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Pikehead
Dec 3, 2006

Looking for WMDs, PM if you have A+ grade stuff
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Torrannor posted:

What would that accomplish? NATO troops aren't going to be involved in fighting in Ukraine, except for whatever amount of personnel is needed to transfer arms shipments to the Ukrainians. Even if this behavior shifts some NATO troops to the Belarussian border, it's not like those soldiers were helping the Ukrainians anyway.

NATO troops aren't the target - it's more to tie up Ukrainian troops in the north west Ukraine.

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Pikehead
Dec 3, 2006

Looking for WMDs, PM if you have A+ grade stuff
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psydude posted:

I'm seeing videos on Reddit of a burning Russian ship at a port in the Sea of Azov. Allegedly it's a landing craft.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YKiOmcaqdiE

e: https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/1506888821073453061

Could be Ukrainians, could be Ivan didn't want to be stuck on a ship being dangled out in front of the Ukrainians to see if they actually have anti-ship missiles.

Pikehead
Dec 3, 2006

Looking for WMDs, PM if you have A+ grade stuff
Fun Shoe
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TStvtOgp4ow

This looks to be a debrief of a Russian VDV soldier captured after their air assault at the start of the war.

Essentially the soldiers were told they were going on a training exercise to Belarus, landed there, did a bunch of training, got on a helicopter to do more training and then while airborne got told 'we're taking over Ukraine, we're going to link up with our heavy equipment Real Soon Now(tm)'. Assault didn't go quite as expected, they sat in and around the airport for a couple of days with no direction, no orders and no clue, Ukrainians kept artillerying their locations, the Russians decided to bug out (without any plan being communicated to this soldier and others). Pnomarov Nikita Nikoayevich then ended up in a vehicle that got stuck due to bad driving, wandered around for a bit and then woke up with guns being pointed at him.

Pikehead
Dec 3, 2006

Looking for WMDs, PM if you have A+ grade stuff
Fun Shoe
A whole bunch of twitter and youtube links:

Youtube video with examples on how old and outdated manual procedures and operator fatigue due to bad anti-air computer displays probably contributed significantly to the sinking of the Moskva: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gaiVjJWOUWE

Tweet with images of a used Switchblade recovered by Russian forces in Kharkiv Oblast: https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1522549331382915074
Tweet with a used motor section of a Brimestone 1 (manufactured September 2001) found by Russian forces: https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1522587116747862017

US M777 155mm howitzer either in training use or battlefield use by Ukrainians: https://twitter.com/glosmeusec/status/1522204905662001160
M777 active-jet ammunition (approx 40km range) in Ukrainian hands: https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPR/status/1522161684634214400

US Air Force RQ-4B Global Hawk flying around unconcerned in the Black Sea: https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1522517385198153729
Multiple western and european countries flying intelligence missions in and around the Black Sea - everyone is welcome! https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1522583171656736768

Dead T90M found: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/worl...ocid=uxbndlbing

Literal PedoBear used by Russian Spetnaz as a unit badge: https://mobile.twitter.com/RALee85/status/1518730456635748354

Pikehead
Dec 3, 2006

Looking for WMDs, PM if you have A+ grade stuff
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Murgos posted:

Ignoring the patch, why would your theoretically best trained troops doing urban patrols? Shouldn’t they be doing deep recon and spotting high value targets for strikes?

Same reason that the Australian SAS was sent on repeated tours in doing the same thing in Afghanistan - political expediency. Only difference is that there's a chance that any war crimes committed by the SAS might be bought to light and punished.

Pikehead
Dec 3, 2006

Looking for WMDs, PM if you have A+ grade stuff
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mlmp08 posted:

I don't think we can really turst these coerced videos. The video starts with the interrogator making the Soldier reveal his full name and his HOME ADDRESS back in Russia. Later the interrogator catches on that the soldier has said a few times that there are lots of good, Russian-speaking, Slavic people in Ukraine, and the interrogator gets pissed and starts lecturing on how it's not only the Russian-speaking people who are good, etc.

A video of a captured soldier being made to reveal his full name and home address, reading a prepared statement, and having words put in his mouth by the captor is pretty hosed up. I know people don't support Russia, but it's just poo poo behavior and is exactly the kind of video that would be illegal for the US military to produce and distribute under US Code unless someone got some John Yoo level legal gymnastics to justify it.

I hadn't thought of that - appreciate you pointing that out.

Pikehead
Dec 3, 2006

Looking for WMDs, PM if you have A+ grade stuff
Fun Shoe
Is it even possible to demine and then escort any ships through that environment?

Ignoring what happens if the demining is successful, I'm not sure I can see Russia wanting to allow the movement of ships.

If it does go ahead though then it's the biggest middle finger yet from Europe/America - essentially risking european and american lives and ships for Ukrainian commerce.

Pikehead
Dec 3, 2006

Looking for WMDs, PM if you have A+ grade stuff
Fun Shoe
Footage of precision strikes against Russian vehicles - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wnhhqFak-9E

Pikehead
Dec 3, 2006

Looking for WMDs, PM if you have A+ grade stuff
Fun Shoe
Russian radar site successfully engaging and destroying HIMARS missile.

I can't find confirmation from any of the geolocation sites unfortunately, but I think that's more my inability to search.

edit: but it looks like it's been successfully geolocated as per https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WudxK-ONmp8

https://twitter.com/jayinkyiv/status/1549682250287140869


and

https://twitter.com/poliitikasse/status/1549786661827002368

Pikehead fucked around with this message at 03:10 on Jul 21, 2022

Pikehead
Dec 3, 2006

Looking for WMDs, PM if you have A+ grade stuff
Fun Shoe
They're taken in different places (and probably different years)- the building in the background is noticeably different.

The first one is a reference "before being on fire" photo.

Pikehead
Dec 3, 2006

Looking for WMDs, PM if you have A+ grade stuff
Fun Shoe
Could be an old hit, but the humvee in the twitter videos took some fire at some point - the armoured glass definitely stopped something:

Pikehead
Dec 3, 2006

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CommieGIR posted:

Ukraine is not a signatory to the NPT, their only guarantee to not make or have nukes was the Budapest Memorandum which Russia already largely invalidated through their ongoing actions to violate their security assurances.

Regardless, Ukraine is not likely to make nuclear weapons or lacks the facilities to make them at this time. And honestly, once Ukraine is fully in NATO I suspect they are going to ask the US for to provide deterrence especially after Russia stated their intention to station nuclear weapons in Belarus.

Once this is all settled I can see the Ukrainian government asking to be under the US nuclear protection umbrella, but I can't see Russia stationing nuclear weapons in Belarus.

Ignoring why Russia would do it when they share a border with Ukraine and have perfectly good cruise missiles*, you gotta imagine even Lukashenko giving Russia the most massive "WTF are you thinking" side-eye at that statement - the Belarusian army went "LOL NOPE" at being asked to help invade Ukraine, they and the rest of Belarus aren't going to want the attention from NATO/Latvia/Lithuania/Poland if there are nukes in Belarus.

* Public toilets are totally valid targets for megatonne range weapons

Pikehead
Dec 3, 2006

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CommieGIR posted:

They intend to:

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/6/25/russia-to-send-belarus-nuclear-capable-missiles-within-months

Part of the Referendum earlier in the year was towards that goal of both stationing Strategic weapons in Belarus and starting the process of integrating Belarus into Russia proper.

Even talking about putting nuclear weapons on planes, too. I really misread that situation.

Pikehead
Dec 3, 2006

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Fun Shoe
Not even close to a full grouping of Grads, but here is drone footage of a russian rocket barrage being launched and then footage of the impact site:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6oN_XD69vZA

Pikehead
Dec 3, 2006

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Fun Shoe
It looks like Ukraine is deploying the JDAM-ER kits they received earlier in the year with fantastic results:

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/wing-kits-for-ukraines-jdam-bombs-would-be-a-big-problem-for-russia

https://twitter.com/intermarium24/status/1632511739018334215

Pikehead
Dec 3, 2006

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Switzerland is destroying old Rapier anti-air systems rather than donating them to Ukraine or selling them back to the Brits (who made them): https://www.lemonde.fr/en/internati..._6019124_4.html

The Swiss really know how to make friends.

Pikehead
Dec 3, 2006

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MmZDiLp0imk

There's a just released interview with trench guy that goes over what happened, and it has really good english subtitles. It's much clearer what's going on.

Of note:
* The russian bmp apparently stops around 5m from the trench. Trench guy thinks he hit it at least twice, and it's possible that some of the RPG rounds didn't arm (or didn't hit in the right way) because it's so close
* It's the first time for the trench for ammo guy, and apparently he had a concussion on top of everything else
* The rifles seem to jam a bit
* Trench guy fires a round into the trench wall when reloading
* There's alot of grenades being thrown by both sides

Pikehead
Dec 3, 2006

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Fun Shoe
A Russian Su-34 accidently bombed Belgorod (a russian city close to the pre-2014 border): https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65344370

Not much detail other than the plane type and pictures of a hole in the ground and damaged cars.

Pikehead
Dec 3, 2006

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lightpole posted:

What is a 2x4 in a metric country? Is it still called a 2x4 or something weird?

It's measured in mm - see the results when I search for 2x4 https://www.bunnings.com.au/search/products?q=2x4+timber&sort=BoostOrder&page=1

Pikehead
Dec 3, 2006

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Stultus Maximus posted:

Without getting into :nsa: what is the function of that ship in this war? My only experience with Russian AGI types was over in the Pacific when they tailed us around the Sea of Japan (while the Japanese tailed them and the Koreans tailed them and...). What does an AGI contribute from 200nm away from the coast when the adversary doesn't actually have a Navy?

It's been mentioned in other threads by other people - it's a good bet that this intel ship is being used to monitor what the Ukrainians are doing anti-air and air force wise, as well as monitoring how the Ukrainians react to Russian Air Force/cruise missile attacks.

Pikehead
Dec 3, 2006

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Chunky Monkey posted:

Wagner proved you can practically drive to the doorstep of Moscow with almost no resistance right now, what if Luka is actually playing Putin, bringing Wagner over to Belarus, giving him command of the military there and invading Russia. I remember reading somewhere how Luka has always wanted a union state with Russia with himself at the helm, maybe now is the right time for him to make a move. I know this is terribly clancychat but nothing in the last 48 hours makes sense so why not?

I can't see the Belarus military thinking kindly of that. They give off some seriously hard "We're tolerating you for now Lukashenko. Upsetting the balance of things is not something the military is going to tolerate" vibes, and Lukashenko allowing Prigozhin launch a second coup attempt from Belarus would upset things quite a bit.

Then again, Wagner launching a first coup wasn't on my 2023 bingo card, just as Russia invading more of Ukraine wasn't on my 2022 bingo card, so :shrug:

Pikehead
Dec 3, 2006

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Purported shootdown of a Russian SU-25 two days ago by the Ukrainian 10th Mountain Assault Brigade "Edelweiss".

https://t.me/UkraineNow/35395

Pikehead
Dec 3, 2006

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One of the donated Challenger 2 tanks has been spotted in Ukraine, probably close to being in action, cope cage addon included:

https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1691732758391836867


Russia has released footage of drones attacking a Ukrainian Stryker East of Robotyne. There's speculation that the reason the video cuts off so quickly at the end is that the Stryker kept on moving.

Footage is both from the drone attacking the Stryker and then from the drone observing the drone attacking the Stryker:

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1691379677225463808

Pikehead
Dec 3, 2006

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Fun Shoe

Kith posted:

I don't think that's a cope cage, I think that's a grenade cage. It's just a regular chain link fence to bounce grenades away from the hatches.

Or are they all cope cages now?

It was a throwaway remark by myself but while a cope cage won't stop anti-armor weapons, I hadn't thought about smaller grenade sized weapons.

Pikehead
Dec 3, 2006

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Mzuri posted:

Part 3 of The Secret Diary of a Ukrainian Soldier is up on The Economist.

I cleaned it up a little, but there may still be some artifacts from the copy-paste:

Main take away is that mayo on borscht is a war crime. The Geneva Convention says Sour Cream or GTFO.

That's a really down to earth rendition of what they're facing in Ukraine. Thanks for that!

Pikehead
Dec 3, 2006

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Oscar Wilde Bunch posted:

I thought this was intresting. I had no idea about this.

I assume we were using different poo poo in like WW2, but it makes me wonder how we crapped out as much ammo then.

Total war footing for the main countries will allow crapping out of quite a lot of things i.e. typewriter companies made rifles.

Pikehead
Dec 3, 2006

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Wingnut Ninja posted:

People lost their poo poo over being asked to wear a mask and not go to Applebee's for a few months, I can only imagine the seething ball of incandescent rage that would be generated today by introducing rationing, mandatory recycling, limited consumer products, and everything else that they did during WWII.

I mean, 911 gave metric loads of cover for metric assloads of spending, and that was against an opponent that wasn't a threat to the US.

The only near peer left that's credible is China, and that's due to a number of geopolitical factors (no friendly nations to base out of for land invasions) and their armed forces build up. I would think if things got hot though and somehow the conflict dragged on for months then suddenly there'd be money to build up factories and supply lines.

Drifting pretty close to Clancy chat though.

Pikehead
Dec 3, 2006

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jaete posted:

Would it make sense to hit these drone boats with some kind of guided missile? If they're within say 5 km of the big ship, that seems like a possible range for something like a TOW. The boat is (maybe? not sure) visible with a heat detector sensor so should be targetable; a bunch of high explosive might work better than bullets. Don't know how accurate any of that is, just thinking out loud.

Ukraine's drone boats seem to cost about $200-250k USD according to random googling, TOW missiles apparently are $100k each, Javelins twice that. Hmm

I think Brimstone (and it's variants) are designed for this scenario - they're small, cheap (comparably) and fast.

They're dual mode (land attack and ship attack) capable - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rsZG1-MnMvc

I don't know if they're actually deployed on any ships at the moment, but I figure that drone boats like these could be mitigated with something like this and a suitably configured CIWS.

Brimstone is actually in operation in Ukraine, used for land attack.

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Pikehead
Dec 3, 2006

Looking for WMDs, PM if you have A+ grade stuff
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Footage of a damaged Patriot launcher being returned for repair to the US from the Ukraine, and several Patriot radars being sent back - https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineRussiaReport/comments/1c9ccbw/ua_pov_a_battle_damaged_m903_mim104_patriot/

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