(Thread IKs:
skooma512)
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caelxii posted:What does 'no landing' mean? Like just letting inflation stay high and not moving rates? Is that the same as stagflation? someone compared it to boeing earlier. imagine the economy like a plane that needs to land. america has realized that number doesn't need to risk doing a landing, it can simply fly forever. praise be to number, may it always go up in its infinite wisdom.
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Apr 25, 2024 17:07
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Acelerion posted:Stagnation inflation station who could possibly have predicted that spending trillions of dollars on military spending overseas would be inflationary??? we have invested nothing in our local economy, why isnt it booming?
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Apr 25, 2024 17:07
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fits my needs posted:i've seen multiple articles in the news about old people getting scammed online out of their savings on the news. Between this and the guy who killed an Uber driver because of a scammer it’s like one big Black Mirror episode.
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Apr 25, 2024 17:07
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Mr Hootington posted:Those readings point at the plane heading towards a stagflation type scenario We’re now receiving reports that a second plane has hit the US economy
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Apr 25, 2024 17:08
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Mr Hootington posted:Those readings point at the plane heading towards a stagflation type scenario so the 3 key pieces of Stagflation are inflation, low growth, and high unemployment. according to official stats, the economy is growing and unemployment is low, despite above-target inflation but I guess I buy the stagflation argument since even though the official unemployment rate is at or near historical lows, it's a fully enshittified stat that doesn't reflect material reality
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Apr 25, 2024 17:10
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Mandel Brotset posted:soft landing is increasingly impossible to fathom, hard landing IS impossible because history ended in 1992, so the only conclusion is that there is no landing. 🎼 love me, I’m a liberal Okay, gotcha, it’s another fake pivot. They can’t fake the numbers hard enough to get inflation under control with the allowed tools, so no soft landing. And they can’t talk about a hard landing. So pivot to talking about no landing, just ignoring the whole point of the metaphor in the first place. Seems entirely on point for economists, just ignore things that they don’t like.
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Apr 25, 2024 17:11
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webcams for christ posted:so the 3 key pieces of Stagflation are inflation, low growth, and high unemployment. U-6's been stuck above 6% since 2022 and in the past 6 months has slowly started ticking up (at about 0.1% per month) e: tho to be fair it seems that U-6 has never gone below 6% since they restarted counting it in the 90s Raskolnikov38 has issued a correction as of 17:15 on Apr 25, 2024 |
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Apr 25, 2024 17:12
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the official stats that they juice and redefine as needed
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Apr 25, 2024 17:13
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Ardennes posted:but looks like high/er rates, higher inflation, and slowing growth. it would be wild if they raised rates again lol
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Apr 25, 2024 17:15
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Raskolnikov38 posted:U-6's been stuck above 6% since 2022 and in the past 6 months has slowly started ticking up (at about 0.1% per month) yeah, but it's not like, historically high. 
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Apr 25, 2024 17:15
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Stagflation in the 70s was the result of an effective capital strike where reinvestment/expansion was mothballed and replaced with temper tantrums about labor keeping too much of the pie. Way different than today. My own weakly reasoned thesis is that at some point many industries and sectors became very uncompetitive through consolidation/cartels and just...never realized until now that they have monopoly pricing power? Like a fledgling getting kicked out of the nest and realizing it actually has wings. Covid I guess broke the seal on that.
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Apr 25, 2024 17:15
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selec posted:friend working at Best Buy confirms again this morning that the willingness of retail employees to get yelled at by the elderly is basically the thin line between these same elderly people walking out with their money or walking out with 1200 dollars in Apple cards to get rich/get married One of the funniest parts of the story about that woman who handed $50k in a shoebox to a stranger was when she went to the bank the teller handed her a note saying "HEY YOU'RE PROBABLY GETTING SCAMMED!! MAYBE DON'T HAND YOUR MONEY TO A STRANGER BECAUSE A VOICE ON THE PHONE SAID TO" and she was like nah I'm good.
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Apr 25, 2024 17:18
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a hard/soft landing indicates they will get out of this crisis with lots or little pain. no landing means they will not get out of this crisis
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Apr 25, 2024 17:18
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stagflation was an overproduction crisis compounded by a currency crisis. by the 1970s all the economic slack provided by WW2's destruction was gone providing the stagnation and the collapse of bretton woods provided the inflation as the dollar refound its value after being kept artificially high since 1958
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Apr 25, 2024 17:19
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they fixed the internet, its good again https://twitter.com/Variety/status/1783528799360967021
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Apr 25, 2024 17:22
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Acelerion posted:Stagflation in the 70s was the result of an effective capital strike where reinvestment/expansion was mothballed and replaced with temper tantrums about labor keeping too much of the pie. Way different than today. My own weekly reasoned thesis is that at some point many industries and sectors became very uncompetitive through consolidation/cartels and just...never realized until now that they have monopoly pricing power? Like a fledgling getting kicked out of the nest and realizing it actually has wings. Covid I guess broke the seal on that. I think a significant and probably underestimated part of this is that newly-minted monopolies in the tech sector got massive un-earned revenue growth in 2020-2022 when lots of people were at home, but then that growth died back in mid/late 2022 and cratered profitability when the investments they made (in IT infrastructure, in home delivery infrastructure, etc.) start going idle due to lack of demand. Then, when their boards started pushing them to fix profitability, fastly, they realized that there was a lot of rent money sitting on the table and they're squeezing harder and harder.
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Apr 25, 2024 17:23
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Yeah, it isn't at historical highs, but u-6 ticking up isn't a great sign especially if it continues to go in the same direction. No landing basically means the US is going to be stuck for the duration, it is just a recession/near may happen, and the Fed may not even be able to lower rates. The point of the Fed is to keep the USD up, everything else is secondary.
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Apr 25, 2024 17:23
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https://www.lisep.org/tru This organization apparently uses a much more complete method of tracking unemployment they have all their methodology etc there as well.
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Apr 25, 2024 17:25
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Flavahbeast posted:they fixed the internet, its good again For like eight months lol
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Apr 25, 2024 17:26
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quote:Using data compiled by the federal government’s Bureau of Labor Statistics, the True Rate of Unemployment tracks the percentage of the U.S. labor force that does not have a full-time job (35+ hours a week) but wants one, has no job, or does not earn a living wage, conservatively pegged at $25,000 annually before taxes. This seems like a decent measures depending on how they calculate that annual amount.
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Apr 25, 2024 17:31
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euphronius posted:“nothing will change until a political change” has been clear for awhile I think I think this is a huge part of why 99% of news stories don’t really matter and a shitload of people are doompilled. does event x have a chance of blowing up the status quo? no? so I’ll have to continue to witness the endless procession of horrors? great, next.
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Apr 25, 2024 17:32
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Raskolnikov38 posted:U-6's been stuck above 6% since 2022 and in the past 6 months has slowly started ticking up (at about 0.1% per month) even if it stays the same the raw number of people has gone up drastically I also don't trust the percentage either because the economy is run by idiots and assume it's notably higher in reality
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Apr 25, 2024 17:37
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Ardennes posted:This seems like a decent measures depending on how they calculate that annual amount. How the gently caress would $26,000 a year be a living wage. Rent alone is going to eat up most or all of that.
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Apr 25, 2024 17:39
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real unemployment is probably in the 15-20% range. if you include the gig economy we've turned into, it's probably a third. a lot of people do not work or cannot find work
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Apr 25, 2024 17:39
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why were we even trying to land the plane .
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Apr 25, 2024 17:39
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triple sulk posted:real unemployment is probably in the 15-20% range. if you include the gig economy we've turned into, it's probably a third. a lot of people do not work or cannot find work and real inflation is probably 7% or more stagflation baby
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Apr 25, 2024 17:40
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euphronius posted:why were we even trying to land the plane . Better to land before the door falls off imo
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Apr 25, 2024 17:40
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real inflation is prob closer to like 15-20% just off food and rent alone
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Apr 25, 2024 17:41
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euphronius posted:and real inflation is probably 7% or more a rita's soft serve with sprinkles is close to $7.50
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Apr 25, 2024 17:41
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Morbus posted:How the gently caress would $26,000 a year be a living wage. Rent alone is going to eat up most or all of that. Yeah, it is way too low I think even considering regional differentiation. There are "jobs" out there and people are working, they are just being paid crap or are contractors who are barely getting more out than they put in. Also, yeah as far as functional expenses of what people need to live, it is certainly not being fully presented by the CPI either. Basically, their metrics don't really care much of what is going on, and even when they start to do so, they ignore them.
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Apr 25, 2024 17:43
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I got a medium !! Oreo blizzard yesterday for $6.25 it’s comical
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Apr 25, 2024 17:43
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euphronius posted:I got a medium !! Oreo blizzard yesterday for $6.25 It still doesn't compete with Cold Stone, you can get into the $9-13 range with a medium cone and some toppings. Just keep on driving your car in circles Ubering and you may get an iced cream at the end.
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Apr 25, 2024 17:46
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Flavahbeast posted:they fixed the internet, its good again Sure are a lot of Actually Good regulatory changes lately. Must be an election year 
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Apr 25, 2024 17:46
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I'm interviewing for a contract role and being brewdogged. My hands are tied lest I want the opportunity completely gone and still I will probably not get an offer. Great economy
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Apr 25, 2024 17:48
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Gunshow Poophole posted:aha, see poors, your rent didn't "go up by 15% since last year" it merely "upwardly adjusted to higher levels" as these inflation numbers clearly show, the upward adjustment is indeed quite stable
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Apr 25, 2024 17:48
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euphronius posted:why were we even trying to land the plane . Especially when Jpow can print economic jet fuel on demand. We're sky high forever, baby!
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Apr 25, 2024 17:50
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triple sulk posted:I'm interviewing for a contract role and being brewdogged. My hands are tied lest I want the opportunity completely gone and still I will probably not get an offer. Great economy It is just a little light slavery.
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Apr 25, 2024 17:50
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SKULL.GIF posted:Why come out and say this ... ? she wearing like 8 different t-shirts prompting questions already answered by the shirts
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Apr 25, 2024 17:54
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fits my needs posted:i've seen multiple articles in the news about old people getting scammed online out of their savings on the news. christ.
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Apr 25, 2024 17:55
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 Just incredible
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Apr 25, 2024 18:00
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