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fatherboxx)
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Staluigi posted:Ukranian breakthrough? I'll believe it when i wake up and the thread has 200 replies 200 new posts could just as likely mean people started arguing about cluster munitions again.
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Jul 27, 2023 04:42
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ISW seem to support the idea of reserves being committed; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-26-2023 Key Points - Ukrainian forces launched a significant mechanized counteroffensive operation in western Zaporizhia Oblast on July 26 and appear to have broken through certain pre-prepared Russian defensive positions south of Orikhiv. The battlefield geometry around Robotyne, as well as the force composition of the Russian elements defending there, offer important color to speculation surrounding the Ukrainian attack and gains. Ukrainians appear to have rotated fresh forces into this area for the operation whereas Russian forces remain pinned to the line apparently without rotation, relief, or significant reinforcement in this sector. Today’s actions around Robotyne are likely the start of any “main thrust” Ukrainian forces might be launching, if the US officials are correct, rather than the sum of such a thrust.
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Jul 27, 2023 05:59
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If it is 'the' main thrust we could expect to see results rather soon (few days time). I hope they are correct in the assessment that Russians there are not being rotated out, as that would mean a lack of reserves in a critical area.
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Jul 27, 2023 07:05
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https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/07/26/drones-ai-ukraine-war-innovation/quote:LVIV, Ukraine — In an open test field in rural Ukraine, a drone equipped with a bomb lost connection with its human operator after coming under attack by electronic jamming equipment — but instead of crashing to the ground, the drone accelerated toward its target and destroyed it. This was bound to happen, civilian drones have some characteristics from being civilian in use. They have problems with connection when low to the ground far away as you're not supposed to be doing that and when connection is lost they either return or land. In FPV attack mode you want the drone to continue on and fly into to the boxy (or boaty) thing in the middle of the camera field of view. Skynet comparisons are inevitable, weapons seeking their target autonomously already exist like the Javelin but this will be quite more impactful. It's just software that controls the drone that makes it into an autonomous weapon.
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Jul 27, 2023 10:46
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Lmao, the Russian government produced a pretty high effort propaganda spot to be used by German fascist as anti-ukrainian propaganda https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1684235390209912833?t=nDXMKylJXuUsMfPNuT3mJw&s=19
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Jul 27, 2023 13:14
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GABA ghoul posted:Lmao, the Russian government produced a pretty high effort propaganda spot to be used by German fascist as anti-ukrainian propaganda Is it as dumb as the "eternal Winter" video they put out last year.  To make this even funnier, look up how much money the German population has send to support Ukraine. Any German party going full Anti-Ukraine would destroy itself I'm sure the AfD will be "thankful" for this "help"
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Jul 27, 2023 13:22
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Libluini posted:Is it as dumb as the "eternal Winter" video they put out last year. Out of curiosity, what is the afD's stance on Ukraine? From what you write I would guess it's something rather wishy-washy? I ask because I recall reading things indicating they would be very open to essentially selling out Ukraine and resuming business as usual with Russia ASAP, but this was a long while ago. Maybe German public opinion nips such ideas in the bud, as it probably has in Italy.
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Jul 27, 2023 13:30
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Fabulous Knight posted:Out of curiosity, what is the afD's stance on Ukraine? From what you write I would guess it's something rather wishy-washy? I ask because I recall reading things indicating they would be very open to essentially selling out Ukraine and resuming business as usual with Russia ASAP, but this was a long while ago. Maybe German public opinion nips such ideas in the bud, as it probably has in Italy. Much like all other opportunist right wing parties I'm sure they're willing to sell out anyone and everyone at the moment it is convenient to them. The problem is that the current mood of their voters in Europe makes it very not convenient to back Russia and that is the sole reason they don't. One Dutch party (FvD) has completely tanked because they kept backing Russia. They most likely kept backing Russia throughout this tanking because they were being paid by Russia to do so.
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Jul 27, 2023 13:55
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Fabulous Knight posted:Out of curiosity, what is the afD's stance on Ukraine? From what you write I would guess it's something rather wishy-washy? I ask because I recall reading things indicating they would be very open to essentially selling out Ukraine and resuming business as usual with Russia ASAP, but this was a long while ago. Maybe German public opinion nips such ideas in the bud, as it probably has in Italy. Afd is explicitly and vehemently pro-Russia, i.e. we should immediately cease all support for Ukraine and let Russia have it. It does collabs with pro-Putin Russian immigrant organizations and also did with the Russian state(before the war). They are also a staple at anti-Ukraine protests or "peace marches". Same as other fascist or neo-nazi organizations. I guess German fascists and neo-nazis don't really identify with the pro-democracy, pro-EU and pluralistic rhetoric of the Ukrainian government. The authocratic, violent and reactionary Russian rhetoric and self-image is much more attractive to them. Plus, the Russian government has spend a lot of money and effort on courting fascist parties like the AfD and providing right-wing domestic propaganda through RT and social media for re-use by them.
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Jul 27, 2023 13:57
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CeeJee posted:https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/07/26/drones-ai-ukraine-war-innovation/
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Jul 27, 2023 14:56
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Looks like Russians have released the first videos of Ukrainian losses past the old line of control: https://twitter.com/GeoConfirmed/status/1684547186560839680 If the bird site gives out, geoconfirmed.org has the map. Bellingcat also has a feature on the very cool Eyes on Russia Map: https://www.bellingcat.com/news/2023/07/24/over-500-days-of-the-russia-ukraine-monitor-map/
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Jul 27, 2023 15:42
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Ridiculous turn in the neverending Seymour Hersh fall from grace https://twitter.com/SevaUT/status/1684573361526169601?t=U7Iq4P8cp-KPKiITaroFkg&s=19
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Jul 27, 2023 16:39
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Fatherboxx, or anybody more knowledgeable on Russia, I would like your take on this weird Moscow Times article: https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/07/26/former-us-official-shares-details-of-secret-track-15-diplomacy-with-moscow-a81972 It has some pretty wild claims by a supposed ex US official: quote:“It was here that we made clear that the U.S. was prepared to work constructively with Russian national security concerns,” the former official added, breaking from the official U.S. line of squeezing Russia financially and isolating it internationally so as to prevent it from continuing its war against Ukraine. quote:He noted that Washington had also offered to help conduct fair referendums in the Russian-occupied territories of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, in which residents would vote on whether they wished to be part of Ukraine or Russia. I mean maybe not so wild if these talks were before the invasion, but I'm not sure if this is just stuff to throw in the tabloid pile or not.
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Jul 27, 2023 16:55
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Worth reading one of Hersh's previous 'transcripts' from Syria if you think this is a new thing. https://twitter.com/AricToler/status/1684555620815368192?s=20
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Jul 27, 2023 17:06
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WarpedLichen posted:Fatherboxx, or anybody more knowledgeable on Russia, I would like your take on this weird Moscow Times article: Finding it weird that Moscow Times got to this story before the usual WaPo or FT. It sure sounds plausible but I think that they are just hyping the status of the former US officials that may not be completely in line with Washington position.
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Jul 27, 2023 17:10
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WarpedLichen posted:.... Hard to imagine having any trust in relation to that.  is the only response.
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Jul 27, 2023 17:12
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Why are you loving a cow, Seymour?
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Jul 27, 2023 17:13
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fatherboxx posted:Ridiculous turn in the neverending Seymour Hersh fall from grace He also seems to be confused about who was the Ukrainian president 2014-2019.
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Jul 27, 2023 17:15
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WarpedLichen posted:Fatherboxx, or anybody more knowledgeable on Russia, I would like your take on this weird Moscow Times article: Reads like pretty milquetoast realpolitik to me, except for the referendum thing. That one sounds more like "we know you know we know what's really going on in the occupied territories", or just bullshit. It is no secret that the USA wants to focus on China, and what Russia is doing is quite inconvenient. Russia's expansionism is bad for US geopolitical goals, but so is Russia collapsing. However, some backroom talks about hypotheticals aren't really all that meaningful unless someone actually bites and people higher up the chain get involved. And "ex US official" really isn't the strongest credential.
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Jul 27, 2023 17:21
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I've just assumed that Hersh's "former US intelligence bigshot" source was Michael Flynn. 
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Jul 27, 2023 17:22
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WarpedLichen posted:Fatherboxx, or anybody more knowledgeable on Russia, I would like your take on this weird Moscow Times article: Isn't that basically the US position during much of the Obama administration? Work with Russia to keep stability, the "reset", etc? It doesn't seem that wild, especially if "former" means "before 2022". He's essentially suggesting a negotiated return to the status quo, which everyone would like but Russia is never going to accept given the enormous loss of life and destruction of their military. Edit: as propaganda I think things like this are probably very sensible, since you're really saying that if someone offs Putin and wants to get out of this mess they can have the good old days again. saratoga fucked around with this message at 17:30 on Jul 27, 2023 |
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Jul 27, 2023 17:27
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saratoga posted:Isn't that basically the US position during much of the Obama administration? Work with Russia to keep stability, the "reset", etc? It doesn't seem that wild, especially if "former" means "before 2022". He's essentially suggesting a negotiated return to the status quo, which everyone would like but Russia is never going to accept given the enormous loss of life and destruction of their military.
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Jul 27, 2023 17:28
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fatherboxx posted:Finding it weird that Moscow Times got to this story before the usual WaPo or FT. It sure sounds plausible but I think that they are just hyping the status of the former US officials that may not be completely in line with Washington position. Everything in the article seems to support this notion.
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Jul 27, 2023 17:38
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OddObserver posted:Obama administration at least have lip service to Ukrainian sovereignty. If you goal is to sow doubt and undermine Putin, probably lip service to Ukraine is not what you want to feeding into Russia.
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Jul 27, 2023 17:39
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It looks like the coup in Niger will have some impact on Ukraine. Is there a good write up on the military faction's background and goals? Niger was one of the four African countries that joined the The Crimea Platform in support of Ukraine's territorial integrity, but there are now Russian flags at pro-coup gatherings, and previous coups like that in the region often ended with the junta aligning with Russia.
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Jul 27, 2023 17:40
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saratoga posted:Isn't that basically the US position during much of the Obama administration? Work with Russia to keep stability, the "reset", etc? It doesn't seem that wild, especially if "former" means "before 2022". He's essentially suggesting a negotiated return to the status quo, which everyone would like but Russia is never going to accept given the enormous loss of life and destruction of their military. I think they're not wild positions pre 2022, but referendums in "Kherson and Zaporizhzhia" suggests this would be post 2022, which is the wild part. I think if its pre 2022, it would still be incredibly dumb to voice because Russia would never trust the US to help hold fair referendums so putting it out there just makes the official seem clueless.
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Jul 27, 2023 18:20
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For those looking for "progress" there is this footage released that occurred in the past few days showing the Ukrainians testing the approach to an AT ditch east of Robotyne. https://twitter.com/moklasen/status/1684586025731993601?s=20 If you want to spin it in a super positive light, you can say that Ukraine has managed to reach the first "main defense line" in a specific locality. If you want to spin in it pro Russian, you can point out that there are many over lapping belts of non contiguous defenses and barriers and that this actually isn't even in the right direction for a push to Tomak to say that this is part of the main defensive line. You can use this map and decide for yourself https://nrg800.users.earthengine.app/view/russianfortifications
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Jul 27, 2023 18:39
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MikeC posted:[...] this actually isn't even in the right direction for a push to Tomak to say that this is part of the main defensive line. Curious why you're making this point? I can see a road leading from Robotyne to Tokmak, so wouldn't bypassing the town put Ukraine on that road? Or would this leave their flanks too exposed or something similar? In other news, Mike Kofman seems a lot more gloomy than before in the latest War on the Rocks podcast: https://warontherocks.com/2023/07/an-inflection-point-in-ukraines-counteroffensive/. He doesn't seem to believe Ukraine will reach any of their major goals during the offensive. With still the perpetual unknown of Russian troop attrition, although he continues to maintain Russians even in the south are not completely without reserves.
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Jul 27, 2023 18:56
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You don't typically "aim" an offensive push directly at a city. You go around the city, isolate the city, and then clear the city. But yes: while getting to the first main defensive belt is an accomplishment, it's taken much longer than Ukraine wanted and demonstrates more Russian military capability and combat potential than anyone on Ukraine's side wants to see.
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Jul 27, 2023 19:19
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Also breaking through a line at any point could force the opponent to pull back troops along a lot of that line to defenses further back, as they'd be risking getting outflanked otherwise. Even if the breakthrough is not at an immediately important spot, any breakthrough can force the rest of the line to buckle. IIRC we saw this at least several times in the Kherson offensive.
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Jul 27, 2023 19:24
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And even if the Russians haven't been attrited to the point where they don't have enough reinforcements to rapidly shore up the defensive line, do they really have enough spare manpower to shore up two? Or three?
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Jul 27, 2023 19:33
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Paranoea posted:Curious why you're making this point? I can see a road leading from Robotyne to Tokmak, so wouldn't bypassing the town put Ukraine on that road? Or would this leave their flanks too exposed or something similar? I'm not really convinced Ukraine is going to succeed in its offensive either. The defenses Russia put up just limit any kind of maneuver and Ukraine can't just send in a whole bunch of F-35s on a SEAD mission and then blast the front lines with strategic bombers to wipe out the defenses and mop up what's left. They can't use CAS, they are only improvising as best they can using artillery which has limited the war to a WW1 style battle of attrition. Basically the cheapest and fastest way for Ukraine to achieve any kind of breakthrough is to try to use artillery and counter battery fire to weaken Russian defenses and presighted artillery assets so that forces traveling slowly across minefields and obstacles don't get stuck and then bombarded to poo poo when the Russians saturate their grid. I think with the DPCIM munitions and counter battery radar provided by the US the Ukrainians managed to achieve fire superiority on the section of the line their mine thrust is located on. But that in itself isn't enough. You still have concealed positions with ATGMs and drones can only do so much especially with all the electronic warfare. Meanwhile there are still KA-52s picking off your tanks and armored vehicles with their own ATGMs without any means to really shoot back given the ranges involved. Since these helicopters fly low, it limits the usefulness of longer ranged air defence assets and many of the "good stuff" is being tied up defending Kiyiv, Kherson, Odessa etc. I think the level of difficult facing this offensive is something even the US military would struggle with and they likely also would take some casualties or even lose a bunch of aircraft. Then there's this : https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/german-papers-ukraine-war-leaked-secret-documents-2023-t65stnldx I think that most of the Ukrainian officers between Captain and General are mostly of a soviet mindset so while the Zaluzhnyi and his immediate circle are of a more modern mindset you still need to delegate the finer points of the war to people who will take your orders, and use troops under their command. Except that the people they're relying on are basically used to solving all their problems with a hammer, and in the absence of a hammer you've given them a laser driven programmable CNC tool. They're going to use it like a hammer and its going to be ruined by the time they are done with it. So now we have western trained troops who on a tactical level may be able to inflict greater casualties than they take and they're being thrust at well defended positions in the hope that the damage they do will outweigh the damage they take and somehow "break" the Russian lines. The Russians can absorb those losses, degrade those fancy new brigades and the conflict will freeze without much gain and with Ukraine taking even more irreplaceable losses. Most of the armored vehicle crews will probably survive more but now they need to replace more tanks that NATO doesn't really have and with the GOP breathing down everyone's necks for the 2024 elections people are going to start asking questions why we're spending so much money on Ukraine when everything at home is falling to pieces. It's not an accurate political rhetoric, but it resonates with increasingly isolationist and authoritarian leaning voters. I'm pretty sure Ukrainian troops would mop the floor with anything Russia has defending the front right now. But what they have can't actually properly engage because it's been ensnared in various obstacles and wrecked with long range fire before they can make contact with the defenders. TL;DR: Ukraine wants to fight like NATO, but lacks NATO style resources and skills. Best case scenario for this offensive is they take back Bakhmut and maybe a few other villages and call that a victory before we go back to trying to get more weapons and build more combat capability for round 2 the following year. That is assuming the US doesn't pull the plug on support and hands everything over to Russia (Trump wins election scenario).
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Jul 27, 2023 19:35
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Kraftwerk posted:
Counterpoint: the Russian army are currently defending like the Soviet army, but lack the resources and skills of the Soviet army. We'll see which imperfect approach is the most imperfect soon enough.
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Jul 27, 2023 19:41
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It's been pointed out that although Russia has fortified in depth, they don't appear to be capable of manning in depth. Time will tell but it takes a lot of infantry and equipment to effectively man defenses like this and it would be very true to form if Russia was building to doctrine but not manning to doctrine. Hard to tell from satellite images alone.
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Jul 27, 2023 19:43
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If we doubled the size of the attacking forces I think this would be a much simpler conversation. But alas we live in the real world so we have to hope this goes through. I'm sure there's pessimists like me who probably thought after Dunkirk that WW2 was over.
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Jul 27, 2023 19:47
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Yeah, counterpoint #2: you've been wrong about pretty much everything you've ever predicted itt.
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Jul 27, 2023 20:03
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Kraftwerk posted:If we doubled the size of the attacking forces I think this would be a much simpler conversation. But alas we live in the real world so we have to hope this goes through. I have to admit that I would have felt pretty hopeless after the fall of France if I was alive back then. But yeah, western support is key to make sure whatever the status quo is right now isn't the status quo for the future. Expecting Ukraine to be able to fight like the US has fought in its recent wars is highly unfair. Wasn't the US expecting right when the invasion started that Ukraine would be overrun and Ukrainians would have to resort to years of guerilla warfare?
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Jul 27, 2023 20:04
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Eric Cantonese posted:
Not just the US but basically everyone for the first week or so IIRC. Maybe more. And going by memory, it was mostly removed as a potential scenario after the columns towards Kiev retreated. lilljonas fucked around with this message at 20:21 on Jul 27, 2023 |
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Jul 27, 2023 20:17
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https://twitter.com/Lyla_lilas/status/1684644113394593793 https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1684638652880596992 Edit-changed source tweet Zelensky visits the Cathedral in Odesa that was hit the other day. His ability/gumption to move around Ukraine is crazy to me. It probably resonates well with the public and the troops.
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Jul 27, 2023 20:24
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Eric Cantonese posted:I have to admit that I would have felt pretty hopeless after the fall of France if I was alive back then. because i hate myself, i recently read every ny times front page from 1930-1941, so something like 4000 pages. I did it to get an idea of a couple things: a real chronology of events leading up to ww2, differences between day reports and what we know actually happened (surprisingly they were very well informed though, even stuff like purges are pretty well reported within 24 hours), the number of mentions of stuff happening to jews (the nytimes was reporting deportations to concentration camps as far back as 33/34), and just a general sense of the public mood in the years leading up to the war. The fall of france is certainly an interesting time period, while you can certainly sense panic, but it was such an incredibly brief event, like a matter of days and it was over. And in that sense, without internet, the news paper only updating once in the morning, the daily reports were somewhat positive because of the success of the evacuation. And then suddenly a lot of reports about the battle of britain, which is mostly pretty positive because german losses racked up very quickly. I got a real feeling they were optimistic was that hitler would ask for a peace in his favor having walloped france's government, but of course, he invades russia instead within about a year... which he did a very bad job hiding plans for. everybody know he was going to do it seemingly by summer 41. but yeah the fog of war is a very real thing, and there are more articles in there than anything else about offensives or 'breakthroughs' or whatnot which turn out to be fruitless after a matter of weeks or months. this seemed particularly bad during the Spanish civil war, where most people seemed to think the rebels had zero chance. ethanol fucked around with this message at 21:02 on Jul 27, 2023 |
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Jul 27, 2023 20:48
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