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Lightning Knight posted:I know and it's loving poo poo. I am hoping for a Randy Bryce and Tammy Baldwin win next year but I'm not gonna hold my breath. I love Tammy, but in a #MeToo world she's suboptimal. We don't want another Franken.
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Jan 3, 2018 09:13
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CassandraSupreme posted:I love Tammy, but in a #MeToo world she's suboptimal. We don't want another Franken. What? I don't understand.
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Jan 3, 2018 09:49
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CassandraSupreme posted:I love Tammy, but in a #MeToo world she's suboptimal. We don't want another Franken. who did tammy sexually assault
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Jan 3, 2018 09:50
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OAquinas posted:run everywhere, take nothing for granted. So who's going to beat Romney in Utah and turn it purple?
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Jan 3, 2018 13:50
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Absurd Alhazred posted:So who's going to beat Romney in Utah and turn it purple? Run everywhere and win everywhere are not the same things.
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Jan 3, 2018 14:54
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OAquinas posted:There's a difference between "not visiting" and "not expending resources." They cut off that whole section of the country in an insane game of chicken because they were so certain of victory. Hillary has her pros and cons, but the senior campaign staff she hired for both of her runs are a bunch of self-assured Dunning–Kruger incompetents. So again, how does your national/regional explanation (a graciously nonrelitigating "they were so goddamn bad") explain Hillary well outrunning Obama in the metro while lagging well behind outstate? Edit: This is not to say that a take is more correct because the person making it was local, nor is it to say that national factors and trends shouldn't be given weight. But it's a recognition that Minnesota is neither Michigan nor Wisconsin, as Detroit Lakes is not Delano is not Duluth. Local factors can complicate regardless of statewide or national trends. Disregarding them leads to poo poo like the Coakley campaign. OAquinas posted:Also: run everywhere, take nothing for granted.  Absurd Alhazred posted:So who's going to beat Romney in Utah and turn it purple? Paracaidas fucked around with this message at 15:59 on Jan 3, 2018 |
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Jan 3, 2018 15:39
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You run everywhere because even if you don't win, a competent campaign can end up strengthening your local permanent institutions by engaging and mobilizing supporters and building a better political apparatus based on that support, which means you'll have a better shot next time.
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Jan 3, 2018 15:58
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Paracaidas posted:Edit: This is not to say that a take is more correct because the person making it was local, nor is it to say that national factors and trends shouldn't be given weight. But it's a recognition that Minnesota is neither Michigan nor Wisconsin, as Detroit Lakes is not Delano is not Duluth. Local factors can complicate regardless of statewide or national trends. Disregarding them leads to poo poo like the Coakley campaign. Excellent point. Look at VA. The Dems didn't win in all of the districts that were most favorable to the Dems by PVI, they won a number of places where local issues really mattered. Like in the district where a man who's girlfriend was murdered on live TV ran on gun control in a very red district and won. Or the woman who ran on solving local traffic issues in a very GOP district. Sometimes you will get "surprise" wins where your candidate just has a better pulse of the local sentiment. It's why you run everywhere not just "run where the PVI is less than GOP+10". You'll also get wins like this because the electorate is not uniform and you'd expect to win (and lose) a few outlier races. If the overall margin in a state is D+8 you'll lose some races where the district PVI was previously R+6 and win some where the district PVI was R+10.
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Jan 3, 2018 16:06
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Paracaidas posted:Dead Girls and Live Boys are everywhere, my friend. But what about sexy ghosts?
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Jan 3, 2018 16:08
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While the Democrats are running a historically insane number of candidates, Republicans are having such difficulty that they can't find a candidate for a current Republican seat and are planning on writing it off:quote:Keeping Ros-Lehtinen's seat was always going to be a challenge for Republicans after the longtime Miami congresswoman announced her retirement in May. Republicans couldn't draw top-tier recruits, such as Florida Lt. Gov. Carlos Lopez-Cantera; one announced candidate made national news for claiming to have boarded a spaceship with aliens; fundraising has lagged; and one of the top GOP candidates recently left the race. https://www.rawstory.com/2018/01/go...r=1737131x84899
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Jan 3, 2018 16:25
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CassandraSupreme posted:I love Tammy, but in a #MeToo world she's suboptimal. We don't want another Franken. I also don't understand this
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Jan 3, 2018 16:58
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evilweasel posted:While the Democrats are running a historically insane number of candidates, Republicans are having such difficulty that they can't find a candidate for a current Republican seat and are planning on writing it off:  That is totally insane. When's the last time a party straight up wrote off a seat they currently hold? It was probably the Dems in 2010 wasn't it?
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Jan 3, 2018 17:00
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Aves Maria! posted:who did tammy sexually assault I always heard rumors of her trolling UW for trim. If it happened and wasn't just a homophobic rumor, then even if consensual it's a bad look. Cause otherwise she is amazing.
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Jan 3, 2018 17:54
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Another big advantage that the Dems have is their huge disparity in money donated. It's arguable how much that matters for a national race but for local races it's critical. I believe the RNC itself is raising a good deal more than the DNC but the Democratic candidates themselves are drowning their Republican counterparts.
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Jan 3, 2018 17:54
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achillesforever6 posted:Pitt DSA isn't going to endorse him, mainly because he was a jagoff to our chapter during our meeting where we had a bunch of candidates state their case and answer questions. Also because he publicly endorsed the Costa over the DSA member running against him. Also because he is not nearly as progressive as he says he is (his track record in Braddock isn't that good, plus there is poo poo where he citizen's arrested a jogger with a shotgun). And finally our chapter was going in to this not really wanting to get involved in canvassing for a state wide campaign. Oh and he has a massive ego since during the time he would hog the mic and ignore our time constraints talk about the revolution he started before Bernie got popular. Well, poo poo. That's what I get for not investigating, too deeply. I do hope the 2 DSA'ers get on the ballot. I'm pretty sure that Gainey's going to stay on in my district. By the by, what is the Pitt DSA like? Is the much cross-pollination/cooperation with the Allegheny Dems?
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Jan 3, 2018 20:23
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CassandraSupreme posted:I always heard rumors of her trolling UW for trim. I don't know what this means. She was looking for lesbians to have sex with on the University of Wisconsin campus? I mean, this just screams "made up by Breitbart", so unless I see a reputable source or two on it I'm gonna have to call it bullshit.
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Jan 3, 2018 20:28
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CassandraSupreme posted:I always heard rumors of her trolling UW for trim. If it happened and wasn't just a homophobic rumor, then even if consensual it's a bad look. Until a victim comes forward I don’t think we can reasonably assume this to be true.
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Jan 3, 2018 20:35
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Paracaidas posted:Dead Girls and Live Boys are everywhere, my friend. Mitt Romney is a centrist-right robot who has run for president twice and held high level office for many years. Unless he's suddenly developed a taste for the impure, the man is about as clean a sane politician as this country will ever see again.
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Jan 3, 2018 20:46
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Lightning Knight posted:Until a victim comes forward I don’t think we can reasonably assume this to be true. The impression I get is that with a lot of these scandals people in the know knew about it already, just not with sources that would allow publication. So if there are rumors of something that would be something to factor into your decision making: there are lots of good candidates, and it is vitally important that there not be a hidden scandal that would make a Trump re-election more likely. That said, i have no idea what the gently caress he's even saying there are rumors of. Niton posted:Mitt Romney is a centrist-right robot who has run for president twice and held high level office for many years. Unless he's suddenly developed a taste for the impure, the man is about as clean a sane politician as this country will ever see again. Romney's vices are RAM upgrades and flip-flopping but I would be utterly and completely shocked if there was anything more interesting than that. evilweasel fucked around with this message at 21:08 on Jan 3, 2018 |
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Jan 3, 2018 20:59
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axeil posted:
Assume so, there had to have been long-held seats from before the realignment that hadn't quite flipped and everyone knew were only holdable by the current incumbent. Can't think of any other cases.
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Jan 3, 2018 21:06
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evilweasel posted:The impression I get is that with a lot of these scandals people in the know knew about it already, just not with sources that would allow publication. So if there are rumors of something that would be something to factor into your decision making: there are lots of good candidates, and it is vitally important that there not be a hidden scandal that would make a Trump re-election more likely. His implication was that she is sleeping with college students. And yes, there usually are rumors, and the campaign team can deal with that, but I don’t think we on this website can take them seriously without some kind of actual source. Right now we have “some poster heard some stuff” which is functionally nothing.
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Jan 3, 2018 21:15
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Lightning Knight posted:His implication was that she is sleeping with college students. The issue isn't so much "can the campaign staff deal with it" as "are they true". I am not worried about a candidate being sunk by rumors alone. I would be worried about a candidate being sunk by rumors getting to a reporter who finds out they're true and that reporting sinking the candidate. I completely agree with "random internet poster says he heard a rumor" is not exactly much of anything. But I disagree with the idea if such a rumor is actually floating around among circles where it would be more credible must assume it's not true: if I thought there was even a 10% chance a damaging rumor was true that would be enough for me to support a different candidate in a wide-open primary like 2020 will be. That said, I don't get the feeling that sort of rumor would be all that damaging. It's not a super great look but college students are adults and although it shouldn't matter, I get the feeling that a lesbian going after college women would get less of an ick factor than a man of the same age doing the same thing.
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Jan 3, 2018 21:24
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Lightning Knight posted:His implication was that she is sleeping with college students.
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Jan 3, 2018 21:44
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So barring any last second court action ~*The Coin Flip*~ that determines control of the VA House of Delegates is tomorrow. That'll be fun.
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Jan 3, 2018 22:06
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theflyingorc posted:this is not a crime Right now it’s barely an internet rumor so I don’t think it’s even worth the bother honestly.
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Jan 3, 2018 22:09
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axeil posted:So barring any last second court action ~*The Coin Flip*~ that determines control of the VA House of Delegates is tomorrow. In the event of the coin landing on its side, Jeb! will be elected.
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Jan 3, 2018 22:23
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axeil posted:So barring any last second court action ~*The Coin Flip*~ that determines control of the VA House of Delegates is tomorrow. What if it hits a desk? Does someone have to call no interference?
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Jan 3, 2018 22:28
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They'll actually put both candidates' names in film canisters, and those canisters in a bowl, and draw both of them out, one by one. Whichever one gets called first wins. They pull both so they can show it was a fair set up. Virginia election law is slightly confusing on the matter, but there probably cannot be another recount after this. However, expect whichever candidate loses to try and sue for one anyway. The setup and drawing will be done by Virginia's Board of Elections, which was appointed by Democratic governor Terry McAuliffe. If you hate yourself, you can live stream it.
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Jan 3, 2018 22:31
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Quorum posted:They'll actually put both candidates' names in film canisters, and those canisters in a bowl, and draw both of them out, one by one. Whichever one gets called first wins. They pull both so they can show it was a fair set up. Hating myself is what I do best, unfortunately I’ll be working
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Jan 4, 2018 01:04
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I'm not a very nothing matters poster but in my heart I know that the wrong canister will be picked
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Jan 4, 2018 01:06
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Spiffster posted:Hating myself is what I do best, unfortunately I’ll be working Congratulations; the local PBS/NPR affiliate has you covered here via Facebook Live, apparently. Meeting starts at 11.
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Jan 4, 2018 01:08
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Quorum posted:Congratulations; the local PBS/NPR affiliate has you covered here via Facebook Live, apparently. Meeting starts at 11. Well my lunch starts at 11 but if they take their sweet time I might miss it and get the biggest set of political blue balls. Hells yeah im in for that 
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Jan 4, 2018 01:10
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BirdOfPlay posted:Well, poo poo. That's what I get for not investigating, too deeply.
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Jan 4, 2018 03:45
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achillesforever6 posted:Not really, I mean we accept if you vote dem, but if you are candidate looking to get an endorsement you shouldn't say "I agree everything except the part of destroying capitalism" and definitely not get mad at the audience when they grill you on this in the Q&A section. What if I like capitalism because its the best way to generate tax money to fund a strong social safety net, assuming we actually loving taxed the people making all the loving money.
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Jan 4, 2018 03:48
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Alter Ego posted:I don't know what this means. She was looking for lesbians to have sex with on the University of Wisconsin campus? I mean, this just screams "made up by Breitbart", so unless I see a reputable source or two on it I'm gonna have to call it bullshit. I mean, I was on campus and knew co-op girls who claimed this (and a lot more people who claimed to know people). But "hooking up with Tammy" is the sort of toxic masculinity I'd (retroactively) expect from 19 year old bravado. Especially since young lesbians, especially from small town USA, can conflate "butchness" with "super toxic masculinity" since that is what has been modeled for them and is therefore the lens through which they (naively) view gender and gender roles at that point in their lives. Basically: a big part of me thinks they made it up to look cool but a small part of me screams, "Isn't that rape-culture.txt?" Not to victim-blame a theoretical perp, but maybe that's why she's not seeking higher office that could expose her to that? This was decades ago, but if she was making those mistakes (even only a few times that get expanded through whisper networks) I could see keeping it cool.
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Jan 4, 2018 04:34
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IN dem primary stuff: I haven't seen any legit competitors for Donnelly in the primary, and I guess he's pretty alright for an IN dem, but how serious is his race? I know he was on the shortlist of nearly sure flips for Rs a few months ago, but is that still the case after everything we've seen in VA and AL? His fundraising emails would have me believe otherwise, and I am probably going to sign up to help, but I have a hard time getting excited about him. Some other IN goon help me out. House stuff: I'm voting in IN-02, and we've got a pretty interesting selection of D challengers to the now obviously lovely R candidate (Walorski): a nominally catholic (Notre Dame and Saint Mary's ties) white lesbian lawyer/professor (Pat Hackett), an Indian local business owner (Yatish Joshi), and of course a white male former health care exec (Mel Hall). Identifiers are strictly for the consumption of this thread, but at this point I feel like Hackett is the candidate to back due to a well constructed message that aligns perfectly with South Bend's extremely popular mayor Pete Buttigieg (of potential DNC chair fame). Elite cred doesn't count for a lot in a lot of midwestern communities, but ND ties do in South Bend, so I feel like she's got a solid shot. Her campaign headquarters opening is in a few weeks and I intend to go to the open house party - I'll report back with thoughts in case anyone cares.
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Jan 4, 2018 05:40
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Quorum posted:They'll actually put both candidates' names in film canisters, and those canisters in a bowl, and draw both of them out, one by one. Whichever one gets called first wins. They pull both so they can show it was a fair set up.
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Jan 4, 2018 05:42
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aparmenideanmonad posted:IN dem primary stuff: He is considered one of the most vulnerable senators, but given the current political enviroment I don't think that anyone will be written off unless they're down like 20 a week before the election. Here's why you get excited: if he can keep his seat the chances that Democrats retake the Senate and Trump can't get another nutter confirmed to a court, can't get another nutter put in charge of an enviromental agency, and the like. Taking back the House stops new legislation. Taking back the Senate means the Supreme Court isn't lost for a generation and the Supreme Court goes hard, hard, hard right if RBG dies or Kennedy calls it quits.
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Jan 4, 2018 05:51
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evilweasel posted:He is considered one of the most vulnerable senators, but given the current political enviroment I don't think that anyone will be written off unless they're down like 20 a week before the election. Here's why you get excited: if he can keep his seat the chances that Democrats retake the Senate and Trump can't get another nutter confirmed to a court, can't get another nutter put in charge of an enviromental agency, and the like. Taking back the House stops new legislation. Taking back the Senate means the Supreme Court isn't lost for a generation and the Supreme Court goes hard, hard, hard right if RBG dies or Kennedy calls it quits. Yeah my takeaway from lurking a number of SA threads and listening to news has been that he's only going to win if the blue wave actually happens, but my personal take is that IN is a fairly give-no-fucks state when it comes to the normal curve of the rest of the country. My problem at this point is how to divide my efforts and my encouragement of others' efforts regarding the house and senate campaigns. I'm legit excited for the D challengers for the house but I guess I ought to summon up my strongest utilitarian instincts and get out the vote for Joe.
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Jan 4, 2018 06:03
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aparmenideanmonad posted:how serious is his race? I know he was on the shortlist of nearly sure flips for Rs a few months ago, but is that still the case after everything we've seen in VA and AL? Especially after VA/AL, anyone who tells you they know what's going to happen in 2018 is a drat liar. Last I've seen polling was October, where neither of his challengers topped 40% in name recognition (Joe was a hair under 70%). I think his odds are better now than what I would have thought at this time in 2016, but eh? e: Left the window open! In light of the above, anything is good! Volunteering for house and local candidates can be really effective too and VA appears to show it can have a bit of a reverse coattails (lapel? grassroots?) effect as well, if the people you're getting out for Inspiring House Candidate and Progressive Dog Catcher fill out the top of their ballots. aparmenideanmonad posted:House stuff: I'm voting in IN-02, and we've got a pretty interesting selection of D challengers to the now obviously lovely R candidate (Walorski): a nominally catholic (Notre Dame and Saint Mary's ties) white lesbian lawyer/professor (Pat Hackett), an Indian local business owner (Yatish Joshi), and of course a white male former health care exec (Mel Hall). Identifiers are strictly for the consumption of this thread, but at this point I feel like Hackett is the candidate to back due to a well constructed message that aligns perfectly with South Bend's extremely popular mayor Pete Buttigieg (of potential DNC chair fame). Elite cred doesn't count for a lot in a lot of midwestern communities, but ND ties do in South Bend, so I feel like she's got a solid shot. Her campaign headquarters opening is in a few weeks and I intend to go to the open house party - I'll report back with thoughts in case anyone cares.  , because content is good and keeps the eternal slapfight at bay. But mostly because I love local perspectives.
Paracaidas fucked around with this message at 06:39 on Jan 4, 2018 |
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Jan 4, 2018 06:35
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