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Kraftwerk posted:The US is bound by treaty to guarantee Taiwan's independence. China had no such agreements with Iraq. The first thing that will happen should China engage in an aggressive action against Taiwan is that the Taiwanese president will invoke that treaty in a call with a US envoy where they would request military assistance in accordance with that treaty. Should we ignore it and leave them to their fates? OctaMurk posted:If China had actually credibly threatened to go to war to guarantee Iraq's independence, do you think we would have still invaded Iraq? Its all dumb hypotheticals but the point is that deterrent is probably a useful tool to prevent wars. Ok so that's a yes you think it would be good for China to threaten world war 3 every time the US swings its dick around. Would you think that though, it sounds like you'd be paranoid as hell if China actually threatened war against us constantly VitalSigns fucked around with this message at 06:22 on Apr 20, 2021 |
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Apr 20, 2021 06:19
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Raenir Salazar posted:No one is saying "declare war on China if they invade Taiwan", LibCrusher posted:Anybody calling for war with China is calling for an end to industrial civilization. So this was what you were responding to initially. If you are not calling for a shooting war I'm not sure why you are so adamant in defending a war with China. You can't really Iraq another superpower
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Apr 20, 2021 06:24
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VitalSigns posted:China could have signed a mutual defense treaty with Iraq to attempt to deter american aggression if they thought it was a good idea, do you think turning the Iraq War into World War 3 would have been a good thing or a bad thing. Signing NATO certainly did a good job of stopping the Warsaw pact. Though we had an uncomfortably razor close call a few times in the process. It's one thing to backdoor a mutual defense pact when you know an invasion is coming. This treaty has been in place since the 1950s at least and strictly indicates that Taiwan can't engage in any militarily provocative actions. China has to unilaterally decide to attack Taiwan and if it does it upsets the agreed upon status quo and requires the US to intervene. I believe that the only reason Taiwan remains an independent country today is because of that treaty. Had it not existed, it's likely the PRC would have already integrated Taiwan long before they pulled their little stunt in Hong Kong. As mentioned, going to war with China is a stupid thing. But if China shoots first and invades Taiwan that's a red line against a treaty that's been in place for 50+ years.
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Apr 20, 2021 06:25
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I think the simplest solution would be to assign each country its own giant robot themed after their individual cultural stereotypes. Make those robots fight in a battle royale and the winner gets to rule earth.
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Apr 20, 2021 06:26
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the_steve posted:I think the simplest solution would be to assign each country its own giant robot themed after their individual cultural stereotypes. Make those robots fight in a battle royale and the winner gets to rule earth. At last the synthesis between anime analogies anf foreign policy.
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Apr 20, 2021 06:28
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Kraftwerk posted:Signing NATO certainly did a good job of stopping the Warsaw pact. Though we had an uncomfortably razor close call a few times in the process. Did it though, the Soviets never had any plans to roll tanks through the Fulda Gap, that ended up being Dr Strangelove fantasy warmongering to justify bigger military budgets. And deterrence and Madman Theory certainly didn't work in say Vietnam.
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Apr 20, 2021 06:29
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HonorableTB posted:I don't recognize that because I don't know anything about why it would be bad. Can you drop some sources or something so we can learn why invading Taiwan is a turbo hosed idea? Do you mean militarily for China or for the people being occupied? I think for the occupation you just need to look at the Soviet occupation of Eastern Poland for an equivalent example as to what will happen: Mass arrests, executions, relocation of essential industries, and deportations. And then look at the destruction that occurred when the US invaded Iraq for an approximate estimate of the material destruction a modern nation can inflict on a weaker one. As for why it may be bad for China, this is trickier, there's a lot of reason to believe China still lacks the sealift capacity, necessary quality and training in their airforce, logistics, and so on for their airforce and navy to secure an amphibious invasion of Taiwan (although they have been steaming full speed ahead on expanding that capacity, example), plus there's questions about the moral and discipline of their armed forces due to corruption, lack of funds, nepotism, and so on; despite a herculean amount of effort into professionalizing the PLA to fight "modern war under high tech conditions". However China's naval capacity to blockade Taiwan is considerable, their long range missiles are a considerable capability, and their airforce is constantly improving with their engine lifetime before a total rebuild has been slowly catching up bit by bit. Around 2000 there's good reason to believe it would fail, in 2021 the odds are better for them. Sedisp posted:So this was what you were responding to initially. If you are not calling for a shooting war I'm not sure why you are so adamant in defending a war with China. The context of what LibCrusher was responding to makes it clear that "calling for war with China" is synonymous with "defending Taiwan in its hour of need" / "pledging to defend Taiwan should China attack Taiwan". Raenir Salazar fucked around with this message at 06:33 on Apr 20, 2021 |
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Apr 20, 2021 06:30
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VitalSigns posted:Did it though, the Soviets never had any plans to roll tanks through the Fulda Gap, that ended up being Dr Strangelove fantasy warmongering to justify bigger military budgets. Big dicking around with NATO and increasing the stakes absolutely hosed over the USSR, because they felt bound to try to keep up and they were not materially equipped to do so. It made some of their issues with mismanagement infinitely worse and absolutely sped up or potentially even caused their eventually dissolution. Had they been able to largely ignore the US and focus on concerns at home they would have probably not gone to poo poo as fast, or potentially at all.
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Apr 20, 2021 06:32
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Mulva posted:Big dicking around with NATO and increasing the stakes absolutely hosed over the USSR, because they felt bound to try to keep up and they were not materially equipped to do so. It made some of their issues with mismanagement infinitely worse and absolutely sped up or potentially even caused their eventually dissolution. Had they been able to largely ignore the US and focus on concerns at home they would have probably not gone to poo poo as fast, or potentially at all. This is different than insisting NATO prevented Warsaw Pact aggression and staved off world war 3 though Also kind of weird that the op was saying NATO was a defensive response to Warsaw Pact aggression when NATO predated the Warsaw Pact
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Apr 20, 2021 06:37
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VitalSigns posted:Did it though, the Soviets never had any plans to roll tanks through the Fulda Gap, that ended up being Dr Strangelove fantasy warmongering to justify bigger military budgets. The US staged the Gulf of Tonkin incident to get directly involved in Vietnam in an effort to "contain" communism. But the entire thing was the result of paranoid delusions considering that Ho Chi Minh was more of a Vietnamese nationalist trying to make Vietnam independent than he was a communist. The communism was just a cover to get soviet material assistance since the US was going to help France reassert colonial control or supplant them with a corrupt client state. I think America's relationship with Nationalist China and Taiwan by extension was an important factor in why Taiwan was able to stay independent. But lets not forget that Chiang Kai Shek and his family had undisputed control over Taiwan's government for decades after the civil war ended. They had every intention to continue the war from Taiwan and attempt to retake the mainland with US assistance if the US allowed it (which they didnt) and if there was ever a chance China would've invaded Taiwan it probably would've done so while Chiang was still alive and the Chinese were shooting artillery over the strait on a regular basis. There haven't been many shots fired between the two sides for years now. Taiwan just wants to be independent and the US is happy to maintain that status quo. I don't think China would ever risk that war unless their own nationalists threaten national stability over the Taiwan question.
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Apr 20, 2021 06:38
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Raenir Salazar posted:
Your immediate reaction was asking what should be done if China invaded the US so I don't know how you're viewing it as not a war.
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Apr 20, 2021 06:40
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GreyjoyBastard posted:please shitpost less, people 
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Apr 20, 2021 06:48
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Kraftwerk posted:Vietnam was a sort of proxy war where the Soviets never really got officially involved beyond material support. The OG war in Afghanistan would be a similar example in the inverse. I'm sure there were Soviet personnel flying migs over Vietnam or manning some of the SAM sites, but not in any capacity that would've made the cold war hot. Right i meant that none of the Madman Theory stuff deterred Ho Chi Minh. He invaded the US' client state anyway. What 'deterred' the Soviets from a hot war was probably more that there was no vital national insterest at stake in Vietnam worth nuclear armageddon. If the US had invaded East Germany the Soviets might have reacted differently. So it's weird that you're saying we should do essentially the opposite of what the Soviets did: if China invaded a US client state that isn't a real US national interest of any importance, we should start World War 3 over it and kill millions of people because (???) A 50 year old piece of paper we signed with a military dictatorship we happened to like at the time (????)
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Apr 20, 2021 06:50
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VitalSigns posted:This is different than insisting NATO prevented Warsaw Pact aggression and staved off world war 3 though Stalin hosed over the Polish by ignoring the Warsaw uprising and persecuting any polish nationalists who wanted to restore their country after the Nazis were kicked out. The Warsaw pact may not have formally existed in any capacity, but it was clear Stalin expanded his territories and put them under the control of client states loyal to the Soviet Union after the war ended. NATO was formed to keep that in check and ensure the Soviet influence didn't spread further. I don't think the Russians ever seriously entertained sending tanks across the Fulda gap but I'm sure they would have eventually sponsored communist revolutions in Western European countries that they'd then "liberate" with the red army support until all of Europe was under soviet influence. Now I know most of us here are opposed to global capitalism, but there's little good about life in the Warsaw pact either. There were still bullet holes in buildings dating back to WW2 when the Berlin Wall fell. The Soviets didn't give a gently caress. At least the Marshall Plan and the way Japan was governed between the 1950s and 1980s helped post WW2 countries under western influence prosper. I think the US should do their own version of China's belt and road initiative to compete, a Marshall Plan 2.0 to strengthen global trading blocs and diversify away from China. Would be a nicer project than more wars and might be a better use of public funds right now. I don't want another cold war. I just don't think China should be able to do whatever it wants with countries in the pacific. I don't think the US should be launching political coups in Latin America either. But just because the US has hosed over Venezuela, Chile and Panama in the past doesn't mean it's a bad thing if they help Taiwan maintain its independence from China.
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Apr 20, 2021 06:52
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Proficient Scoundrel posted:will be happily shocked with anything other than "not guilty" or mistrial. If there is a not guilty, holy poo poo. People thought the LA riots were bad
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Apr 20, 2021 06:54
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Sedisp posted:Your immediate reaction was asking what should be done if China invaded the US so I don't know how you're viewing it as not a war. Because naturally when someone makes a claim with a clear reasoning the natural next step is to point out scenarios where their reasoning breaks down in order to demonstrate the shallowness of their thinking (particularly when its as blatant and obvious in this case); this is generally a fairly common form of thought experiment. It is not meant to suppose that China would seriously in the immediate decide to invade the continental US, but only to point out that the argument of "the US shouldn't oppose China annexing its neighbours because the war may be more destructive than the war it's trying to stop" is to point out how, when looked at axiomatically, there's no bottom to that line of thinking. It's like taking the absolutely wrong conclusion from the prisoner's dilemma. There is no point where one can reasonably draw a line that says "Okay, the amount of destruction by acting now at this point can be calculated to be less than the destruction letting them continue would cause"; there is never going to be a point where that is going to be true; and is the ultimate flaw of absolutist utilitarian thinking. This is why the principles of self-determination, the right to self-defence, and the right to collective security ultimately trump dispassionate arbitrary utilitarian calculations.
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Apr 20, 2021 06:55
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VitalSigns posted:Right i meant that none of the Madman Theory stuff deterred Ho Chi Minh. He invaded the US' client state anyway. I think we should help democratic countries stay independent of authoritarian ones that violate human rights. I guess the big question is, what's Taiwan worth to you? What's TSMC worth to you? I'm sure there's smarter people than either of us who are running the numbers and deciding if the US should intervene or not so I'll leave it up to them. I'm too tired to think about it. But I think that if Taiwan falls, it'll be a domino effect as more and more countries get swallowed up into China's sphere of influence until they succeed where Japan failed and create a China friendly Greater East-Asia Coprosperity Sphere. I think we all lose if that happens, but I can't tell you if it's worth dying over. I don't think it'll ever come to war and if it does it'll likely happen in ways none of us can predict.
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Apr 20, 2021 07:00
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What in the world. Okay lets try this. If China invaded Taiwan what would you believe the US should do about it.
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Apr 20, 2021 07:02
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Sedisp posted:What in the world. Okay lets try this. If China invaded Taiwan what would you believe the US should do about it. The US should honour its commitments to defend Taiwan. As I have said multiple times.
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Apr 20, 2021 07:04
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SocketWrench posted:If there is a not guilty, holy poo poo. People thought the LA riots were bad I'll be curious as to what the sentence is if they do render the guilty verdict, if they'll try to reduce it down to a slap on the wrist somehow.
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Apr 20, 2021 07:04
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Raenir Salazar posted:The US should honour its commitments to defend Taiwan. As I have said multiple times. So go to war with China?
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Apr 20, 2021 07:09
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I love how superior you act while you lecture us on the importance of always letting empires exert dominion over their neighbours completely unchecked because the potential cost of that effort being resisted, or even threatening to resist it, is too high. It really lines up so well with the other stuff you advocate. You do know that historically the "just let them have it approach" has actually worked out really poorly for a lot of people as well, right? And it happens, and would happen in this case, for pretty much the same political reasons you dislike. Sedisp posted:There is definitely a point where you'd have to do it anyways but it's ludicrous to draw Taiwan as that line. Especially if we're using philosophy by way of pop culture as moral reasoning. This is still a good thing to consider though. Even if its right for Taiwan to be saved from being conquered by an outside power, it could still be true that from a geopolitical perspective its a bad move and the US government should not take any action to prevent. Even then its still probably worth threatening to take action up until the point where you back down, so long as you're sure you can back down. Which you can't always so... Sedisp posted:So go to war with China? Just to clarify we are on the same page here - you agree that there a great number of situations where the US going to war with China is absolutely the right move (no matter how lovely an option it is) and you just disagree on Taiwan being one of those situations, right?
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Apr 20, 2021 07:11
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Sedisp posted:So go to war with China? I think there are steps they can take beforehand, it isn't going to be going from 0 to War were declared. There will be diplomatic efforts first, along with trying to utilize international pressure from other countries and whatever else they can do that we don't know about because we aren't high ranking government officials.
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Apr 20, 2021 07:12
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Sedisp posted:So go to war with China? Yes, because China invaded a US ally, who is certainly calling for help, or has arranged for contingencies with the expectation the US comes to their aid in the event communications are cut off. the_steve posted:I think there are steps they can take beforehand, it isn't going to be going from 0 to War were declared. Lets be frank here, in all probability the first thing that happens is the USAF or USN sorties from Okinawa/Guam immediately to provide support and assistance and contests Chinese aircraft operating in Taiwanese airspace. Which is still the right thing to do, because needless delays would just cause more problems and reduce the chance that Taiwan could repel the invasion. Raenir Salazar fucked around with this message at 07:15 on Apr 20, 2021 |
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Apr 20, 2021 07:13
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Raenir Salazar posted:Yes, because China invaded a US ally, who is certainly calling for help, or has arranged for contingencies with the expectation the US comes to their aid in the event communications are cut off. Then why in the world did you say no ones calling for declaring war on China if they invade Taiwan because yes you literally are. You have been really insistent on minimizing the disaster that would be. And to be clear this isn't a statement that you are 100% wrong because it would be a disaster but if you're going to advocate for something you probably should be honest about the consequences. the_steve posted:I think there are steps they can take beforehand, it isn't going to be going from 0 to War were declared. I agree but Raenir has been really really insistent on Taiwan being their red line to the point where they've insisted its a moral requirement to go to war with them as they're iron born/anime villans/Nazghul Sedisp fucked around with this message at 07:27 on Apr 20, 2021 |
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Apr 20, 2021 07:22
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Crosby B. Alfred posted:3. Can't we finally automate any of this manufacturing or is it still decades away? poo poo's expensive and a long term investment. Contrary to popular belief lots of manufacturing is done by small subcontractors for larger companies. The shop i work at makes parts for Ford, GM, and Chrysler. We have to ship them to separate vendors that basically "launder" the parts off to the big 3 so that if anyone tries to find out where they were manufactured the trail ends at the vendor (because the big 3 get nuts when they find out their parts come from the same manufacturer as one of the others). But we're a rather small company and the millions it would take to automate even one press would break the company for a few years. Now i have seen video taken at another shop that outsources small orders (small meaning like 50k parts and under) to us and they are almost fully automated. Computers can find a die, load it into a press, load the steel and feed it, all that jazz and it's amazing to watch, but that's why they outsource jobs to us, they have to run huge jobs or else the machinery doesn't make them a profit when it runs small jobs that have to be changed over frequently.
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Apr 20, 2021 07:28
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Sedisp posted:Then why in the world did you say no ones calling for declaring war on China if they invade Taiwan because yes you literally are. You have been really insistent on minimizing the disaster that would be. I am going to assume for a moment, you are of course free to clarify your position; that "going to war", "declaring war", and "engaging in military action against" are all the same; and also that whether the US's war aims are to merely repel the invasion of Taiwan, or to occupy China is also something you haven't thought about. So recognizing that these things are interchangeable (that you make no distinction between "going to war" and "military action", etc; and don't care about what the actual war aims would be, that you're assuming perhaps not unreasonably that any shooting war can and will escalate) that it is really obvious and pertinent to point out that your framing of "going to war with" is glossing over the extremely important fact of Taiwan's sovereignty and territorial integrity and right to self-determination are being violating by an aggressive power. You are completely ignoring Taiwan, it's like they are of no importance, merely an inert football to be kicked back and forth and whoever kicks last is the warmonger in some weird game of geopolitical hot potato; that's not how anything works. So I am going to repeat myself, China invading a sovereign nation is war mongering, the US defending said nation from attack is in fact not being the war monger! Because the US is protecting a nation's right to self-determination; Taiwan isn't being used as an excuse to get into a war with China, it's recognizing the geopolitical fact that allowing it to happen would collapse the international world order as we know it, and not for the good of anyone. To bring this back around, you seem to be arguing that if Germany was the world's second largest economy and had nuclear weapons back in 1939 then the world should just stand aside and let them invade Poland and then (eventually) the USSR without answer because there might be more destruction from trying to stop them then in letting them continue their destructive actions unchecked. And no I am not minimizing the "disaster", there is no doubt that it would be incredibly destructive; I just do not believe (1) that it is a given that it would lead to the death of 7 billion people as you've apparently claimed. (2) That the likely amount of (likely significant) destruction means allowing aggression to go unchecked is the right call; because we know that it won't work, because appeasement has never worked.
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Apr 20, 2021 07:40
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There has to be another thread that is more appropriate for China-Taiwan-US war chat.
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Apr 20, 2021 07:41
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VitalSigns posted:It's weird to still see people arguing essentially Madman Theory, when Korea and Vietnam both pretty much discredited it. I don't feel like that's an entirely fair view of Korea. We never threatened to nuke Korea, or China, or anyone else over it. Yeah, MacArthur was chomping at the bit to drop one on the Chinese and he got tossed out for it. If anything Truman wanted to prevent a war out of fear that it would get China and Russia involved and we'd have another world war. Hell we were supposed to stop at the 38th but MacArthur decided since we're rolling them up we'll go to China and got the Chinese involved which pissed Truman off
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Apr 20, 2021 07:44
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SourKraut posted:There has to be another thread that is more appropriate for China-Taiwan-US war chat. There is in fact a A China thread where presumably some people more knowledgeable of Taiwan-US relations can chime in.
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Apr 20, 2021 07:46
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Raenir Salazar posted:I am going to assume for a moment, you are of course free to clarify your position; that "going to war", "declaring war", and "engaging in military action against" are all the same; and also that whether the US's war aims are to merely repel the invasion of Taiwan, or to occupy China is also something you haven't thought about. Yeah I'm done engaging with you GlyphGryph posted:Just to clarify we are on the same page here - you agree that there a great number of situations where the US going to war with China is absolutely the right move (no matter how lovely an option it is) and you just disagree on Taiwan being one of those situations, right? Exactly this. I don't think any war has ever been good but many are nessacary. Edit: Further I get very frustrated by people who don't consider that even something like WW2 which was the most nessacary of wars to have been fought has had a pretty vicious consequence of the allied powers getting to hand wave away their own flirtations with fascism. Sedisp fucked around with this message at 08:00 on Apr 20, 2021 |
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Apr 20, 2021 07:53
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Doomposting+Clancy Chat. Can we not?
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Apr 20, 2021 07:55
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Kraftwerk posted:Signing NATO certainly did a good job of stopping the Warsaw pact   
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Apr 20, 2021 08:42
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Jaxyon posted:I would recommend nobody in this thread reveal that they're a woman and also have opinions that get people mad because I've been posting in this thread or versions of it for years and there's a pretty special level of harassment that you get when you do. I really shouldn't have admitted that I was the Senior Senator from Arizona.
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Apr 20, 2021 11:55
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If you have lived through the last 20-30 years and think anything good can happen from deploying the US military to go do some war, you are loving delusional. "Helping" isn't the purpose of war machines. They are used to destroy things We don't live in a loving Marvel movie. It's not some hero vs villain showdown. It's like some dipshit infantile fantasy of shooting the gun out of a hostage taker's hand when the gun is pressed to the hostage's temple. You are just gonna blow away them both. Don't give me this "but we can't just LET them" poo poo because we let people here do worse to us every day and don't do poo poo. The health insurance industry has wrought far more American death than China could ever dream and yet it's the liberal consensus that there's nothing to be done because it's the system in place and the actors are too entrenched to merit a response with teeth Just pretend China is Aetna and Taiwan is an unemployed 30 year old with diabetes and go back to shrugging
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Apr 20, 2021 12:21
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Well, nihilism does have the virtue of having an answer for every problem.
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Apr 20, 2021 12:32
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Anybody worried about a hot war over Taiwan can probably rest easy. Bourgeois democracy is a solved problem for any force wealthy enough to harness the assets under democratic control, and as with other countries with massive wealth gaps, the class of people who actually need won over with material considerations is laughably small. Any takeover of Taiwan will take a form we are all depressingly familiar with As for the treaty, we will just ignore it if we consider doing so to be in our best interest. Ask Ukraine about how helpful the honor bound word of the US has been China isnt a shrinking economy or an empire on its back foot, it can take a leisurely approach if its goals are indeed to re-integrate Taiwan into the nation proper, especially since the chief weakness of its opponents in the matter is their inability to organize or act on long timelines or even with them in mind. Any act of war on par with treaty breaking will come from the US trying to swing its dick around if it comes from anything
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Apr 20, 2021 12:45
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Kraftwerk posted:1. China can't get the good stuff from TSMC anyway due to some US imposed regulations. There is a kernel of truth buried in this, but it's been embellished to the point of absurdity. The US's main manufacturing draw is the industrial engineering expertise. Highly-skilled or critical manufacturing processes are what the US does better than anyone else (except perhaps Germany). Certain low-skilled, high-volume manufacturing types categories have been outsourced to the point we have suffered serious loss of institutional knowledge, but generally it's the easier stuff. Even the US electronics industry is huge and quality-wise blows China out of the water. But what the US can't do is manufacture a billion iPhones for cheap. Gaupo Guacho posted:can't we move all this manufacturing to Vietnam, India or some South East Asian countries, even if it would be an immense undertaking? I feel like people fixated on a post-American world don't realize that there are dozens of significant economies in South Asia, South East Asia and East Asia who would strongly prefer American dominance and life under the American umbrella to Chinese regional hegemony This has already happened, China is still coasting on the huge simple manufacturing base it has built up, but it is rapidly being outsourced to India and SE Asia. China's wages have risen and it's industrial expertise has as well. You don't do to China for cheap simple labor anymore, you go to China for low-cost skilled labor (such as cheap electronics).
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Apr 20, 2021 13:02
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Epic High Five posted:As for the treaty, we will just ignore it if we consider doing so to be in our best interest. Ask Ukraine about how helpful the honor bound word of the US has been It is kind of amazing to me that people watched Crimea unfold and think a fifty year old treaty would ever factor into the mental calculus of the US deciding to go to war with China.
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Apr 20, 2021 13:15
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SocketWrench posted:If there is a not guilty, holy poo poo. People thought the LA riots were bad If this trial results in a not guilty, the only appropriate response is a nationwide general strike until the police are disarmed, defunded, every single one currently in uniform fired and new, much more stringent job interviews held to re-hire the few actual police among all these gang members. Of course, this will never happen, but it's absolutely 100% the appropriate response. This isn't just a grave danger to the people in one city. This lawlessness, the acceptance of cold-blooded slow murder by the police in public with video while a crowd begs for the man's life is as God-damned un-American as it is possible to be. BUT LET ME ASK YOU SOMETHING: WAS THE COUPON EXPIRED BECAUSE IF SO THAT'S BREAKING TE HLAW
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Apr 20, 2021 13:20
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