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Comstar posted:This is utterly wrong. Trump will cut all support to Ukraine AND NATO and tell Ukraine to surrender. Let's not forget that Trump almost certainly holds a personal grudge against Zelensky. Zelensky didn't go along with his "arms in exchange for launching an investigation into Biden" plan which lead to Trump's first impeachment. He will absolutely let Ukraine lose the win if and when he gets relected just to get back at Zelensky.
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May 17, 2024 17:32
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Keisari posted:On the other hand, he sided with Putin over FBI in the Helsinki summit. There is something super weird about his attitude towards him Piss tape is real
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May 17, 2024 17:33
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I mean yes Trump would betray Ukraine if someone offered him a wooden nickle and a spanking to do it, but that doesn't mean the rest of that dude's post isn't bullshit. Russia is gonna keep feeding man meat into Ukraine as long as Putin is alive, sure, but around about this time next year according to projections the Russian army will have to get there on foot because there won't be any vehicles left.
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May 17, 2024 18:04
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I was reading this recent interview with Fiona Hill and she mentions some points relevant to the discussion about how Trump might go, maybe folks would find it interesting so I share Fiona Hill on Putin, Ukraine, Global Challenges daviscenter.fas.harvard.edu posted:
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May 17, 2024 18:12
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Again, where is all this talk of Trump being president in waiting coming from? Is it just 2016 trauma? I don’t think the polls are accurate enough this far out. He is not even the Republican nominee yet. Also if we go by Alan Lichtmann, Biden is likely to win this coming election unless Trump find a way to Bush V Gore steal the whole thing.
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May 17, 2024 18:24
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Kraftwerk posted:Again, where is all this talk of Trump being president in waiting coming from? Who, exactly, do you think the Republican nominee may end up being instead?
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May 17, 2024 18:26
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Volmarias posted:Who, exactly, do you think the Republican nominee may end up being instead? That’s not my point. My point is we haven’t even begun to contest this election and everyone has thrown their hands in the air and decided rather prematurely that Donald J Trump is the next president of the United States. I find this sort of thinking flawed. I’m not saying to be complacent in a Biden victory, the election will still need to be hard fought and every voter would need to turn up and vote for their candidate for Biden to win. But there’s a lot of factors here that are very much in flux and so I find calls for an inevitable Trump victory to be premature.
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May 17, 2024 18:30
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Kraftwerk posted:Again, where is all this talk of Trump being president in waiting coming from? Biden has even already agreed to do a debate against him next month - before either of them have officially been declared to be the nominee of their respective parties.
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May 17, 2024 18:35
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DTurtle posted:There isn't really a mechanism that would lead to anyone else being the Republican nominee. My argument is not that Trump will not win the Republican nomination. Just that the electioneering is only just beginning with a lot of time between now and November for decisions to be made. The polling today is meaningless. If we used polling results this far from election day as an indicator of who’s going to be president, then we’d have had Jimmy Carter as a 2 term president and McGovern would've been president instead of Bush. Biden hasn’t hosed up badly enough to be at major risk of losing. I’d argue the only way Biden loses is if there’s a well timed recession between now and November and if he suffers a major foreign policy failure which Israel/Palestine could very well be. None of those things are decided yet.
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May 17, 2024 18:56
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Kraftwerk posted:My argument is not that Trump will not win the Republican nomination. Just that the electioneering is only just beginning with a lot of time between now and November for decisions to be made. The polling today is meaningless. From the perspective of the Europeans it makes sense to prepare and isolate lines of supply and support from bring undermined by the US executive. Individually they have all kinds of idiosyncratic ideas about US domestic politics and I am not sure if polling is something they consider seriously. From Hill's perspective she has reasons to dread a Trump administration that she probably feels very traumatized by, so her assessment might be based on personal factors, steeling herself etc. rather than being based in anything strongly predictive of the end result -- which at this point probably exists nowhere.
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May 17, 2024 19:02
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mawarannahr posted:From the perspective of the Europeans it makes sense to prepare and isolate lines of supply and support from bring undermined by the US executive. Individually they have all kinds of idiosyncratic ideas about US domestic politics and I am not sure if polling is something they consider seriously. From Hill's perspective she has reasons to dread a Trump administration that she probably feels very traumatized by, so her assessment might be based on personal factors, steeling herself etc. rather than being based in anything strongly predictive of the end result -- which at this point probably exists nowhere. I agree with you. We all have to be careful though because if you don’t like Trump the last thing you want to do is perpetuate conversations about the inevitability of his victory. It manufactures consent and makes it more likely to happen.
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May 17, 2024 19:06
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In college I had a professor of European political history, highly distinguished domestically and abroad, as well as an occasional advisor on foreign policy, who wrote a newspaper article in like February about how he was convinced the Democratic nominee would be Michelle Obama. I think Nikki Haley was his prediction for the Republican but the focus was on why it was going to be Michelle based on his sober analysis of Americans.
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May 17, 2024 19:21
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mawarannahr posted:In college I had a professor of European political history, highly distinguished domestically and abroad, as well as an occasional advisor on foreign policy, who wrote a newspaper article in like February about how he was convinced the Democratic nominee would be Michelle Obama. I think Nikki Haley was his prediction for the Republican but the focus was on why it was going to be Michelle based on his sober analysis of Americans. THIS February, after the primaries had begun? Do you have a link for that article, it sounds like a hoot.
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May 17, 2024 19:32
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Wheeljack posted:THIS February, after the primaries had begun? Do you have a link for that article, it sounds like a hoot. quote:removed link, pm if want mawarannahr fucked around with this message at 04:28 on May 18, 2024 |
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May 17, 2024 19:33
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I had a gig around the time when covid broke out in 2020 where I worked with an older Finnish guy who for some reason was a solid MAGA Trumper. I learned this during coffee breaks when he explained that Democrats had no chance, Trump was going to be re-elected in a landslide. Maybe it had something to do with him playing in a rock band probably some Ted Nugent type music, or being terminally online in the wrong kinds of forums. It's weird to be so invested in another country's politics that you preach some politician or party to people around you who like you have no say in those elections 
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May 17, 2024 20:01
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Kraftwerk posted:My argument is not that Trump will not win the Republican nomination. Just that the electioneering is only just beginning with a lot of time between now and November for decisions to be made. The polling today is meaningless.  tag.I was merely objecting to your statement that Trump isn't the nominee yet. That is a completely irrelevant technicality. And yes, Israel/Palestine is unfortunately a major, extremely relevant international policy happening that has major influence on the US election. This does NOT mean that I support any doom saying about how the election is already decided. HOWEVER, since this is not the US elections threads, but the War in Ukraine thread, I will pivot back to that with noting that last night Ukraine launched possibly the largest air/drone strike against Russiaso far, with more than a hundred drones attacking Crimea, Novorossiisk and Belgorod. This resulted in power outages in Sevastopol, destroyed at least two MIG-31 and a SU-27, and damaged a refinery in Novorossiisk that had just been repaired. Also, Putin has made some statements with regards to the goals of the offensive near Kharkiv (from The Guardian live blog): quote:Capturing Ukraine's Kharkiv is not part of Russia's current plan, says Putin DTurtle fucked around with this message at 20:07 on May 17, 2024 |
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May 17, 2024 20:05
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Nenonen posted:I had a gig around the time when covid broke out in 2020 where I worked with an older Finnish guy who for some reason was a solid MAGA Trumper. I learned this during coffee breaks when he explained that Democrats had no chance, Trump was going to be re-elected in a landslide. Maybe it had something to do with him playing in a rock band probably some Ted Nugent type music, or being terminally online in the wrong kinds of forums. It's weird to be so invested in another country's politics that you preach some politician or party to people around you who like you have no say in those elections There is something wonderfully hilarious about how a chud was created by globalization.
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May 18, 2024 00:18
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Charliegrs posted:Let's not forget that Trump almost certainly holds a personal grudge against Zelensky. Zelensky didn't go along with his "arms in exchange for launching an investigation into Biden" plan which lead to Trump's first impeachment. He will absolutely let Ukraine lose the win if and when he gets relected just to get back at Zelensky. I don't think he does, he's repeatedly praised Zelensky, they had a perfect phone call together 
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May 18, 2024 00:30
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DTurtle posted:See my Israel-Palestine ranks like dead last on lists of people's priorities. Not sure why MikeC is so confidently saying that Trump will win. I think he's very likely to lose. Given the 2022 midterm results and the impressive Republican trend of losing every single election since Trump got elected, including Trump himself, and Trump's very impressive list of federal charges against him, he has quite the hill to climb here.
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May 18, 2024 00:34
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small butter posted:Israel-Palestine ranks like dead last on lists of people's priorities. "Ah, nevertheless..." I'm not making the mistake again of underestimating what kind of things might happen between now and then. I honestly hope that he doesn't win, but given that in a normal universe he would have been wearing orange in ADX Florence for years now, I can't pretend it isn't possible.
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May 18, 2024 00:39
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fwiw mikeC doesnt post in the CSPAM ukraine thread and they've always been on the pessimistic side of predictions for ukraine. calling them a pro-russia/putin troll seems idiotic. you can disagree with people while they are posting their sincere opinions.
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May 18, 2024 01:02
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If the last 5 months demonstrated anything for ukraine is that the US is an unreliable ally at the best of times.
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May 18, 2024 01:10
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Burns posted:If the last 5 months demonstrated anything for ukraine is that the US is an unreliable ally at the best of times.
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May 18, 2024 01:24
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Cugel the Clever posted:GOP-controlled House is hardly the best of times. GOP controlled something is certainly a lot of the times though
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May 18, 2024 02:49
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Budzilla posted:Or check out the GOP primary results with Niki Haley getting 15%+ of the vote even though Trump is a sort of an incumbent and Haley dropped out more than a month ago. If 5% of those Haley Republicans thought "gently caress it I'm not leaving my house in November" Trump is hosed.
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May 18, 2024 09:13
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Burns posted:If the last 5 months demonstrated anything for ukraine is that the US is an unreliable ally at the best of times. You mean the last 5 decades?
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May 18, 2024 16:03
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Some insights by Anders Puck Nielsen on why we should not be so pessimistic about the latest offensive in and around Kharkiv. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXzs4dlfN30 Basically the media is confused about what significant tactical gains mean, clearly not enough forces for Russia to take or really threaten Kharkiv, and if it is a diversion plan it is a bad one. Also Russian generals are glory hounds.
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May 18, 2024 17:36
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neat new levada poll: a majority of russian society would be opposed to Putin choosing to end the war and returning the annexed territories (though it doesnt break down between the just the donbass or also crimea) https://x.com/DrRadchenko/status/1791648791583449370
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May 18, 2024 18:09
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Qtotonibudinibudet posted:neat new levada poll: a majority of russian society would be opposed to Putin choosing to end the war and returning the annexed territories (though it doesnt break down between the just the donbass or also crimea) I'm surprised that 30% would agree to completely give up on the project that has been the primary focus for Russia over the past decade. It would mean losing international relations, 500k casualties and scuppering your economy was all for absolutely nothing.
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May 18, 2024 18:45
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Qtotonibudinibudet posted:neat new levada poll: a majority of russian society would be opposed to Putin choosing to end the war and returning the annexed territories (though it doesnt break down between the just the donbass or also crimea) Not surprising. If you lost a relative to conquer some dirt, you'll probably not want to give back the dirt. At the same time, you don't want to lose more relatives.
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May 18, 2024 18:46
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OAquinas posted:Not surprising. If you lost a relative to conquer some dirt, you'll probably not want to give back the dirt. At the same time, you don't want to lose more relatives. … how exactly do they think Putin is going to end the war, then? Takes two to stop fighting and I’m pretty sure Ukraine isn’t going to go ‘well darn! Good game’ when Putin tries the old ‘Oop gotta go moms calling me thanks for the
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May 18, 2024 19:13
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Oracle posted:… how exactly do they think Putin is going to end the war, then? Takes two to stop fighting and I’m pretty sure Ukraine isn’t going to go ‘well darn! Good game’ when Putin tries the old ‘Oop gotta go moms calling me thanks for the Do you think Ukrainians have infinite will to fight? They have already run short on people eager to join the war. Definitely one scenario how this can end is where they say ok, enough is enough, we can't go on.
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May 18, 2024 20:05
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d64 posted:Do you think Ukrainians have infinite will to fight? They have already run short on people eager to join the war. Definitely one scenario how this can end is where they say ok, enough is enough, we can't go on. Alternatively, enough Russians decide this. The problematic part for them is they can't act on that without removing their government.
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May 18, 2024 20:33
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Zwabu posted:Alternatively, enough Russians decide this. The problematic part for them is they can't act on that without removing their government. imo the interesting bit is that even if they essentially did remove their present government, most would want the successor to continue the war barring a change in ukraine's position
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May 18, 2024 22:34
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A big flaming stink posted:fwiw mikeC doesnt post in the CSPAM ukraine thread and they've always been on the pessimistic side of predictions for ukraine. Being pessimistic is fine. Lots of people in this thread are pessimistic, and they often have good reason to be. The thing that got him called a pro-Russia/Pro-Putin troll is him being smug and happy that things are going badly for Ukraine.
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May 18, 2024 22:55
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Charliegrs posted:Let's not forget that Trump almost certainly holds a personal grudge against Zelensky. Zelensky didn't go along with his "arms in exchange for launching an investigation into Biden" plan which lead to Trump's first impeachment. He will absolutely let Ukraine lose the win if and when he gets relected just to get back at Zelensky. it's somewhere between 80/20 and 90/10 that Biden will win the election. Absent some magic sea of change against Ukraine it's reasonably likely we see even more US support of Ukraine before the election. Most talk about some kind of Trump risk is doomerism until October because Biden is still the current president.
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May 19, 2024 00:11
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notwithoutmyanus posted:it's somewhere between 80/20 and 90/10 that Biden will win the election. Absent some magic sea of change against Ukraine it's reasonably likely we see even more US support of Ukraine before the election. Most talk about some kind of Trump risk is doomerism until October because Biden is still the current president. Biden is still the president, but the House (which holds ‘the power of the purse’ e.g. gets to decide what money funds what where) is still held by Republicans. And it may well still be held by Republicans after the November elections. Democrats are likely to narrowly lose the Senate. Not trying to be a Debbie Downer but there’s more to it than just ‘Biden won so everything’s going to be fine.’
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May 19, 2024 00:33
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Oracle posted:Biden is still the president, but the House (which holds ‘the power of the purse’ e.g. gets to decide what money funds what where) is still held by Republicans. And it may well still be held by Republicans after the November elections. Democrats are likely to narrowly lose the Senate. true, but roughly half those republicans support ukraine aide. it's more a question of whether the MAGA faction of the party gains a significant share of control. idk what the numbers are on that shifting this election, but id have figured it'd have already happened in the previous round of house elections if it was gonna
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May 19, 2024 00:54
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Oracle posted:Biden is still the president, but the House (which holds ‘the power of the purse’ e.g. gets to decide what money funds what where) is still held by Republicans. And it may well still be held by Republicans after the November elections. Democrats are likely to narrowly lose the Senate. I do agree fully, but even Republican house control is even less likely . As is, democrats are somewhat able to control it regardless as they already pushed more Ukraine funds through what, two weeks ago? Republicans are crumbling before the election. The Senate will indeed be a huge and glaring issue, not that it ever hasn't been. ^^ covers it as well. notwithoutmyanus fucked around with this message at 00:58 on May 19, 2024 |
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May 19, 2024 00:56
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Qtotonibudinibudet posted:imo the interesting bit is that even if they essentially did remove their present government, most would want the successor to continue the war barring a change in ukraine's position An interesting thing would be a demographics breakdown on who supports the war. Russias demographics are old and lopsided - it's alot easier for old men and women to support the war when they have no personal fear of being sent into it, but consume the propaganda of how important it is for the Russian state. In terms of political power it doesn't matter if pensioners in Ryazan support the war, but the productive labour in Moscow and St Petersburg. Doesn't mean they don't aswell (domestic propoganda is hell of a thing) but its something to consider.
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May 19, 2024 07:34
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