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Meta Ridley posted:What makes you think she'd be re-elected? The fresh vagina smell will wear off in the oval office by then and boomers won't care that she is a woman in 2020. Progressives lose 8 years at the Presidency with Clinton because it would be Clinton for 4, GOP for 4. Not because it would be Clinton for 8 I think she is quite likely to be reelected if she stays on obamas trajectory of competent enough blandness and the GOP stay on their current trajectory of becoming more and more insane and unelectable as time goes on. if trump gets the nomination this time around there won't even be a trump-like figure in 2020
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Mar 31, 2016 07:50
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Farm Frenzy posted:I think she is quite likely to be reelected if she stays on obamas trajectory of competent enough blandness and the GOP stay on their current trajectory of becoming more and more insane and unelectable as time goes on. if trump gets the nomination this time around there won't even be a trump-like figure in 2020 Trump is a huge gift to her. He has enthusiastic support among uneducated white men but not much else going for him. Almost all his victories have been pluralities even this late in the primary season and polls in swing states typically show Hillary demolishing him. If a bland politician like Kasich or Romney was the GOP candidate this year, Hillary would be in trouble and even states like Michigan would be in play. I think the biggest lesson the GOP is going to learn this year is to rig their primary as effectively as the Democrats do, so I agree there will be no Trump figure in 2020. But that also hurts Hillary's chances, the best she can hope for is a tea party crazy like Cruz, who would still be harder to beat than Trump. It will mostly come down to the economy though. She is benefitting right now because people fondly remember Bill Clinton as President during a time of economic prosperity. "I don't care about Hillary but I want to see Bill in the White House again" is the second biggest reason for her support, behind her vagina. These voters are expecting the economy to improve to the point they are comparable to the 90's Internet boom, which is an absurd expectation that will not be met. Indications point toward another recession soon, which I think is unavoidable at this point even if my preferred socialist-lite candidate was President. If voters aren't feeling good about the economy by 2020, she will be toast.
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Mar 31, 2016 08:24
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At least she makes dynamite beans
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Mar 31, 2016 15:07
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Meta Ridley posted:Trump is a huge gift to her. He has enthusiastic support among uneducated white men but not much else going for him. Almost all his victories have been pluralities even this late in the primary season and polls in swing states typically show Hillary demolishing him. If a bland politician like Kasich or Romney was the GOP candidate this year, Hillary would be in trouble and even states like Michigan would be in play. What indications are pointing to another recession?
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Mar 31, 2016 15:28
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Drone strikes. So many drones.
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Apr 7, 2016 09:50
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Vladimir Putin posted:What indications are pointing to another recession? Not enough demand for the goods produced, long story short. Median wage 4 percent lower than in 2000, job participation at a 40 year low, as the money in our country concentrates with the people who already have plenty, the velocity of the money in our economy decreases. It''s like a snowball effect. Young people having trouble getting jobs that give them money to spend, they increasingly stay at home with their parents or maintain rental property with their friends instead of buying homes, they are having less kids which is less money for all relevant industries, same with less likely to marry. Exports aren't gonna make up for it. Japan is a mess, European countries are practicing austerity, and China's growth is slow pretty quickly. India won't make up for it because their growth, like ours, sees the new money in the hands of the wealthy instead of creating a middle class. Once you start seeing business investment begin to slow down in a meaningful way, that is when you will know for sure we are coming dangerously close to recession. I am expecting it to happen, as are many others including coworkers and professors. That is why super intelligent sharks like Asher Edelman say they think Bernie is the best choice, and Thomas Piketty says the same. Won't be as bad as 2008, but that is not saying a lot. Fwiw, California housing bubble will pop soon, so if you wanted to live there start saving your money cuz property is about to go down in the next 5 or so years. I think a lot of people don't realize that extreme income inequality isn't just a moral issue, but an economic one. It is a dangerous game to play.
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Apr 7, 2016 10:12
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