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Say that you go and start a new job, and three weeks in, you accidentally call a customer a swear word and then go and lock yourself in the bathroom and cry and security has to break the door down and escort you to your car. You probably leave that off your resume, and move on to the next job. But say that the same thing happened after months of people watching everything you do on television. That is the position the Republican candidates who have dropped out are in. People used to seriously talk about Bobby Jindal as the new face of the Republican Party. But after an election where he didn't even make it to the first caucus, he can't really be seen as an up-and-coming politician. After an embarrassing campaign where many of these people couldn't crack 10% in the primaries, who will have any type of career? My guesses: Totally out: Rick Santorum (who was already past his shelf life) Mike Huckabee (likewise) Rand Paul (the total collapse of any type of libertarian, idea driven politics this cycle is a pretty big story) Jeb Bush (and the end of the Bush dynasty, as well) Marco Rubio (who gave up his senate seat to get that all important Puerto Rico/DC/Minnesota axis) Rick Perry (actually sunk last cycle) Carly Fiorina (never really had a career) Ben Carson (likewise) Might be able to salvage their careers: Bobby Jindal (maybe will make a good cabinet secretary in 2027) Ted Cruz (managed to show at least some type of popularity in some areas) Scott Walker (dropped out before things got too crazy) Lindsay Graham (can go back to the senate) Chris Christie (would rather switch than fight) John Kasich (did better than expected, might look good in 2020) What do you think? Did anyone actually come out ahead? Or are people even more ruined than I thought?
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May 20, 2016 18:00
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Kasich probably had the strongest showing of any of these people IMO. He never surpassed someone who dropped out ages before he did, true, but he made his name known to a fair amount of the public, made himself sound reasonable and moderate, and didn't have any major gaffes to speak of. Nobody really hates him which is loving gold as far as the GOP is concerned. If he runs in 2020 he has a strong case to make especially since he can tout the "I DID BETTER IN THE POLLS THAN THE CURRENT INCUMBENT" thing. Ted Cruz had to respond to questions that he's the Zodiac Killer and got utterly humiliated by a bunch of rednecks he was trying to reason with on live TV. He's a joke and he already burned all his bridges, all he has left is how he has something of name recognition and a small but very very vocal margin of supporters which include a swathe of conservative pundits. He'll try in 2020 because he's so thirsty for power. He'll lose horribly. He'll still have to talk about how he's not the Zodiac Killer because old memes never die and the internet, which will be an even bigger driving force, is just going to tear him to pieces. Chris Christie is a slippery one. I can't see him seriously making a bid as President because he's too much of a yes man. He has a strong shot as VP though. Scott Walker probably couldn't win his home state. He got out before it got messy, sure. He's also a colossal doofus who only got out that early because he blew all his cash and the donors decided to ice his rear end. Graham comes from the same state as Strom Thurmond and likely intends to fill that same undying legislative lich position. He'll vanish when he dies and even then I fully expect his skeleton to hold his senate seat for the rest of the term, it might even get re-elected knowing this loving state I wouldn't be that quick to count out Rubio just yet. He was made into a bit of a joke yes but he...did okayish. Kinda. It's really genuinely up to him. I'm not even that sure he even WANTS to continue his career, he sounds so utterly dejected - but if he genuinely like, tried? He could make a rebound. Bush...I don't want to so quickly count him out either. For him it all depends if the donors really want to bite. He has the same sycophant problem as Christie but has a better public image. He'd have to work harder for it, but...I dunno. I wouldn't be that surprised if we hear from him again. Everyone else always was a nobody and is going to remain a nobody. Trump only killed their careers in the sense that in this world those kinds of empty suits can even have careers that they don't at all deserve. He might have even done away with Justin Amash and Tom Cotton's promises, because the GOP is not going to learn their lesson and prevent this from happening again and it's just so easy to turn them into the party of raving lunatics. Gyra_Solune has issued a correction as of 18:35 on May 20, 2016 |
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May 20, 2016 18:33
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Probably any who aren't neocons.
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May 20, 2016 18:34
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Gyra_Solune posted:Kasich probably had the strongest showing of any of these people IMO. He never surpassed someone who dropped out ages before he did, true, but he made his name known to a fair amount of the public, made himself sound reasonable and moderate, and didn't have any major gaffes to speak of. Nobody really hates him which is loving gold as far as the GOP is concerned. If he runs in 2020 he has a strong case to make especially since he can tout the "I DID BETTER IN THE POLLS THAN THE CURRENT INCUMBENT" thing. I actually agree, Kasich might have come out slightly ahead in that he has wider name recognition and didn't make any enemies. I don't think Christie and Walker have presidential level standing now, but they might be able to continue some type of political careers. I think that Rand Paul was far from a nobody. There was a growing base of supporters his father had, and I thought there was a good chance that there would be a quarter of the Republican electorate that was semi-libertarian. Could have been a plurality in a few states. But I think that what we've learned is that those people aren't ideologically in favor of "smaller government" as much as they get lots of e-Mail forwards from their cousin about how they saw a Mexican family buying beer with an EBT card. The fact that the entire libertarian wing of the Republican Party has been replaced with a populist wing is some pretty big news.
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May 20, 2016 18:41
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Immortan posted:Probably any who aren't neocons. If you mean neocon as advocates of an aggressive foreign policy, the only three names on that list that are even on the fringes of that club are Bush, Graham and maybe Jindal. Neocons haven't been part of a the Republican Party since 2006-2008.
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May 20, 2016 18:43
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well, the purges need to start within the party also cruz is the first one gone on the night of the tall walls
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May 20, 2016 18:47
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The Brown Menace posted:well, the purges need to start within the party Cruz managed to unite the party behind him a little bit, even though they really don't like him. It will be interesting to see whether this means he will join the Republican Party club, or whether he will be pushed further out. Even with all the support which he didn't deserve, he still managed to come in a far second.
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May 20, 2016 18:51
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glowing-fish posted:If you mean neocon as advocates of an aggressive foreign policy, the only three names on that list that are even on the fringes of that club are Bush, Graham and maybe Jindal. Neocons haven't been part of a the Republican Party since 2006-2008. lol what
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May 20, 2016 18:54
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Immortan posted:lol what How are you using the term "neocon"?
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May 20, 2016 18:57
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glowing-fish posted:How are you using the term "neocon"? ...by it's definition?: Open borders/free trade capitalism with interventionist/nation building foreign policy. The republican party has been dominated by neocons since the start of the cold war. Saying it's merely a Bush II phenomenon is laughable. Ron Paul was the only one in the last 10 years who opposed (only) the nation building bullshit and Trump is the only one who claims to be against that and free trade/open borders as well.
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May 20, 2016 19:03
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This isn't exclusive to republicans, either. The upcoming democratic nominee is strongly influenced by this ideology as well.
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May 20, 2016 19:10
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Immortan posted:...by it's definition?: Open borders/free trade capitalism with interventionist/nation building foreign policy. The republican party has been dominated by neocons since the start of the cold war. Saying it's merely a Bush II phenomenon is laughable. Ron Paul was the only one in the last 10 years who opposed (only) the nation building bullshit and Trump is the only one who claims to be against that and free trade/open borders as well. So when you say "neocon" you mean "neo liberal", check. Kind of like how in Australia Liberals are conservative and Republicans are liberal. Because of the coriolis effect that makes toilets flush the other way. glowing-fish has issued a correction as of 19:33 on May 20, 2016 |
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May 20, 2016 19:30
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It'll depend on whether Trump wins, Trump loses but not by a lot, or if Trump gets curb stomped. Christie is all-in with Trump. If Trump wins Christie is probably Attorney General, if Trump loses he becomes a  talking head. There's no way he goes back to running Jersey.Cruz really wanted the role that Trump had, the outsider who fans the angry flames and pushes the party to the edges. He got outplayed by Trump, who took Cruz's ideal angle and Cruz couldn't push Trump so far outside that he'd seem better by default. He's got a chance at winning re-election to the Senate because Texas, and if Trump loses by a little bit he can make the case in 2020 that he's the answer. A Trump win/landslide loss is bad for him because his message won't carry as much weight. He'll run in 2020 if Hillary is president regardless, but whether he gets relegated to the Santorum/Huckabee returnee pile is debateable. Kasich should be able to win re-election as Ohio governor easily enough, and he benefits the most from a Trump blowout loss, with the message that the adults in the room need to reclaim control and not the screaming masses. The better Trump does the worst Kasich looks because it shows that people don't want to buy what he's selling. Fiorina/Carson will hit the banquet circuit/write some books/go on TV and babble about poo poo because somehow what they say matters. Jeb retires from politics and lives a quiet life of sitting on various boards to do whatever. His heart never really seemed in it and the Bush name is fairly tarnished for this generation, it'll be a while before one of the clan, maybe whoever comes after Prescott, is able to make a play on the national stage. Rubio might try the Romney route, try to have some success as a private citizen and use that as a launching pad for political success. He's not going back to the Senate and I don't know if he wants to be governor of Florida. I think he's back in 2020 if Trump loses regardless of margin, but a Trump win might be the end for Rubio in politics. Walker dropped out early enough to avoid getting completely annihilated, and if he wins re-election in Wisconsin and Trump gets crushed he'll have a chance in 2020 with the same argument as Kasich. Graham will be in the Senate until he's ready to retire. Rand is done on the national stage and he'll benefit from a Trump loss. A Trump win means populism is winning over libertarianism and he might get primaried in Kentucky. Santorum is done and I don't know what he'll do now. Huckabee is done and will continue to rage against the evil homofagz to an increasingly small audience. Jindal's got a real bad rep due to how badly he mismanaged Louisiana and his window coincided with Obama's. Rick Perry will probably try to take over the Texas school system so he can destroy the Longhorns in the name of General Dog. Paul Ryan will kinda maybe somewhat not really support Trump and pray he gets slaughtered. If Trump wins he probably gets primaried and bounced.
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May 20, 2016 19:43
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Unfortunately I think Marco Rubio will be back on the national stage in the Senate or the House in some time. Jeb might go back to something local in Florida but really I think he's toast.
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May 20, 2016 20:34
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glowing-fish posted:So when you say "neocon" you mean "neo liberal", check.
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May 20, 2016 21:01
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Dead: Rick Santorum (already a has-been when cycle began) Rick Perry (ditto) Mike Huckabee (ditto) Jeb Bush (a flameout this big probably can't be recovered from ever) Carly Fiorina (was never going anywhere anyway) Ben Carson (no need until he runs out of grifted rube money) Bobby Jindal (dead even in his home state) Scott Walker (dead once Wisconsin hits Kansas levels of hosed-uppedness) Rand Paul (might lose his Senate seat) Marco Rubio (dead for 2-6 years) Maybe not dead: Ted Cruz (will probably run again, the thought of seeing him on tv makes me barf a little) Lindsey Graham (the only way he loses this seat is if Trump shoots him on 5th avenue) Chris Christie (Trump's attorney general or VP depending on how well he licks the boot) John Kasich (bland enough to not offend anybody too much compared to the rest of the pack)
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May 20, 2016 21:25
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Hillary Clinton
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May 21, 2016 00:17
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Lord of Pie posted:Scott Walker (dead once Wisconsin hits Kansas levels of hosed-uppedness) I think Walker saved himself by getting out early, but maybe the shame and embarrassment of being associated at all with this primary echoes back through time. We can't rule anything out here.
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May 22, 2016 21:07
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glowing-fish posted:
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May 22, 2016 21:16
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Stunning self awareness
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May 22, 2016 21:25
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it's really cool and funny that the various GOP dipshits don't realize that the fastest way for them to stop trump would have been to endorse him rather than oppose him
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May 22, 2016 21:36
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KORZ8F--crY&t=386s
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May 22, 2016 22:05
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you're the worst poster in this forum please go away forever
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May 22, 2016 23:16
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I don't really see anybody who ran against Trump being able to hold a real position again. Rubio is young enough to maybe make a comeback, but given the GOP is on its last legs anyway that's going to drive a lot of young talent away from the party. Seriously: the Democrats have taken the whole 'fiscal conservative' idea and ran with it, and the Republicans are now pandering to their only base and alienating everybody else. Not hard math to see where this ends up. Walker destroyed his chances when he simply didn't do anything during the primary. By all rights he should have been the one who would take up the baton from Jeb's implosion but his lack of energy and inability to look like a sentient human being sunk him badly. The Kochs yanked his leash and let him pay off his own campaign debt, showing they're about done with him and are looking for another schmuck to pass their legislation. At this point it's just a matter of time before Wisconsin dumps him and after that he'll fall off the radar. He won't see another presidential run ever again. Jeb wasn't the one who destroyed the Bush Dynasty, but he is the one who proved that it is gone. Being destroyed by Trump is one degree of failure, but being destroyed and forced to stand by his brother's disaster of a reign pretty much puts the last nail in the coffin. The Bushes are pretty much done as well and Jeb will probably fall into another low-effort job until he retires and dies. Any ambitions that George P. Bush had are probably going into the toilet as well since he can't be a Republican when he's obviously not lily white. He'll exist as a living example of how the GOP could have expanded to the Hispanic voting populace but never did. Cruz is done simply because one Republican has to take the fall for this year and losing to Trump will be that. He's alienated so many people and is the face of the Republicans during the Obama Administration; sacrificing his career will be the first step the GOP will take to rebrand themselves during the second Clinton Administration. It won't work, but Cruz's main battle will be trying to keep his Senate seat. Nobody will mourn when he can't. Dead man walking. Santorum/Perry/Huckabee are all two to three-time losers. Nobody cares and they're going to rot. Chris Christie has given so much of his dignity to Trump that when Trump loses he'll probably try to kill himself. And even if he doesn't, all anybody has to do to discount him completely is play the footage of him behind Trump for a few seconds. Done and done. Notice how I didn't say anything about him and Obama and that ruining his chances? Because Trump trumped that. Christie would have to do a lot to get back in the high life again, and it simply won't happen. Rand Paul...barely exists. Who cares. And Jindal's sole purpose today is showing what's going to happen to Brownback and Kansas in a few years when they have to rebuild everything. Kasich? He'll probably have a career. Won't be a presidential candidate ever again, but I guess he can raise his head high and still go forward in Ohio doing something. Honestly, I don't see his career fading. That's because he wasn't that much of a contender in the first place, and a desperate pick by people who are slowly bending the knee to Trump. He'll probably be forgotten in two years. Fiorina is and has been a laughingstock. She'll be remembered now for tons of bad decisions, bad singing, and generally being an enormous jackass. To say her career is over would imply it existed in the first place. She'll probably run again but end up at the kiddie table and ignored. Carson is just insane. Nothing I can say will equal what exists in what counts for his brain anymore. Keep in mind that all of these people lost to a documented shyster with the worst toupee in history. A lot of them would have lost anyway, but a few of these people had connections (that's right, Jeb, this is all about you) that should have gotten them must higher than they actually did. In the end, that's what really matters and what really sinks them as candidates and future leaders. Not only did they lose to a seriously-flawed candidate, they were unable to control their own voters and appeal to them. You don't walk back from a loss like that. You move on, and many of these types eventually will.
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May 23, 2016 15:42
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Chris Christie being turned into Trump's bitch boy is one of the better things to come out of this cycle, imo.
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May 24, 2016 00:36
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it continues to amaze me how one moron falling rear end-backwards into political power ended up destroying an enormous party and the futures of many of its biggest names and the GOP is doing the worst thing it could possibly do - it's bending the knee. they could have survived, intact, if they actually put up a fight with this rear end in a top hat but instead it's firmly cemented that even the people who didn't actually run are done for. morons like Priebus are a joke for actually starting to acquiesce to him - when Ryan inevitably does too, it'll be the end of him. but it also made the nevertrumps look completely delusional, just look at how bill kristol descended into madness don't expect to hear from any of these assholes again, let's be honest. they're going to try to reboot but Cotton's already making an rear end of himself even outside the limelight and it only seems like a matter of time before Amash does too and those two are basically the party's last hopes
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May 24, 2016 08:31
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It's going to be loving glorious when Ted Cruz's challenger in 2018 calls him Lyin' Ted during the campaign.
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May 24, 2016 15:02
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Gyra_Solune posted:it continues to amaze me how one moron falling rear end-backwards into political power ended up destroying an enormous party and the futures of many of its biggest names Honestly, if it wasn't Trump that sunk the GOP, it would have been someone else. The GOP needs to figure out what it is going forward, and that's going to take a lot of effort on their part. And it should have been done back in 2008, quite honestly, but wasn't. Instead, they thought they needed another Reagan without really thinking that anybody with enough charisma could come up, take the party, and make it their own. It also doesn't help that the Republicans are so greedy and desperate for power that they handed over their political futures to a schmuck like Trump. He holds none of their views in reality, and is pretty much the perfect gift for Democrats. The Republicans, for all of their tantrums and screaming about culture wars, just gave up completely when they made Trump their new leader. He doesn't give a solid poo poo about Jesus or abortions or anything else made up. Therefore, the Republicans just gave up a major plank of their platform that hasn't been taken and done better by the Democrats. Seriously, who is better for the economy: the wife of a president who made the '90s great and worked with Obama to recover from Dubya, or a political party ran by a Reality TV show host and who jacked up our interest rates because Ted Cruz wanted to feel important? So yeah, their bending the knee is just another in a very long line of bad decisions. It'll be fascinating to see how seriously we can take them when they start screeching about abortion again given that Trump has probably paid for dozens in his entire lifetime. Fuligin posted:Chris Christie being turned into Trump's bitch boy is one of the better things to come out of this cycle, imo. That is fantastic. Always dignity, Christie, always dignity.
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May 24, 2016 17:52
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If the GOP really wanted a crash and burn candidate then Cruz would have been perfect, because if he got the nod and then lost big to Hillary the party leaders could have told the fringe Tea Partiers "You said we lost because we didn't have a conservative enough candidate. We tried your guy and it didn't work. Now either shut up and get on board or go do your own thing that no one will care about." My money is on them still learning nothing from this, except there'll be a wave of local candidates who win office by being loud and angry. At least more than there usually are. Nationally, the party will just amend rules to avoid having an outsider ruin everything and will fall face-first into another crisis.
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May 24, 2016 18:13
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C. Everett Koop posted:If the GOP really wanted a crash and burn candidate then Cruz would have been perfect, because if he got the nod and then lost big to Hillary the party leaders could have told the fringe Tea Partiers "You said we lost because we didn't have a conservative enough candidate. We tried your guy and it didn't work. Now either shut up and get on board or go do your own thing that no one will care about." Tea Party...learn Yeah no Theyve been trying the exact same crap for 8 years.
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May 24, 2016 18:21
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Gyra_Solune posted:it continues to amaze me how one moron falling rear end-backwards into political power ended up destroying an enormous party and the futures of many of its biggest names While I agree that the way forward for the Republican Party post-Trump seems improbable, there was the same thought after 2006 and 2008, that the Republican Party was finished. In some ways, this guess was correct, because when a party starts to lose educated people, its lost. But they bought themselves some shelf life by finding a vein of white, working class rage that they could extend for a few years. So who knows what type of voter bloc they will be able to borrow on for the next few cycles.
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May 31, 2016 01:04
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Post-nomination, who has association with Trump's campaign sunk? (assuming he doesn't win) Mike Pence ("I was sent in to calm him...doing a service to my country" won't really salvage his association as the underling of Trump) Chris Christie (Being the coffee boy of Trump and not even succeeding at that won't look very good) Paul Ryan (Vacillated, didn't look like he had control, might be able to salvage himself, but its a big bad mark) ...and lots of other people.
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Aug 6, 2016 14:42
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Still looking good: Jim Gilmore.
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Aug 6, 2016 14:45
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Kasich looks good on the surface, but the wonks have realized how bad his actual campaign was and that he was dead if Rubio hadn't shat himself on stage. He's the overrated name for 2020 and probably has his governor's seat for a long time to come, but nothing more. Cruz is Dark Lord Sauron and will rise again in four years. If he gets past the sabotage stage he's golden next cycle. Walker's most likely dead. Graham is 'dead' in the sense that he's done running, but he'll have his Senate seat forever. Rubio will get his seat back this year (Murphy's polling terribly even now) but it's not clear to me how he can win a Pres primary again after this garbage fire of a run, then carrying the water for Trump for months and probably having to fade an immigration reform vote next year. Christie is absolutely dead in national politics. A talk show awaits. Pence is going to try to straddle the fence between the Trump and GOPe factions. I don't think he'll make it but stranger things have happened. None of the others matter enough to write about them at this point.
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Aug 6, 2016 14:55
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there can only be so many am conservative radio shows on the air, right? i mean, there has to be a saturation point. anyway, once we reach that point, everyone who didn't already get a studio and a microphone are dead
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Aug 6, 2016 15:20
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They sent John Rowland back to jail so his time slot is open.
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Aug 7, 2016 01:39
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Adar posted:Kasich looks good on the surface, but the wonks have realized how bad his actual campaign was and that he was dead if Rubio hadn't shat himself on stage. He's the overrated name for 2020 and probably has his governor's seat for a long time to come, but nothing more. he's term-limited
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Aug 7, 2016 01:45
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Rubio's gonna Rubio: https://twitter.com/elongreen/status/762073836053467136 I actually think Paul Ryan will come out of 2016 as the most damaged of all the potential 2020 candidates. Cruz will re-emerge if Trump fails, Rubio could paint himself as a winner if he wins back his seat, Nikki Haley will still look neutral/good, Ben Sasse can say he was right all along, Pence can say he did what he could for the party and can merge the Trump/establishment voters, etc. Meanwhile Ryan is becoming more and more despised every day by both the establishment voters for not disavowing Trump AND Trump's own base. And by taking the Speaker role, he's put himself in a similarly impossible position of building up his record for the next 4 years - either 4 years of obstructionism and zero progress under a Hillary admin, or being labeled as a RINO for cooperating. Homework Explainer posted:he's term-limited
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Aug 7, 2016 01:55
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Mr. Pumroy posted:there can only be so many am conservative radio shows on the air, right? i mean, there has to be a saturation point. Especially considering the fact that the people who listen to talk radio are a shrinking demographic. I am wondering how much of this year's Trump disaster will discourage the media from trying to market and pander to these people, as they are showing themselves to be an increasingly unimportant market dynamic. On the other hand: talk radio is really easy to produce, and even if only one in twenty people is part of the target demographic, there is still 15 million people who can be sold gold and home generator kits on the cheap.
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Aug 7, 2016 03:30
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I think even if they go heavy Evangelical next time, it won't be with Cruz. He played all of his good cards, and now his tricks are known. And the stink of failing to defeat Trump (but appearing the closest) is pretty extreme.
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Aug 7, 2016 19:48
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