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Budzilla
Oct 14, 2007

We can all learn from our past mistakes.

Orthanc6 posted:

There is a very long road ahead, barring unforeseeable changes. Ukraine's made surprising progress but if we look at what they've taken back this fall compared to what's left to take back, even from the February borders, yeah that's a lot of ground to reclaim.

For this war to end quickly there would have to be some sort seismic shift in the political landscape in Russia. Putin will be happy enough to throw bodies into the meat grinder as long as it keeps his position safe.

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Budzilla
Oct 14, 2007

We can all learn from our past mistakes.

https://twitter.com/saintjavelin/status/1586169902196756480

Wars of the future will be fought with shitposting. Not really DnD post material but the propaganda war has taken on a very sophomoric tone.

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

Budzilla
Oct 14, 2007

We can all learn from our past mistakes.

Didn't the Russian army move a lot of its equipment a few months ago in Kherson before the September UA counter-offensive started?

Budzilla
Oct 14, 2007

We can all learn from our past mistakes.

mllaneza posted:

Russia will have numbers, but Ukraine also has reserves to call up. They're also in better shape than Russia to train them effectively, both at home and with help of NATO countries. Add in the double morale boosts of defending their homes and the fact that they're winning right now, and Ukraine will have a large number of well-trained and highly motivated troops coming on line outfitted with quality gear. Russia has none of these advantages and is going to be in real trouble on the front line when the snow starts.

Honestly, time is starting to favor the Ukranians. This winter will be bad for Russia, but if the war is still going on when the Spring mud dries, they're getting steamrolled.

To add to this, Russia trains its troops by sending in the new recruits to the unit they will be deployed to, not some specialised base to learn their skills. This is a problem when your BTG is fighting a war and they have lost a lot of their trained soldiers already.

Budzilla
Oct 14, 2007

We can all learn from our past mistakes.

Chalks posted:

The anti-infantry use for these rockets was clear from the design, but it didn't occur to me that any vehicle caught in the blast isn't just damaged, but literally every single component is comprehensively destroyed. Can't salvage a single thing.
The designers of the munition probably knew that it would cause damage to soft targets like trucks, radar, etc.... I am really surprised with all the puncture holes in just the 1 truck.

Budzilla
Oct 14, 2007

We can all learn from our past mistakes.

Nenonen posted:

They are already in Moldovan territory, apparently he means connecting with Transnistria & annexing it all by attacking through... Kherson, Mykolaiv and Odesa. It was one of the original war goals but I'm not sure how he comes to the conclusion that this is likely to ever occur now.

Use Russian troops stationed in Transnistria to attack Ukraine through to Odesa? A dumb move in a war full of dumb moves and a dumb war itself.

Budzilla
Oct 14, 2007

We can all learn from our past mistakes.

New Perun video is out. Ammunition shortages in Ukraine - production, supply, & are Russia or the West running dry? Another good video, the tldw; ammo supply is more of a political question of supplying Ukraine than actual production.

Budzilla
Oct 14, 2007

We can all learn from our past mistakes.

Also something interesting popped up that was lost with all the AFV news.

quote:

The package will for the first time include radar-guided Sea Sparrow anti-air missiles, which can be launched from the sea or on land to intercept aircraft or cruise missiles. In a bit of battlefield innovation, the Ukrainian military has managed to tweak its existing Soviet-era BUK launchers to fire the Sea Sparrow, two people familiar with the matter said. Up to this point, Taiwan has been the only country to operate the ground-launched version of the missiles, while the U.S. and multiple allied navies use the ship-mounted version.
AIM-7 was the precursor to the AIM-120 AMRAAM missile and the Sea Sparrow, RIM-7 was developed from the AIM-7. I wonder how it is compatible with a BUK launcher though? Good for Ukraine though.

Budzilla
Oct 14, 2007

We can all learn from our past mistakes.

Nenonen posted:

Just imagine having Vova as your boss. "Hey I just bombed our subcontractor, how are you going to replace them on supply chain? Stop making excuses, get it done NOW! Or do you want to leave through the window? You dumb fucker, I'm gonna release this call!"
It's pretty amazing with the trickle of fixed wing aircraft being produced in Russia since the fall of the SU that Putin hasn't realised that building planes is very hard.

Budzilla
Oct 14, 2007

We can all learn from our past mistakes.

Charliegrs posted:

Oh man I bet western Intel agencies can't wait to find out how they fare against Javelins
It will just be abandoned and shipped off to the nearest DARPA base.

Budzilla
Oct 14, 2007

We can all learn from our past mistakes.

mlmp08 posted:

But more that Germany is considered a reliable supplier, but a supplier who requires permission before you proliferate their weapons to countries or organizations they never agreed to arm. So if you are buying for your defense, fine. If you are buying and want to sell or transfer the weapons later, there are easier suppliers than buying from Germany.
This would be fine in itself but we are almost one year into the largest land war in Europe since WW2 that is almost universally condemned. The kicking and screaming from German leadership to allow the transfer of Leo2 tanks will make future customers look elsewhere for their weapons.

Budzilla
Oct 14, 2007

We can all learn from our past mistakes.

Vincent Van Goatse posted:

Brother can you spare a citation for any of this?
I couldn't find anything about a UN study on the most corrupt nations let alone Ukraine ranked number 4. It not exactly a secret that Ukraine has major corruption problems, it is probably the most corrupt country in Europe but it wouldn't rank in the top 10 by a long shot.

Budzilla
Oct 14, 2007

We can all learn from our past mistakes.

cinci zoo sniper posted:

Small housekeeping update for the thread – I have resigned from being a D&D moderator.

With your free time you should watch a few Perun videos.

Budzilla
Oct 14, 2007

We can all learn from our past mistakes.

Sir John Falstaff posted:

It's in there (auto-translated)--it's paywalled, though:

Obviously, very unclear who the "two German MPs" are, assuming that's a reasonably accurate translation.

I call BS. Allowing Russia to threaten to take territory and giving it away in a "negotiated" settlement to avoid a war would be a disaster for the US and everyone else in Eastern Europe. I don't think much of Biden but he was on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee for a bazillion years even he can see the problem of buckling under pressure to allow Russia/Putin to annex more land from Ukraine. It could be true but I personally think this makes no sense.

Budzilla
Oct 14, 2007

We can all learn from our past mistakes.

Electric Wrigglies posted:

Himars has been really effective but all the chat about it seems to ignore the fact that it is a glorified Smerch with a precision kit on it on the back of a Studbaker. While US doing the targeting is a big factor, surely Russia can rectify the huge mistake in war planning in not developing a cheap precision kit for 300 mm rockets that they already have in large numbers?
HIMARS has a few other things going for it. First of all it doesn't require a support vehicle to reload its rockets. It does this with its own crane by loading a new "magazine" of rockets. This makes reloading the HIMARS complete in less than 5 minutes when compared to the Smerch that takes ~35 minutes. This is excellent since you can leave a magazine of rockets on a predetermined path for the HIMARS vehicle to pick up, fire and move to the next position without worrying if the support vehicle will be there.

Budzilla
Oct 14, 2007

We can all learn from our past mistakes.

Antigravitas posted:

The war is pretty annoying for China on a whole range of issues.
It doesn't help that part of the BRI was to have more rail connections through Russia to European countries/consumers and now rely more on alternative routes since the invasion started.

Budzilla
Oct 14, 2007

We can all learn from our past mistakes.

Nenonen posted:

The goal was to have like a thousand T-14's operational by 2018 or so. As well as the rest of the whole Armata family of vehicles!¨

Instead T-62's have been brought to service.
Actually 2300 by the early 2020s. Production collapsed after the 2014, probably something to do with the sanctions applied.

Budzilla
Oct 14, 2007

We can all learn from our past mistakes.

Moon Slayer posted:

Speaking of materiel, the US isn't the Arsenal of Democracy it used to be.

I am not too sure the example of Stinger and Javelin missiles with artillery shells would be the best example. Stinger missiles are a legacy platform for the US and production was at a trickle since they are so old and demand was limited. Javelin missiles and 155mm shells are different though. The US in a time of major conflict would use these weapons but they were not heavily produced since they are not really part of the US' military doctrine of air dominance (artillery). Or armoured vehicles in the case of infantry anti-tank weapons and MANPADS.

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Budzilla
Oct 14, 2007

We can all learn from our past mistakes.

Countries in the pro-Russia camp could be a new market I suppose.

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