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CAESAR has the best name of all weapons. CAmion Équipé d'un Système d'ARtillerie - truck with an artillery piece on it.
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Apr 22, 2022 16:00
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WaltherFeng posted:Many experts seem to think Russia has nothing to mobilize with. A new Perun video dropped earlier today that covered this in some detail, discussing the potential and possibilities of a long-term war (including mobilisation). TL/DW: -Russian active and reserve stocks give them a major advantage in the early-mid war, though there is a question over their readiness. -Russia is 'on a clock', with their advantages diminishing over time, but there is a mountain for Ukraine to climb. -Over time, the balance shifts to Ukraine (but from a non-even start), due to West's massive economic/MIC advantage -There are numerous bottlenecks to sustainably uparming and building capabilities of Ukraine (training, infrastructure, political will). Can't just send A-10s on a truck. -But efforts should be made regardless on assumption war may go long, so work should start now. -Lend lease potentially very significant, taboos in providing heavier weapons eroding.
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Apr 22, 2022 16:01
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Alchenar posted:Big RUSI paper on the war. Contains some interesting new narrative on the opening days: I feel like this will backfire in a huge way https://twitter.com/Jack_Watling/status/1517475918654156800
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Apr 22, 2022 16:03
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Sir John Falstaff posted:https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1517457629630455808 they keep saying this could last years: Maybe the overall geopolitical anger with Russia, but honestly I suspect by the end of this year we're going to see one of two things: 1. Either Russia suddenly makes major gains and Ukraine falls 2. Russia runs out of equipment and is largely pushed out of mainland Ukraine. I suspect the latter, and I suspect it won't be years.
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Apr 22, 2022 16:04
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Bug Squash posted:I think we would be surprised how little would be needed for the propaganda machine to spin it as a "win". Putin still seems fairly invincible internally, and RT has near total control of the information the majority of Russians receive. If they called anything a victory and just arrest anyone who says otherwise as a traitor then who's going to contradict them? There is no "win" for Putin as Ukraine's entrance into the EU will, in Putin's mind, be destabilizing. The prospect of a prosperous liberal democracy on his border is too dire to contemplate. Additionally, from his perspective, there is no practical difference between EU membership and NATO. As Ukraine will not agree to any terms that preclude EU membership, his only avenue to prevent such a political catastrophe is Ukrainian subjection. While we might believe that he has not the military strength to effect such a win, Putin, I believe, in his insane determination, believes otherwise. This war will long continue.
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Apr 22, 2022 16:05
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https://twitter.com/flash43191300/status/1517479499125952513 I don’t know precise location of this, but Korolyov is famous for its space industry. This set of fires in strategically important locations is getting increasingly spicy.
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Apr 22, 2022 16:07
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the popes toes posted:While we might believe that he has not the military strength to effect such a win, Putin, I believe, in his insane determination, believes otherwise. This war will long continue. Sadly for Putin, militaries are not powered by mental determination. And he's largely losing in bulk what normally powers armies: Logistics, Fuel, Food, and equipment. He's lost so much in such a short period, I don't see a years long sustainment being possible. CommieGIR fucked around with this message at 16:10 on Apr 22, 2022 |
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Apr 22, 2022 16:07
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DandyLion posted:Which pushes what endgame narrative? Eventual full mobilization? But suggesting a Russophobic conspiracy of the whole world arrayed against Russia *does *lend itself to selling even very modest gains as a major victory whenever a peace settlement is finally landed. I can see this being the spin: "Despite the military support of the whole of NATO - the whole world against Mother Russia! - we *still* humbled Ukraine and forced them to accept neutral status! They're never joining NATO! Moreover, we ensured denazification by cutting the head off Azov in Mariupol, we secured protection and autonomy for our Russian brethren in LDNR." Who knows, maybe they'll even have a land corridor to Crimea to boast about depending on how things shake out. PerilPastry fucked around with this message at 16:12 on Apr 22, 2022 |
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Apr 22, 2022 16:09
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CommieGIR posted:they keep saying this could last years: Maybe the overall geopolitical anger with Russia, but honestly I suspect by the end of this year we're going to see one of two things: Option 3 is Russia mobilizing more troops and trying to delay the war. My guess is the current offensives are to get the actual active army to capture the land areas Putin wants to defend (looks like all of Donbas + land bridge). Putin can then mobilize just the reservists, let's say 300K, to send there and dig them into trenches. All they need for that are rifles and basic AT weapons. The remaining active army will provide artillery support and air support. It will be hard to attack 300K entrenched troops and that can buy Russia 8 more years of protracted war just like it was since 2014 (although it was a smaller front). The issue is that the current active forces that Russia has in Ukraine are not enough to defend all of that territory and mobilizing reservists will take at least 4-5 months to get them out to the battle lines. If Ukraine can recapture the territory by September then mobilization won't matter. Poorly equipped reservists and conscripts can't attack, they can only be useful in defense. Just because this is a stupid plan doesn't mean Putin wouldn't want to do it. Rad Russian fucked around with this message at 16:16 on Apr 22, 2022 |
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Apr 22, 2022 16:11
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CommieGIR posted:Sadly for Putin, militaries are not powered by mental determination. And he's largely losing in bulk what normally powers armies: Logistics, Fuel, Food, and equipment. mental determination is a huge part of militaries, which is a big reason ukraine is punching above its weight and russia is...not but mental determination of the soldiers fighting not the old nutter shouting about his determination as he orders other people to risk their lives while he won't get within 20 feet of someone else for fear of covid, when that "determination" is just refusal to be personally embarrassed by losing (the determination of zelensky to risk his life staying in kyiv, on the other hand, did fuel his military)
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Apr 22, 2022 16:12
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cinci zoo sniper posted:https://twitter.com/flash43191300/status/1517479499125952513 some people are claiming it's a significant target, though I can't speak to their accuracy obviously https://twitter.com/Charles_Lister/status/1517519085776613377
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Apr 22, 2022 16:13
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Saladman posted:So have the brainworm-infested people on Twitter already gone crazy over these Ukrainians using blackface, which adds to not only are they Nazis, but they’re also KKK Nazis?  (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Apr 22, 2022 16:14
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https://meduza.io/feature/2022/04/2...reytinga-putina According to Meduza’s sources, Kremlin is at loss on how to end this war without entering into peace talks and, thus, cratering Putin’s ratings. They also claim that Kremlin’s insiders are complaining that the Nazism theme has been overdone by the propaganda (in a difficult to step down from manner).
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Apr 22, 2022 16:14
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https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1517512148225867776 Kharkiv subway concert by local musicians https://twitter.com/LachowskiMateus/status/1517214561652330496 Nuclear weapon speculation increases https://twitter.com/CovertShores/status/1517518693055578113 cinci zoo sniper posted:https://twitter.com/flash43191300/status/1517479499125952513 eke out posted:some people are claiming it's a significant target, though I can't speak to their accuracy obviously Risky Bisquick fucked around with this message at 16:17 on Apr 22, 2022 |
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Apr 22, 2022 16:14
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cinci zoo sniper posted:I don’t know precise location of this, but Korolyov is famous for its space industry. This set of fires in strategically important locations is getting increasingly spicy. That just looks like a random warehouse to me.
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Apr 22, 2022 16:17
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Rad Russian posted:My guess is the current offensives are to get the actual active army to capture the land areas Putin wants to defend (looks like all of Donbas + land bridge). Putin can then mobilize just the reservists, let's say 300K, to send there and dig them into trenches. All they need for that are rifles and basic AT weapons. The remaining active army will provide artillery support and air support. It will be hard to attack 300K entrenched troops and that can buy Russia 8 more years of protracted war just like it was since 2014 (although it was a smaller front). I'm curious though: Ukraine's mobilization is all but complete, right? And surely a lot of recruits must have finished basic training by now. What kind of numbers could we expect to see Ukraine field in a counteroffensive later this Summer?
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Apr 22, 2022 16:17
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PerilPastry posted:I can see that being plausible too. 400k veterans if they have the equipment to arm them. Plus hundreds of thousands of volunteers if they have the equipment to arm and the spare cadre to train them from scratch.
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Apr 22, 2022 16:20
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PerilPastry posted:I can see that being plausible too. Number of troops won't matter on the offensive, it's firepower. That's why these artillery and armored fighting vehicle transfers are so critical and insufficient. Sheer number of troops won't launch an offensive, though continued infantry combat may wear down Russian forces through attrition. A lot of these Ukrainian reserves will likely need additional training to operate them, or be used to replace troops that will be rotated out for more advanced training on the heavy equipment.
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Apr 22, 2022 16:20
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Risky Bisquick posted:Nuclear weapon speculation increases Was this already in the fleet? If not, how'd they get it there?
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Apr 22, 2022 16:23
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Every day Russia sounds more and more like a bud light swilling abusive partner.
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Apr 22, 2022 16:23
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slowdave posted:That just looks like a random warehouse to me. I'm saying that city is important, as it has a ton of Roskosmos facilities. I used to have a friend who worked there. The specifics of the building on fire are unknown to me.
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Apr 22, 2022 16:24
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I don't think Ukraine is even close to completing mobilisation, it seems like the limiting factor is their ability to fit out new formations with equipment.
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Apr 22, 2022 16:25
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Discendo Vox posted:Was this already in the fleet? If not, how'd they get it there?
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Apr 22, 2022 16:26
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cinci zoo sniper posted:https://meduza.io/feature/2022/04/2...reytinga-putina yeah, they escalate to the point where it would be unpopular to say " uh we finished and ukraine promised to not gently caress with us". they can only double down but they can't really do much more. eke out posted:some people are claiming it's a significant target, though I can't speak to their accuracy obviously i am curious what the gently caress this is. my guess is ukranian/??? cells in russia, OR maybe some weird lesser IC agencies are gunning for the throne. this poo poo isnt stuff that would be targeted by angry protesters or false flag poo poo.
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Apr 22, 2022 16:27
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As Kofman has said a million times, the limiting factor for Ukraine's forces is equipment, not bodies.
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Apr 22, 2022 16:27
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Barudak posted:I refuse to engage the possibility this is anything but a deep level of irony. REFUSE In a quick look on the Twitter thread I didn’t see anyone parrot that view, uuuut if that image went viral I’m sure you wouldn’t have to look too long to find someone actually saying that and meaning it.
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Apr 22, 2022 16:28
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cinci zoo sniper posted:I'm saying that city is important, as it has a ton of Roskosmos facilities. I used to have a friend who worked there. The specifics of the building on fire are unknown to me. https://www.mskagency.ru/materials/3206561 According to local news, bitumen roof cover of a building under reconstruction was on fire. That would explain the giant smoke pillar. The original source tweet has already been deleted.
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Apr 22, 2022 16:28
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Russia Is planning for a long conflict We are back folks. World war one has returned to the forefront and god willing the Serbians will defeat the Austrian imperialists this time. Ukraine standing in for Serbia and Russia for the austro hungs.
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Apr 22, 2022 16:29
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Thanks everyone.cinci zoo sniper posted:https://meduza.io/feature/2022/04/2...reytinga-putina Once you have a wolf by the ears you don't want to let go, but I'm surprised the Kremlin doesn't have ways of redirecting this kind of rampant chauvinism into a new avenue? With an iron grip on the media and plenty of chud pundits to puppeteer, you'd think they'd be able to sell a narrative of victory/successful denazification: PerilPastry posted:suggesting a Russophobic conspiracy of the whole world arrayed against Russia *does *lend itself to selling even very modest gains as a major victory whenever a peace settlement is finally landed.
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Apr 22, 2022 16:29
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Dapper_Swindler posted:yeah, they escalate to the point where it would be unpopular to say " uh we finished and ukraine promised to not gently caress with us". they can only double down but they can't really do much more. My money is on compromissed IT systems leading to electrical failure.
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Apr 22, 2022 16:30
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PerilPastry posted:Thanks everyone. Also the fact that Russian/ukrianian partisans are now sabotaging major targets is 10/10 would be alive during this time again.
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Apr 22, 2022 16:30
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FSB agent: "now I will make money from 63 iphones of 13th model promax!
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Apr 22, 2022 16:30
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CommieGIR posted:He's lost so much in such a short period, I don't see a years long sustainment being possible. Recall the potential "10 year " war bruited by the Pentagon? Who also noted a few days ago that Russia "could still win this war"? I don't believe a Russian win is in the cards. But I do believe they'll try for it. And that this war may last a year longer, or more. Putin's constituency has the appetite for war, and it seems, demands it. His survival depends on it. Unfortunately he created this seemingly unwinnable war by his errors. He's boxed in. There's no where for him to go but a long war.
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Apr 22, 2022 16:30
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the popes toes posted:Recall the potential "10 year " war bruited by the Pentagon? Who also noted a few days ago that Russia "could still win this war"?
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Apr 22, 2022 16:32
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MrYenko posted:Every day Russia sounds more and more like a bud light swilling abusive partner. russian booze comercials are the same except when you spray with the booze hose everyone becomes babushka
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Apr 22, 2022 16:34
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WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:Russia Is planning for a long conflict Alan Smithee posted:FSB agent: "now I will make money from 63 iphones of 13th model promax! Risky Bisquick posted:Nuclear weapon speculation increases 
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Apr 22, 2022 16:37
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PerilPastry posted:Thanks everyone. The problem is they can probably not get much from Ukrainian that could be sold at home. I don't think Ukraine will accept anything but a full withdrawal of Russia from Donbass and Kherson. They will certainly not accept an imposition of neutrality, if it means no security guarantees and no EU membership. Selling a situation which is worse than the outset is hard. But I maintain that the longer this goes on, the bigger the chance of a Russian military disintegration which would be incredibly humiliating. Hence, I expect either a failed desperate offensive, attacking NATO in the mildest possible manner to draw them in to justify a withdrawal or simply a Russian major defeat. I cannot see this ending with Russian gaining any concessions at the table. They will eventually have to withdraw or be humiliated. The big question is what happens once Donbas is taken by Ukraine.
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Apr 22, 2022 16:38
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the popes toes posted:Recall the potential "10 year " war bruited by the Pentagon? Who also noted a few days ago that Russia "could still win this war"? He doesn't seem willing to conduct a full mobilization though. And every day he delays that pushes off the time range large numbers of reinforcements can arrive to 3~4 months in the future (assuming they are trained). And every month that passes the Ukranian army gets significantly larger and better equiped. Given that, it's very hard for me to see the Russian line lasting to the fall without collapsing.
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Apr 22, 2022 16:39
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Rad Russian posted:Option 3 is Russia mobilizing more troops and trying to delay the war. My guess is the current offensives are to get the actual active army to capture the land areas Putin wants to defend (looks like all of Donbas + land bridge). Putin can then mobilize just the reservists, let's say 300K, to send there and dig them into trenches. All they need for that are rifles and basic AT weapons. The remaining active army will provide artillery support and air support. It will be hard to attack 300K entrenched troops and that can buy Russia 8 more years of protracted war just like it was since 2014 (although it was a smaller front). Mobilizing troops only works if you can equip and supply them. EDIT: Oh, and train them.
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Apr 22, 2022 16:41
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mobby_6kl posted:
"Yevgeny! These are nokia flip phones of 2010!" *astonished* "You don't think the Finnish are pumping these into Ukraine?"
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Apr 22, 2022 16:42
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