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Most of them are only aging out and this was more of a last hurrah than anything. I don't think the republican brand is nearly as stained as everyone else seems to believe, and I blame the Democrats for that. They had a wonderful opportunity to basically tell America that this is really what the republican party wants, Trump is just the first guy to not couch his language, and instead they've distanced Trump from the rest of the party with their "He's unlike any republican EVER!" and "He's not from the party of Lincoln" language, even when he's saying poo poo that other republicans have said over and over. By branding him as an extremist who is not part of the party they'll do great this election, but provide cover to the republican party.
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Aug 7, 2016 19:55
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glowing-fish posted:Rand Paul (the total collapse of any type of libertarian, idea driven politics this cycle is a pretty big story) I disagree. I think Rand, critically, has time to adjust to the new era. He's going to be easily reelected this year, which gives him another six years in the Senate to further network. He's already formed a surprising number of friends in the Senate and has been a pretty effective bridge between his Kentucky Senate peer Mitch McConnell and some of the more radical firebrands. I think Rand will never be President or GOP nominee, but I think that he has the potential to be a pretty serious powerhouse in the Senate eventually.
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Aug 7, 2016 20:29
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Re-doing my post since it looks like Trump's going to have to battle to not get curb-stomped, which affects everyone's perception of the John Kasich: Will come out looking the best, in that he raised his profile on the national stage without humiliating himself or dehumanizing himself and facing to Trump. He's in great position to challenge Sherrod Brown for his Senate seat in 2018, and a win there puts Kasich in great position to make a challenge in 2020 if he wants to. 2024 would be iffy as Kasich would be 72 then, so his window is starting to close. If he loses the Senate race it would probably signal an end to his political career, so he'll need to weigh whether it's worth it or not. I'd say he's the early favorite going into 2020 but what that means is unknown. Ted Cruz: He had gambled everything on this election and lost. Trump took the lane that Cruz wanted and once Cruz realized this, it was too late for him. His heel turn during the Convention was all about setting up a 2020 run, but whether his reputation will recover by then is the issue. I still think he'll win re-election to the Senate because Texas is gonna Texas, but whether he'll be able to keep his name in the national spotlight without making an rear end out of himself or pissing off party leadership, who are going to be real eager to reclaim control after this past clusterfuck. He'll run, but I get the feeling he'll get knocked into the Santorum/Huckabee lane of irrelevancy and fade out. Marco Rubio: He'll win Senate re-election since it looks like the Dems are a mess down there, which surprises not a drat person. If things to go poo poo for Hillary during his first term, I'd look for him to make a real strong challenge at her in 2020. At 45 he's got time to do what he wants, so aiming for either 2020 or 2024 is imperative. Jeb!/Fiorina/Carson/The rest: Same as before, they'll keep their current roles or retire to the private sector, but they're done on the national stage. Paul Ryan: He's doing everything he can to not attach himself to Trump and be dragged down by him. Personally, I think he'd benefit from losing the House and getting to fight uphill against Hillary and a Dem Congress, especially if things do go to poo poo. He could go after Tammy Baldwin's Senate seat in 2018, which is the only in-state promotion he could gain with the other seat up this year and Scott Walker in office. He's in the same boat as Rubio; if Hillary's weak in 2020 they'll run and clash, otherwise they're the clubhouse leaders for 2024-28. Nikki Haley: She was doing everything but screaming "Pick me as VP", and had Kasich/Rubio won the nomination I think she would have been the choice if only to counter Hillary, but she was wise enough to not attach herself to Trump. Her term expires in 2019, which sets her up for a 2020 run for the main seat, or to run for Lindsey Graham's Senate seat if he elects to retire. Only 44 so she's in the same group as Rubio/Ryan. Tom Cotton: He's distancing himself from Trump and starting to rise on the right via the Ted Cruz playbook of saying dumb poo poo in the media, though I don't know if he's being as big an rear end as Cruz is to his colleagues. At 39 and in blood-red Arkansas he can wait and see even longer than the aforementioned three whippersnappers. Joni Ernst: Her seat isn't up until 2020, though Iowa's a swing state. 46 so she's still real young as well. She'll need to boost her national profile, however.
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Aug 8, 2016 02:11
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Pick posted:I think even if they go heavy Evangelical next time, it won't be with Cruz. He played all of his good cards, and now his tricks are known. And the stink of failing to defeat Trump (but appearing the closest) is pretty extreme. Its a big question whether "Evangelical" will mean anything once this cycle is over. One of the things that Trump did show is that the vague block of voters referred to as "Evangelicals" don't really have a religious affiliation as much as they have a cultural affiliation. Its not necessary to have a bible to appeal to these people...just to have a pickup truck. Or to seem like you might have one, even if you are a New York billionaire. Or something, it makes no sense. I am guessing that things are going to realign and that old demographics are not going to make much different after the Republican Party loses its third elections with the strategy of dogwhistle racism and obstructionism, but they've surprised me before.
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Aug 8, 2016 04:25
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I think its interesting the order that people got out of the Trump campaign, and what it will say for them when this election is over. First the movement conservatives got out. (They were never in, but some of them were at least somewhat amiable) The party elders who weren't in or seeking office (The Bushes, Mitt Romney, etc.) Then the old conservative press got out (George Will, Krauthammer, Kristol, a bunch of old guys I don't know) Much of the national security apparatus (the letter of 50) and maybe some of the military Some of the business community (And probably more of them soon: being embarrassed in the gaze of Petrobras executives is not what American bankers want to do) The voters (the polls really went downhill for Trump between his feud with the Khans and his 2nd Amendment comments) And the last hold outs? The Alt-Right, the conservative entertainment industry, and the party leadership. Paul Ryan, Mitch McConnell, Priebus, McCain, and pretty much every elected office holder that isn't Sasse, Graham or Collins (or the guy from Illinois who is going to lose anyway) are the only ones who are still onboard. Part of the reason why they've gotten away with it is that it has been so bizarre that stuff that has been big news has just gone by unnoticed. But in six months or a year, this stuff isn't just going to be bad, its going to be embarrassingly outdated, like disco. Paul Ryan's only words against Trump's assassination comments being that its a bad thing to joke about is the type of stuff that will be damning a year or even five years from now. People forget a lot. That type of stuff will stick, especially when the shock wears off. Basically, by being the last people to leave, the party establishment is going to look weak. The people who bailed before now will get some credit.
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Aug 16, 2016 14:57
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It's a hell of a spot that rank and file House and Senate Republicans are in regarding completely cutting off Trump right now, but I expect a bunch of them will find their courage after their respective primaries are over, particularly some in solid Republican seats who have more to worry about from a primary than from the general election. That said, even with the primary done, no one wants to be the first person to cross the Rubicon and support Gary Johnson or Hillary or Egg McMuffin. Republican leadership has a real fear of what Trump would do if he felt betrayed by the party, regardless of whether or not said betrayal is real. Quitting the race would probably relieve many leaders at that point, since they could focus resources on downballot races, but that isn't the only thing Trump could do. He could stay on the campaign trail, railing about how the election is rigged and how Republicans betrayed him, depressing Republican turnout across the board, to say nothing of the damage to the perception of the fundamental fairness of elections. That risk is why no Republican leader is doing anything other than wearily denouncing the latest inflammatory Trump remark. They're all trying to stop downballot bleeding and while things are bad at the top of the ticket, they've got a chance to keep the Senate, even if things don't improve, and things would need to get worse before they'd be at serious risk of losing the House. You're right that anyone who dog piles on Trump after it becomes clear he has no chance is gonna look weak, but I think there's understated risk with being the first person to jump on him, or with jumping on him too early.
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Aug 16, 2016 23:33
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Azathoth posted:That said, even with the primary done, no one wants to be the first person to cross the Rubicon and support Gary Johnson or Hillary or Egg McMuffin. I think there's a couple random reps that already have, but IIRC none of them are up for reelection.
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Aug 19, 2016 23:44
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LostCosmonaut posted:I think there's a couple random reps that already have, but IIRC none of them are up for reelection. Aside from those who have been vocally Never Trump throughout, I think we'll see the same coy "I haven't made up my mind yet" responses up until the last debate. If polls show Hillary up 7+ points and is judged to have either won the debate or at least held even, that's when you'll see leadership give the green light. It'll start the exact same way it did with Dole, when it was clear he was gonna lose, with Republicans stressing the need to keep control of the legislative branch as a counterbalance to President Clinton, but there's a real risk of it going much, much further. If Trump is gonna get trounced Goldwater-style and Republicans are playing defense in places like Missouri and Texas, I expect to see some moderate Republicans try to save their political careers with either a hasty rebranding as bipartisan dealmakers or voters of conscience who either vote McMuffin or write in someone popular in their state/district.
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Aug 20, 2016 00:35
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there hasn't been a shift from a libertarian wing to a populist wing. there has just been a shift where the wing of the party that used to pretend they were libertarians... stopped pretending
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Aug 20, 2016 01:19
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You're right on it not being a real shift, it's just the white, blue-collar part of the GWB coalition reasserting itself. As Bush crashed and burned in the second half of his presidency, Republicans were frantically casting about for a coherent ideology they could promote that wasn't Bush's compassionate conservatism, and going full Ron Paul was where they ended up. It provided convenient cover to prevent from being lumped together with the real and perceived failures of the Bush administration, and now that we're eight years away from it, the pretense isn't necessary. It's an interesting evolution, and is a striking reminder of just how much things can change, if you look at it over a sufficiently long time scale.
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Aug 20, 2016 02:37
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Guys, I gotta say. If Hillary wins then it was all worth it. Because Trump took down so many GOP shitbags along with him. I can't believe he loving neutralized Cruz for 2020. He was supposed to be the usurper and he loving bent the knee.
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Sep 30, 2016 00:43
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Tom Cotton will be around for as long as he manages to suck off all his big out of state donors, which is unfortunate because I get tired of hearing his dumb rear end talk about anything
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Sep 30, 2016 05:18
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Cruz is loving dead now if he wasn't before.
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Oct 2, 2016 21:04
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mugrim posted:Most of them are only aging out and this was more of a last hurrah than anything. I don't think the republican brand is nearly as stained as everyone else seems to believe, and I blame the Democrats for that. They had a wonderful opportunity to basically tell America that this is really what the republican party wants, Trump is just the first guy to not couch his language, and instead they've distanced Trump from the rest of the party with their "He's unlike any republican EVER!" and "He's not from the party of Lincoln" language, even when he's saying poo poo that other republicans have said over and over. By branding him as an extremist who is not part of the party they'll do great this election, but provide cover to the republican party. I agree. In fact, given three term fatigue, the likelihood of another recession in the next four years, and the Clinton propensity for scandals, I'd say Hillary is a long shot for reelection, even up against Ted Cruz or another hardliner.
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Oct 4, 2016 03:05
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all of them. every single one including donald trump. and they'll be back next election
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Oct 4, 2016 17:23
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im pretty sure if there was a charismatic nu-R type dude that didn't touch social issues at all and was firmly just "gently caress taxes" and took potshots at crazy third wave liberals or whatever he/she'd have an audience. Im in a profession where tons of young ppl are making good money and are now realizing taxes loving blow/gently caress you got mine. then again that's not really a new phenomenon but I dunno doesnt seem like the GOP is 100% dead
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Oct 5, 2016 00:43
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Scionix posted:im pretty sure if there was a charismatic nu-R type dude that didn't touch social issues at all and was firmly just "gently caress taxes" and took potshots at crazy third wave liberals or whatever he/she'd have an audience. Have you met the US Senate and House of Representatives?
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Oct 5, 2016 00:49
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Wyld Thang posted:Have you met the US Senate and House of Representatives? yes, they frequently do retarded poo poo like legislate bathrooms and allow citizens to sue foreign countries
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Oct 5, 2016 00:52
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Don't worry, Saudi Arabia won't get sued. Hillary's gonna nuke them if they don't pay up.
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Oct 5, 2016 01:00
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Scionix posted:im pretty sure if there was a charismatic nu-R type dude that didn't touch social issues at all and was firmly just "gently caress taxes" and took potshots at crazy third wave liberals or whatever he/she'd have an audience. Im in a profession where tons of young ppl are making good money and are now realizing taxes loving blow/gently caress you got mine. Milo/Pepe 2020.
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Oct 5, 2016 01:43
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OP, i think probably everyone except christie, jeb and maybe bobby jindal will be fine
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Oct 5, 2016 09:42
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no one liked christie even before all the fat reek stuff throwback: 
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Oct 5, 2016 09:44
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It was five minutes after the VP debates ended that I realized Pence had no real interest in being a part of Trump's campaign. He's literally running a completely different and contradictory platform. Then I realized it's because this whole election was his intro to the public for his inevitable run in 2020. Hell, I bet he even knows/counts on Trump losing (just not by too much). With Cruz stained, Pence is the most dangerous slime mold for the next election.
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Oct 5, 2016 12:17
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Kasich is only on this list because he ran a shoestring campaign to the bitter end. There is nothing remarkable about him except being the "sane" one at the end of a highly visible Donald Trump primary. It will be interesting to see what lessons candidates take from this and if we see more quixotic, desperate campaigns that refuse to bow out.
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Oct 5, 2016 12:39
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nachos posted:Kasich is only on this list because he ran a shoestring campaign to the bitter end. There is nothing remarkable about him except being the "sane" one at the end of a highly visible Donald Trump primary. It will be interesting to see what lessons candidates take from this and if we see more quixotic, desperate campaigns that refuse to bow out. Honestly, I thought it was a sound play. He came away looking way better than he should, because he sucks.
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Oct 5, 2016 16:56
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It does seem that Pence is trying to position himself for the future. I just don't know how deluded he is to think it will work. My own guess is that after what looks like a Trump loss in a month, Trump is probably going to not go gracefully, and the stigma isn't going to fade, it is going to get worse. Basically, how is Pence going to recover from having his name attached to something so ridiculous? He probably thinks he can, because he probably thinks there is a great reservoir of Heartland Americans, and they just need the right candidate. But he is going to be continuing the uphill demographic battle of the Republican Party, forever remembered as the guy who bowed down to a senile man.
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Oct 7, 2016 15:01
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glowing-fish posted:It does seem that Pence is trying to position himself for the future. I just don't know how deluded he is to think it will work. I wrote this before the "grab them in the pussy" tape aired. I don't think that Pence will be able to brand himself as "Sane Grandpa" once he is remembered as the water carrier for "Grab Them in the Pussy"
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Oct 8, 2016 00:54
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It's hard to know who will survive the post election bloodbath because it is far from clear who will take control of the party after Trump. The idea that the GOP can just carry on as though nothing has changed is implausible. Trump revealed too many fault lines within the Republican party. If rumours about Trump planning a post election conservative news network pan out then Trump could continue to make life very difficult for the Jeb!s and Kasich and Prices within the party.
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Oct 8, 2016 01:55
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I could see some having a political career and some having a TV career, but after this? I don't see it happening without their endorsements of him following them around like a brand or scarlet letter.
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Oct 8, 2016 03:52
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Ralph Reed posted:I think it will have little or no impact. People of faith are voting on issues like who will protect unborn life, defend religious freedom, grow the economy, appoint conservative judges and oppose the Iran nuclear deal, said Ralph Reed, the founder and chairman of the Faith & Freedom Coalition and a Trump supporter. In their hierarchy of concerns, an eleven-year-old tape of a private conversation with a talk show host on a tour bus ranks very low. I would say count Ralph Reed and all the other cynical "Christian Conservatives" out. Not because they were hypocrites, but because they backed a loser and got nothing out of it.
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Oct 8, 2016 04:01
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oh my god this can't be right
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Oct 8, 2016 04:02
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I think "can this candidate win a general election" is the wrong question to ask. I think the more immediate question (relatively speaking) is which candidate can gain the support of a plurality of the post-Trump Republican coalition.glowing-fish posted:I would say count Ralph Reed and all the other cynical "Christian Conservatives" out. Not because they were hypocrites, but because they backed a loser and got nothing out of it. He's probably right. A lot of them will justify it as "Donald Trump may be a sinner but at least he'll stop all the baby killing." Pomplamoose has issued a correction as of 04:10 on Oct 8, 2016 |
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Oct 8, 2016 04:07
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Mike Pence probably thought he was being real smart using the Trump ticket to get his name out there while distancing himself from Trump at every opportunity. Now he's forever branded as the "VP candidate of the 'grab em by the pussy' guy." I'm not sure Chris Christie will even be able to show his face public, let alone run for political office.
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Oct 8, 2016 17:13
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A lot of you are assuming that if Trump losses badly then the establishment GOP will easily retake control of the party and steer it back o to its previous course. I'm not so sure about that. The GOP base has been in semi-ipen revolt since at least 06 when they turned on Bush's immigration plan. There's an entire cohort of desperate blue collar whites who might not be able to deliver a national victory but who can at least sustain the existence of a Trump inspired white-nationalist-anti-globalizaton rump party. The big donors can always flee into the waiting arms of the Democrats.
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Oct 8, 2016 18:11
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Blind Pineapple posted:Mike Pence probably thought he was being real smart using the Trump ticket to get his name out there while distancing himself from Trump at every opportunity. Now he's forever branded as the "VP candidate of the 'grab em by the pussy' guy." I'm not sure that Chris Christie can keep out of prison, at this point.
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Oct 8, 2016 20:56
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Helsing posted:A lot of you are assuming that if Trump losses badly then the establishment GOP will easily retake control of the party and steer it back o to its previous course. I'm not so sure about that. The GOP base has been in semi-ipen revolt since at least 06 when they turned on Bush's immigration plan. This. The GOP has tried after every presidential election since 2008 to move towards the center and turn themselves into a Libertarian-esque party, and soften on things like immigration and social issues to pick up the growing numbers of hispanic voters. And every loving time, the talk radio hosts like Hannity, Limbaugh and the TONS of local radio guys throw a fit about it being "amnesty" or w/e and the base threatens to revolt and so any attempt at moving to the center gets squashed. The fact is, the establishment GOP is effetely toothless at this point, and the real people running the right are people like Sean Hannity, Rush Limbaugh, and Matt Drudge.
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Oct 8, 2016 21:13
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glowing-fish posted:I'm not sure that Chris Christie can keep out of prison, at this point. The OP needs to be updated to move Christie into the "lol, career" category after his term as governor ends. If he can open up a one room law office in New Jersey doing DUI and divorce cases, I think he would consider himself lucky. Cruz will be able to keep his senate seat as long he wants, but he has made every wrong decision during this presidential election and I think he's reached his ceiling. He perfectly set himself up as the "i told you so" candidate at the convention until he decided to endorse Trump literally days before pussygate broke. And on top of that the northeast will never forget about "New York Values", so that's about 400 delegates lost right there. Kasich will the the 2020 contender to watch, but, full disclosure, I said that about Scott Walker and boy was I wrong. Haley also has a good chance.
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Oct 11, 2016 21:42
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Christie can do appearances on the Trump news network, and Kasich isn't going to do any better in the next primary than he did in this one. The dream of a libertarian GOP that caters exclusively to big donors while using culture war issues to keep blue collar whites on side is dead. It has been dead for a long time but it took Trump to reveal the extent of the rot just below the surface.
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Oct 11, 2016 21:53
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https://twitter.com/ThePlumLineGS/status/785837172922388480 Not many inshallah
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Oct 11, 2016 22:01
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The Nastier Nate posted:The OP needs to be updated to move Christie into the "lol, career" category after his term as governor ends. I need to update my OP. Like reading it, I am amazed at what an innocent, simple world we lived in back in May of 2016. Of course, I will probably need to update it now and then realllllly update it after election night.
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Oct 12, 2016 04:54
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