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PT6A
Jan 5, 2006

Public school teachers are callous dictators who won't lift a finger to stop children from peeing in my plane

Baronjutter posted:

Because I live in reality where numbers and actual policy results are more important than vibes. Because I want people to be housed more than I want to stick it to developers.

Well, I for one am sickened by the thought that someone could make money while providing a necessary service. Best we not have that necessary service at all, lest capitalism taint the results.

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Guest2553
Aug 3, 2012


PT6A posted:

Well, I for one am sickened by the thought that someone could make money while providing a necessary service. Best we not have that necessary service at all, lest capitalism taint the results.

:yeah:

Our entire society, economy, and limits of acceptable philosophical thought are apparently bounded by capitalism tenets. Better things won't be possible until we can break through that wall.

Sometimes I get why accelerationism is so appealing to so many.

RBC
Nov 23, 2007

IM STILL SPENDING MONEY FROM 1888

Baronjutter posted:

Because I live in reality where numbers and actual policy results are more important than vibes. Because I want people to be housed more than I want to stick it to developers.

Nothing you wrote would help that.

Health Services
Feb 27, 2009
Perhaps you missed this paragraph?

Baronjutter posted:

If we want bigger units we need to stop treating floor space and housing like pollution to be minimized. A great strategy would be to let extra bedrooms ignore floor space restrictions. So a project that would cap out at 200 1br units can suddenly build 200 2br units, because that extra 120sqft per unit is "free" when it comes to the maximum floor space.

There's clearly been policies identified that restrict and prevent marginal increases in both unit count and unit size, and alternatives proposed.

Hubbert
Mar 25, 2007

At a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act.
so who in this thread works in real estate development

just want to know who isn't vibes-based posting

RBC
Nov 23, 2007

IM STILL SPENDING MONEY FROM 1888
I'd rather live on vibes than suck the dicks of real estate billionaires on a dead comedy forum.

Hubbert
Mar 25, 2007

At a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act.

RBC posted:

I'd rather live on vibes than suck the dicks of real estate billionaires on a dead comedy forum.

same

Hubbert
Mar 25, 2007

At a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act.
oh right i forgot to mention, thread favourite (inclusionary zoning) got introduced to the b.c. legislature a couple of weeks ago: https://news.gov.bc.ca/releases/2024HOUS0049-000471

Femtosecond
Aug 2, 2003

Baronjutter posted:

Bedrooms are the cheapest room to create, kitchens and bathrooms the most expensive. Two 500sqft 1br units costs way more to build than one 1000sqft 3br unit. But because it costs more, it also means it can be sold for more. So if the city says your new building can only have 10,000sqft of space, you're throwing money away by building fewer bigger units rather than as many tiny units as you can fit. They sell for more per sqft. And again it comes back to the floor space restrictions, because cities also like to make sure to limit how much floor space people can build to make sure builders aren't making too much profit, which is bad. It's always a negotiation where the city says you can only build 5,000 sqft, the builder says they want 10,000 sqft for their project. The city then spends a year looking into it at great expenses and planning comes back with a report saying that given current market conditions and construction costs, technically a developer might be able to barely eke out a profit with a 8,000 sqft project, so that will be the maximum they allow. Then they spend another year doing more red tape, during which time construction costs and interest rates go up and now the project doesn't pencil anymore and doesn't get built. But, the community was saved from the horrors of floor space.

The other thing about two beds and three beds is that because they're so much more expensive than a tiny 500 sqft apt, relatively few people can buy them and they take a lot longer to sell. And this is problematic because bank financing means and even provincial rules (!!!) mandate that you need to sell a certain amount of units before you can start construction. So this means that it's actually so risky to sell slow to sell, expensive large units that it could sink your entire building. So developers are selling the tiny stuff that moves quickly because it's too financially risky to do otherwise.

There was actually an article about this today.

quote:

Homebuyers Shun New Real Estate in Vancouver, Hurting Builders
Politicians are desperate for developers in Vancouver to build more homes to alleviate pressure in one of the continent’s most expensive real estate markets. There’s just one problem — not enough buyers are showing up.

(Bloomberg) — Politicians are desperate for developers in Vancouver to build more homes to alleviate pressure in one of the continent’s most expensive real estate markets. There’s just one problem — not enough buyers are showing up.

With mortgage rates still near their highest levels in more than a decade, some condo developers are struggling to generate enough early interest in projects to get them built. Homebuilders in the province of British Columbia are constantly against the clock: it has a law that gives them just 12 months to market their projects, collect enough deposits and secure the financing to build.

They can ask for more time — but at that point, consumers may also be able to ask for their money back. Developers have begun lobbying the provincial government to relax the rules to allow them more time to sell. And it’s become common for Vancouver builders to apply for extensions to the city’s deadlines on approved projects.

New home sales dipped 20% in metro Vancouver last year, while inventories have climbed in recent months. New concrete condominiums jumped to 6,672 in the fourth quarter — up about a third from the previous quarter, according to the Urban Development Institute, an industry association. Unsold wood-frame condos were up 12% on the quarter, and 45% more than the prior year.

Banks typically ask developers to amass sale contracts that would cover 70% or more of the loan amount for a high-rise tower, unless the company can provide additional security.

“A lot of groups are not meeting that pre-sale test,” Beau Jarvis, chief executive officer of Wesgroup Properties LP, said during a real estate event in Vancouver this month. “You’ve seen a couple of cancellations, where people are giving deposits back to purchasers.” The 12-month time limit “is perhaps starting to impede the development of housing,” he added.

Anne McMullin, president of the UDI, said her group has been pushing the government in informal discussions to lengthen the timelines for selling planned new construction. It’s more than just interest rates at play. Condo projects are becoming larger and more complex, she said — partly a consequence of a push by governments and builders for greater housing density.

It’s a particularly pressing issue in Vancouver, arguably Canada’s most beautiful large city but also the epicenter of its housing crisis. There’s a scarcity of developable land, thanks in part to its natural features — mountains to the north, ocean to the west. It’s Canada’s priciest major city for homebuyers, with a benchmark price of C$1.2 million (about $875,000).

“It’s never been as expensive to own a home anywhere, anytime in Canada as it was in Vancouver in the fourth quarter,” Robert Hogue, assistant chief economist at Royal Bank of Canada, wrote in a recent report.

Renting is also a nightmare for many, with vacancy rates below 1%. The average rent increase for two-bedroom apartments that turned over to new tenants was 34% in Vancouver, last year, according to data from Canada Mortgage & Housing Corp.

A planned 24-story project in Burnaby, a Vancouver suburb, was seemingly abandoned last July, with the developer citing “market conditions.” A 400-unit condo project in Richmond was paused, and deposits returned, in May, according to local publication Richmond News.

The BC Financial Services Authority, which enforces the Real Estate Development Marketing Act, or REDMA, said it’s aware that the condo-marketing rules are an issue for the homebuilding industry.

“BCFSA is continuing to discuss early marketing with the development community so that any policy changes might be considered,” a spokesperson said in an emailed statement.

AJ Delisle, RBC’s vice president of real estate in BC, told an audience in Vancouver that the REDMA time limit makes pre-sales difficult when compared to other cities like Canada’s biggest, Toronto, where developers can market properties for years before construction finally begins.

“We are seeing quite a lot of requests coming in to the bank saying: ‘Hey AJ, we can’t meet our pre-sale requirement. What can we do to rejig the loan so that we can qualify, hit our REDMA deadline and get the loan done? And then we’ll keep selling after.’”

“That happens almost on every single deal right now.”


Baronjutter posted:

The other reason we get so many tiny 1br units is something a lot of boomers and trad folks refuse to accept: society has changed. We have more 1 person households than any time in history. There is a massive demand for these sized units because there's a massive amount of 1 or 2 person households where a single bedroom is fine for them. And when the 1br unit is 500k and the 2br unit is 700k, it doesn't really matter what people *want* its what people can afford.

This is kind of the main thing really. Why are there so many 1 beds? It's because they're in incredible demand. At some point it would be possible for developers to build too many 1 beds such that single people would be pretty satisfied and there would be more demand for larger units, but given the constraints on construction, we're nowhere near that. Therefore developers keep trying to meet the demand for 1 bedroom apartments, and everyone who needs a 2 bed or more is stuck having to compete with single people for the same product.

Hubbert posted:

so who in this thread works in real estate development

just want to know who isn't vibes-based posting

tbh I kind of feel like after posting about housing in this thread for fuckin years and years I could probably walk into some job at a development company and fake it for a fair while.

Femtosecond
Aug 2, 2003

Hubbert posted:

oh right i forgot to mention, thread favourite (inclusionary zoning) got introduced to the b.c. legislature a couple of weeks ago: https://news.gov.bc.ca/releases/2024HOUS0049-000471

Still a developing story but saw some tweets about this today that Vancouver is practically bending over backward to protect various neighbourhoods from this. City staff arguing that it doesn't need to apply to like giant parts of RT zoned East Van. Unsure if they're actually ideologically against this stuff or just like trying to spare themselves from the workload of having to change a bunch of poo poo by June.

edit:

https://x.com/pwaldkirch/status/1783561056079470858

Femtosecond fucked around with this message at 03:26 on Apr 26, 2024

Hubbert
Mar 25, 2007

At a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act.

Femtosecond posted:

Still a developing story but saw some tweets about this today that Vancouver is practically bending over backward to protect various neighbourhoods from this. City staff arguing that it doesn't need to apply to like giant parts of RT zoned East Van. Unsure if they're actually ideologically against this stuff or just like trying to spare themselves from the workload of having to change a bunch of poo poo by June.

edit:

https://x.com/pwaldkirch/status/1783561056079470858

Through heritage preservation, these homes can be saved and the FAR can be varied.

It's entirely possible that it's a city trying to preserve enclaves.

It could also be a municipality attempting to set the new zoning rules to ensure that these will be an actual reason to save the heritage home.

Heritage has always been based upon the density carrot: save it, and you can build whatever you want.

Lead out in cuffs
Sep 18, 2012

"That's right. We've evolved."

"I can see that. Cool mutations."




Femtosecond posted:

The other thing about two beds and three beds is that because they're so much more expensive than a tiny 500 sqft apt, relatively few people can buy them and they take a lot longer to sell. And this is problematic because bank financing means and even provincial rules (!!!) mandate that you need to sell a certain amount of units before you can start construction. So this means that it's actually so risky to sell slow to sell, expensive large units that it could sink your entire building. So developers are selling the tiny stuff that moves quickly because it's too financially risky to do otherwise.

There was actually an article about this today.

Yeah there's kind of a fundamental problem that real estate prices alone don't really convey: even building the shittiest, tiniest condos, and even selling at the current vastly distorted prices, it is borderline impossible to actually make the financials work. And that's a function of land, labour and materials costs.

Never mind trying to build housing that people actually want to live in, or at a price that actually matches incomes. And don't even think about trying to do both.

And I don't really see a way out of that without something on the scale of the Vienna model.

quote:

This is kind of the main thing really. Why are there so many 1 beds? It's because they're in incredible demand. At some point it would be possible for developers to build too many 1 beds such that single people would be pretty satisfied and there would be more demand for larger units, but given the constraints on construction, we're nowhere near that. Therefore developers keep trying to meet the demand for 1 bedroom apartments, and everyone who needs a 2 bed or more is stuck having to compete with single people for the same product.

tbh I kind of feel like after posting about housing in this thread for fuckin years and years I could probably walk into some job at a development company and fake it for a fair while.

I mean, some of this is people who genuinely want one bedrooms, but a lot of it is that it's all they can afford, and they're desperate to stop renting / start climbing the "property ladder". And in the past, it's paid off. A lot of people buying townhouses or actual SFH are using gains from a condo that doubled or tripled in value to bring the price into a range they can afford. The problem is that now, instead of 20-something professionals buying 1BRs, it's 30-something families trying to cram two adults, an infant and a dog into that space, because there is nothing else they can afford.

golden bubble
Jun 3, 2011

yospos

https://x.com/moreneighbours/status/1783167915073651171

MickeyFinn
May 8, 2007
Biggie Smalls and Junior Mafia some mark ass bitches

There is a whole corner in the lower right completely empty. Why do you have to build here? When you can force developers to stop sitting on that space, driving up prices?

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Femtosecond
Aug 2, 2003

Hubbert posted:

Through heritage preservation, these homes can be saved and the FAR can be varied.

It's entirely possible that it's a city trying to preserve enclaves.

It could also be a municipality attempting to set the new zoning rules to ensure that these will be an actual reason to save the heritage home.

Heritage has always been based upon the density carrot: save it, and you can build whatever you want.

Yea it's early days so we'll see.

It would be good it is more the carrot approach of enabling reasonable density and granting significant bonuses if the historic structure is retained.

With the mansion lots as big as they are in Shaughnessy they could absolutely put some apartments in some of these spaces.

Up until this point the approach of Vancouver has been more stick, downzoning properties unless you keep the existing structure.

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