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Baddog posted:I'm not even sure if Bob thinks that is too many or too little. I'm from the school of carefully selecting and responding to job offers, but everyone under 40 seems to spray and pray. A recent masters grad was telling me he was doing more like 100 a *day*, heh. be careful on warm leads, dont be careful on cold leads. its sales, its just sales
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Feb 2, 2024 21:52
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Leperflesh posted:Yeah the impression I get, which I have not validated with data, is that a lot of tech companies did layoffs last year in anticipation of the coming recession. Which hasn't happened, and now looks more and more like it won't. Those companies will find themselves understaffed as demand continues to rise for their products - or, in some cases, falls because their products are already suffering from the lack of development and support. I got the impression more of the layoffs in tech were this year, but maybe that is recency bias? Also, I think a lot of tech was temporarily operating under the impression that no one would ever leave their home again, and hired accordingly. The huge layoff at UPS this month I think reflects a similar trend - I think it would be easy to interpret layoffs at shipping companies as a cooling in general economic demand, but I think in the case of UPS, its more of a post-covid normalization. Anecdotally, I think B2B shipments are probably as high as ever, but it would not surprise me at all if B2C shipments have fallen quite a bit.
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Feb 2, 2024 22:11
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bob dobbs is dead posted:be careful on warm leads, dont be careful on cold leads. its sales, its just sales Yup, and the corollary is to not spend too much time on the shots in the dark. Plenty of times I'll see some random poo poo on linkedin that I'm probably qualified for but it's not a slam dunk, so I'll spend maximum twenty minutes lightly editing my resume and fire it out. Low response rate, but low effort.
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Feb 2, 2024 22:48
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drk posted:I got the impression more of the layoffs in tech were this year, but maybe that is recency bias? It's only been one month of this year, it'd be pretty crazy if there were more tech layoffs in january than in all of 2023. e. UPS layoffs in January are extremely normal because the company ramps up massively for December and there's a lingering post-christmas cleanup that lasts a week or two.
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Feb 3, 2024 00:49
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Lockback posted:Such a weird mix of economy adding jobs and layoff announcements dominating the employment news. Average weekly hours fell in January to 34.1 … quite a decline from prior month and recent peak; monthly decline on pace with what is typically seen in recessions (which just adds to more confusion re: broader jobs data)  Google also announced earlier this year that more layoffs are coming in 2024: https://www.theverge.com/2024/1/17/24042417/google-layoffs-2024-internal-employee-memo-sundar-pichai err fucked around with this message at 01:31 on Feb 3, 2024 |
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Feb 3, 2024 01:28
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Leperflesh posted:It's only been one month of this year, it'd be pretty crazy if there were more tech layoffs in january than in all of 2023. Yes, you were right there were more tech layoffs last year than this year so far. But, this year is at a higher pace so far. Re: UPS - most of the people being laid off are in management. I dont think seasonal workers tend to get laid off, they are on temporary contracts to begin with.
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Feb 3, 2024 04:06
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drk posted:Yes, you were right there were more tech layoffs last year than this year so far. But, this year is at a higher pace so far. Yeah, seasonal work at UPS is a specific temp contract with a defined endpoint. Sometimes some hubs will do a round of hiring after the season and can kinda dangle that carrot in front of some of the seasonal folks (“hey, we'll be taking applications in January and if you’re working really hard that will leave a good impression!”), but the seasonal folks leaving isn’t considered layoffs.
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Feb 3, 2024 04:28
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SpartanIvy posted:My company is offering a $5K referral bonus for a senior level IT position. Seems like they're having a hard time finding applicants even. Counter point: recruiters are actually actively incentivized to not hire. The bigger the work load, the less incentive the company has to lay off recruiters. Two companies ago our recruiter was complaining about how hard it was to vet for a position. I offered to do it for him and he clammed up real quick. If it's taking a long time to hire it's not the job market it's the people in the business of trying to find jobs trying to keep their job.
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Feb 3, 2024 04:35
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The most common kpi for recruiters is hiring velocity, dragging your feet is going to get you canned quicker than emptying the kitty. It's not uncommon for recruiters to do other hr busywork when the hiring slows (if it's natural, not a squeeze).
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Feb 3, 2024 06:45
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That's false if they're in house and you only have two positions open :dwight-false:
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Feb 3, 2024 07:18
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Hadlock posted:Counter point: recruiters are actually actively incentivized to not hire. The bigger the work load, the less incentive the company has to lay off recruiters. That would explain so much about the modern job market.
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Feb 4, 2024 02:40
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When I was actively applying for jobs I counted every LinkedIn “easy apply” as an application because I didn’t/couldn’t be bothered differentiating them for my own tracking. You know those apps where you just click the job and click apply now and then click on the last resume you uploaded and viola you’ve applied. Takes 1 minute and I saw no harm in hitting easy apply to every job that otherwise matched the keywords I was searching for. Of course I also had a much smaller subset of jobs where I actually like took the effort to apply and stuff. That’s how I was cranking out 10+ “applications” a day.
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Feb 4, 2024 05:05
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typical bdr ('business development representative' - initial basically-spammer for software and software-like sales) email activity quota is 20 personalized emails per day, getting to 10-20 qualified contacts a week, converting to about 1-4 demos a week. literally each of those steps can vary by an order of magnitude
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Feb 4, 2024 05:09
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I thought this was a pretty impressive statistic https://archive.is/2024.02.01-17100...ges-2024-01-31/ quote:MOSCOW, Jan 31 (Reuters) - Russia has reduced gasoline exports to non-CIS countries to compensate for unplanned repairs at refineries, the Ministry of Energy said on Wednesday, as the country grappled with the impact of fires and drone attacks on its energy infrastructure. Seems like a couple of well placed drones by Ukraine could topple the entire russian empire and end the war (unlikely, but maybe) Now, they're giving year over year numbers, so it's a pretty squishy statistic, but I wasn't expecting 15%+
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Feb 4, 2024 09:59
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on the balance who can say if it was worth it, but one benefit of the postwar era was the stability to build out industry without worrying about an rc kit turning it all to slag. I think we've dealt with us hegemony long enough that it's been forgotten that multipolar conflicts tended to have a lot of dead peasants and burnt fields between the various capitals
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Feb 4, 2024 10:13
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I don’t think the Red Sea is going to be widely open to shipping for a very long time. Wonder if shipping has a structural shortage of ships or not? I know many were ordered in 2020-2021 during the covid goods shipping surge.
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Feb 4, 2024 15:27
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pmchem posted:I don’t think the Red Sea is going to be widely open to shipping for a very long time. Most new TEUs of ships ever last year. The initial structural shortage during the pandemic was vessels being laid up, less scrapped. The lines acted as a cartel in response to the pandemic demand dip. Then later the container flow issue was more driven US west coast ports rather and the lack of empties in Asia than vessel capacity. Remember the vessels were waiting at anchor. We have, of course, not addressed the structural issues with US ports, they just aren’t in a huge back log for the time being. It just mostly takes the additional longer transit for eur-asia (a couple weeks) and costs more (fuel + take what you can give nothing back money), but there is not the lack of empty containers on the Asia side (plenty of empties to reallocate from the US) nor the structural terminal delays causing vessel back up once they do arrive (no us style hosed up terminals)
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Feb 4, 2024 18:40
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I have some posts i wrote previously on what structurally happened to cause the us terminal problems during the crisis. I’ll dig those up later today or will just summarize for you this afternoon / evening. Anyway those things aren’t happening in the same way due to the Red Sea detour.
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Feb 4, 2024 18:49
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thanks. if there’s any economic or markets impact besides “more fuel use” and “moderately higher shipping costs for EUR-ASIA” i’d be super curious
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Feb 4, 2024 19:52
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pmchem posted:thanks. if there’s any economic or markets impact besides “more fuel use” and “moderately higher shipping costs for EUR-ASIA” i’d be super curious Inventories should increase due to longer lead times and financing is already expensive. There will be a ton of short term air freight price spikes. Not as much as the pandy tho, hopefully.
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Feb 4, 2024 21:44
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Couldn’t find the one I wanted so here’s the summary. Modern Container Liner Services mostly originate in the United States. If that’s a topic one is interested in look into the history of SeaLand and Malcolm McLean. Any way I’m gonna skip all that. The important thing to know is that it happens in the US first. The first generation of container ports are US ports. So you have infrastructure dated and sited to the beginning of the system. It’s old, slow, not automated, and usually physically boxed in geographically. Ships also changed. The SS Kauai for example was 1626 TEUs in 1980 now Before the pandemic US ports particularly West Coast ports were barely keeping with flow up when large vessels berthed and discharged. East Coast ports particularly in the Gulf and south avoided some of these conditions by inheriting state level ports authorities (and if one wants to look into that read about Georgia Ports Authority. Anyway the pandemic happens initially demand drops, vessels get laid up by the lines, then demand starts returning, but covid really hits the water front labor. Then the terminals which had only barely been keeping up before the pandemic couldn’t dig out of a growing back log. The gates become the bottleneck. Ships start piling up. Empties stop getting back on ships. Empties start filling up local storage. Limited terminal storage becomes a problem for discharging backed up vessels. Terminals refuse empties. Empty flow back to Asia slows and almost stops. Then it takes months to get a empty container in China. Everyone panics and orders as much inventory as they can get. Things almost broke at that point. But by then everybody has had covid the omicron wave was passed. Terminals manage to staff the gates. Demand falls as businesses managed to finally stock up. Things whiplash back and forth a bit but eventually it calms down to the state we were in before Ukraine / Panama / Red Sea happens. Anyway what’s different with the Red Sea, European terminals don’t suck. They’re often automated. They have national/state level Port authorities not city level like the US west coast. There won’t be the covid terminal back ups, there won’t be the problem of empties failing to get back to Asia. It’s merely going to take longer in transit and cost more. It’s not an existential threat to the whole system. Bar Ran Dun fucked around with this message at 04:10 on Feb 5, 2024 |
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Feb 5, 2024 01:40
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sticky sticky NO TWEETS hobbez fucked around with this message at 16:24 on Feb 13, 2024 |
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Feb 13, 2024 16:14
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no tweets, and pics of full tweets are equivalent to tweets. you got until i bother to pull up a browser to edit that into a link or quote some other source
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Feb 13, 2024 16:19
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pmchem posted:no tweets, and pics of full tweets are equivalent to tweets. My bad. I don’t really get that rule but my bad. Wall Street Journal posted:The Labor Department reported Tuesday that consumer prices rose 3.1% in January from a year earlier, versus a December gain of 3.4%. That marked the lowest reading since June.
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Feb 13, 2024 16:26
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I'm probably an idiot who doesn't understand large numbers but this market reaction seems excessive for a CPI that's like 25 bps higher than what a bunch of Harvard professors guessed it would be.
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Feb 13, 2024 16:29
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thanks for tweet removal. early reactions largely have the culprit as shelter coming in hotter than expected. that’s known to lag so gotta imagine it should moderate in coming months, but yeeesh, bond and stock markets getting killed today. federal reserve controls the fate of all in 2024.
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Feb 13, 2024 16:29
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I think the driving force in markets today is dollar strength - that drives equity and bond prices, precious metals, and forex, all of which are reacting in tandem. I don't think there's necessarily a bearish equity sentiment, but it does break the momentum of the last several sessions.
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Feb 13, 2024 16:33
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mrmcd posted:I'm probably an idiot who doesn't understand large numbers but this market reaction seems excessive for a CPI that's like 25 bps higher than what a bunch of Harvard professors guessed it would be. Annualized, a .2% monthly miss on CPI is equivalent to an additional 2.4% increase in prices. It’s not a small miss. Right now markets are shifting back from May to June for a first rate hike. I fear even that may be optimistic.
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Feb 13, 2024 16:33
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hobbez posted:Annualized, a .2% monthly miss on CPI is equivalent to an additional 2.4% increase in prices. It’s not a small miss. Do you mean a rate drop, or are people expecting more hikes?
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Feb 13, 2024 16:38
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Bremen posted:Do you mean a rate drop, or are people expecting more hikes? No that is the market estimated timing of the first rate cut. If the fed has to go back into rate hiking mode, lookout!
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Feb 13, 2024 16:44
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mrmcd posted:I'm probably an idiot who doesn't understand large numbers but this market reaction seems excessive for a CPI that's like 25 bps higher than what a bunch of Harvard professors guessed it would be. the market's base case has been rate cuts as early as march and definitely by may; this throws more cold water on that and creates additional uncertainty. IMO the markets have consistently underrated the hawkishness of the Fed, which is not going to start cutting until it's certain that inflation is on the path back to 2%. I've seen a couple articles asking why the fed is delaying given that the economy is so good - https://www.project-syndicate.org/c...-delong-2024-02 for example - which is not the way the Fed is thinking about it. Low unemployment and strong growth means they can play it safe by keeping rates higher for longer - they're much more worried about a premature cut leading to inflation returning than they are about the market reaction.
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Feb 13, 2024 16:45
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The "Markets" have been convincing themselves for the past 2ish months than interest rates will drop to 4% or lower by the end of the year and everything will return to "normal". Quite a few people pointed out this was unrealistically optimistic, and now reality is catching up with the Markets.
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Feb 13, 2024 16:47
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mrmcd posted:I'm probably an idiot who doesn't understand large numbers but this market reaction seems excessive for a CPI that's like 25 bps higher than what a bunch of Harvard professors guessed it would be. The market isn't a single rational being. It's a big move but that might be because there's a ton of people making small moves. The miss isn't awful if its just this month but there's reasons to think it won't be just this month. Rates are not coming down anytime soon though. Thats what I had suspected but now I'm pretty certain of it.
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Feb 13, 2024 16:53
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Lockback posted:The market isn't a single rational being. It's a big move but that might be because there's a ton of people making small moves. The miss isn't awful if its just this month but there's reasons to think it won't be just this month. This is how I feel. It’s gonna be a long, slow process. The economy is too hot, unless something breaks out of nowhere. Also a 1% decline is a big move? Pssshhh
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Feb 13, 2024 17:09
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Nothingtoseehere posted:The "Markets" have been convincing themselves for the past 2ish months than interest rates will drop to 4% or lower by the end of the year and everything will return to "normal". Quite a few people pointed out this was unrealistically optimistic, and now reality is catching up with the Markets. Can you cite a single link to support this Most everything I've been reading has been taking about 5% being the landing point, in 2025-6
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Feb 13, 2024 18:58
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Hadlock posted:Can you cite a single link to support this What you're looking for is the fed funds futures curve. An example is here.
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Feb 13, 2024 19:12
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Hadlock posted:Can you cite a single link to support this are you sure that's not mortgage interest rates? e. today the federal funds overnight rate is at 5.33%, that's the rate we're talking about. Leperflesh fucked around with this message at 19:29 on Feb 13, 2024 |
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Feb 13, 2024 19:20
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Hadlock posted:Can you cite a single link to support this Here's one Morningstar predicting 6 rate cuts in 2024 There's others if you look, mostly from articles timed around the appearance of this exuberance in December.
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Feb 13, 2024 19:22
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IMO you can get a good sense of market expectations via the fitted forward rate on treasuries. As of 2/2/24 the market was pricing in 4.16% at 2/2/25, 3.62% at 2/2/26, 3.50% at 2/2/27. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/THREEFF1 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/THREEFF2 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/THREEFF3
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Feb 13, 2024 19:58
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Leperflesh posted:are you sure that's not mortgage interest rates? Whoops yeah
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Feb 13, 2024 20:03
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