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Expected value isn't the right measure for trades because your gains and losses are multiplicative rather than additive. You need to be looking at the yield on your investments instead. If you're taking money out as well as adding it in that gets to be trick to define but the time-weighted rate of return is generally a reasonable choice. You can turn a profit day trading but it's hard to beat the yield on passive investing due to commissions and taxes.
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Apr 22, 2024 22:06
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drk posted:Sure, if you are day trading in a year when the market is up bigly (like 2021), pretty much anything you buy in the morning will be in profit by the afternoon more days than not. It makes a lot of stupid people think they are trading geniuses. I think it says USDCAD. e: 
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Apr 22, 2024 22:20
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Boris Galerkin posted:I think it says USDCAD. lol! They're day trading forex? Just went from a bad idea to an incredibly bad idea
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Apr 22, 2024 22:31
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What makes it an even worse bad idea and how does it compare to putting retirement funds in dogecoin vs buying lottery scratchers? Asking cause I don't know anything about day trading or forex except that day trading is practically like gambling.
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Apr 22, 2024 22:34
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actually zero sum, not de facto zero sum like daytrading equities
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Apr 22, 2024 23:05
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Boris Galerkin posted:What makes it an even worse bad idea and how does it compare to putting retirement funds in dogecoin vs buying lottery scratchers? Asking cause I don't know anything about day trading or forex except that day trading is practically like gambling. I guess I just meant that day trading SPY or AAPL or something is a lot less risky than trading forex. The moves in the USD - CAD market are absolutely tiny on an intraday basis, and don't have a long term up only trend. As an example, USD/CAD has changed by 0.15% in the last year, and less than 2% in the past 5 years. This means in order to make money trading the exchange rates, you have to put up a lot of capital and be extremely lucky. I don't know much of the details but I am under the impression the vast majority of retail forex traders lose money. Retail long only stock investors will probably trail the market return but it's much, much easier to turn a profit. edit: a quick search suggests 10% or less of forex traders are profitable. you'd almost be better off trading crypto drk fucked around with this message at 23:14 on Apr 22, 2024 |
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Apr 22, 2024 23:11
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That said, if you have the inside skinny on a country no longer existing a year or two from now, you might stand to make a lot of money!! (You almost certainly do not have this information)
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Apr 22, 2024 23:19
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Homeschoolers are usually weird religious nutjobs with rather strong opinions about the government, so who knows what they think about the impending demise of the US and/or Canada
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Apr 22, 2024 23:25
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drk posted:Homeschoolers are usually weird religious nutjobs with rather strong opinions about the government, so who knows what they think about the impending demise of the US and/or Canada Time to put it all into Dinars! It's happening!!!
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Apr 22, 2024 23:26
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Volmarias posted:That said, if you have the inside skinny on a country no longer existing a year or two from now, you might stand to make a lot of money!! (You almost certainly do not have this information) buy the ruble dip
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Apr 22, 2024 23:31
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drk posted:lol, this one is just as bad: Boomers With Metals: Participation Trophies
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Apr 22, 2024 23:40
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Potato Salad posted:Boomers With Metals: Participation Trophies Mods
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Apr 22, 2024 23:43
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I think a discussion on forex was where I first came across the phrase "picking up nickels in front of a steamroller" and it definitely fits.
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Apr 23, 2024 00:46
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https://twitter.com/quantian1/status/1782580908203417883
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Apr 23, 2024 04:24
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Good* news! Politicians keep cutting or reallocating the IRS’ budget to other purposes because taxes are evil** so you probably won’t actually face any consequences, go hog wild! *bad **might benefit other people
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Apr 23, 2024 04:47
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eh, forget the IRS, I'm sure the DOJ can find a wire fraud or two in fraud-plan.jpg here
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Apr 23, 2024 05:23
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Is you instagramming a criminal loving conspiracy???
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Apr 23, 2024 07:34
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drk posted:eh, forget the IRS, I'm sure the DOJ can find a wire fraud or two in fraud-plan.jpg here I don't know US tax, but does this scheme boil down to "pay your kids a deductable salary; they won't have to pay income tax on it"? Do you really need all of those steps and legal entities for that? Streamline your tax avoidance, yo
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Apr 23, 2024 08:29
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A lot of people have a mindset that's basically 'more complicated = more better'. Especially when they think they're being incredibly sneaky about shady poo poo they're up to, despite more steps logically presenting more points of failure and exposure. You see it a lot with means testing too.
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Apr 23, 2024 09:18
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ahh yes, legendarily untracable currency transfer system. zelle!!!
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Apr 23, 2024 10:16
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Lyesh posted:ahh yes, legendarily untracable currency transfer system. zelle!!! I think they're trying to avoid reversible payment methods more than they're trying to make the transfers untraceable.
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Apr 23, 2024 12:21
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I'm not sure about the part where you pay your kids to dodge taxes, but forming an S-Corp to dodge taxes is a thing that is legitimately recommended for self-employed people when the business is at a level where it makes sense. IIRC the idea is that you would pay yourself a minimal salary, which is subject to payroll + income taxes, and then you'd "distribute" the rest of it to the shareholders, which is just you, which I think is only subject to income taxes? There's also the part where you as the S Corp entity can also throw 69k into your employee's (read: you) 401k as a profit share arrangement where it won't be taxed either. The part where he has listed Zelle/Cash/Check in the video is him saying that once you have an S-Corp you can't pay yourself/your kids via those methods and instead have to do payroll or form another LLC. Not sayin they are giving good or bad advice because I don't know but the only reason that screenshot looks so complicated is because it's at the end of a whiteboard session. Like if you sat through a calculus class from start to end you could follow the whiteboard but if you just showed up in the last 5 minutes the board would already be filled and you'd be wondering wtf too.
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Apr 23, 2024 12:22
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Barudak posted:Is you instagramming a criminal loving conspiracy??? 
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Apr 23, 2024 12:28
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Boris Galerkin posted:I'm not sure about the part where you pay your kids to dodge taxes, but forming an S-Corp to dodge taxes is a thing that is legitimately recommended for self-employed people when the business is at a level where it makes sense. IIRC the idea is that you would pay yourself a minimal salary, which is subject to payroll + income taxes, and then you'd "distribute" the rest of it to the shareholders, which is just you, which I think is only subject to income taxes? There's also the part where you as the S Corp entity can also throw 69k into your employee's (read: you) 401k as a profit share arrangement where it won't be taxed either. Paying children or relatives for fake jobs to avoid taxes is definitely illegal. It's "you can find the answer in 30 seconds of googling" illegal. It is allowed to hire and pay your children for actual legitimate jobs at a company you own, but that's not what's being proposed here. I assure you the IRS knows about this "one weird trick".
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Apr 23, 2024 12:36
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mrmcd posted:Paying children or relatives for fake jobs to avoid taxes is definitely illegal. It's "you can find the answer in 30 seconds of googling" illegal. It is allowed to hire and pay your children for actual legitimate jobs at a company you own, but that's not what's being proposed here. I assure you the IRS knows about this "one weird trick". Yeah and iirc even for paying yourself via s corp payroll it has to be appropriate, ie you can't pay yourself a salary of $1 and give the rest to the shareholders.
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Apr 23, 2024 12:45
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EricBauman posted:I think they're trying to avoid reversible payment methods more than they're trying to make the transfers untraceable. That makes sense. I was looking at it in terms of why would you send money from your sole proprietorship to your LLC in the first place? Assuming that the lines are showing cash flow, which i was wrong about. otoh, i watched the video and the "I don't want to be paying the extra $800 [for LLC fees] when the only reason I created this company was to get away from paying this tax [FICA]." part at the end is CHOICE.
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Apr 23, 2024 12:53
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mrmcd posted:Paying children or relatives for fake jobs to avoid taxes is definitely illegal. It's "you can find the answer in 30 seconds of googling" illegal. It is allowed to hire and pay your children for actual legitimate jobs at a company you own, but that's not what's being proposed here. I assure you the IRS knows about this "one weird trick". How many millions (billions?) of forgiven PPP "loans" went to "small businesses" suddenly "hiring" a family member as a "bookkeeper", and how much of that was clawed back? It's not that the federal government can't identify this sort of fraud, but lack of resources (and to some extent public opinion about federal white collar law enforcement as a boogeyman) often means they won't go after it.
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Apr 23, 2024 13:15
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Got me wondering what magic my parents did to open and fund a Roth IRA for me when I was 10
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Apr 23, 2024 16:02
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Rufio posted:Got me wondering what magic my parents did to open and fund a Roth IRA for me when I was 10 the magic is crimes you need (legitimately) earned income to fund an IRA, so if you dont recall clocking in down at the factory when you were 10, it was crimes
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Apr 23, 2024 16:57
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Just a little tax fraud, as a treat
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Apr 23, 2024 17:01
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Did you walk any dogs when you were 10? Idk.
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Apr 23, 2024 17:05
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Rufio posted:Got me wondering what magic my parents did to open and fund a Roth IRA for me when I was 10 Now you're making all the parents in the thread feel like we're loving up by not bending rules to take advantage of the system enough for our kids. Bleah. https://www.fidelity.com/learning-center/personal-finance/retirement/turbocharge-childs-retirement https://www.fidelity.com/retirement-ira/roth-ira-kids "...consider maintaining a written log of their earnings in case the IRS asks questions", teehee. Wink wink fidelity. I believe you're not *supposed* to count money done for chores. 20 bucks a day to 'clean the house' shouldn't count. But we've got enough kids making real money that fidelity has a whole program for 'em. Huh. Baddog fucked around with this message at 17:15 on Apr 23, 2024 |
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Apr 23, 2024 17:11
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Baddog posted:I believe you're not *supposed* to count money done for chores. 20 bucks a day to 'clean the house' shouldn't count. But we've got enough kids making real money that fidelity has a whole program for 'em. Huh. Yeah, pretty much if you arent getting W2 income or some kinds of 1099 income you cant contribute to an IRA. My guess is the IRS considers money given to kids for chores or an allowance to either be a gift or de minimis (too trivial to care about). In either case, it wouldnt be eligible to go into an IRA.
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Apr 23, 2024 17:36
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Barudak posted:Is you instagramming a criminal loving conspiracy??? Babbies With Mobilephones: Is you instagramming a criminal loving conspiracy???
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Apr 23, 2024 18:20
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Dancing Peasant posted:Babbies With Mobilephones: Is you instagramming a criminal loving conspiracy???
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Apr 23, 2024 18:21
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Dancing Peasant posted:Babbies With Mobilephones: Is you instagramming a criminal loving conspiracy???
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Apr 23, 2024 18:51
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Dancing Peasant posted:Babbies With Mobilephones: Is you instagramming a criminal loving conspiracy??? 
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Apr 23, 2024 19:31
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drk posted:My guess is the IRS considers money given to kids for chores or an allowance to either be a gift or de minimis (too trivial to care about). In either case, it wouldnt be eligible to go into an IRA. Yah, it's just that we've got *another* tax on honesty at this point. I gotta stop ranting on this, we all know it's hosed. When fidelity.com has multiple pages set up prominently pushing this product and saying "if you don't have 1099s or w2s, might want to consider keeping some handwritten notes in case the IRS ever bothers you, lolol", it's obviously something that a ton of people are doing. And it's huge, putting a couple thousand into your kids roth starting when they can walk will compound massively for them over 60 years.
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Apr 23, 2024 19:41
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Reminds me that I should put my kids on our credit card to start building their credit history, which I think is legal in Canada…
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Apr 23, 2024 21:07
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This feels like the white collar version of “it’s not armed robbery if you use a fake gun”
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Apr 23, 2024 21:22
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