(Thread IKs:
fatherboxx)
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I love how every reply to this in that thread is "Oh come on, Calibre, this is just a preview of 3-6 months from now".
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Apr 1, 2023 20:30
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aphid_licker posted:Is 7.62x39 really still used? 54R I can see in old MGs but the OG AK-47 hasn't been in use for a looking time afaik It's definitely getting used. Just because the Wikipedia article says an armed force is using a standardized caliber doesn't mean it's actually happening, especially in Eastern Europe. There's so many AKs in reserve that it's hard not to see someone using them on a regular basis. Maybe it's militias or other irregulars, but it could also be various ad hoc units in the UAF.
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Apr 5, 2023 12:20
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Athas posted:I remember in the early days of the war, there were lots of reports (and videos) of TOS-1 rocket launchers in use. I don't see that so much anymore. Is it because it's now old and boring, that they're not useful in the current stage of the war, or that most of the rockets are spent? They were shock artillery units, largely meant to conduct terror attacks on civilian centers, but they had a horribly short range for artillery: the TOS-1 had an effective range of 3km. For comparison, the man-portable Javelin guided anti-tank missile has a effective range of 4km.
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Apr 9, 2023 10:15
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Nenonen posted:That was always a myth, tbh. It was apparently popularised in the 1970 film Patton where it was claimed that German tanks ran on diesel and American tanks on gasoline, which made them prone to catch fire. Also, just from watching a lot of Warsaw Pact tanks brew up in Syria, it's the gas fire that starts the ammo explosion, because a lot of those tanks ran their fuel lines around the turret ring. They would catch fire when hit, then the fire spreads to the ammo carousel just under the turret ring, and suddenly the turret is airborne.
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Apr 16, 2023 16:00
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Roller Coast Guard posted:I'm no expert, but you'd think that directly above a densely populated city was a bad choice of location to be releasing glide bombs. Probably no choice now. There using tactics that worked with the cruise missiles, but they're short now on the missiles, but haven't changed their tactics to adapt for the shorter ranges of the glide bombs. It either means they have to cross into Ukrainian air space to drop bombs or we'll be seeing more and more Russian cities being bombed by accident from the Russian air force.
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Apr 22, 2023 22:34
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kemikalkadet posted:It's pretty easy to plan weapon releases so they're not done directly over population centres, it's not a question of glide bombs vs. cruise missiles. If a cruise missile was launched and the motor failed it would fall in a similar way to the failed glide bombs over Belgorod i.e. pretty much straight down. If they launched from a few miles east or west they'd be over minor towns/villages and the chances of hitting them are much lower vs. it landing in a field. These glide bombs landed right in central Belgorod from what I can tell which points to very careless mission planning. Then it raises questions why they don't release a few miles west. Like, does the Russian air force have that large of doubts about their own air defense? These glide bombs have an operational range of 30 miles, maybe 50 miles?! Looking at that, it's definitely more of a risk than shooting off cruise missiles from the Urals, given that Kharkiv is about 30 miles away from the Russian border. They're releasing around Belgorod at the absolute extreme range of those bombs to avoid Ukrainian air defense.
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Apr 23, 2023 14:31
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Comstar posted:Attacking south may actually cause this to be a problem- if the only Russian line of retreat is south towards the Crimea it will be all to easy to create a bottleneck and force the retreating Mobiks to stand and fight. Just based off tactics NATO has impart onto the Ukrainians and previous examples in the first half of the war, if the Russians get bottlenecked, they're not going to stand and fight, they're going to stand and die: It's been NATO operating procedure, even before NATO to the Allies in WW2, to force the enemy to concentrate units, be it in pockets (the Falaise pocket in WW2) or bottlenecks (the hypothetical Fulda Gap or the very real Highway of Death in Iraq), so they're unable to maneuver and burn fuel in traffic jams, then beat the poo poo out of them with artillery and air power. NATO has donated the Ukrainians stuff like the HIMARS, which is renowned for it's long range precision warheads, but they were also provided M30A1 dual-purpose munitions, which peppers both infantry and light vehicles with 180,000 tungsten darts, like a shotgun. We know that the Ukrainians have used the Rasputina to keep the Russians on vulnerable roads, and the Bayraktar drones to destroy choice clusters of logistics vehicles. As the better and more powerful weapons have become available to them, the more opportunities to cluster the Russians and shoot for complete destruction on their battle groups.
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Apr 25, 2023 03:56
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Willo567 posted:https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1651183960016257026 They took forever to finally take Bakhmut, so I'm certain that Wagner and the mobiks are at their breaking point, exhausted countless tons of ammo, fuel, and lives to take an insignificant city. Edit: WHAT THE HELL THEY STILL HAVEN'T TAKEN BAKHMUT?! I'm still seeing news reports that Ukraine is still holding it?!
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Apr 26, 2023 18:54
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Ynglaur posted:Literally something we train on with tank main guns, autocannons on Bradleys, and Tow missiles. Helicopters don't even need to be stationary. Yeah, the U.S. has the M830A1 multi-purpose high-explosive anti-tank round in it's 120mm ammunition inventory, largely meant for fortifications, buildings, and light vehicles. But it has a proximity fuse for engaging helicopters. 
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Apr 27, 2023 04:17
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FuturePastNow posted:Not much damage but it certainly delivers a message. If it was the Ukrainians, they should have done a drone strike on Putin's mansion near Sochi. That would really make sure he gets the message.
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May 3, 2023 14:24
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Dwesa posted:Another confirmation by commander Ukraine MoD more or less confirm the shootdown. https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1654762067117711360?s=20 So, the latest* and vaunted Kinzhal hypersonic missile got dusted by a 40 year old weapons platform. Feels like this will be a turning point since Russia is in short supply of these missiles already and they will need to absolutely swarm these missiles more than usual to defeat an already increasingly tighter air defense network. *technically the Kinzhal is just the terminal stage of the Iskander, which existed 10 years prior. Nenonen posted:Oh okay, now Prigozhin is writing in a published letter to Shoigu to transfer the front responsibility in Bakhmut from Wagner to Kadyrovites before May 10th 00.00 hours. Yeah, Prigozhin has basically failed, he's currently in an untenable position in Bakhmut and there's a counteroffensive on the horizon that will probably end with him dead or captured by the Ukrainians. I don't think Kadyrov's forces can get their in time to reinforce their position or patch the hole in the lines, so a retreat sounds like it could be devastating to the Russians.
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May 6, 2023 22:06
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Rust Martialis posted:A few thoughts: The issue with 'launch more' is that they've rapidly depleted their stocks to the point they can't do that. Also, I don't think these things have a great CEP (circular error probability, i.e. how the military measures accuracy): they don't seem to have any real control surfaces and they're moving so fast they can't make any quick course corrections. I have often thought that Ukraine's ultimate protection against these things would be barrage balloons, like how London was protected against V1s during the Blitz. Edit: also, one of the big things against the Russians and their Kinzhalis is that the Ukrainians have a fresh supply line of Patriots compared to dwindling stocks of S-300s and Soviet-era SAMs. Young Freud fucked around with this message at 15:34 on May 7, 2023 |
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May 7, 2023 15:31
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MikeC posted:How practical is trying to support friendly squads 300m away though with the equipment carried by infantrymen? Can people regularly see 300m out much less spot guys moving around trying not to be seen? I have seen a lot of combat footage in Ukraine and it seems they might not see past 150m in many directions from what they show on their cameras. I produced this handy infographic to illustrate how large a 1.8 meter human being appears at certain ranges.  Of course, things like cover, camouflage, and environmental conditions like smoke or fog will effect how well you see someone at these distances: I remember that the big thing about tiger stripe camo in Vietnam was that it helped conceal around 50m and beyond from contact in jungle terrain.
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May 9, 2023 05:19
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Libluini posted:
And how long did it take for Wagner and the Russians to take that? And how many men did they lose. Bakhmut is going to be told in the same tone as Stalingrad: an almost impossible battle that turned around for the defenders and the war.
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May 10, 2023 15:04
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It's apparently easy enough to find military radars, you can find them with publicly-available satellite data off of the interference bands they create. Speaking of which... https://twitter.com/bradyafr/status/1655214652630892545?s=20
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May 13, 2023 03:49
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Lum_ posted:prigozhin can have a little treason, as a treat He knows he can't go back to Moscow, so it's to be expected. Of course, how does he know that the HUR would even honor their part of the deal? They could extract all the information they needed and then hold him for the rest of the war as a VIP POW then turn him over to the Hague whenever it was convenient.
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May 15, 2023 03:42
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Looking like more evidence of an Kinzhal interception among tonight's barrage. https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1658291162354941956?s=20
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May 16, 2023 03:29
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Grain of salt from the UkrAF PR department, but they're claiming that all missiles intercepted in last night's attack, including 6 Kinzhal hypersonic missiles. https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1658347188819312642?t=lxsSfWFhEJXj2ijQ1-sbAA&s=19 If true, looking like the Kinzhal's hype is being deflated in real time.
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May 16, 2023 13:44
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spankmeister posted:Yeah to clarify, they gave up their last footholds in the city itself, but are continuing making gains on the flanks. There's no real reason to keep forces there when they're making a pocket out of Bakhmut. It makes me wonder if there's any civilians left there because it's going to give the UkrAF some... tactical flexibility when it comes to what happens with the pocket.
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May 20, 2023 13:34
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Nenonen posted:If I learned that Lavrov's family was celebrating in a resort nearby, I think I would get quite irate, and creative. Like maybe rent a digger and accidentally cut electricity and water to the place. Consequences, schmonsequences! I was listening to the "Helluva A Way To Die" podcast and Joe Kassabian lives in Armenia and frequently goes to Georgia and he was going on about how both countries are filled with "visiting" Russians right now and the public is getting tired of them, especially Georgia, for all the reasons you could imagine. I have no loving idea why Lavrov's next of kin would visit this place when they could have just stayed in Russia.
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May 21, 2023 19:44
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alex314 posted:It would get nasty real fast. Law Enforcement would be asked to provide steady supply of able bodies. Feel like sending accused foreign spies to the front lines is a bit detrimental.
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May 21, 2023 22:55
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Chalks posted:https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1660665662250041347 Also of note, Grayvoron is something like 10-20km from the Belgorod-22 tactical nuclear weapons depot.
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May 22, 2023 17:29
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Cpt_Obvious posted:You can't just grab a tactical nuke and shove it in your humvee. IIRC, the tactical nuclear weapons at Belgorod-22 were nuclear 203mm artillery and 240mm mortar shells for the 2S7 SP howitzer and 2S4 SP mortar. They'd be a two-three person lift since they weigh over 100kg, but you could throw them in the back of a truck like the Humvee.
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May 25, 2023 18:35
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Krasnodar, Russia, just got drone striked with something similar to the Shaheds. Somewhat notable since Krasnodar is on the other side of Crimea.
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May 26, 2023 04:14
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fatherboxx posted:Well, this is unexpected Russia getting a taste of their own "Little Green Men" tactic. They should have known that the West could do this much better than they could.
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Jun 4, 2023 16:36
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Willo567 posted:Has this been seen or discussed anywhere? I think that Russian volunteers news have largely been overshadowed by the tragedy in Kherson and the wait over the counteroffensive. The general consensus is that it's a distraction, since they are not holding terrain, at least officially.
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Jun 7, 2023 22:12
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Surprisingly, not a Trent Telenko thread about tires, but apparently Russia got Chinese tires for various military vehicles, to predictable results... https://twitter.com/CovertGoat/status/1666939225252536325?s=20
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Jun 8, 2023 23:58
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OAquinas posted:We know there are at least 3 salients/fronts/axes of action. We know that Ukraine has penetrated several KM in each one and has liberated a few towns and is poised to engage some larger cities. Yeah, they're pushing all along the front, making incremental gains along it, but the Tokmak axis seems to be getting the most pressure and most depth.
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Jun 9, 2023 16:47
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Deltasquid posted:A question re: modern fortifications, I feel like a lot of footage coming out of this war shows trenches that resemble moreso deep ditches than anything resembling bunkers or more connected trench systems. Is there a reason for that other than “shoddily and hastily thrown together at the frontline”? If Ukrainian forces push through a line like this tweet suggests: A lot of these fortifications are probably mine fields.
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Jun 11, 2023 02:05
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https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1668922195777581057?t=D0EW8m1TSs6DIek59vrEEQ&s=19 Supposedly, there was a large concentration of Russian forces that got caught in a combined HIMARS and artillery attack and Delimkhanov might have been in that clusterfuck.
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Jun 14, 2023 13:17
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MeinPanzer posted:Anyone have any good sources of info on the current offensive? Last year I got all of my updates through this thread, but it seems like it’s mostly just discussions of weapons systems and more tangential stuff these days… I’m learning about the incremental gains mostly through mainstream news sites now. Andrew Perpetua recently produced a daily update map, showing line changes and when. You can find the link in this tweet. https://twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1670274241835483137?s=20
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Jun 18, 2023 17:46
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Moon Slayer posted:What's it called when a group doesn't overthrow the government but just overthrow a ministry? A sub-coup? What makes you think Prigozhin would stop at Gerasimov and Shoigu? If he takes on the military and wins, he can just isolate Putin further to a unannounced house arrest and tell everyone he's interpreting his orders. Coups against one part of the government tend to end up with all parts of the government.
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Jun 23, 2023 22:47
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There's videos popping off on Telegram of military equipment in Moscow and other cities... https://twitter.com/faineg/status/1672358741390270466?s=20 https://twitter.com/faineg/status/1672355261124599811?s=20 https://twitter.com/faineg/status/1672344761129222145?s=20 Meanwhile, the Russian Volunteer Corps saluting Prigozhin's attempt to overthrow the government. https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1672341618286788611?s=20 Hey, remember way back when Prigozhin reached out to Ukraine intelligence and offered detailed information on Russian military positions in exchange for amnesty? I know officially Zelensky rejected that offer but one can't be certain that they didn't give him a counteroffer.
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Jun 23, 2023 23:06
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MegaZeroX posted:State TV has started their broadcast, apparently began by calling Prigozhin's video a fake So, it's definitely on. Boris Galerkin posted:Is this stuff happening in "real time" or are all these tweets just catching up? As of this post it's 6:37pm in New York and 1:37am in Moscow. Seems late to be happening in real time but what do I know I've never planned or attempted a coup before. I think the idea is you want your coups to happen in the middle of the night to minimize casualties and interference. The Turkey coup in 2016 started at 11:00pm, with the jets being scrambled and buzzing Ankara while attack helicopters began bombing police stations. By midnight, the military had started seizing key intersections and buildings. Young Freud fucked around with this message at 23:45 on Jun 23, 2023 |
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Jun 23, 2023 23:39
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Even in the middle of a coup, Russia can't help but bomb. https://twitter.com/IrynaVoichuk/status/1672375967203971076?s=20 Edit: Wagner Telegram channel is showing video of an army convoy full of military police heading toward MoD. Since it's Wagner, not sure if they're implying it's them or just the regular army. https://twitter.com/faineg/status/1672376524127850501?s=20 Young Freud fucked around with this message at 00:01 on Jun 24, 2023 |
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Jun 23, 2023 23:57
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acidx posted:This is a military checkpoint they are driving through lol. So, either Wagner took the checkpoint or the Rosgvardia isn't stopping them. Neither bode well for the Russian establishment. RockWhisperer posted:Where is Kadyrov in all this? I imagine he might have the most to gain in all of this. I'd imagine staying home and making sure Chechnya is still secure. Because if Russia is about to go through some stuff, his own position might be tenable.
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Jun 24, 2023 02:35
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ummel posted:Can a tank even make the whole trip to Moscow from Rostov, etc. without refueling? Seems like a long distance to travel. There's plenty of fuel in Rostov-On-Don and along the way.
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Jun 24, 2023 03:07
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Men with a mix of equipment are taking positions outside the MoD building in Rostov. https://twitter.com/CalibreObscura/status/1672427174651998208?s=20
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Jun 24, 2023 03:16
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Willo567 posted:Realistically, how likely is this coup to actually succeed if Wagner really is in Rostov? Things like this poo poo start growing like a wildfire. With more and more of Prigozhin's reality becoming concrete with these military movements and not just on the internet, people begin to reevaluate where they are and begin to join in. As for Rostov, Rostov is a major, maybe the most critical, logistics hub for the war against Ukraine, since it not only supplies both the Donbass republics, but also the southern front via Crimea. I'd imagine if there's fighting there or a mutiny among the RUAF and the Rosgvardia, then things will breakdown fairly quickly.
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Jun 24, 2023 03:27
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| # ¿ May 18, 2024 00:29 |
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KillHour posted:Man, they weren't kidding about being poorly outfitted with gear. Just I had to double-take when I first saw that, because these guys look like airsofters in their mixed gear. Some have steel helmet, some have Western-like kevlar, there's the guy in the blue t-shirt. These have to be Wagner guys.
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Jun 24, 2023 03:31
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