(Thread IKs:
fatherboxx)
|
Tatarsky was not a reporter/journalist. Maybe propagandist would be an apt term? He was sanctioned by Ukraine, I cannot seem to find exactly when, so he was definitely known to them. ISW believes his death is a warning to other pro Kremlin 'bloggers', as a lot of them seem rather aggressive and extreme in wanting to wage war against Ukraine and its people. Curious as to the legality of such a attack. Based on what is reported of him saying and posting (have not read anything directly from him), I would say he is a 100% legitimate target in time of war.
|
#
¿
Apr 3, 2023 09:29
|
|
|
|
| # ¿ May 18, 2024 00:14 |
|
|
cinci zoo sniper posted:Pretty sure it's not legitimate to blow random by goers in a café, OP. Moreover, there are credible alternatives for the potential organizer of it. I would agree and hope that goes without saying, and I hope Ukrainian leadership knows that killing Russian civilians is not going to help their cause in the eyes of the West. I doubt the guy had any real security detail, so taking him out without harming others should not have been a problem, but someone obviously wanted to send a message.
|
|
#
¿
Apr 3, 2023 10:40
|
|
|
If/when Ukraine pushes to the Isthmus of Perekop and other cities along of the sea of Azov, it could be that the battle for Crimea would already be won. Though I think even at that point Sevastopol and the Kerch bridge would still be out of range of most Ukrainian ordnance, so I can see there being a political decision by the Russians not to abandon the peninsula. It will then be a very difficult decision for the Ukrainians to either risk pushing into Crimea or containing it, and that decision will probably be dictated on what is going on in other areas of the front. In regards to comparing the future coming battle of Crimea to past wars, currently neither side has those numbers in manpower and from what I know most of northern Crimea is open, flat, and wet. So holding fixed positions there will come at a price due to the amount of accurate long range firepower Ukraine can bring. However, if we believe what some other observers have said in that if Russia loses Crimea, then they lose the war. True or not, that is probably in the back of Putins head and I can see scenarios in which the Russians pile in men and material to make the peninsula effectively a poison frog for the Ukrainians.
|
|
#
¿
Apr 6, 2023 06:19
|
|
|
The real question is why would someone risk leaking Top Secret/Classified documents that are just calculated losses and a pretty looking month old situation report. Could someone be so stupid? Probably. But there is nothing spicy enough in there to risk going to jail for. Maybe if 4chan dude livestreams the FBI knocking down his doors we will know the true answer.
|
|
#
¿
Apr 7, 2023 05:15
|
|
|
Slashrat posted:This might be the larger point in making this statement; erasing any hope in Wagner's own troops of surrendering to Ukraine and forcing them to fight to the death instead. That is most likely the case. Fairly sure certain Japanese commanders in WW2 wrote about ordering their troops do brutal things to PoWs for that exact same reason, it is going to be even worse for us if we surrender kind of thing. It will be diffilcult for the Ukrainians to combat this, as in preventing their soldiers from responding in kind.
|
|
#
¿
Apr 24, 2023 07:37
|
|
|
Angry Planet just had an episode with the reporter who tracked down the ANG kid who released TS documents on discord. SomethingAwful gets mentioned, not in the best light though... They discuss a little about the tactical/strategic implications, but mostly about the why and how of the whole ordeal. https://shows.acast.com/warcollege/episodes/how-a-21-year-old-edgelord-stole-pentagon-secrets
|
|
#
¿
Apr 25, 2023 06:08
|
|
|
I would be suprised to see one large all out offensive by Ukraine. Instead, as we are probably seeing now, are probing attacks along the front to possibly either A. Find a gap and exploit it, and/or B. Keep the Russians off balance and guessing to where exactly that push will come. This approach could last most, if not all the summer.
|
|
#
¿
Apr 25, 2023 12:38
|
|
|
I am curious to why, since this kid seems so gung ho, he joined the ANG as a computer toucher.
|
|
#
¿
Apr 27, 2023 09:39
|
|
|
I remember similiar (if not the same) pictures showing up last year. While it is not ideal, having something other than the shirt off your back to pack a wound is preferable. Any videos of them being rolled out? Assuming it does not just disintegrate or is hard as a rock once taken out of the package, there will be a use for it.
|
|
#
¿
May 3, 2023 08:55
|
|
|
Could it be Wagner was ordered out, and Prigozhin is playing 'You cannot fire me, I quit!' card?
|
|
#
¿
May 5, 2023 09:23
|
|
|
Paladinus posted:If they are going to be punished for that, it's not going to be due process. The existence of Wagner is illegal and they are not directly subordinate to the official military command. There won't be any military courts for them if they start a mutiny, someone will just remember that they are a bunch of dangerous criminals with guns. I am going to take a guess and say that the Russian high command will try and avoid a mutiny by tens of thousands of armed men in the middle of their front line.
|
|
#
¿
May 5, 2023 13:57
|
|
|
I have been seeing an increase in Russians surrendering/captured videos. While this is probably in part due to an increase in operations tempo, I am curious to whether Russians are seeing as many similiar videos of Ukrainians surrendering.
|
|
#
¿
May 11, 2023 07:05
|
|
|
Because the limited number of Western MBTs and IFVs, if I was Ukraine I would use them in a Fleet in Being (not sure what this would be called for land force...) sort of strategy until it was absolutely neccessary or could change something in a strategic or operational manner. We should assume the Russians still have decent intel and are at least tracking some of the these vehicles, especially if being used or grouped in any large numbers. Therefore simply maneuver them where you want the Russias to think you are going to attack. Russia then has to make some tough decisions on positioning their own forces.
|
|
#
¿
May 12, 2023 08:45
|
|
|
The UK support for Ukraine is interesting. I know Russia has done some dumb things on UK soil in the past years, and combine that with the war it is understandable that the UK seems to be going whole heart against Russia. But we all know governments and nations do almost nothing out of the kindness of their hearts. Has the UK government or their MOD said much about who and/or how they are paying for all this support? Because there is only one other country that would be willing and able to pick up that bill.
|
|
#
¿
May 15, 2023 13:28
|
|
|
mmkay posted:Well at least finally Hungary will get along with EU. Had a good laugh at this one. Maybe Putin promised Orban all of the ancestoral lands in Ukraine that once belonged to Hungary. Otherwise it does seem like Orban (not sure how much your average Hungarian is on board with these actions) is cutting off the nose to spite the face kind of thing.
|
|
#
¿
May 16, 2023 13:12
|
|
|
Recon in force or advance until contact is unfortunately a neccessity. I would assume this is the intent of whomever is ordering such assaults, whether the Russians are doing so according to their doctrine is another question. There is also the factor that we are usually only seeing a small section of the battlefield, and that there could be other supporting elements a few hundred meters to their flanks.
|
|
#
¿
May 22, 2023 07:21
|
|
|
What does a failed Ukrainian counter offensive look like? Their forces cut off and destroyed? Not achieving their stated or unstated objectives? Outside of the most extreme cases in which a large percentage of Ukrainian forces or made combat ineffective, there will not be serious discussions of a ceasefire on their part. The risk of that happening though, is why I do not expect any sort of large scale or massed maneuvers by the Ukrainians any time soon. Instead we will see small elements try and make local gains or cut off local Russian forces, and maybe if they see something that would lead them to take that risk they will go for it. The Russians still have an air force and a lot of artillery, and I assume they still have mechanized/armored forces in reserve for such an occasion.
|
|
#
¿
May 24, 2023 07:22
|
|
|
The latter. Engineering vehicles are a big asset and you generally do not want to risk losing them.
|
|
#
¿
May 24, 2023 13:20
|
|
|
ChaseSP posted:This whole event forces Russia to take one of three options 1. Russia already mass mobilized in non-ethnic Russian areas. If they start another major wave, Russian kids who parents have the ability to complain will start being called up. 2. Russia seemingly responded well in pushing the force out or neutralizing it. But yes, letting a small mechanized force strole through your border with a country your at war with is kind of a no no. But properly defending their border with Ukraine is not going to cause any severe strains on their manpower. 3. This obviously will not happen. It is unlikely we see more of these type of raids anytime soon, for the reasons you stated.
|
|
#
¿
May 25, 2023 05:28
|
|
|
Comstar posted:I disagree - this was a test and it’s going to be happen again. It doubles the length they need to defend north of sea and it’s harder to move units back and forth. It was definitely a test. If the Ukrainians are smart they will use it when it really matters during their counter offensive. But like I said, I do not see more of these happening soon until the actual counter offensive starts. spankmeister posted:Really? By what measure? The attackers penetrated fairly deeply and it took the Russian authorities over a day to muster even a half assed response using riot police and other non-army troops. They lost a chopper full of troops and had to blow up their own bridge ffs. We do not know the objectives of said raid, but it was basically over the day it started. Have the Russians or Ukrainians released numbers on what the believe was destroyed/captured for either side? My assessment was that the Russians simply responded quickly (not exactly effectively), based off video evidence of them having mechanized forces and CAS strikes in the area. That however does not mean the raid was a failure, and the lack of any further info or discussion on the raid from both sides could be a sign that neither really came out looking good. fatherboxx posted:This gets repeated constantly but data does not support this The article mentions they do not have complete data, and though not always the case, minority areas = poor areas. ISW had a publication from September covering recruitment/mobilization somewhat . https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-25 And while they do not give exact numbers, it does show where new units are being/have been mobilized and that these new 'volunteer' units from what are most likely non ethnic Russians tend to be performing poorly. Most likely none of us have seen good intel on Russian mobilization numbers and most likely will not until this war is over, but if I had to choose between the Russian government being fair about recruitment/mobilizing throughout their populace vs basically press ganging their minority/poor/undesirable populations first, I will bet on the latter. Dick Ripple fucked around with this message at 08:08 on May 25, 2023 |
|
#
¿
May 25, 2023 07:52
|
|
|
fatherboxx posted:What is your point here? You claim about mass mobilization and post an article operating on pre mobilization data, talking about volunteer recruiting efforts prior to September 2022. We can extrapolate ISW's assessment/data/sources and use that to make an educated guess/vibe on that the Russians are continuing to heavily use the manpower in those areas. Outside of classified material, no one has factual data on what sort of numbers the Russians are pulling out, and instead I believe it is safe to assume they are still concentrating efforts in minority/poor regions. My original statement was Russia will not use the raid as a pretext to further mass mobilize, because that would anger those that Putins power base depends on, and instead continue to focus 'recruitment' efforts outside ethnically Russian regions. This is a guess, because unfortunately no one in the Kremlin has stated that this is what they are or will be doing. Dick Ripple fucked around with this message at 09:16 on May 25, 2023 |
|
#
¿
May 25, 2023 08:51
|
|
|
Modern War Insitute put out another worth listening to podcast on how the Russians are adapting in Ukraine. He talks with a senior research fellow at RUSI who has been spending a lot of time in Ukraine lately, and while a lot is discussed a striking point he mentions is how far off the narrative western media is getting from what is actually happening. Basically the Russians are (a little slowly) learning, adapting, and forcing the Ukrainians to constantly do so in kind. https://mwi.usma.edu/mwi-podcast-how-is-russia-adapting-its-tactics-in-ukraine/
|
|
#
¿
Jun 2, 2023 07:03
|
|
|
BBC reported a large Ukrainian forced being repelled, the source is the Russian defence ministry. Anyone else seeing more reliable sources mentioning anything about this? https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65806152
|
|
#
¿
Jun 5, 2023 04:45
|
|
|
Read the latest RUSI report on how Russians are adapting. They bring up tanks/armored and mention that the Russians have largely improved upon not getting blow up by Ukrainian AT teams and in fact are giving them a hell of time. The main factor is them using distance + thermal camo. Unfortunately Russian infantry/Wagner do not get that luxury.
|
|
#
¿
Jun 9, 2023 15:27
|
|
|
While we will not know until this war is over, I would not doubt that Russian commanders have orders to leave nothing behind that the Ukrainians can use if they have to fall back. So mining and booby trapping everything would be in order, and since we know Russian comms are in part comprimised there is also a good chance Ukraine knows that. Dick Ripple fucked around with this message at 06:59 on Jun 13, 2023 |
|
#
¿
Jun 13, 2023 06:57
|
|
|
Hannibal Rex posted:https://www.n-tv.de/politik/Fuer-die-Ukraine-ist-die-Situation-ausserordentlich-prekaer-article24185276.html Reisner has been fairly spot on with his assessments this entire war. I have also noticed a lack of smoke screens / supportive artillery fire in most of the videos of Ukrainians armored being on the receiving end. It could be because of a lack of munitions, but I would wager they were just as likely caught off guard/ambushed in those scenarios. The lack of attached organic mid/long range AA is going to be a problem, and will likely force them to bring up some SAM systems closer to the front.
|
|
#
¿
Jun 14, 2023 05:51
|
|
|
Ynglaur posted:I'm not sure how much credibility I'd give a new organization who doesn't report the number of units prepared that is anywhere close to what many, many other analysts have reported. Maybe they're referring only to Western-trained battalions, which might be around a dozen? I've seen some estimates that Ukraine has over 30 brigades prepared for this, albeit many are mobilized light infantry or motorized infantry. I think at least 6 brigades have Western IFVs/APCs and/or tanks. Thomas Theiner on Twitter had a pretty good breakdown a few weeks ago. I heard 9 Brigades with Western equipment a few days ago, but do not put it past a reporter/editor getting brigades and battalions mixed up.
|
|
#
¿
Jun 21, 2023 05:38
|
|
|
Probably the best assessment I have heard regarding events of the past few days. https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/geopolitics-decanted-by-silverado/id1614010500 Dmitri presses the point that it was a mutiny, not coup. Prigozhin had no intention of overthrowing or replacing Putin, and that saving Wagner (and himself) was the goal. He says Putin was forced to make a deal with Prigozhin mainly because the Russian Army was either unwilling or unable to stop him, and letting Wagner roll on through Moscow was not something Putin was willing to let happen.
|
|
#
¿
Jun 26, 2023 10:11
|
|
|
Eric Cantonese posted:
I guess the silver lining would be none of these were unforseen problems. I wonder who was telling them Ukraine is having problems with combined arms/organizing attacks, the NCOs or brigade level commanders? Like others have said, it is a big challenge for any military and in time of war the cost of learning is blood. I hope this puts more pressure on the West to supply/train Ukraine with more AA, SEAD, and some drat fighter jets as it seems they cannot even gain local air superiority and that is a big reason why your combined arms is not working.
|
|
#
¿
Jul 19, 2023 05:01
|
|
|
I think more apt would be to look at the many WW2 breaching operations, mainly on the Eastern front, but the US had some rough ones in France particulary around Nancy. It is also telling that a good portion of these battles contain 'meatgrinder' in their descriptions.
|
|
#
¿
Jul 19, 2023 06:49
|
|
|
Latest War on the Rocks episode was released https://warontherocks.com/2023/07/ukraine-struggles-to-scale-offensive-combat-operations/ Nothing really new, but reinforcing what we know in that Russian defenses planning/operations in the south are extremely capable and their assessment is that the only feasible way that Ukraine will overcome them is by having an effective force structure full of experienced officers and NCOs... Is it possible that Russia can stay on the strategic defensive indefinitely? Because I do not know how long or how many men Ukraine can throw at these fortifications, but Russia is getting really good at building trenches and placing countless amounts of mines everywhere.
|
|
#
¿
Jul 21, 2023 06:01
|
|
|
fatherboxx posted:Has anyone seen any analysis or does anyone have a take on why combat helicopters are not a subject of any weapon supply talks? Russia successfully utilizes KA-52s and it is another point of arms disparity between Ukraine and Russia. Per German sources (this was before the counter-offensive) it was stated that Ukraine simply did not need more transport helicopters and attack helicopters would be to vulnerable. Hopefully that view has changed. Nosre posted:I can't imagine there's much of any military target in Reni, so this is 100% the next step of them targeting food infrastructure, right? It seems Russia is just poking Ukraine (and anyone who trades with them) in the eye by attacking food infrastructure. I do not foresee them continuing such attacks, giving other priority targets.
|
|
#
¿
Jul 24, 2023 12:49
|
|
|
If it is 'the' main thrust we could expect to see results rather soon (few days time). I hope they are correct in the assessment that Russians there are not being rotated out, as that would mean a lack of reserves in a critical area.
|
|
#
¿
Jul 27, 2023 07:05
|
|
|
For anyone interested in part how/why Russia is what it is today I would highly recommend Trauma Zone documentary by the BBC. https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLGDByvdY5CHX_BTvG2X4vPrQfgqlSwSy5
|
|
#
¿
Jul 31, 2023 08:44
|
|
|
While there is a lot of that it is a long series and in parts focuses on the manufacturing/economic sectors which are quite interesting in particular if you compare that to what is happening in many western countries. I do think the docu can give someone who is not familiar with the many nuances of the Soviet/Russian economy some insight, and shows how the grift/corruption infects the entire society from the top down.
Dick Ripple fucked around with this message at 11:54 on Jul 31, 2023 |
|
#
¿
Jul 31, 2023 10:34
|
|
|
Crosby B. Alfred posted:May you expand upon this in more detail? Are we saying that if the 2023 Ukrainian Counter Offensive fails then the next stage of the war is to see if Russia can take back territory? Why wouldn't Ukraine try to push in the winter too? Continuing or launching another offensive in Winter is not out of the question for Ukraine, but it will depend on large part of what their artillery stockpile looks like. In that they have to have enough in stock to actually have an effect on offensive operations and possible Russian offensives. Not to mention the condition of their reserves and being able to properly rotate troops. There are times when you can push your forces, but you do not want to get to a point where you break them. It is also not out of the question that Russian simply continues to dig in if they believe their forces are unable to push or break up Ukrainian lines, and only launches localized attacks/probes throughout the winter. I do not think either side has the manpower/material to continue major offensive operations for several years, at which point we are looking at the situation becoming static.
|
|
#
¿
Aug 3, 2023 07:15
|
|
|
The Soviets built large stockpiles of artillery munitions, and as of today it is reported they can produce up to 20,000 a month. However, Russian soldiers and most notably Prigozhin have reported at least local shortages of artillery. Whether that is because they are running out or the diffilculty that it is for them to build up large enough stockpiles close to the front. In regards to the headlines, Russian media does what the Kremlin tells them, and it seems they do not like their shortcomings advertised to the world. In contrast, here in the Western world we often find getting media attention as a solution to solving problems. It seems to be working, as the US and other NATO partners have pledged or are already increasing production. Though not at the rate Ukraine would like. There is also the question of the quality/state of those old Soviet stockpiles, as we saw many pictures from 2022 of crates of shells in very poor condition. Dick Ripple fucked around with this message at 08:04 on Aug 8, 2023 |
|
#
¿
Aug 8, 2023 08:01
|
|
|
NATO never intended to get into a multi year long artillery duel with the Russians/Soviets either. Though maybe with nuclear artillery rounds.
|
|
#
¿
Aug 8, 2023 10:20
|
|
|
Do optic plants usually contain explosive material? Because an explosion that size looks like something most drones would struggle to carry.
|
|
#
¿
Aug 9, 2023 09:12
|
|
|
|
| # ¿ May 18, 2024 00:14 |
|
|
Cpt_Obvious posted:This is not how you convince the Russian public that the war is not worth fighting. How should one go about doing that then?
|
|
#
¿
Aug 9, 2023 13:51
|
|