|
Mr. Toodles posted:American sports with particular emphasis on NHL, MLB and college hockey. Within my friendly poker game are guys that are way into NFL, some NHL (and horse racing) and a former NBA/Euro basketball pro who is, obviously, way into NBA and college basketball. Our group text is 75% them talking about bets and wins on those bets with next to no strategy discussion, as it seems like they intuitively understand each others bets and will occasionally recommend parlays across sports. I live in Colorado, so big fan of the Avalanche, University of Denver hockey, and the Colorado Rockies (who will always be terrible), but not such a fan that I am blinded to their faults or not willing to bet against them. NHL is an awesome one to get into as there is a lot of advanced metric sites for that. I would say the best site to get started with is http://www.moneypuck.com/ Everything presented well visually, lots of great data there etc. Another great site although you will need to support them via Patreon for most of their stuff is https://www.chartinghockey.ca/ Sean has a really good Twitter too: https://twitter.com/chartinghockey/ Twitter is full of some really good advanced metric peeps. Corey is another: https://twitter.com/ShutdownLine Another solid resource for the advanced metrics is http://www.naturalstattrick.com/ That should be enough to get started. Just note that hockey is one of the sports with the highest variance, and this season in particular is almost entering bizarro world territory with some of the results although hopefully it's starting to settle down now. The majority of the results the last few days i've been able to look at and go "yup that's the way it should be" with a few oddities. Scotsman fucked around with this message at 13:43 on Jan 28, 2021 |
#
?
Jan 28, 2021 13:41
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 8, 2024 08:53 |
|
|
Scotsman posted:A good one to get started with is: Thank you very much! Appreciate you offering up some ways for us to learn. No idea how to incorporate any of this yet, but I have some reading to do today!
|
|
#
?
Jan 28, 2021 14:25
|
|
|
Do you have any good resources for the lower English leagues, especially League 2?
|
|
#
?
Jan 28, 2021 21:41
|
|
|
Scotsman posted:NHL is an awesome one to get into as there is a lot of advanced metric sites for that. Amazing, thank you. Going to use this to chart out some games before I make bets. Do you watch all the games or just check results after the fact?
|
|
#
?
Jan 28, 2021 22:53
|
|
|
Scotsman posted:NHL is an awesome one to get into as there is a lot of advanced metric sites for that. Ok so moneypuck has the Canadien at 59% chance of winning tonight. 888 has the Canadien at -125 which is equivalent to 56% chance of winning. Assuming moneypuck is accurate, it's a +EV bet. Does this make sense?
|
|
#
?
Jan 29, 2021 01:30
|
|
|
mfcrocker posted:Do you have any good resources for the lower English leagues, especially League 2? Yep I do: https://experimental361.com/ Mr. Toodles posted:Amazing, thank you. Going to use this to chart out some games before I make bets. Do you watch all the games or just check results after the fact? I generally have 4 screens going at all time during live sports. Whether it's soccer, NHL, NBA, WNBA, UFC, Soccer,, WWE, AEW, Golf, NFL(Redzone is a godsend) etc. I usually go to bed early though like 9-10pm so I miss out on the West Coast action. In the morning I go through all of the extended highlights via youtube. NHL really has their poo poo together in regard to that you can just click the first game and it runs through all of them. Very convenient. I do that route for most sports - at least watching the highlights. Then if need be I'll look up specifics. I had the Sens last week in their Thursday game against the Jets. Someone asked me if it was dependent on Murray starting in net and I realized I wasn't actually 100% sure on that one. So I went through the previous few Sens games, focusing purely on Murray and studying him to decide whether he was a factor or not. (And I decided he was over Hogberg and then he got pulled after conceding 4 lol). If it's UFC I'll go back and watch a fighters previous few fights etc etc. Honestly I love the absolute hell out of sports, studying and analytics - making money from it is just a bonus. rouliroul posted:Ok so moneypuck has the Canadien at 59% chance of winning tonight. 888 has the Canadien at -125 which is equivalent to 56% chance of winning. Assuming moneypuck is accurate, it's a +EV bet. Does this make sense? Yes although I would never take moneypuck (or any analytics site) as gospel in that regard. You will see some extreme variations in those sort of sites and it's not factoring in the starting goalies for example. One issue too with xG etc is of course the current score of the game can drastically affect how it plays out on the ice. I do like to use them as a good starting point though. FYI I also never really factor in overtime in NHL. With 3 vs 3 and shootout I consider that generally a crapshoot and I go by regulation time only. I will still make bets where it is including OT/SO of course but I ideally do that only for bets I make +100 where I feel that crapshoot is therefore in my favour. If I feel confident enough in a team to back them to win based on performances in regulation and they are a favourite, I will look to bet a team in regulation. Also I think it's probably hidden by their Patreon wall, but as an example of advanced metric accuracy - Charting Hockey currently has a 62-38 record for 62% accuracy. As that is based on money line and includes a fair amount of heavy favourites I expect that will be running at a loss. (Although the first couple weeks of this season were like the wild west - things look like they are settling down within standard variance now so I think that should go up) Scotsman fucked around with this message at 02:51 on Jan 29, 2021 |
|
#
?
Jan 29, 2021 02:30
|
|
|
Yeah... my brother’s system runs off of expected goals for the most part, and was very profitable last year, but like, this is hockey, goalies are magic: https://twitter.com/IneffectiveMath...ingawful.com%2F Sometimes you should win but you don’t. E: https://twitter.com/IneffectiveMath/status/1354054427167117313?s=20
|
|
#
?
Jan 29, 2021 03:50
|
|
|
Jordan7hm posted:Yeah... my brother’s system runs off of expected goals for the most part, and was very profitable last year, but like, this is hockey, goalies are magic: Yep. Advanced metrics are great but they can't factor in stuff like "Oh Gibsons wearing a Kobe tribute mask tonight and is going to thus stand on his head". Goalies are key and it really sucks not knowing who is starting most games right now until right before game time. Or "Well this team is playing really sucky but 7 of their moms are there watching them so suddenly they are going to become world beaters." Another one of my favourites.
|
|
#
?
Jan 29, 2021 04:20
|
|
|
Does anyone here use the Kelly Criterion to determine bet size, and if so are you degen enough to be using full kelly or some fraction of it?
|
|
#
?
Jan 29, 2021 16:36
|
|
|
Does anyone have a reference on the # of dunks by player by game for this season? Can't seem to find the stat anywhere in my phone googling and have a potential boost on draft kings that's interesting. 
|
|
#
?
Jan 29, 2021 18:36
|
|
|
e: disregard my last post, it looks like basketball ref has it for this season: https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/w/willizi01.html -- Zion has 33 dunk attempts in 15 games, 2.2 https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/a/antetgi01.html -- Giannis has 40 over 16, 2.5 Spokes fucked around with this message at 19:12 on Jan 29, 2021 |
|
#
?
Jan 29, 2021 19:09
|
|
|
Spokes posted:e: disregard my last post, it looks like basketball ref has it for this season: Oh terrific, thank you for this! Debating on just throwing $5-10 at the above or actually risking my $100 freebet that's burning a hole in my pocket (and will be expiring this weekend). This gives me the info I needed to start making that decision. Seems like pretty good odds at +400. Appreciate the help, despite my extremely low stakes. 
|
|
#
?
Jan 29, 2021 19:26
|
|
|
Are there any prop bets on the Super Bowl yet? I’d bet the house that the first advertisement is a trailer for the movie Black Widow.
|
|
#
?
Jan 29, 2021 20:12
|
|
|
Edward Mass posted:Are there any prop bets on the Super Bowl yet? I’d bet the house that the first advertisement is a trailer for the movie Black Widow. What if it just turns out to be a tide ad?
|
|
#
?
Jan 29, 2021 21:50
|
|
|
 Here are my EPL bets for the weekend. Not using any advanced metrics yet.
|
|
#
?
Jan 29, 2021 22:58
|
|
|
Edward Mass posted:Are there any prop bets on the Super Bowl yet? I’d bet the house that the first advertisement is a trailer for the movie Black Widow. Yes. I'd say BetOnline/Sportsbetting.ag probably has one of the most comprehensive lists from what I have seen thus far. They have various commercial props but nothing in relation to Black Widow. I did do a CTRL+F for "Black W" and did find this one....  Scotsman fucked around with this message at 23:51 on Jan 29, 2021 |
|
#
?
Jan 29, 2021 23:48
|
|
|
Want some English League 2 bets? Course you do! 5u Carlisle (H) to beat Exeter @ 2.00 Disclaimer - Exeter are my team, but Carlisle are easily the best team in the league despite being 6th, we've padded our stats with a couple of home drubbings and are much weaker away. 3u Newport (A) to beat Harrogate @ 2.55 Harrogate are poo poo, Newport are not, simple as that. Would be lumping on this harder but a couple of Newport's best players were loanees that have gone back to their home clubs. 2u Mansfield (A) to beat Walsall @ 2.75 2u Morecambe (H) to beat Tranmere @ 2.2 Both of these are straight up xG plays (the 2 above are great xG plays that also make sense based on what I know about the league)
|
|
#
?
Jan 30, 2021 00:08
|
|
|
TraderStav posted:
Jumping off of this, is there a point where the odds are so ridiculous that you take the bet even though the outcome isnt super likely? I'm not talking about betting today that the Rockies are winning the 2021 world series, or something completely outlandish. A poker example would be a bounty tournament where you are in the bb, everyone folds to the small blind who goes all in for 2bb and they have a massive bounty, and you have 72o. I guess I'm talking about EV, but in poker its so black and white, while betting it's much more gray, or at least that's the way it seems. Sorry for the stupid question, but I'm a complete novice.
|
|
#
?
Jan 30, 2021 03:10
|
|
|
You take bets that are likely to lose if they are better value than the line. So if I value this bet at a 25% chance to win, but the line says it’s a 20% chance to win, that’s a good bet if my model is good. Make enough of those bets and you make money. I can’t remember my numbers from last year exactly but I was definitely in the green on dogs that I had under 50% to win. Based on how I was doing unit size it mostly kept the bets to 1-2 units though so it wasn’t a ton of money I don’t think. Losing an individual bet doesn’t matter, it’s how you perform in aggregate that matters.
|
|
#
?
Jan 30, 2021 04:55
|
|
|
What did you guys think of the movie "Uncut Gems"?
|
|
#
?
Jan 30, 2021 09:26
|
|
|
mfcrocker posted:Want some English League 2 bets? Course you do! Thanks for the Carlisle money! Just this week I started getting back into sports betting and years ago I was doing alright with the NBA. That said I think I'm going to combine my interest in getting into the English leagues and small gambling to make it a more fun introduction.
|
|
#
?
Jan 30, 2021 16:10
|
|
|
mfcrocker posted:Does anyone here use the Kelly Criterion to determine bet size, and if so are you degen enough to be using full kelly or some fraction of it? I do, but I'm using a tiny bankroll and assuming a 1-2% edge per bet. My plan for now is to grind bonuses with mostly NHL bets.
|
|
#
?
Jan 30, 2021 16:33
|
|
|
SunshineDanceParty posted:Thanks for the Carlisle money! Just this week I started getting back into sports betting and years ago I was doing alright with the NBA. That said I think I'm going to combine my interest in getting into the English leagues and small gambling to make it a more fun introduction. No problem, shame about the other two games that went ahead (Mansfield/Walsall got called off for covid reasons) I mean, it sucks that Exeter lost but it made me money so whatever!
|
|
#
?
Jan 30, 2021 18:06
|
|
|
Can you guys me multiple games to bet on throughout the day? Or like your best picks for the day. Doesn’t matter what sport. There is a road player in town and we will probably shoot pool for about 24 hours. I need stuff that I can pay attention to and throw up on the screen so I don’t get bored.
|
|
#
?
Jan 30, 2021 18:26
|
|
|
jase1 posted:Can you guys me multiple games to bet on throughout the day? Or like your best picks for the day. Doesn’t matter what sport. There is a road player in town and we will probably shoot pool for about 24 hours. I need stuff that I can pay attention to and throw up on the screen so I don’t get bored. New York Rangers at -110 Implied probability of winning is 52.4%, moneypuck has them at 62.3%
|
|
#
?
Jan 30, 2021 19:04
|
|
|
I got them at even money. 2k on rangers at even money.
|
|
#
?
Jan 30, 2021 19:17
|
|
|
jase1 posted:Can you guys me multiple games to bet on throughout the day? Or like your best picks for the day. Doesn’t matter what sport. There is a road player in town and we will probably shoot pool for about 24 hours. I need stuff that I can pay attention to and throw up on the screen so I don’t get bored. virginia tech +4.5 in basketball, take the over too (dunno if you'll get this in before tipoff in 15 minutes but whatever) grizzlies +3.5 det/gsw - take the over (224) it's gonna be a track meet
|
|
#
?
Jan 30, 2021 23:45
|
|
|
2k on grizzlies +3.5 2k det /gs o224.5
|
|
#
?
Jan 31, 2021 02:21
|
|
|
I would blow Dane Cook posted:What did you guys think of the movie "Uncut Gems"? I think it has increased the times the I’m gonna cum gif has been posted
|
|
#
?
Jan 31, 2021 02:56
|
|
|
Declan MacManus posted:det/gsw - take the over (224) it's gonna be a track meet Mind humoring me how you drew the conclusion? Also tried to get in on the VA Tech play on DK but the market kept getting suspended. Was nuts. Was a great call regardless.
|
|
#
?
Jan 31, 2021 03:06
|
|
|
is there any consensus on sportsbooks with the best mobile apps? or ones with apps to avoid?
|
|
#
?
Jan 31, 2021 03:18
|
|
|
TraderStav posted:Mind humoring me how you drew the conclusion? two awful defensive teams with lots of shooting; no insider knowledge here or anything, just regular basketball knowledge. the warriors play fast and they’ll probably be setting the tempo so it makes sense that both teams hit over 112 unless someone goes cold, they both average around 110 a game so since they’re playing each other it’s not a huge stretch
|
|
#
?
Jan 31, 2021 04:04
|
|
|
Declan MacManus posted:two awful defensive teams with lots of shooting; no insider knowledge here or anything, just regular basketball knowledge. the warriors play fast and they’ll probably be setting the tempo so it makes sense that both teams hit over 112 unless someone goes cold, they both average around 110 a game so since they’re playing each other it’s not a huge stretch Awesome, thank you for the background! Good calls all around so far. I saw the message too late on the Grizzlies.
|
|
#
?
Jan 31, 2021 04:12
|
|
|
pistons shot like rear end easy come easy go
|
|
#
?
Jan 31, 2021 06:12
|
|
|
Keep those picks coming. After a short rest we are going back to shooting all day. I’m up 7k from our first session. Anything you go today is great. I’ll bet anything.
|
|
#
?
Jan 31, 2021 14:45
|
|
|
OSU/MSU: OSU -7.5. I'm very new at this so be careful using my pick I also like BRI/TOT to draw in the EPL today
|
|
#
?
Jan 31, 2021 15:31
|
|
|
2k on osu 7.5 2k on the draw in BRI/TOT @+230 jase1 fucked around with this message at 15:47 on Jan 31, 2021 |
|
#
?
Jan 31, 2021 15:44
|
|
|
I have you a hard disclaimer! But I hope you hit both. As someone who bets $3-5 a game those numbers are eye popping! I'm still using house money from all the sick promotions DK threw at me and I'm still at nailbiter stages at times.
|
|
#
?
Jan 31, 2021 16:00
|
|
|
Got the Blackhawks at even money. Disclaimer: I lost this forum about 50k lifetime
|
|
#
?
Jan 31, 2021 16:24
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 8, 2024 08:53 |
|
|
i like wizards +8.5 but if you wait a bit the line could drop more which i'd feel more comfortable with
|
|
#
?
Jan 31, 2021 16:30
|
|