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Play posted:Something I wanted to look into about this year's class, since I noticed that there were a lot of prospects I would consider older. The AVERAGE age of Brugler's 400 top prospects was 23.24. Generally outside of specific circumstances(Burrow, he just literally because lmao college coaches, he never got a chance to start, and once he did he balled loving out for 2 years and was drafted) being an Older QB means generally you weren't loving good enough to make it to the league until you got old enough to be significantly closer to your prime, and significantly more snaps and game reps than younger players you are going up against. It's why I've been so discriminatory against old QB's who have the break out year in their last year. It's generally a sign that they at the very least are slower to develop, because most elite QB's show they are elite in college and are draftable with 2-3 years of starters reps. Just like in the NFL, It's pretty clear after year 2-3 you will have a pretty solid idea of if you are going to have an elite franchise QB, with only like 2-3 outliers. I'm willing to get burned on outliers by passing on older QB's with 4+ years of reps, who had an explosion of a year that coincided with just overwhelming talent at the college level around them. Dexo fucked around with this message at 20:27 on Apr 29, 2024 |
# ? Apr 29, 2024 20:22 |
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# ? Jun 10, 2024 12:36 |
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Scared me so I went back and checked and Chiefs first three picks were 20, 21 and 21. Not foolin Veach with that Covid Age Trap ignore that tight end being 23
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# ? Apr 29, 2024 20:33 |
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lol at drafting olds https://twitter.com/SportsCenter/status/1784958125780439185
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# ? Apr 29, 2024 20:35 |
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I think ages are messed up right now due to general COVID goofiness and the extra eligibility year plus NIL. COVID eligibility year is a blip, but I think we will almost certainly see more pull from NIL to have more high level prospects stay in school for longer. Just look at tOSU's returning players. Without NIL, a bunch of those guys go to the draft this year rather than next.
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# ? Apr 29, 2024 20:53 |
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Yeah. I think NIL makes this the new normal. These kids are just risking less by staying in college another year.
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# ? Apr 29, 2024 20:55 |
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QBs will probably not stay if they are good prospects. If they are third round or later graded then maybe as if they do have their outlier year they will get drafted in the first and then bust somewhere. We just saw JJ McCarthy drafted in the first round, And Anthony Richardson. I don't think NIL matters except for the late rounds of the draft maybe not being as deep, but I don't even think that's the case once we get past this transition period with the covid year because then those dudes will just be regular seniors. At some point. Like you might get less of the juniors who are decently productive and toolsy but only have 4th to 5th round grades on them as if they go back they can really improve their draft grade by being a year older and more developed. Dexo fucked around with this message at 21:21 on Apr 29, 2024 |
# ? Apr 29, 2024 20:58 |
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Spencer Rattler just went in the 5th round. Seemingly because he was a shithead at 16.
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# ? Apr 29, 2024 21:01 |
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kiimo posted:Washington: let's hire Kingsbury to run an air raid offense! Kliff added a bunch of normal pro stuff to his scheme even at Arizona, whether or not Kyler could run it is another question, but he hasn’t been pure air raid in the pros. It also sounds like some teams saw Maye’s footwork as a big enough concern to drop him down their boards
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# ? Apr 29, 2024 21:01 |
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The Puppy Bowl posted:Spencer Rattler just went in the 5th round. Seemingly because he was a shithead at 16. He had four years of pedestrian production and The lasting moment for him is going to probably be Caleb coming in that OU game taking the starting job and never giving it back. It makes complete sense that he went in the fifth round. I legitimately think that the meta that is seemingly coming is there is not going to be very many day two quarterbacks at all anymore as if you are good enough to draft that high someone is going to take you in the first if only for the 5th year option. and if you aren't there's no rush to get you in the second or third.
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# ? Apr 29, 2024 21:05 |
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Not that it's the same but Mahomes was a reach at 10 because of footwork. Hell I heard it even in this very forum
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# ? Apr 29, 2024 21:05 |
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kiimo posted:Not that it's the same but Mahomes was a reach at 10 because of footwork. Hell I heard it even in this very forum I mean he went to the perfect situation, I don't see what's wrong in his draft profile: quote:Overview Like put him on the 2018 Browns or Jets, and he's a bust, hopefully a Mayfield-esque reclamation success at this point.
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# ? Apr 29, 2024 21:10 |
'take them first or take them last' If a QB could be legit, that's worth a first. Otherwise it's later round fliers
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# ? Apr 29, 2024 21:11 |
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NIL is fantastic for the common man and absolutely brutal for college coaches but I don't think it affects the draft that much. You still make more getting drafted than the top current NIL deals although I suppose that number will fluctuate as boosters/companies go crazy. The real problem is the medical hardships the NCAA is handing out like candy. If you're third on the depth chart you can just say your foot hurts and you'll get an extra year of eligibility somewhere.
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# ? Apr 29, 2024 21:16 |
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Kalli posted:I mean he went to the perfect situation, I don't see what's wrong in his draft profile: Profile reads about right. Staying patient and playing within framework is something Mahomes worked on and now does better than almost anyone, without sacrificing any of his improvisational magic. I will say "NFL Comparable: Jay Cutler" is not something I expected.
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# ? Apr 29, 2024 21:18 |
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Just listening to the Bucs beat writers podcast, the Bucs didn't like Powers-Johnson attitude or something and wouldn't have drafted him in the second round had he lasted there. Christian Mahogany was another one that they took off the board because they didn't like how he'd be as a locker room fit.
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# ? Apr 29, 2024 21:21 |
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Dexo posted:QBs will probably not stay if they are good prospects. If they are third round or later graded then maybe as if they do have their outlier year they will get drafted in the first and then bust somewhere. NIL is probably more relevant for guys who are good in college but with very fringe potential in the NFL, to the point of possibly going undrafted. Not first round QBs Dexo posted:He had four years of pedestrian production and The lasting moment for him is going to probably be Caleb coming in that OU game taking the starting job and never giving it back. Not to mention the absolutely abysmal results recently for 2nd - 3rd round quarterbacks. A few data points doesn't make a trend, but I do think that NFL decision makers are susceptible to that kind of thinking. All that aside, Rattler was about a fifth round talent, maybe 4th, in any case.
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# ? Apr 29, 2024 22:34 |
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kiimo posted:Scared me so I went back and checked and Chiefs first three picks were 20, 21 and 21. Not foolin Veach with that Covid Age Trap Makes sense - Brett Veach and Andrew Berry are the DiCaprios of the NFL. The Browns managed to get a 20 year old as their first pick in the second round. Wiley being older is fine though. He's a former QB. The Chiefs love a pass catcher who's a former QB
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# ? Apr 29, 2024 23:20 |
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https://twitter.com/ArifHasanNFL/status/1785013671552540956 lmao all these dudes are such easy marks.
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# ? Apr 30, 2024 01:27 |
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Article had some "wtf" moments but was a cool insight into the drafting process nonetheless. At least they weren't reading tea leaves though I'm not sure that's worse.
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# ? Apr 30, 2024 02:13 |
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3 DONG HORSE posted:Article had some "wtf" moments but was a cool insight into the drafting process nonetheless. At least they weren't reading tea leaves though I'm not sure that's worse. Yeah I found it pretty interesting, to see how these teams convince themselves about certain guys. Much of it being EXTREMELY unscientific. That being said what is with that formatting? There's like 5 - 10 line breaks between each paragraph
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# ? Apr 30, 2024 02:28 |
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Play posted:Yeah I found it pretty interesting, to see how these teams convince themselves about certain guys. Much of it being EXTREMELY unscientific. My guess is ads but I'm not gonna turn off ad block to find out .
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# ? Apr 30, 2024 02:48 |
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I still don't hate Atlanta's logic is taking a quarterback at 8. I do question taking one nearly as old as Cousins.
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# ? Apr 30, 2024 03:25 |
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has anyone asked ryan pace what kind of car penix drives
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# ? Apr 30, 2024 04:12 |
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Sataere posted:I still don't hate Atlanta's logic is taking a quarterback at 8. I do question taking one nearly as old as Cousins. Personally, I would've taken JJ McCarthy if that were the logic. I get it, kind of.
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# ? Apr 30, 2024 05:20 |
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it's good Bo Nix had football related stuff in his bag instead of say, a movie theater box of Milk Duds and a Glock.
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# ? Apr 30, 2024 14:31 |
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Pron on VHS posted:it's good Bo Nix had football related stuff in his bag instead of say, a movie theater box of Milk Duds and a Glock. on the other hand, he could've had weird sex stuff and a lot of dollar bills. I'd give him high marks for that.
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# ? Apr 30, 2024 14:37 |
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Pron on VHS posted:it's good Bo Nix had football related stuff in his bag instead of say, a movie theater box of Milk Duds and a Glock. If Bo Nix had taken out a shotgun and a pistol, Payton would've argued it increased the potential formations for the offense
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# ? Apr 30, 2024 14:42 |
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Imagine he brought out a CD "I call this my Nixtape, wanna listen?"
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# ? Apr 30, 2024 15:10 |
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I was wondering how much Sean Payton would've hated it if Nix had brought a book along to read on the plane. A book not related to football. Just for reading enjoyment
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# ? Apr 30, 2024 16:02 |
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A Sneaker Broker posted:Personally, I would've taken JJ McCarthy if that were the logic. I get it, kind of. Same. I think if the pick was JJM, they'd have a lot less criticism. Of course, JJM refused to work out for them, so that's it's own problem.
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# ? Apr 30, 2024 16:18 |
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HUGE grade Raging grade https://x.com/ArifHasanNFL/status/1785014200454222324
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# ? Apr 30, 2024 18:08 |
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Maybe the biggest grade ever, many people are saying so. Scouts came to Mickey, strong scouts straight out of central casting, with tears in their eyes, saying thank you sir for being brave enough to have such a huge grade on Patrick Mahomes. lol if it came out that my GM had correctly identified what Mahomes would become but couldn’t be assed to trade up one spot he wouldn’t be my GM anymore.
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# ? Apr 30, 2024 18:24 |
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The Saints missing out on Mahomes isn't new information at all. We've known that since shortly after he was picked 10. They traded up to 10 for a reason too
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# ? Apr 30, 2024 18:57 |
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kiimo posted:The Saints missing out on Mahomes isn't new information at all. We've known that since shortly after he was picked 10. They traded up to 10 for a reason too We broke that man, now he's drafting wild QB's he don't need.
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# ? Apr 30, 2024 20:40 |
Docjowles posted:Maybe the biggest grade ever, many people are saying so. Scouts came to Mickey, strong scouts straight out of central casting, with tears in their eyes, saying thank you sir for being brave enough to have such a huge grade on Patrick Mahomes. I think this is what makes Howie Rosman and Brad Holmes good GMs. They believe their board, and Will do whatever it takes to get it.
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# ? May 1, 2024 01:23 |
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kiimo posted:The Saints missing out on Mahomes isn't new information at all. We've known that since shortly after he was picked 10. They traded up to 10 for a reason too We honestly did need Lattimore at the time but yeah if we had known was going to be Patrick Mahomes well we should’ve jumped up to 9. But if that’s the case Chicago would’ve picked him up at 2.
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# ? May 1, 2024 17:52 |
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I'd say since Howie took over in 2010 the Eagles have had more bad drafts than good. People like to crown him for Davis slipping to him but the Cowboys reap on that far more.
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# ? May 1, 2024 18:00 |
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Howie seems like one of the biggest 'chalk' drafters in the league. Over the past few years like 80% of his day 1 and day 2 picks have exactly matched the consensus big board. Big time believer in the wisdom of the crowd I suppose
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# ? May 1, 2024 20:57 |
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Howie just likes to talk to people and he's actually the one source for every single draftnik's leaks.
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# ? May 1, 2024 20:59 |
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# ? Jun 10, 2024 12:36 |
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Doltos posted:I'd say since Howie took over in 2010 the Eagles have had more bad drafts than good. People like to crown him for Davis slipping to him but the Cowboys reap on that far more. Daltos this isn't really related to anything but I tracked down the VoD of your draft twitch stream to listen to your reactions in bits and pieces between projects at work and dude you need to get that voice on the radio Also your Bo Nix stuff had me rolling when you couldn't find any good clips while trying to list his positives.
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# ? May 1, 2024 21:01 |