. Stretching their weight beyond the point of credibility and extrapolating from these anecdotes and "trust me, bro, I've seen some poo poo" platitudes to systemic assessments without proper and qualified analysis is not. That's how you get persistent pseudo-historical myths.
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Jul 25, 2023 20:12
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steinrokkan posted:Is there actually any reason to assume Russian milbloggers know wtf they are talking about, other than that their talking points happen to align with our preferences? History is full of grunts on the ground spewing the most ignorant, misleading hogwash imaginable. I trust pro-Russian bloggers to be pro-Russian. That's not a stretch. This post isn't reporting new evidence. They're saying that they can't see any reasonable way to dispute these numbers, and that the numbers are extremely bad for Russia. I trust that they don't want to be posting this, and would avoid it or spin it if they could.
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Jul 25, 2023 20:13
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steinrokkan posted:Actual first hand accounts are fine. Stretching their weight beyond the point of credibility and extrapolating from these anecdotes and "trust me, bro, I've seen some poo poo" platitudes to systemic assessments without proper and qualified analysis is not. That's how you get persistent pseudo-historical myths. That doesn't align with "Grunts on the ground spew the most misleading, ignorant bullshit" though. If you can't trust what they are saying, then you shouldn't even take them at face value, much less use them for any sort of analysis. EDIT: I'm not even saying I disagree with those words, just that it means they aren't a great source themselves. Kchama fucked around with this message at 20:17 on Jul 25, 2023 |
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Jul 25, 2023 20:15
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Wasn't he incarcerated? The implants in the dick thing is something prisoners do. Though I've always heard it was chipped domino pieces rounded out first.
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Jul 25, 2023 20:17
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Chalks posted:I trust pro-Russian bloggers to be pro-Russian. That's not a stretch. Bring pro-Russian doesn't mean having a correct picture of the state of the Russian war machine on a strategic level or seeing past their sector of the front. Every army is full of doomers who think that their equipment is garbage compared to the enemy and their leaders stupid, even if they end up winning in the end. I wouldn't trust a low ranking us army grunt or an embedded reporter to give me an accurate analysis of the complex outlook of the war in Afghanistan either, I don't see a reason to put greater trust in Russians. steinrokkan fucked around with this message at 20:20 on Jul 25, 2023 |
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Jul 25, 2023 20:18
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