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The Lone Badger
Sep 24, 2007

Nitrousoxide posted:

The answer to this is yes she could, if she could set up a rule-of-three.

She’s a Villain and he’s a Hero. The rule-of-three would never favour her.

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Nitrousoxide
May 30, 2011

do not buy a oneplus phone



The Lone Badger posted:

She’s a Villain and he’s a Hero. The rule-of-three would never favour her.

Villains can (and do) use the rule-of-three against each other. While the Story would certainly conspire to make it extremely difficult to set one up against a hero I don't think there's a hard and fast rule preventing its reversal

I believe as long as she loses the first and ties the second she'd gain the win on the third engagement.

Edit: In fact, doesn't the Tyrant use the rule-of-three against heroes?

nrook
Jun 25, 2009

Just let yourself become a worthless person!

Milkfred E. Moore posted:

I've definitely called it that, or "toybox worldbuilding."

Alright, glad to hear I didn't misremember. I think the post is years old but it struck me as a very clear way to describe what is actually common between the various sorts of popular web fiction.

Bremen
Jul 20, 2006

Our God..... is an awesome God

Ytlaya posted:

SupSup 114 I think the only thing I somewhat sympathize with Jessica about is "convincing Lute he won't become Avowed." It was (probably) the wrong thing to do, but I can understand wanting to prevent him from going through an experience that was super traumatic to her. Of course, she doesn't really see the whole picture - that she's just trading one trauma for another, more drawn-out one (being treated like poo poo by his peers as a presumed 'whiff'). But that's still probably the whole reason Lute was able to find his current passion and become a serious musician. He would have probably ended up like most of his cousins otherwise.

What was completely unforgivable, though, was Jessica knowingly using Lute's fear of her dying to manipulate him. That was completely hosed up no matter how you look at it.


I mean, (SupSup 114) Lute was the child of two whiffs no matter what she told him. Her telling him he'd never be avowed had nothing to do with the bullying, and if anything might have made it easier for him to accept.

Bremen fucked around with this message at 00:07 on Dec 15, 2023

Wittgen
Oct 13, 2012

We have decided to decline your offer of a butt kicking.

Bremen posted:

I mean, (SupSup 114) Lute was the child of two whiffs no matter what she told him. Her telling him he'd never be avowed had nothing to do with the bullying, and if anything might have made it easier for him to accept.

I think you might have missed something big. (SupSup 114) Lute is not the child of two whiffs. Jessica impregnated herself with the sperm of some kind of high rank. She knew Lute was likely to be an avowed, but she hid it from everyone so that there was no chance Lute could experience her particular trauma.

It's possible she even married another whiff purely to have a child who wouldn't experience what she did.


But maybe I'm misunderstanding what you're getting at.

navyjack
Jul 15, 2006



Nitrousoxide posted:

Villains can (and do) use the rule-of-three against each other. While the Story would certainly conspire to make it extremely difficult to set one up against a hero I don't think there's a hard and fast rule preventing its reversal

I believe as long as she loses the first and ties the second she'd gain the win on the third engagement.

Edit: In fact, doesn't the Tyrant use the rule-of-three against heroes?

Dunno about my Best Boy, but 90% sure that Akua/Heiress did

Bremen
Jul 20, 2006

Our God..... is an awesome God

Wittgen posted:

I think you might have missed something big. (SupSup 114) Lute is not the child of two whiffs. Jessica impregnated herself with the sperm of some kind of high rank. She knew Lute was likely to be an avowed, but she hid it from everyone so that there was no chance Lute could experience her particular trauma.

It's possible she even married another whiff purely to have a child who wouldn't experience what she did.


But maybe I'm misunderstanding what you're getting at.

No, I'm pretty sure (SupSup 114) Lute is Jessica and Cyril's kid. A lot of people are very skeptical about it, because they don't think it fits that two whiffs could have an S-class kid, while Jessica apparently still hoped he'd be selected, but was far from sure he would be.

Patrick Spens
Jul 21, 2006

"Every quarterback says they've got guts, But how many have actually seen 'em?"
Pillbug
Soup's Up.

Jessica is adamant that Cyril's his dad. But she also hoped that Lute would get chosen by the contract. So either she's lying about who Lute's dad is (this what everyone assumes) or she had some other reason to hope he got selected.

blastron
Dec 11, 2007

Don't doodle on it!


SoupSup 114 Also, nobody knows at all how the Contract selects people, so they’re relying on statistics. There’s a strong correlation between having Avowed parents and getting selected, but (as far as us readers know) no causal link has been found. “The child of two whiffs cannot possibly be selected” is an inference from incomplete data, not a hard-and-fast rule, so it’s entirely possible that Lute’s parents are exactly who we were told they are, with no trickery involved.

e: We also already know that Hazel was a super special child bred from super special genes and wound up a B, which is another point of data that doesn’t neatly fit the prevailing in-universe theory of the heritability of superpowers.

blastron fucked around with this message at 04:38 on Dec 15, 2023

Ytlaya
Nov 13, 2005

^^^ The Hazel situation isn't super unusual, though. She's still at the lower-end of what would be expected for the child of two high-ranks. IIRC it's considered reasonably plausible to end up within a couple ranks of your parents, so the child of two S-Ranks being a B-Rank isn't that weird (while it would be weird if she ended up, say, a D-Rank). A lot of the assumption of her being S-Rank was because of whatever word-chain related talents she has, which was basically just Aulia's bizarre and flawed understanding of magic leading her to the wrong conclusion that she was an S-Rank shoe-in.

Lute being the genetic child of Jessica and Cyril is basically something that is possible, but very unlikely.


Bremen posted:

No, I'm pretty sure (SupSup 114) Lute is Jessica and Cyril's kid. A lot of people are very skeptical about it, because they don't think it fits that two whiffs could have an S-class kid, while Jessica apparently still hoped he'd be selected, but was far from sure he would be.

It's very strongly implied that he isn't the genetic father. The only one insisting he is is Jessica, who has an obvious incentive to not reveal that she's been lying to her son (and everyone else).

Lute himself explains the reasoning for assuming that Cyril isn't his genetic father. There are basically two options:
- Cyril isn't the genetic father. This is something Aulia also believes to be true, and their family is no stranger to using high-rank sperm donors.
- Lute is a "miracle" (as he put it) and a genuinely random S-Rank.

Lute implies that all the evidence points towards the children of "whiffs" also being "whiffs," and "whiffs" effectively just being completely normal people as far as the System is concerned. This seemed like one of Sleyca's (sometimes overly) conspicuous responses to the reader comments of people speculating about grandchildren of Avowed still having a higher chance of being Avowed. And if this is common knowledge to Lute, it would also be for Jessica. But Jessica clearly implies that she actually viewed Lute becoming an Avowed as a reasonable possibility, but still wanted to mentally prepare him for it not being the case. Basically her attitude is consistent with a situation where she thought he had a 50/50 (or something non-trivial like that) chance. If Cyril were the genetic dad, she would be genuinely surprised by Lute being an Avowed, instead of happy/relieved (which was her actual reaction). For whatever reason, she obviously knew it was a reasonable possibility.

The most simple way to think of it is that it's like someone winning the lottery in a situation where they had the means to cheat available to them. Is it more likely that they won it by pure chance, or that they took advantage of those means?

Ytlaya fucked around with this message at 04:48 on Dec 15, 2023

Nitrousoxide
May 30, 2011

do not buy a oneplus phone



blastron posted:

SoupSup 114 Also, nobody knows at all how the Contract selects people, so they’re relying on statistics. There’s a strong correlation between having Avowed parents and getting selected, but (as far as us readers know) no causal link has been found. “The child of two whiffs cannot possibly be selected” is an inference from incomplete data, not a hard-and-fast rule, so it’s entirely possible that Lute’s parents are exactly who we were told they are, with no trickery involved.

e: We also already know that Hazel was a super special child bred from super special genes and wound up a B, which is another point of data that doesn’t neatly fit the prevailing in-universe theory of the heritability of superpowers.

SupSup 114:
Alden does give a reasonably succinct summary of his best guess at why people get picked in 112.

quote:

He gave Lute his cheerfullest smile. “I’m ninety percent sure the phrase ‘chaos potential’ has to do with how likely a person is to turn into something that could be classified as a demon in the event of a chaos exposure.”
...
“Well, part two of my theory is that the System fixes the chaos vulnerabilities a person might have in the process of making us Avowed, so there’s no reason for the hate groups to use it against any of us. We’re better for handling chaos than regular people, not worse. As promised really. The Artonans did say they were ultimately making Avowed to help them out with chaos problems.” He paused. “Also, just because some Avowed might have high chaos potential prior to being chosen, that doesn’t mean all of us do. I don’t think that, actually.”

The System had said it stabilized existences. It could be picking just the people who had a mix of high enough authority and an unusual vulnerability to chaos. Or it could be picking everyone on Earth who was naturally above the authority threshold for F-rank and granting them affixations and further stability. Or it could be weighing multiple qualities to assess a person’s value as a future Avowed as well as their risk of demonifying.

He didn’t know which it was or if some third or fourth factor was at play, but he didn’t believe it was pure chaos potential.

Because Gorgon had done something to Alden before the System had gotten to him. And he had done such a good job at it that the Earth System had mentioned it was a positive, and she had commented on how exceptional Gorgon’s work on his was.

But the Earth System had still picked him. And stabilized him some more with the affixation.

It might have done it just because I was already on its to-be-Avowed list, and it wasn’t able or willing to remove me from it for some reason.

He doubted that was it.

“Oh, so you don’t necessarily think chaos potential makes us Avowed. You think it’s an additional wrinkle in the situation? What do you think makes the System pick someone then?”

“In the interest of not having an extremely long talk about alien philosophy,” said Alden, “let’s call it power.”

Lute nodded. “Power. Most people I knew growing up thought that they either had an ability to contain more power than regular people and that was why the System would choose them to hold magic or that they were born with some kind of power and the System has the ability to wake it up and turn it into magic.”

More the second one, thought Alden.

“As far as I know, my family pretty much all thinks some version of the second. There are some other theories. But it doesn’t really matter which one you look at…if it’s even a little reasonable, it has to take into account the fact that two superhumans usually have superhuman children. Which means it’s not random. The special thing, whatever it is, is inside you.”

Wittgen
Oct 13, 2012

We have decided to decline your offer of a butt kicking.
There's also more direct hints. SupSup 114 For example, Jessica talks about how she maybe pushed Lute away from wordchains a little too hard because she didn't want anyone to be suspicious if he showed talent. Why would she be worried about being suspicious if Cyril was the genetic father? Chance of being avowed is less than one in ten thousand for the general population.

Einander
Sep 14, 2008

"Yeh've forged a magnificent sword."

"This one's only practice. The real sword I intend to forge will be three times longer."

"Can there really be a sword as monstrous as that in this world?"

"Yes. I can see that sword... Somewhere out there..."
SupSup 114 On Lute's parentage: on the other hand, the two people we see who are pretty sure Cyril can't be Lute's dad are Lute and Aulia, both of whom I would expect to be wrong about this sort of thing as a result of their personal blinkers. So having them advocate for the theory made it seem less credible, especially since that sort of misunderstanding is in the same dramatic vein as the rest of the Chainer flashback arc.

Plus, given the variability of ranks, a purely genetic "selectable as Avowed" trait is not going to be reflected in just one part of the genome, any more than turning one gene on or off is going to remove someone's eyes. That means that the child of two non-Avowed born to Avowed parents is still going to be notably higher probability to have the trait than the standard population, because both parents will be partial carriers.

If we get more evidence, then I'll take "Cyril is not Lute's father" as more likely. Right now, it just seems like one more way the Velra family is loving up their interpersonal relationships.

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009
SupSup 114 I am also not sure it's all genetics. Given how magic seems to care about symbolism, it's possible that whether the baby came from a test tube or from the old fashioned way may matter, or it might matter if the parents love each other. .

Edit: There may be anecdata on children of "whiffs" but how many of those came from weird eugenics experiments?

OddObserver fucked around with this message at 05:15 on Dec 15, 2023

Bremen
Jul 20, 2006

Our God..... is an awesome God

Ytlaya posted:

It's very strongly implied that he isn't the genetic father. The only one insisting he is is Jessica, who has an obvious incentive to not reveal that she's been lying to her son (and everyone else).

Lute himself explains the reasoning for assuming that Cyril isn't his genetic father. There are basically two options:
- Cyril isn't the genetic father. This is something Aulia also believes to be true, and their family is no stranger to using high-rank sperm donors.
- Lute is a "miracle" (as he put it) and a genuinely random S-Rank.

Lute implies that all the evidence points towards the children of "whiffs" also being "whiffs," and "whiffs" effectively just being completely normal people as far as the System is concerned. This seemed like one of Sleyca's (sometimes overly) conspicuous responses to the reader comments of people speculating about grandchildren of Avowed still having a higher chance of being Avowed. And if this is common knowledge to Lute, it would also be for Jessica. But Jessica clearly implies that she actually viewed Lute becoming an Avowed as a reasonable possibility, but still wanted to mentally prepare him for it not being the case. Basically her attitude is consistent with a situation where she thought he had a 50/50 (or something non-trivial like that) chance. If Cyril were the genetic dad, she would be genuinely surprised by Lute being an Avowed, instead of happy/relieved (which was her actual reaction). For whatever reason, she obviously knew it was a reasonable possibility.

The most simple way to think of it is that it's like someone winning the lottery in a situation where they had the means to cheat available to them. Is it more likely that they won it by pure chance, or that they took advantage of those means?


SupSup (114) Or as a third option, there's something else going on. One idea that's kind of far out but has been tossed around is that Jessica really was genetically engineered with Artonan genes, and maybe it ended up giving her an authority sense, so the system passed on her due to the whole trauma deal. Or the same thing that happened with Hazel but worse, it's been implied trying to conceive and raise kids specifically to be avowed seems to mess with the system; that was even hinted here when Aulia talked about how the Artonans refused to tell her what kids would be avowed because that could result in her raising them "improperly".

So honestly my guess is Jessica would normally have been avowed but something interfered. There's just so much going on that they don't understand, and hints that they don't even realize they don't understand it, so when the story tells us Jessica absolutely insists Cyril is Lute's dad, my strong suspicion is that she's telling the truth and that's another hint there's something going on.

Or it could just be that someone with 0 avowed parents buy 4 avowed grandparents is still more likely to be avowed than a random human because heritage can work like that, and all the people saying otherwise are being idiots because it's a blind spot to them. Given the length of time Avowed have been around (particularly the amount of time Anesidora has been around grouping them all together), the low chance of whiffs, and the low chance of two whiffs deciding to marry and have kids, there can't be that many examples to look at. And if there were a few they could have been written off the same way as Lute is, clearly the mom had an affair.

Bremen fucked around with this message at 06:43 on Dec 15, 2023

Nitrousoxide
May 30, 2011

do not buy a oneplus phone



Bremen posted:

SupSup (114) Or as a third option, there's something else going on. One idea that's kind of far out but has been tossed around is that Jessica really was genetically engineered with Artonan genes, and maybe it ended up giving her an authority sense, so the system passed on her due to the whole trauma deal. Or the same thing that happened with Hazel but worse, it's been implied trying to conceive and raise kids specifically to be avowed seems to mess with the system; that was even hinted here when Aulia talked about how the Artonans refused to tell her what kids would be avowed because that could result in her raising them "improperly".

So honestly my guess is Jessica would normally have been avowed but something interfered. There's just so much going on that they don't understand, and hints that they don't even realize they don't understand it, so when the story tells us Jessica absolutely insists Cyril is Lute's dad, my strong suspicion is that she's telling the truth and that's another hint there's something going on.

Or it could just be that someone with 0 avowed parents buy 4 avowed grandparents is still more likely to be avowed than a random human because heritage can work like that, and all the people saying otherwise are being idiots because it's a blind spot to them. Given the length of time Avowed have been around, the low chance of whiffs, and the low chance of two whiffs deciding to marry and have kids, there can't be that many examples to look at.


SupSup 114

Jessica absolutely does not have an authority sense. Mother told Alden that he is so far ahead of any other humans in spellcasting that it may as well not even be considered a race.

Bremen
Jul 20, 2006

Our God..... is an awesome God

Nitrousoxide posted:

SupSup 114

Jessica absolutely does not have an authority sense. Mother told Alden that he is so far ahead of any other humans in spellcasting that it may as well not even be considered a race.

Specifically (SupSup 114) she told him he was so far ahead of any human avowed it couldn't be considered a race.

But yeah, it's an out there theory, just one I found interesting.

Kyoujin
Oct 7, 2009
Calamitous Bob 184 (patreon) what a great capstone chapter.

The "Harrak is eternal" speech was pretty funny considering New Harrak is 2-3 years old and only recently officially recognized yet perfectly in character for a leader of zealots.

While Viv was describing the mishmash abomination of a mech, I was disappointed Solfis wouldn't be there to witness that travesty. Very glad with how things panned out for a hilarious ending to the fall of an isolationist dictator.

90s Cringe Rock
Nov 29, 2006
:gay:
whats the current re: trailer year

https://twitter.com/katie_dey/status/1735802772761796781

Tagichatn
Jun 7, 2009

Is it time to post this mashup again?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WZU2PDO33IU

Ytlaya
Nov 13, 2005

SupSup 115 - Aww, very sweet that Lute now has a good friend for literally the first time in his life. Looking forward to Alden/Lute/Haoyu going to these Velra social events.

I'm guessing that this will be the main subplot for a while, maybe until Alden's next affixation.


Bremen posted:

SupSup (114)
Or it could just be that someone with 0 avowed parents buy 4 avowed grandparents is still more likely to be avowed than a random human because heritage can work like that, and all the people saying otherwise are being idiots because it's a blind spot to them. Given the length of time Avowed have been around (particularly the amount of time Anesidora has been around grouping them all together), the low chance of whiffs, and the low chance of two whiffs deciding to marry and have kids, there can't be that many examples to look at. And if there were a few they could have been written off the same way as Lute is, clearly the mom had an affair.


The bolded is what I initially thought (I think I may have even said as much in the past in this thread, though that may have been a Patreon comment or something instead), but it just seems deeply implausible that a family like the Velras would blindly make an assumption like that, when they care so much about family members becoming Avowed. And the segment I referenced just very conspicuously felt like it was intended to directly address people suspecting that grandchildren of Avowed could still have a higher chance of becoming Avowed. IIRC it says that even though there aren't a huge number, there have still been enough grandchildren of Avowed that there's no reason to think it's much more likely than it is for any other non-Avowed person. At the very least, we can confidently say that the chance is still very low. Even if the number of "grandchildren of Avowed but children of non-Avowed" is too small to confidently assert anything, it's still probably high enough to know "it's still a low chance."

Also, and much more persuasively IMO, there's the thing (I think) I mentioned about Jessica clearly anticipating Lute possibly becoming Avowed. If there's just an Anesidoran cultural norm to wrongly believe that grandchildren of Avowed aren't any more likely to become Avowed than "normal" people globally, that would also apply to Jessica. But Jessica's behavior is consistent with her thinking there's a decent chance of Lute becoming Avowed (which makes sense if one genetic parent was Avowed and the other - her - wasn't).

There's no verification (and probably never will be), but I'd be willing to bet this is the case. Jessica isn't exactly the most honest person when it comes to this stuff, and she had every incentive and means in the world to secretly have a high-rank Avowed genetic father.

Einander
Sep 14, 2008

"Yeh've forged a magnificent sword."

"This one's only practice. The real sword I intend to forge will be three times longer."

"Can there really be a sword as monstrous as that in this world?"

"Yes. I can see that sword... Somewhere out there..."

Ytlaya posted:

SupSup 115 - Aww, very sweet that Lute now has a good friend for literally the first time in his life. Looking forward to Alden/Lute/Haoyu going to these Velra social events.

I'm guessing that this will be the main subplot for a while, maybe until Alden's next affixation.


The bolded is what I initially thought (I think I may have even said as much in the past in this thread, though that may have been a Patreon comment or something instead), but it just seems deeply implausible that a family like the Velras would blindly make an assumption like that, when they care so much about family members becoming Avowed. And the segment I referenced just very conspicuously felt like it was intended to directly address people suspecting that grandchildren of Avowed could still have a higher chance of becoming Avowed. IIRC it says that even though there aren't a huge number, there have still been enough grandchildren of Avowed that there's no reason to think it's much more likely than it is for any other non-Avowed person. At the very least, we can confidently say that the chance is still very low. Even if the number of "grandchildren of Avowed but children of non-Avowed" is too small to confidently assert anything, it's still probably high enough to know "it's still a low chance."

Also, and much more persuasively IMO, there's the thing (I think) I mentioned about Jessica clearly anticipating Lute possibly becoming Avowed. If there's just an Anesidoran cultural norm to wrongly believe that grandchildren of Avowed aren't any more likely to become Avowed than "normal" people globally, that would also apply to Jessica. But Jessica's behavior is consistent with her thinking there's a decent chance of Lute becoming Avowed (which makes sense if one genetic parent was Avowed and the other - her - wasn't).

There's no verification (and probably never will be), but I'd be willing to bet this is the case. Jessica isn't exactly the most honest person when it comes to this stuff, and she had every incentive and means in the world to secretly have a high-rank Avowed genetic father.


(SupSup 115, talking about 114 events) See, part of why I'm leaning toward Cyril really being Lute's dad is that Aulia's specific blind spot, pointed out repeatedly, is magical thinking. She believes that events have meaning and significance, even outside of people acting to make them meaningful. If you believe that the events of your life are a message from the universe, then you're not going to think a coin landing on heads ten times in a row is just a fluke of probability. She's going to lean toward more meaningful possibilities rather than boring and mundane ones. On topics like this, she's not a credible source.

blastron
Dec 11, 2007

Don't doodle on it!


SS 114: There’s a lot of mundane ways to be a lovely parent. Perhaps Jessica sent Alden to hero school because she had decided his future was to be a personal assistant like she was, and wanted an education that had everything he’d need to do that. Maybe she was being irrational about Lute’s chances of being selected and was forcing him along the path of becoming Avowed just in case he won the lottery and actually did it.

I honestly think that Jessica ignoring reality, whether that was that Lute wouldn’t be selected or that he wanted to go to Austria and join a symphony, and being a lovely parent as a result is a better story than a conspiracy to lie about his parentage.

Bremen
Jul 20, 2006

Our God..... is an awesome God

Ytlaya posted:

SupSup 115 - Aww, very sweet that Lute now has a good friend for literally the first time in his life. Looking forward to Alden/Lute/Haoyu going to these Velra social events.

I'm guessing that this will be the main subplot for a while, maybe until Alden's next affixation.


The bolded is what I initially thought (I think I may have even said as much in the past in this thread, though that may have been a Patreon comment or something instead), but it just seems deeply implausible that a family like the Velras would blindly make an assumption like that, when they care so much about family members becoming Avowed. And the segment I referenced just very conspicuously felt like it was intended to directly address people suspecting that grandchildren of Avowed could still have a higher chance of becoming Avowed. IIRC it says that even though there aren't a huge number, there have still been enough grandchildren of Avowed that there's no reason to think it's much more likely than it is for any other non-Avowed person. At the very least, we can confidently say that the chance is still very low. Even if the number of "grandchildren of Avowed but children of non-Avowed" is too small to confidently assert anything, it's still probably high enough to know "it's still a low chance."

Also, and much more persuasively IMO, there's the thing (I think) I mentioned about Jessica clearly anticipating Lute possibly becoming Avowed. If there's just an Anesidoran cultural norm to wrongly believe that grandchildren of Avowed aren't any more likely to become Avowed than "normal" people globally, that would also apply to Jessica. But Jessica's behavior is consistent with her thinking there's a decent chance of Lute becoming Avowed (which makes sense if one genetic parent was Avowed and the other - her - wasn't).

There's no verification (and probably never will be), but I'd be willing to bet this is the case. Jessica isn't exactly the most honest person when it comes to this stuff, and she had every incentive and means in the world to secretly have a high-rank Avowed genetic father.


I think the story might mislead on this topic because of how the evidence is presented. (SupSup 114) Our primary source that the children of two whiffs are extremely unlikely to be selected is Jessica - who much later admits that she did hope Lute would be avowed but wanted him to think he wouldn't be so he wouldn't have his dreams crushed like she did, so we can't take her claims at face value. Our second main source is Hazel, who was clearly saying whatever she thought would hurt Lute (hence also thinking his mom wouldn't get rejuv) and the bullies in his school, who similarly wanted to say hurtful things. But we spend so many chapters with those being the dominant sources in Lute's narrative that it's easy for the reader to assume that must be a universal belief.

I think the honestly most likely situation is that people weren't sure if the child of two whiffs would get selected. Remember, at the time of this story Anesidora is only about 40 years old (and it was only 30 when Jessica originally told Lute he'd never be avowed), and before that the odds of two avowed marrying, having a kid who didn't get selected (according to Sleyca whiffs are a virtually never happen thing), and then having that kid meet another whiff, get married, and have a kid was probably vanishingly rare. Possibly there were a handful of others a few years older than Lute that didn't get selected so people started suspecting they had the normal human odds, but there's no way there was enough to take a statistical guess at the likelihood. But that isn't what Lute thinks because his mom told him otherwise, and Anesidoran culture assumes your likelihood of getting a certain rank firmly on your parents, so Lute being the child of two whiffs got categorized the same as someone else with two non-avowed parents would, and he never really questions it. Anyone implying that maybe he will get selected, like Vandy, gets dismissed.

Ytlaya
Nov 13, 2005

Einander posted:

(SupSup 115, talking about 114 events) See, part of why I'm leaning toward Cyril really being Lute's dad is that Aulia's specific blind spot, pointed out repeatedly, is magical thinking. She believes that events have meaning and significance, even outside of people acting to make them meaningful. If you believe that the events of your life are a message from the universe, then you're not going to think a coin landing on heads ten times in a row is just a fluke of probability. She's going to lean toward more meaningful possibilities rather than boring and mundane ones. On topics like this, she's not a credible source.

She's not the only source, though! Lute certainly doesn't think it's the case just because of Aulia, and even desperately tried to come up with another reasonable explanation. While grandchildren of Avowed might still have a higher chance, we know it's still probably low (since they do have a number of existing examples according to Lute - which isn't surprising since "whiffs" on Anesidora are likely to marry other "whiffs" for a variety of reasons).

And I think all of that is secondary to Jessica's own behavior and reaction. She frames it as "preparing Lute for the worst, so he wouldn't have to go through what she did," which implies she knew there was a decent chance of him being Avowed. If Cyril was the genetic father, she'd have no reason to think this, even if it was the case that the child of two "whiffs" has a higher chance of being selected. She would have reacted with immense surprise in that case, instead of relief.


Bremen posted:

I think the honestly most likely situation is that people weren't sure if the child of two whiffs would get selected. Remember, at the time of this story Anesidora is only about 40 years old (and it was only 30 when Jessica originally told Lute he'd never be avowed), and before that the odds of two avowed marrying, having a kid who didn't get selected (according to Sleyca whiffs are a virtually never happen thing), and then having that kid meet another whiff, get married, and have a kid was probably vanishingly rar.[/spoiler]

Lute, who absolutely looked this stuff up (and despite having a direct incentive to cling to evidence to the contrary) says it like this -

quote:

There wasn’t a lot of data on children with two sets of superhuman grandparents and a pair of plain human parents, but it wasn’t like he was the one and only. There were others. And there were those who had gotten the heck off of Anesidora, like Lute had planned to, and married regular people.

All evidence pointed to whiffs being garden variety human beings that the System had no interest in playing with.

And IMO this is written in "author voice," and at least reflects a societal consensus on this stuff, so even if it's not true, I think we can reliably know it's what other people (including Jessica) believe.

Also, as I mentioned above, two "whiffs" marrying each other isn't that strange. If anything, they'd be far more likely to gravitate towards one another, due to the social pressures we've seen Lute experience. I wouldn't be surprised if there are at least like 50 children like that. IIRC the rate of "whiffs" is something in the single-digit percentage (maybe as low as 0.5%, but maybe that's the "rate of Avowed among globies," can't remember), and that still works out to a significant number of people.

Ytlaya fucked around with this message at 01:42 on Dec 18, 2023

Bremen
Jul 20, 2006

Our God..... is an awesome God
You look to have cut the spoiler tag out of my quote in your post, btw.

Ytlaya posted:

She's not the only source, though! Lute certainly doesn't think it's the case just because of Aulia, and even desperately tried to come up with another reasonable explanation. While grandchildren of Avowed might still have a higher chance, we know it's still probably low (since they do have a number of existing examples according to Lute - which isn't surprising since "whiffs" on Anesidora are likely to marry other "whiffs" for a variety of reasons).

And I think all of that is secondary to Jessica's own behavior and reaction. She frames it as "preparing Lute for the worst, so he wouldn't have to go through what she did," which implies she knew there was a decent chance of him being Avowed. If Cyril was the genetic father, she'd have no reason to think this, even if it was the case that the child of two "whiffs" has a higher chance of being selected. She would have reacted with immense surprise in that case, instead of relief.


Lute, who absolutely looked this stuff up (and despite having a direct incentive to cling to evidence to the contrary) says it like this -

And IMO this is written in "author voice," and at least reflects a societal consensus on this stuff, so even if it's not true, I think we can reliably know it's what other people (including Jessica) believe.

Also, as I mentioned above, two "whiffs" marrying each other isn't that strange. If anything, they'd be far more likely to gravitate towards one another, due to the social pressures we've seen Lute experience. I wouldn't be surprised if there are at least like 50 children like that. IIRC the rate of "whiffs" is something in the single-digit percentage (maybe as low as 0.5%, but maybe that's the "rate of Avowed among globies," can't remember), and that still works out to a significant number of people.


(Supsup 114) To say something has a one in a million chance of happening, you need a million test cases. That's how statistics work. I'm not saying there were no kids of whiffs, just not nearly enough for anyone to confidently say they had base human odds of being selected.

There are 7.2 million avowed in the world. The only numbers that would count here would be whiffs that grew up, got married and had kids (I'm going to say minimum age 20), then had those kids grow up old enough to be shown not to be selected (let's say minimum 20 again), so minimum 40 years ago, which was around when Anesidora was built.

So assuming there were half as many avowed 40 years ago (there were probably less, given the world population has been expanding), and assuming all avowed couples were both avowed (super generous, pre-anesidora), and have a birth rate similar to the modern US (1.2%), that works out to about 43,200 births a year. If 1% are whiffs (seems generous considering what Sleyca has said), that means 432 a year. Let's say half the whiffs that get married marry another whiff (again, being super generous here). Statistically that probably points at a single digit number of kids like Lute born a year, and with only a few years where it's practical to happen and be older than Lute, and maybe a very few examples born earlier than that from the first avowed hooking up in tight social groups. And that's taking what I would expect to be the most generous numbers at every turn.

If there were five second generation whiffs before Lute, and none of them got selected, and then along came Lute who got selected, then the obvious solution is that the chances of a child of whiffs getting selected is 1 in 6, not a quadruple decimal percent and that Lute's mom was cheating. And those other five probably hadn't even reached selection age when Jessica told Lute he would never get selected while also secretly hoping that he would.

Also if Lute was just looking for second generation whiffs that left Anesidora than he was committing the sin of selection bias, not unusual for a kid.

Bremen fucked around with this message at 04:04 on Dec 18, 2023

Foxfire_
Nov 8, 2010

Supsup Author error from being bad at big number worldbuilding seems like the most likely explanation to me. It isn't plausible that there have been enough grandkids for the chances to be known, but enough characters that ought to know better haven't brought that up

Ytlaya posted:

Also, as I mentioned above, two "whiffs" marrying each other isn't that strange. If anything, they'd be far more likely to gravitate towards one another, due to the social pressures we've seen Lute experience. I wouldn't be surprised if there are at least like 50 children like that. IIRC the rate of "whiffs" is something in the single-digit percentage (maybe as low as 0.5%, but maybe that's the "rate of Avowed among globies," can't remember), and that still works out to a significant number of people.
I don't think Anesidora is old enough for social pressure to matter. The Artonans showed up in 1960s, and being required to live on the island is younger than that. Most people in the middle of a Super => Whiff => ? generational pattern are going to be predating the island during their young adulthood, so they'd be unlikely to even have other Whiffs around to pair up with.


Foxfire_ fucked around with this message at 04:03 on Dec 18, 2023

Sacro
Jul 21, 2008

I was somewhere around the middle of page 86 in the Cognitive Dissonance thread when the drugs began to take hold.

only only only only only only
SS 115 It comes down to how the author wanted to have magic heritability work. If selection of avowed is derived from only genetics, then the author made a misstep because the people in setting would have been all over that as experiment #1 of eugenics and they're acting unbelievably dumb. So if it's that it isn't very interesting. If it isn't that, then there is some magical thing that is much more important to the process. Humans in setting would have ran into it enough for it to be common knowledge that there is something going on that means ONLY direct offspring have increased chances. That is believable even with the extremely short timespan, since literally the first thing people would try - genetic theory - would fail and they wouldn't know why, just that it did.

Another thing is I think adults were chosen as avowed in the early 60s? That means the first of those peoples kids that they had after selection would have started a third generation as early as the late 70s/80s. By present day there are likely a number of 5th generation kids and some 6th. Plenty of data to determine that the heritability of avowed selection does not line up with genetic traits. Also likely an enormous amount of time relentlessly looking through human genomes looking for correlations, unless that's a technology that the Artonans somehow got humans to not develop.

Sacro fucked around with this message at 17:20 on Dec 18, 2023

Wittgen
Oct 13, 2012

We have decided to decline your offer of a butt kicking.
SS115 I have been thinking about the interesting parallels between Lute and Alden's stories.

An obvious thing is how they were both abused. The neglect Alden suffered wasn't nearly as hurtful or malevolent as what Lute experienced, but that kind of makes for an even better contrast. Alden's Aunt was neglectful; Lute's mom actively disregards the fact that Lute is his own person. When the Aunt learns that Alden didn't trust her enough to go to her right after being selected, she thinks on how poorly that reflects on her and apologizes. When Lute's mom learns the same thing, she doesn't even blink.

Why would she? For her it's mission accomplished. Her web of lies have crafted her son's life into a shape that is emotionally comfortable for her. Never mind how Lute feels about it.

sloppy portmanteau
Feb 4, 2019
I'm new to the world og web serials, but I've really enjoyed a couple now, and am looking for recommendations. Something with a good primary protagonist (rather than some ensemble), and not any kind of transported into their favorite game/novel thing. Also something that has a pretty decent amount of content out, so I can binge it for at least a while. What I've read and loved so far:

Super Supportive
Practical Guide to Sorcery
Worm (no interest in their other work though, getting to the end was exhausting)
Mother of Learning
12 Miles Below

And here are a couple I've started reading but dropped:
Beware of Chicken - Just.. too much slice of life I think? Couldnt get into it.
Perfect Run - Hated the MC
Worth the Candle - Just didn't grab me
Wandering Inn - Not for me

Haystack
Jan 23, 2005





Ar'Kendrithyst - Portal fantasy with a fairly unique setting. Has a neat magic system that goes very big. Lots of content.
Ave Xia Rem Y - Cultivation lit played strait, but well-written with most of the usual objectionable bits torn out.
Spire Dweller - A non-standard cultivation fic with a bit of litRPG mixed in. A very good "powers go up" series. I thought it would be cliche, but was surprised how fresh it felt.

Nitrousoxide
May 30, 2011

do not buy a oneplus phone



sloppy portmanteau posted:

I'm new to the world og web serials, but I've really enjoyed a couple now, and am looking for recommendations. Something with a good primary protagonist (rather than some ensemble), and not any kind of transported into their favorite game/novel thing. Also something that has a pretty decent amount of content out, so I can binge it for at least a while. What I've read and loved so far:

Super Supportive
Practical Guide to Sorcery
Worm (no interest in their other work though, getting to the end was exhausting)
Mother of Learning
12 Miles Below

And here are a couple I've started reading but dropped:
Beware of Chicken - Just.. too much slice of life I think? Couldnt get into it.
Perfect Run - Hated the MC
Worth the Candle - Just didn't grab me
Wandering Inn - Not for me

Forge of Destiny
Chrysalis
Nowhere Stars
The Last Orellen (On Hiatus)

Practical Guide to Evil (Series Finished)
(also from the same author, though I've not read it yet)
Pale Lights

shirunei
Sep 7, 2018

I tried to run away. To take the easy way out. I'll live through the suffering. When I die, I want to feel like I did my best.

sloppy portmanteau posted:

I'm new to the world og web serials, but I've really enjoyed a couple now, and am looking for recommendations. Something with a good primary protagonist (rather than some ensemble), and not any kind of transported into their favorite game/novel thing. Also something that has a pretty decent amount of content out, so I can binge it for at least a while. What I've read and loved so far:

Super Supportive
Practical Guide to Sorcery
Worm (no interest in their other work though, getting to the end was exhausting)
Mother of Learning
12 Miles Below

And here are a couple I've started reading but dropped:
Beware of Chicken - Just.. too much slice of life I think? Couldnt get into it.
Perfect Run - Hated the MC
Worth the Candle - Just didn't grab me
Wandering Inn - Not for me

This is the Super Supportive thread you might want to try in the other one.

sloppy portmanteau
Feb 4, 2019
Great thank you. I've got a long flight coming up, and these will help.

Bremen
Jul 20, 2006

Our God..... is an awesome God

Haystack posted:

Ar'Kendrithyst - Portal fantasy with a fairly unique setting. Has a neat magic system that goes very big. Lots of content.
Ave Xia Rem Y - Cultivation lit played strait, but well-written with most of the usual objectionable bits torn out.
Spire Dweller - A non-standard cultivation fic with a bit of litRPG mixed in. A very good "powers go up" series. I thought it would be cliche, but was surprised how fresh it felt.

I tried reading Spire Dweller once and the first few chapters seemed like the most unimaginative power fantasy LitRPG ever. Does it get better?

Haystack
Jan 23, 2005





Bremen posted:

I tried reading Spire Dweller once and the first few chapters seemed like the most unimaginative power fantasy LitRPG ever. Does it get better?

It generally hits its stride once the main character gets back to civilization and starts getting herself into trouble. Overall, it's a good unchallenging progression fantasy, through and through.

I personally like it a lot! But I'd be the first to admit that my tastes in this sort of thing are kind of basic.

Haystack fucked around with this message at 03:21 on Dec 19, 2023

Nitrousoxide
May 30, 2011

do not buy a oneplus phone



Oh I just realized that the Royal Road chapter for Super Supportive was the Great Kibby Caper.

Best chapter in the post-Thegund era.

LLSix
Jan 20, 2010

The real power behind countless overlords

sloppy portmanteau posted:

I'm new to the world og web serials, but I've really enjoyed a couple now, and am looking for recommendations. Something with a good primary protagonist (rather than some ensemble), and not any kind of transported into their favorite game/novel thing. Also something that has a pretty decent amount of content out, so I can binge it for at least a while. What I've read and loved so far:

Super Supportive
Practical Guide to Sorcery
Worm (no interest in their other work though, getting to the end was exhausting)
Mother of Learning
12 Miles Below

And here are a couple I've started reading but dropped:
Beware of Chicken - Just.. too much slice of life I think? Couldnt get into it.
Perfect Run - Hated the MC
Worth the Candle - Just didn't grab me
Wandering Inn - Not for me

Based on what you liked...
Forge of Destiny - magic school that transitions into magic adventures in the sequel
Super Minion - clearly inspired by Worm but still very much its own thing. Sadly unfinished and on hiatus

blastron
Dec 11, 2007

Don't doodle on it!


sloppy portmanteau posted:

I'm new to the world og web serials, but I've really enjoyed a couple now, and am looking for recommendations.

I'm enjoying Player Manager, a story about a guy who unintentionally makes a deal with a devil to be the best soccer football team manager in the world. It's technically a LitRPG, in that there are blue boxes with numbers in them, but the actual progression is all real-world stuff about making contacts, scouting players, and coaching teams towards victory.

I will give the caveat that Max, the protagonist, is strong-willed and abrasive, so this might not be your thing depending on what you didn't like about The Perfect Run's MC, but unlike in The Perfect Run, Max does not get to constantly reset the timeline and actually gets punished for his hubris.

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Aware
Nov 18, 2003
So I started SS and it was a bit slow to start and then Alden's first summoning and the moon and Kibby kicked total rear end and now I feel like he's been back on Earth and it's been 40 chapters of absolute batshit boring slice of life with dull drama and setting up characters that arent very interesting apart from Lute. does it get good again? And if so, when so I can skip to that chapter.

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