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I always enjoy CineD deep dives into the film industry, so I'm hoping we can have a chat about release dates. I noticed in some threads, goons were marveling that Studio X would release Film X when Studio Y was going to release Film Y the same weekend. I've also noticed a lot of film news chatter about how this or that film crushed a similar film open weekend and that bodes poorly for the loser. So here's my query: As someone who loves movies, I'll go see any movies I'm interested in the theater generally. Maybe I go to one on this weekend and one the next, but if it looks cool, I'll get to it. My assumption would be that this holds for animated movies for kids or big dumb summer blockbusters or the horror or rom-com du jour, that most people will do the same. Like, so what if Transformers 9: Optimus Rhyme goes up against Independence Day 3: Earf Defense Force? Won't anyone who wants to see both see both? Is the assumption that the average movie goer will only see one movie every 4-8 weeks? That can't be true can it? If you work in the industry, is this something that's actually a big deal? Can a film die on the vine because it was released on the wrong weekend? Have there been any films that have "unfairly" flopped because of release date and not because they're dumpster trash? That Dang Dad fucked around with this message at 19:14 on Jun 23, 2016 |
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Jun 23, 2016 19:00
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A lot of people don't have enough disposable income to feel comfortable with doing what you suggest, hope this helps
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Jun 23, 2016 19:15
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Yup. For others, going to movies is just a thing to do. They roll up to the theater and see whatever is playing in the next few minutes. If Star Wars 10 is starting in the next 5 minutes, they'll go see that. If Independence Day: Independence Harder is starting instead, they'll see that. So for studios, it's definitely important for their movie to be the big movie premiering that weekend so it's on more screens and in theory, will be most seen that weekend.
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Jun 23, 2016 19:19
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Jenny Angel posted:A lot of people don't have enough disposable income to feel comfortable with doing what you suggest, hope this helps Well yes, I recognize the existence of the poor, having been there myself at times. I also know that seeing movies is on the cheaper side of diversions that people of nearly all socioeconomic statuses can share, especially with matinees and whatnot. I guess my question is more in the aggregate, does release weekend really matter? Aggregated over 300,000,000 Americans (for example), does this or that weekend going up against this or that movie really make a difference to a studio's bottom line? I'm prepared for the answer to be Yes from a data standpoint, I'm just curious how that comes to be.
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Jun 23, 2016 19:22
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Jose Oquendo posted:Yup. For others, going to movies is just a thing to do. They roll up to the theater and see whatever is playing in the next few minutes. If Star Wars 10 is starting in the next 5 minutes, they'll go see that. If Independence Day: Independence Harder is starting instead, they'll see that. So for studios, it's definitely important for their movie to be the big movie premiering that weekend so it's on more screens and in theory, will be most seen that weekend. This is really the answer your looking for, I don't think it has much to do with disposable income. Many people just casually choose whatever movie happens to be out that weekend, and if you put your movie out at the same time as a Star Wars or a Mission Impossible or an Avengers, youre guaranteed to sell 0 tickets to that kind of moviegoer. And those people represent a significant percentage of the movie going public, getting them to see your movie is the difference between success and failure.
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Jun 23, 2016 19:32
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Whether or not it's down to disposable income, level of interest, convenience of getting to a theater vs. other entertainment options, or whatever other factor,Anal Surgery posted:Is the assumption that the average movie goer will only see one movie every 4-8 weeks? That can't be true can it? The data here is a few years out of date, but less often, actually
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Jun 23, 2016 19:37
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There are definitely a lot of people who will see 1-2 movies in a theatre per year, whichever movie becomes The One for that year will get the majority of these people's money and that's the key to making a billion dollars.
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Jun 23, 2016 19:42
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Anal Surgery posted:Won't anyone who wants to see both see both? Is the assumption that the average movie goer will only see one movie every 4-8 weeks? That can't be true can it? According to the latest statistics on the subject I could find from the MPAA, the number of average tickets sold per person in the US/Canada was 3.8 in 2015. In other words, the average person in those countries goes to the cinema less than four times a year. Obviously, that's not the whole story since certain age demographics are much more frequent filmgoers than others, but it does indicate that people like you who go and see everything that sounds interesting are the exception, rather than the rule. Edit: Jenny Angel posted:The data here is a few years out of date, but less often, actually Your link isn't working for me. 
Samuel Clemens fucked around with this message at 19:46 on Jun 23, 2016 |
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Jun 23, 2016 19:44
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Jenny Angel posted:
Holy poo poo! Samuel Clemens posted:According to the latest statistics on the subject I could find from the MPAA, the number of average tickets sold per person in the US/Canada was 3.8 in 2015. In other words, the average person in those countries goes to the cinema less than four times a year. Double Holy poo poo! Alright, well the answer to my original question is far simpler than I thought. It seems weird though because it feels like more than 3-4 "big success" movies come out every year, so doesn't that kind of mean entirely different audiences are propelling one movie to success versus another? Meaning, an audience that made Deadpool a success could be composed of all unique moviegoers compared to the audience that propelled Civil War to success (bad example given the genre, but you know what I mean). I'm starting to understand the great gobs of cash that go into movie marketing better. That Dang Dad fucked around with this message at 19:53 on Jun 23, 2016 |
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Jun 23, 2016 19:46
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This suggests you and people like you are "frequent" movie goers that makes up 13% of all viewers but 57% of all ticket sales. So the vast majority of people simply don't see that many movies (another study like the one above said the typical American sees 5 a year); if a given American only sees a movie every two or three months, in the situation you propose I'd extrapolate that they will pick one and not see the other.
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Jun 23, 2016 19:49
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Yeah, I think it's a combination of what we've all been saying so far. Why do people not just see make plans to everything that interests them? Because a lot of people go to the theater without a set movie in mind and pick whatever sounds the most interesting. Why don't they just come back next weekend to see the one that sounded second most interesting? Because they only go to the movies every 2-3 months Even if someone hears about a movie and thinks it sounds like a good time, there are all sorts of reasons they'd file it under "Nice, I'll catch that when it arrives on Netflix" or whatnot
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Jun 23, 2016 19:50
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Lotish posted:This suggests you and people like you are "frequent" movie goers that makes up 13% of all viewers but 57% of all ticket sales. So the vast majority of people simply don't see that many movies (another study like the one above said the typical American sees 5 a year); if a given American only sees a movie every two or three months, in the situation you propose I'd extrapolate that they will pick one and not see the other. Here's how out of touch I am: I thought I was INfrequent because I only see one movie a month on average.
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Jun 23, 2016 19:55
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Yeah. I guess as a typical American viewer, going to a movie is something that half the time I do for special occasions, like finishing a project or part of celebrating a birthday, and the other half because I've been solidly sold on a movie in advance and decided I would set the time aside. There are lots of movies I think "Oh that looks nice, I'm sure that would be good" but are not well timed or compelling enough to actually get me to visit the theater.
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Jun 23, 2016 19:56
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Anal Surgery posted:Here's how out of touch I am: I thought I was INfrequent because I only see one movie a month on average. I mean to be fair to you, the prevalence of streaming options, Redbox, etc. means that a lot of people see many more movies than those 4-5 a year figures immediately suggest. So it's reasonable to get the impression that because folks you talk to tend to be decently informed about recent movies, they're going to the theater more often than they are
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Jun 23, 2016 19:59
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Jenny Angel posted:I mean to be fair to you, the prevalence of streaming options, Redbox, etc. means that a lot of people see many more movies than those 4-5 a year figures immediately suggest. So it's reasonable to get the impression that because folks you talk to tend to be decently informed about recent movies, they're going to the theater more often than they are Good point. Everyone I talk to seems "literate" about mainstream movies, so I guess I just assumed they saw them in the theater. And in fact, I don't see most summer blockbusters or "big dumb action movies" (except for Fast & Furious movies  ), so I always feel like everyone has even seen MORE movies than me. This thread is opening a whole new world for me. Things are gonna be different for me now, I can feel it.
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Jun 23, 2016 20:03
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Honestly, I often enjoy reading and watching criticism and discussion of movies more than seeing the movies myself, because I can do either of those any time and don't have to set any time aside.
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Jun 23, 2016 20:06
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Anal Surgery posted:This thread is opening a whole new world for me. Things are gonna be different for me now, I can feel it. 
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Jun 24, 2016 01:08
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I turned into an obnoxious cinephile when I was like, fourteen so it's been a while since I was a gross normie but yeah most people are just like "well I'm bored let's go eat dinner at Applebees and then see whatever's on" and then they sit there, digesting, feeling pleased if the movie is appealing and vaguely upset if it's not.
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Jun 24, 2016 01:49
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what modern movies really compete with, is me.
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Jun 24, 2016 01:52
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The idea of just wandering up to a theater and randomly seeing something based on what's playing is a completely alien concept to me. Are you... are you just really hoping there will be something you are interested in?  Of course given those attendance numbers earlier in the thread I'm at whatever tier is above "extremely frequent." This weekend is Free State of Jones Friday, Shallows Saturday, and Independence Day Sunday! I'm hoping for 2 out of 3 good and I have a sneaking suspicion about which two it might be! The AMC $5 weekend matinee kicks rear end.
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Jun 24, 2016 02:10
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JonathonSpectre posted:Are you... are you just really hoping there will be something you are interested in? I mean by your own admission, if you did exactly this, you'd find three such movies this weekend
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Jun 24, 2016 02:12
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JonathonSpectre posted:The idea of just wandering up to a theater and randomly seeing something based on what's playing is a completely alien concept to me. Are you... are you just really hoping there will be something you are interested in? In my experience, those people aren't terribly picky. Say your house is being painted and you just want to get away from the smell, sure Mr. Holmes looks okay let's do it
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Jun 24, 2016 02:51
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I think the important thing is that a lot of people decide to go to the movies first; which movie to actually see comes second. So maybe they show up to the theatre having already decided what to see, but the point is they were going no matter what.
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Jun 24, 2016 02:55
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Looper posted:In my experience, those people aren't terribly picky. Say your house is being painted and you just want to get away from the smell, sure Mr. Holmes looks okay let's do it The one time a friend and I were in a situation like that we ended up watching... the Stepford Wives.
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Jun 24, 2016 04:24
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There are very few movies I can't just wait a while to see, since most movies come out in a matter of a few months now. Most of the time there isn't much that you have to go out to see that a home theater can't replicate. I usually go out to see movies where the wide consensus is that it somehow needs to be seen on a big screen due to some sort of specific effect, or an indie that needs more support, or a certain director I really like, etc. Otherwise I can generally wait for home release or Netflix to get a hold of it. But if it's a choice between several, I'll likely only go out to see one unless I have free passes. For example, the last three films I've seen in theaters were the new Star Wars, The Witch, and Green Room, and I had passes for Star Wars. As far as blockbusters go, I think I've seen every MCU film but most I haven't seen in the theater and waited for home release. But as for my point about specific effects, I'll probably see Doctor Strange in theaters because I heard everything is 2D except for the magic effects which are in 3D, and that sounds cool as hell.
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Jun 24, 2016 05:10
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Wait, you spend the whole movie wearing 3D glasses on the off chance that someone might do a magic trick?
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Jun 24, 2016 06:22
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The other interesting angle I was reading about was the negotiated rates for how much studios or theaters get each week for first run films. http://entertainment.howstuffworks.com/movie-distribution2.htm quote:Consider this example. Theater A is negotiating with Distributor B over a new movie. The theater has figured that expenses, the nut, are about $4,500 per week. The net percentage to go to the distributor is set at 95 percent for the first two weeks, 90 percent for week three and 85 percent for the final week. The gross percentage to go to the distributor is set at 70 percent for the first two weeks, 60 percent for week three and 50 percent for the final week. So it sounds like even if a studio can get you into a theater twice in a month, it's financially better for them if you see THEIR movie on the 1st and someone else's on the 30th. I wonder how the math works out on films that have word-of-mouth legs in the theater. Like, how much long tail word-of-mouth do you have to generate for a last place July 1st release for the studio to get them same dollar benefit as that film having been #1 that weekend instead. Between film criticism and film economics, it's me: I'm the one who takes all the fun out of film. 
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Jun 24, 2016 12:33
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I like watching movies, if anything rifftrax/mst3k taught me to look for the funny stuff in movies. Things like a 10 minute establishing shot or for Manos the Hands of Fate, the 1 hour establishing shot.
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Jun 24, 2016 18:19
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Going to a theater requires an active decision to get up, get dressed, drive to a theater, buy tickets and then spend 2-3 hours in the theater. In other words, its an event and people are lazy. We've got so many other entertainment options available to us and many of them don't even require us to leave our homes. Going to the theater is very often going out of your way.
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Jun 24, 2016 20:21
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I love movies, see tons of them all the time. I think I actually go to the theaters 2 or 3 times a year, and usually at least one of those times it's to see a movie one of my kids wants to see. It does cost a good amount to see a movie when you're paying for a family (hell, even the cost for me and my wife is more than the cost of a brand new bluray). When I was a teenager I went to the movie so many times, but I had so much more time as well. Now I just don't have the time to go to the theater, get there early to get a good seat, watch 15 minutes of trailers, and then drive home. I'd much rather put a movie in the player and my commitment time is the length of the film.
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Jun 24, 2016 20:26
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Anal Surgery posted:Is the assumption that the average movie goer will only see one movie every 4-8 weeks? That can't be true can it? On average, the American moviegoer sees a little less than 6 films in a theater per year, according to MPAA's own statistics. Hollywood films are constructed with the aim of being one of those 6.
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Jun 24, 2016 20:35
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ComposerGuy posted:Going to a theater requires an active decision to get up, get dressed, drive to a theater, buy tickets and then spend 2-3 hours in the theater. Its fun! I love sitting in the front row!
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Jun 24, 2016 20:36
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I'm one of those people that can't sit next to loud conversations without them getting stuck in my head, and here are snippets of a conversation I overheard today: "So we could see a movie or something. I'm fine ... I can stay out till midnight." "Let's see if it's somewhere around. " There is a multi-screen theater about 200 feet from this cafe, although in all honesty it is kind of easy to not notice. "Is this the third Purge? It seems like there have been a lot of them." "It's such a great concept... but kind of a lovely movie." "I liked the first one. The second one not so much." "I think it literally came out, like, just today. Or this week." "Wait Will Smith isn't in it? He's like the most important character!" "Robert Downey Jr. does the best blackface. Ever." "What about ... and she's like a surfer or something..." "Have you seen the commercials though? The shark in it looks like the worst CGI." "Did it come out yet or not?" "The Shallows? I don't know. I don't actually know anything about it." "It'll be kind of funny a little bit." I'm not sure if this was still The Shallows or something else. "Really? You don't like Hot Pockets?"
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Jun 25, 2016 06:15
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Kangra posted:
WHAT loving HELLSCAPE ARE YOU HANGING OUT IN
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Jun 26, 2016 02:45
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I like movies and I think I've been to the theater maybe five times this year (Boring list)Hail Caesar, Zootopia, Deadpool, Popstar, The Neon Demon
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Jun 26, 2016 04:09
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Man...I guess I'm the Ultra-Frequent film goer. I ended up going to the Alamo Drafthouse 3 times in the same week. (Took my dad to the Father's Day screening of The Good, the Bad and the Ugly, caught the preview night of The Neon Demon, and then went to the Independence Day double feature) And I'm tempted to go see Finding Dory today or tomorrow too.
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Jun 26, 2016 12:43
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Kangra posted:I'm one of those people that can't sit next to loud conversations without them getting stuck in my head, and here are snippets of a conversation I overheard today: How are any of these different from average CineD post?
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Jun 26, 2016 15:12
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Neo Rasa posted:How are any of these different from average CineD post? Neither of them said "nah", "owns", or "slavoj zizek".
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Jun 26, 2016 17:25
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I feel like I go to the movies more than anyone I know and I still rarely hit more than half of the movies playing at any time. Several hundred movies come out per year! Virtually no one will ever see every movie. Everyone makes their choices.
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Jun 27, 2016 01:25
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