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What happened? Explain to a lurker like I am 5?
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# ? Nov 15, 2021 14:05 |
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# ? Mar 29, 2024 11:32 |
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the first sigh was when the news all broke out from yesterday:gradenko_2000 posted:Philippine elections update: the second sigh was from this afternoon, when Rodrigo Duterte changes his mind (again) at the last minute, and files to run as a Senator, instead of for Vice President and so while Marcos still does have some competition from the Duterte faction in the form of Bong Go, Sara Duterte isn't going to be competing directly against her father. there's also SOME polling data that's out now: I could load this up with a bunch of caveats (candidate list is still wrong because of this weekend's chaos, it's a commissioned poll), but that would just be trying to "unskew the polls" and inhaling copium, so let's not do that. It's a huge uphill climb to beat these numbers. It's not impossible, but it's going to be very difficult to shift. [There's also some Senate and VP polling out, but that can wait for another post]
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# ? Nov 15, 2021 14:16 |
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drat that's a lot of drama. Is Bongbong really a favorite? His face has failson written all over him. How come the poll doesn't have Bongo? What's BB's China policy? Philippine only elect 12 senators at a time right? So a senator is still a very juicy job. Is Duterte going to take the senator seat from a pro-Duterte faction or anti-Duterte faction? stephenthinkpad fucked around with this message at 15:22 on Nov 15, 2021 |
# ? Nov 15, 2021 15:17 |
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stephenthinkpad posted:drat that's a lot of drama. 1. Bongbong Marcos has a really strong social media/word-of-mouth presence, both intersecting with Duterte as a fellow right-wing demagogue, and also crafted from years of promoting revisionist history. 2. Poll doesn't have Bong Go because it was conducted in late October, before all this reshuffling went on. 3. The general consensus is that Marcos is going to be "friendly" towards China, and friendly in quotation marks as a reference to how R Duterte is perceived as having completely rolled over for, and is a lapdog of, Xi Jinping. Here's some cited examples as to why people would think this: https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1492366/bongbong-parrots-duterte-on-west-ph-sea-we-dont-stand-a-chance-vs-china https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/10/20/21/chinese-envoy-fawns-over-marcos-jr I personally can't find a way to weigh in on the subject because China is a completely poisoned well in Philippine discourse. 4. Yes, the Philippines has 24 Senators total, and each Senator serves for six years, and half the Senate is elected every three years, alternating between the general election (i.e. concurrent with the Presidential election) and the midterms. There's really only like three or four oppositionists in the Senate right now that are up for re-election, and only one of them is polling high enough to look like they'll win re-election, so while a Senator Duterte might bump off a fellow pro-Duterte candidate, the Senate is still probably going to be majority conservative regardless.
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# ? Nov 15, 2021 16:03 |
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Very informative, thank you.
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# ? Nov 15, 2021 16:47 |
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My aunt has been exposed to some of that revisionism i think. At least in the vilification of Ninoy Aquino
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# ? Nov 15, 2021 19:06 |
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How exactly did the US plant the seeds of political kleptocracy in the Philippines during occupation? I know virtually nothing about the period and don't know where to start that's more informative than wikipedia.
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# ? Nov 15, 2021 19:19 |
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this is going to be an awfully oversimplified analogy, but you can sort of think of the Philippines as a country where the Vietnam War was won (among others) that is to say, the Hukbalahap, a guerrilla resistance force against the Japanese occupation, metamorphosed into the Huks, an orthodox M-L insurgency after 1945, and since the Philippines is an island chain and the Huks could not flee over the border into China to regroup the way the Viet Minh could, they were eventually crushed by succeeding Philippine presidents, with a final victory in 1954 lead by Ramon Magsaysay (with the usual vast amounts of US arms and CIA involvement, naturally) to wit, Ferdinand Marcos Sr did not ascend to the presidency on the back of a coup, as so many dictators did, but rather, he was elected President twice under the constitutional process, and simply overturned the liberal status quo before his second term was up that the Philippines is a "kleptocracy" has its roots in the extinguishing of the left and the restriction of the political spectrum to just conservatism and liberalism if you dig a little deeper than that, Spanish colonialism imposed a feudal social order on the islands for centuries, followed by about five minutes of independence under a 19th century nationalist movement, followed by half-a-century of American colonialism that simply replaced the Spanish order with one that taught folks to speak English, three years of military occupation under Imperial Japan, and then finally an American-style constitution imposed on us by American "liberators" there was never any real reckoning with the legacy of Spain, and the latent consequences of that are still felt today when one of the attack lines against the Liberal Party is the massacre of militant farmers at Hacienda Luisita - we still have haciendas in the Philippines!
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# ? Nov 16, 2021 09:32 |
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Well another twist in the election: Duterte's Daughter and Bongbong have announced that they're running together https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/duterte-daughter-joins-marcos-running-mate-philippines-presidential-election-2021-11-16/
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# ? Nov 17, 2021 00:00 |
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This week is the 17th anniversary of the Hacienda Luisita massacre, a strike action by peasant workers seeking for better working conditions from an oligarchical family that bought out a Spanish-era sugar plantation and then dodged agrarian reform and land redistribution efforts. The police dispersal of the strike ended in bloodshed, and it remains one of the most important moments of modern labor history in the country. Below is a short, 30-minute documentary about the event. Translated, the title reads, roughly, "In the Name of the Sugarcane". It's in Filipino, but with English subtitles. https://cinemata.org/view?m=JNqzQioOt
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# ? Nov 17, 2021 16:27 |
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# ? Mar 29, 2024 11:32 |
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...in face-to-face schooling.
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# ? Mar 6, 2022 05:59 |