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Jhet
Jun 3, 2013

T-Bone posted:


if you get a Klingberg or a Justin Schultz in the 2nd you're elated

like oh drat we got a guy who played 20 minutes on a back to back Stanley Cup winner or the guy who put up 40+ points from the backend five straight years drat we really struck out on our 34% chance to make the NHL pick rate

I'm just pointing out the dissonance in the constant complaining. If having a bunch of defenders who have offensive talent prioritized is the goal, then no one should be surprised when you're winning or loosing games by 6-4 score lines all year and your goalie looks like he's wearing swiss cheese pads. There definitely needs to be both types of player though, because then you don't have anyone who can run a power play unit. New Jersey is pretty full of those offense first type of player at the moment too, and could probably use someone better than Bahl or Marino to actually defend. Nemec isn't there yet, but he might get there in a year or two. It's just going to be porous until it happens.

I'm watching the Kraken roster in the same way. Vince Dunn is sort of mid at offense and defense, but then you have Adam Larsson and Oleksiak who can defend, but they have almost no offensive upside. Having put up with Justin Schultz all year, I feel not at all elated even when considering it was Hakstol's system.

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T-Bone
Sep 14, 2004

jakes did this?
You should take the best player in the draft, always and forever. The Devils got insane value at #46, whether he ultimately fits in to their particular composition of players, who cares. He's already a more valuable asset than just about everyone picked in the 2nd round, and a lot of the guys in the 1st round.

grack
Jan 10, 2012

COACH TOTORO SAY REFEREE CAN BANISH WHISTLE TO LAND OF WIND AND GHOSTS!

Are they tanking for first overall or what? Travis Green should not be coaching an NHL hockey team.

The Dirty Burger
Aug 24, 2007

1st team all star
+
2nd degree manslaughter
=
3rd world clothing line
When you get a chance to hire a coach with a career .467 win percentage that not a single other team has interviewed you gotta jump on it

BRAKE FOR MOOSE
Jun 6, 2001

The Dirty Burger posted:

When you get a chance to hire a coach with a career .467 win percentage that not a single other team has interviewed you gotta jump on it

NJ gave him a courtesy interview!

The Dirty Burger
Aug 24, 2007

1st team all star
+
2nd degree manslaughter
=
3rd world clothing line
https://x.com/primetimesens/status/1787564676655595910?s=46&t=2hVb1vPytx9OUpdE0UPz6Q

shyduck
Oct 3, 2003


It's like Melnyk never left

WeaponX
Jul 28, 2008




:laffo:

Mind_Taker
May 7, 2007



Nissin Cup Nudist posted:

Marner has 11 mil and a NMC. Even with cap going up, which teams are actually in on him

I could see Washington being in on him, provided Marner actually waives his NMC for a team like the Capitals. Washington has a lot of cap space (especially if Oshie also goes on LTIR next year) and they are looking for a legit top 6 forward.

But I don't know what they have that Toronto would want in return. They'd want Carlson but he's not going anywhere. I joked Wilson for Marner but I think Washington is too stupid to trade Wilson even if Toronto is stupid enough to want Wilson.

Blackbelt Bobman
Jul 17, 2004

I don't need friends! I've been
manipulatin' you since the start!
All so I can something,
something X-Blade!


Koopa Kid posted:

Marner has always dreamed of being a… Buffalo Sabre?

Mitch Marner has been traded to the Buffalo Sabres for Jeff Skinner. The trade is one for one.

I would be sad if they traded Skinner, he’s my favorite.

Koopa Kid
Aug 21, 2007



re: offensive defensemen, imo the dissonance comes from the long-held belief that becoming an effective defender is a matter of effort and discipline, rather than a combination of skills and traits, while creativity and scoring are seen as unique gifts.

People think any good scoring dman should be able to learn to defend well, so it becomes a moral failing on the part of the defender if they make the league and don’t become at least passable in their own end, thus the amount of poo poo they get for being who they are.

Jamwad Hilder
Apr 18, 2007

surfin usa
I could see a team like Detroit ponying up some of their prospects for Marner, but I don't know if Toronto would trade in division. Could also see Utah, with the new owner wanting to make a splash. They have a ton of prospects too. Or maybe Nashville, since they might be moving on from Saros anyway and lord knows Toronto needs a goalie.

Aphrodite
Jun 27, 2006

I remember one of the fancy stats sites did a deep dive that suggested Erik Karlsson was so phenomenally bad at defense that even at his absolute peak, he averaged out to a zero benefit in Ottawa.

Obviously over shorter periods of time like their playoff run it worked out in their favor though.

Jhet
Jun 3, 2013

Koopa Kid posted:

re: offensive defensemen, imo the dissonance comes from the long-held belief that becoming an effective defender is a matter of effort and discipline, rather than a combination of skills and traits, while creativity and scoring are seen as unique gifts.

People think any good scoring dman should be able to learn to defend well, so it becomes a moral failing on the part of the defender if they make the league and don’t become at least passable in their own end, thus the amount of poo poo they get for being who they are.

That's a good point, and terribly wrong in practice. Defending well is also a unique combination of skills and traits, and while it does require discipline and effort, so does being an effective goal scorer. You don't get there without having effort and discipline. It's why the best defenders make mediocre defenders look like they're playing a different game entirely. Taking a position half a step to the right or left can make a huge amount of difference, reading the angle and speed and then hitting that gap control a foot closer, lifting a stick or taking a specific body position is just very important too. It's why Jonas Brodin can often make Connor McDavid look like a normal hockey player and why Drew Doughty has lasted as long as he has. They're creative defenders, it just doesn't look as cool as making a killer move on the puck and beating the goalie top shelf.

Aphrodite posted:

I remember one of the fancy stats sites did a deep dive that suggested Erik Karlsson was so phenomenally bad at defense that even at his absolute peak, he averaged out to a zero benefit in Ottawa.

Obviously over shorter periods of time like their playoff run it worked out in their favor though.

Like Bedard in Chicago this year?

Jhet fucked around with this message at 23:20 on May 6, 2024

mennoknight
Nov 24, 2003

I WILL JUST EAT ONE MORE SANDWICH
OH MY HEAD EXPLORDED I'M JAY FATSTER
Manner for Huberdeau who says no

DO YALL WANT A BOXC
Jul 20, 2010

HAHA! WOOOOOOO WOOO!
Fun Shoe

Aphrodite posted:

I remember one of the fancy stats sites did a deep dive that suggested Erik Karlsson was so phenomenally bad at defense that even at his absolute peak, he averaged out to a zero benefit in Ottawa.

Obviously over shorter periods of time like their playoff run it worked out in their favor though.

i just cannot buy this at all. i'd be curious which model this is. I believe JFresh's/Dom's models always rates him super highly, which I also don't totally buy. but IMO he's always been much, much, much closer to the best defenseman in the league than an average or replacement one.

Jhet
Jun 3, 2013

DO YALL WANT A BOXC posted:

i just cannot buy this at all. i'd be curious which model this is. I believe JFresh's/Dom's models always rates him super highly, which I also don't totally buy. but IMO he's always been much, much, much closer to the best defenseman in the league than an average or replacement one.

EK was a net benefit this year overall for sure. I think he was somewhere around 30-40ish overall, but his defending is much better than people like to talk about. Even in San Jose it was.

DO YALL WANT A BOXC
Jul 20, 2010

HAHA! WOOOOOOO WOOO!
Fun Shoe
I will say that Travis Green is in the pantheon of sick 90s flow, so you at least get to reminisce about this when you see him:

DO YALL WANT A BOXC posted:



e: holy loving poo poo


Koopa Kid
Aug 21, 2007



All the publicly available so-called isolated metrics are complete dogshit at reliably separating a defender’s results from his partner and deployments, so I’d buy that EK shows poorly as a result of being on the Ottawa Senators but not believe we could go much more granular than that with historic data

BRAKE FOR MOOSE
Jun 6, 2001

Koopa Kid posted:

All the publicly available so-called isolated metrics are complete dogshit at reliably separating a defender’s results from his partner and deployments, so I’d buy that EK shows poorly as a result of being on the Ottawa Senators but not believe we could go much more granular than that with historic data

It was funny this year how multiple fancystats people wrote articles about deployment, because the Red Wings defense was so dogshit that Moritz Seider was on the ice against top lines as much as humanly possible and it cratered his xG% and had people asking "wait, is he bad now?"

Koopa Kid
Aug 21, 2007



BRAKE FOR MOOSE posted:

It was funny this year how multiple fancystats people wrote articles about deployment, because the Red Wings defense was so dogshit that Moritz Seider was on the ice against top lines as much as humanly possible and it cratered his xG% and had people asking "wait, is he bad now?"

Yeah it’s nice that the stats community is constantly updating and revising their models but it also sure as poo poo makes the old arguments insisting that x or y didn’t matter because it didn’t show in old data look pretty silly

Aphrodite
Jun 27, 2006

DO YALL WANT A BOXC posted:

i just cannot buy this at all. i'd be curious which model this is. I believe JFresh's/Dom's models always rates him super highly, which I also don't totally buy. but IMO he's always been much, much, much closer to the best defenseman in the league than an average or replacement one.

He was still in Ottawa, so it’s probably pretty drat hard to find today.

The Dirty Burger
Aug 24, 2007

1st team all star
+
2nd degree manslaughter
=
3rd world clothing line

DO YALL WANT A BOXC posted:

I will say that Travis Green is in the pantheon of sick 90s flow, so you at least get to reminisce about this when you see him:

Seen this on the tl and have 180’d on him being coach

https://x.com/jsani/status/1787621118272053497?s=46&t=2hVb1vPytx9OUpdE0UPz6Q

Eric the Mauve
May 8, 2012

Making you happy for a buck since 199X
poo poo like waiting three years too long to finally sack Keefe, only to decide that the answer to what ails them is Craig fuckin' Berube... well, that's why the Maple Leafs are where they are as an organization.

Marner could be moveable in theory, but the Leafs aren't going to get a top pairing or even second pairing defenseman for him, because contending teams aren't going to give one of those up and Marner won't accept a trade to a lesser team. All they'd get is a cap dump to buy out and a pile of draft picks which they'd then have to try to broker to a third team for another veteran. They're probably stuck with him.

If the Pens open up the cap space Marner would require, they'll use it to bring Guentzel back.

SilvergunSuperman
Aug 7, 2010


I hope they extend McCabe and move him to the first pairing and move Rielly into a landfill or something

shyduck
Oct 3, 2003


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4NDSxLfvJj0

Twin Cinema
Jun 1, 2006



Playoffs are no big deal,
don't have a crap attack.
I fully believe Karlsson is the sole reason Ottawa made it to the Conference Finals that one season,

Eric the Mauve
May 8, 2012

Making you happy for a buck since 199X
Craig Anderson standing on his head for a month really helped too. But poo poo, that Senators team didn't merely make the conference finals, they very very nearly made it to the Cup Final.

Precambrian Video Games
Aug 19, 2002



Fun fact, Rielly was bad but still 6-3 in 5v5 GF vs GA. Meanwhile Lyubushkin was 6-1 and the only 5v5 goal against he was on for all series was the game 7 OT winner.

Twin Cinema
Jun 1, 2006



Playoffs are no big deal,
don't have a crap attack.

Eric the Mauve posted:

Craig Anderson standing on his head for a month really helped too. But poo poo, that Senators team didn't merely make the conference finals, they very very nearly made it to the Cup Final.

I looked and Game 7 was double overtime, too. We were very close to having the weirdest Finals of Ottawa vs. Nashville.

The Dirty Burger
Aug 24, 2007

1st team all star
+
2nd degree manslaughter
=
3rd world clothing line
Draft lottery tonight, I’ve made peace and am mentally ready for Macklin to the Blackhawks

Darude - Adam Sandstorm
Aug 16, 2012

Eric the Mauve posted:

poo poo like waiting three years too long to finally sack Keefe, only to decide that the answer to what ails them is Craig fuckin' Berube... well, that's why the Maple Leafs are where they are as an organization.

Marner could be moveable in theory, but the Leafs aren't going to get a top pairing or even second pairing defenseman for him, because contending teams aren't going to give one of those up and Marner won't accept a trade to a lesser team. All they'd get is a cap dump to buy out and a pile of draft picks which they'd then have to try to broker to a third team for another veteran. They're probably stuck with him.

If the Pens open up the cap space Marner would require, they'll use it to bring Guentzel back.

You only need to look at the Dubois or Tkachuk trades to see what a young top line player can get you even when you only have a couple options on where to go. (Huberdeau extension notwithstanding.)

A team that wants Marner won't want him to go to market.

T-Bone
Sep 14, 2004

jakes did this?
https://twitter.com/DarrenDreger/status/1787860546970169466

Aphrodite
Jun 27, 2006

Real bad work ethic from Celebrini there. Whoever gets first should draft someone else.

Eric the Mauve
May 8, 2012

Making you happy for a buck since 199X

The Dirty Burger posted:

Draft lottery tonight, I’ve made peace and am mentally ready for Macklin to the Blackhawks

Yyyyyyyyyyyep.

To be honest it's probably a good thing for the NHL that they've finally figured out how to rig draft lotteries. Would have been a lot better if they'd figured it out 10 years ago when McDavid hit the league. But the fact they're doing it to settle what they perceive as what they owe to the Blackhawks for putting them through all that unpleasantness of actually slapping their wrist for aiding and abetting a serial rapist... ugh, that's just awful beyond words.

Jamwad Hilder
Apr 18, 2007

surfin usa
I think I'd like to see San Jose win the lottery. Sure they nakedly tanked and all, but this is the first stretch in like 20 years they've really been a bad team and they seem to be going about the rebuild the right way, plus Celebrini is kiiiind of a hometown player if you squint. He played for the Jr. Sharks while his dad was director of sports medicine for the Golden State Warriors. More importantly it'd be a team that hasn't already had a top of top-5 picks in recent history, and it's not the Blackhawks.

AntiDepressor
Jun 3, 2011

Jamwad Hilder posted:

I think I'd like to see San Jose win the lottery. Sure they nakedly tanked and all, but this is the first stretch in like 20 years they've really been a bad team and they seem to be going about the rebuild the right way, plus Celebrini is kiiiind of a hometown player if you squint. He played for the Jr. Sharks while his dad was director of sports medicine for the Golden State Warriors. More importantly it'd be a team that hasn't already had a top of top-5 picks in recent history, and it's not the Blackhawks.

Obviously rooting for the Habs but the Sharks are the other team I would be cool with because of how dire that team is. As long as it’s not the Hawks (and Ottawa for selfish reasons).

SilvergunSuperman
Aug 7, 2010

Literally anyone but loving chicago

DancingMachine
Aug 12, 2004

He's a dancing machine!

Finally found the loser thread so I'm catching up. The springtime serenity vibes with the birds chirping in the background is really :discourse:. Must watch with the sound turned on.

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The Dirty Burger
Aug 24, 2007

1st team all star
+
2nd degree manslaughter
=
3rd world clothing line
https://x.com/onlysenators/status/1787882093701140876?s=46&t=2hVb1vPytx9OUpdE0UPz6Q

Meet the new guy, same as the old guy lol

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