(Thread IKs:
fatherboxx)
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Dammit you actually got me.
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Apr 1, 2023 18:16
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Jeza posted:Is there any basis for the repeated statement in this thread that the UXO issue with cluster munitions is a distraction the situation can't get any worse? I believe the basis for that statement stems from the fact that Russia is also using cluster munitions, and mines, not just conventional artillery, everywhere. So if you salt the earth, whats a little more salt gonna do? You could narrow it down and ask if Ukraine is planning on using cluster munitions only in areas where Russia has done the same, but good luck getting the Ukrainian MOD to tell you that. Also, it seems that posters who are concerned about UXO don't seem to accept that Ukraine has the capability to tell its citizens not to go into dangerous areas, would that not reduce civilian casualties? Nor do they seem to be willing to put the responsibility on Russia for their own creation of UXO within Ukraine. Last I heard, their dud rates for cluster munitions were significantly worse than western dud rates. Then it seems to boil down to being unable to come up with an estimate for lives lost due to Ukraine launched UXO vs lives lost due to Ukraine lacking weapons to remove a genocidal invader who is also dropping UXO indiscriminately. Both of which are unfortunately within the realm of predicting the future, which we cannot do, so we will argue about it endlessly.
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Jul 9, 2023 22:23
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Telsa Cola posted:Public information/safety campaigns do help but no public information campaign is going to have a 100% saturation rate, you are always going to have people who ignore it (kids) and or people who are just not aware or care. Certainly! No public awareness campaign will be perfect, no law will be followed by everyone, people are fallible. You could also use your quote and make it about gun ownership safety, and how people will still harm themselves or others. Yet we didn't see any concern posts/articles about the sudden influx of guns to Ukraine and their danger to the citizenry. I guess this incongruency is just one of the things that makes it hard for me to take concerns in the same vein over UXO seriously. Slightly related: Is there any recent peer conflict within say... the last 10-15 years that has put out as much UXO as this conflict? Or provided the opportunity to clear out a looot of UXO? I ask because I wonder if improvements in production/manufacturing means more recent UXO is easier to detect/dispose of compared to say, the stuff that the US covered Laos with. If all someone reads about is that kinda stuff, that could also explain some people's concern over UXO
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Jul 9, 2023 23:11
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Telsa Cola posted:Also, I'd wager that, at least in some cases, the improvements in material technology and production since Vietnam has made detecting UXO more difficult with increased usage of non-metal parts and such. Oof yeah, good point. Let's hope those alternate ways of detecting ordinance have improved.
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Jul 10, 2023 00:30
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Libluini posted:So with this additional battery, Ukraine should have four full Patriots and two full Iris-T systems for defense in Winter. What kind of actual area coverage can these systems provide? Is it like 1 system per metropolis? Larger? Only 6 systems seems rather low.
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Oct 5, 2023 18:49
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Henrik Zetterberg posted:I don’t have a tweet but Fox was reporting that Ukraine lost 2 planes to AA on that attack. AP News also says so https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-navy-ship-crimea-3d558083dcd765d8b9daccc461865b21 Which is unfortunate, as I'm not sure two planes was a great trade. Either way, the rest of the world needs to get off their asses and send more aid.
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Dec 26, 2023 19:07
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WarpedLichen posted:Not saying this is impossible, but if the Russian MOD is the source of those statements Nenonen posted:Please notice the source D'oh, that'll teach me to read AP articles before I've gotten out of bed, appreciate y'all pointing out the source of the claims.
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Dec 26, 2023 19:56
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https://www.newsweek.com/zoya-konovalova-putin-propagandist-state-tv-found-dead-russia-1858549 Head of Russian state-run propaganda TV found dead alongside ex-husband after mysterious ‘poisoning’. So while the battlelines aren't moving very quickly, there seems to be plenty of 'important' Russians dying. I can recall several killings going off that were highlighted in the news, (for example, that russian war blogger who got exploded via a gifted bust of himself, and a further list here https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suspicious_deaths_of_Russian_businesspeople_(2022%E2%80%932023) ) I'm not gonna say that Ukraine should or shouldn't do things like this, but one does wonder if assassinations like this one will increase, or even become a new expected norm in this war.
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Jan 10, 2024 20:57
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jaete posted:Hm, how much evidence is there about which of these killings are by Ukraine? Most of the oligarch murders for example seem obviously done by other Russian oligarchs (including Putin) In this case of the dead state-run tv channel lady... its true she could have been going against Putin, but I kinda doubt it? but yes, for sure there were killings Putin did to keep oligarchs in line.
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Jan 10, 2024 21:15
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Ynglaur posted:Remember when Russia poisoned Ukraine's president? Yeah, this war is going to have important people getting murked. I hadn't, but now I looked it up and have learned! Back in 2004... jesus, two decades ago. Qtotonibudinibudet posted:afaict she was basically the equivalent of an editor at a local ABC affiliate channel? she wasn't the head of _all of VGTRK_, she was an editor for their Kuban regional office. idk why Ukraine would care about her in particular Yeah I think this is a fair assessment, and I chose a bad example to frame my question off of. The death of that guy via a bust seems more directly an obvious assassination.
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Jan 11, 2024 06:21
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fatherboxx posted:I dont think Ukrainians would care enough to put valuable resources to off the lady in charge of a regional tv station from neither capital nor frontline region. Really? I would. Especially after seeing the level of wetwork they've already admitted to. The Antonovsky bridge (unwitting) suicide bombing, which at least had military applications. The near miss of Dugin via car bomb, which did kill his daughter. The SBU admitting they killed a traitor (Illia Kyva) politician who fled to Russia. I'm willing to bet that washed up former politician was about as 'important' to the war as said TV lady. And they realllly hate collaborators. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collaboration_with_Russia_during_the_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine#After_February_2022 The economist quotes some SBU figures who are uncomfortable with these 'marginal figures' being targets. https://www.economist.com/europe/2023/09/05/inside-ukraines-assassination-programme The Economist posted:But a subsequent string of operations targeting mid-level propagandists showed a trend that few of the insiders interviewed for this article were happy with. “These are marginal figures,” says one source in sbu counter-intelligence. “It makes me uncomfortable.” The former sbu fifth-directorate officer suggests the operations were designed to impress the president rather than bring victory any closer. “Clowns, prostitutes and jokers are a constant around the Russian government,” he says. “Kill one of them, and another will appear in their place.” With Ukraine getting less aid military aid, I absolutely see the SBU/GUR trying to be maximally destructive. Taking easy kills where they can, even if it doesn't change any battle lines.
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Jan 12, 2024 19:38
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Nenonen posted:The ones you mention are different, and for example Ilya Dugin was the intended target of the assassination that killed Darya Dugina but due to a change in plans he wasn't in the car. This to me seems to mean that yes, Ukraine would be willing to spend their limited clandestine resources on such acts.
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Jan 12, 2024 20:30
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Nenonen posted:There's no evidence or even a clear suggestion that Tatarsky was killed by Ukraine either. Why do you think that SBU in particular was involved in the assassination of a vocal critic of Russian army leadership who was speaking at a joint owned by Yevgeny Prigozhin? Instead of that being a message directed at Prigozhin himself? And how did they do it? Because while I don't doubt that there would be willingness to do it, it's another matter if it would be worth it to do such an elaborate operation to take out an utterly replaceable and, ultimately, useful media person. Alexander Dugin OTOH is a demagogue often attributed as influencing Putin's views and offing him would have had some symbolic value as a face of Russian imperialism. My apologies, I am now realizing I was thinking of Igor Mangushev, also an affiliate to Wagner, and present in agitprop campaigns who proudly displayed a human skull, claiming it to be a Ukrainian's and told the crowd he was gonna make a goblet out of it. He caught a bullet to the head, no fancy bust explosions.  https://www.thedailybeast.com/igor-mangushev-russian-mercenary-who-brandished-ukrainian-skull-shot-in-head But hey, Putin was offing Prigozhin guys then, so maybe that wasn't the SBU there either? Based on the location of the hit, Putin killed Prigozhin, no questions. If the SBU could shoot down/blow up a plane in the middle of Russia, I would hope they would have saved that capability for someone better than a failed coup leader. Unfortunately I also know Putin travels by armored train.
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Jan 12, 2024 22:35
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No one had "Kessler Syndrome" on their bingo list for 2024? e:f,b
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Jan 14, 2024 18:05
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Anti-Hero posted:Man, that's my birth year. Would be crazy to think 40 year old me would likely be conscripted if I was Ukrainian. Man, thats real fuckin' sobering.
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Jan 27, 2024 01:07
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At least post the article link! https://www.theguardian.com/world/2007/feb/08/usa.iraq1
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Feb 22, 2024 22:19
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https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/feb/26/denmark-drops-investigation-nord-stream-pipeline-blasts So Denmark is closing their investigation, citing a lack of evidence to pursue a criminal case. Sweden dropped their investigation earlier. Only Germany still continues theirs. Could this be a subtle attempt to let the question go unanswered, because the answer (that Ukraine did it) would be uncomfortable to reckon with? An actual lack of evidence would also lead to the closing of a case, I'm sure. I guess it just seems odd that all the investigations didn't wrap simultaneously, unless one country has some information they aren't sharing? To be clear, IF Ukraine did it, I can respect their reasons, but drat that would be a risky to potentially alienate one's allies.
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Feb 26, 2024 22:34
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spankmeister posted:It could. It also couldn't. In absence of any solid evidence we can only speculate. Yeah, you're right. Its a shame that leaving open the opportunity for speculation can still serve Russia's interests.
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Feb 26, 2024 22:41
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Macron Ready to Send Troops to Ukraine if Russia Approaches Kyiv or Odesa https://www.kyivpost.com/post/29194 Hmm, I wonder if Macron is feeling guilty for being so convinced he could negotiate with Putin to prevent the war that now he's willing to say things like this. Could be that the strategy is to inject more uncertainty about what 'the west' is willing to do to stop Russia now, after repeatedly reassuring Russia they wouldn't get more involved. Russia pushing on Kyiv or Odessa would certainly be quite a shift of battle lines.
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Mar 8, 2024 23:46
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Russian Intelligence Says France Preparing to Deploy 2,000 Troops to Ukraine https://www.kyivpost.com/post/29792 quote:Naryshkin (Direction of Russian Foreign Intelligence Service, SVR) said the information Russia has received indicates that France is preparing an initial force of 2,000 troops for the operation and that “such a large military unit cannot be transferred and stationed in Ukraine unnoticed. SOooooo... I see Russia is still ready to take on the entire world. Certainly aren't backing down in terms of their rhetoric, I wonder when/if French troops reach Ukraine what the actual response will be.
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Mar 20, 2024 19:31
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steinrokkan posted:If Russia is the only source saying this, it means nothing. Oh yeah, for sure. I think that this messaging combined with what France has recently said, gives us a peek at potential avenues for future responses. At the start of the war it seemed like most of the west was on a 'woah woah calm down lets talk this out' kick. Now it seems they're a bit more willing to (at least) talk publicly about committing their own troops. That is certainly not something anyone would have expected back in 2022. Could be that France's rhetoric is about building the consent of the French people into getting more involved militarily, and Russia is attempting to do the opposite, nothing more concrete than discourse shaping. That discourse shaping can have some significant effects for western countries and their abilities to assist Ukraine.
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Mar 20, 2024 20:35
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